Oil will be high for a while

[Plutomanian]

It's hard to move away from an infrastucture that's been established for decades. Oil (aka as Black Gold) has been the driving force of our society for a very long time. Transitioning into alternative energy sources, is a slow and steady process. We'll get there, but within the distant future.

I'd expect countries to make heavy use of nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal energy in the future. Oil will serve a lesser role in our society. It will only be  used for the making of plastics and other cosmetics. Not fuel or energy use. For now, the world is stuck with the US and Iran's little drama. We'll see how long this lasts.

Infrastructures established years ago wouldn't make any scamming point or grounds, they're legit but it's just our curiosity that will make one become very uncomfortable. We know oil is one of the most presented thing we can utilized for our own advantages, we know what's coming and how to bend our path and become very optimistic with the whole system. We can keep our eyes very open and know exactly what we want in the system, we have an effective industry and do everything within our reach to ensure we're having a good time.

[STT]

only 20% of the world's oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. What happened to the other 80%?

Its not a linear situation, not all oil is equal in its various attributes and calorific content.   Some oil comes with gas and has various positives or negatives.  Venezuela has the greatest amount but some of the worst quality or content that needs much refinement, sour vs sweet.  

  The issue as mentioned is refinement, raw crude you wouldn't want even if I tried to give it to you for free.  Last I was hearing there is an excess of crude potentially but a failure to supply all the various components of oil in demand globally.

  A growing world economy certainly needs more energy now and for sure in the future and that's before we consider aspects like AI.   Troubled as Hormuz strait might be, its a shipping lane and very useful transportation.  I've had shares in gas and oil firms that couldn't get funding to drill a known large resource because they are nowhere close to any possible means of transporting it in bulk, big gas reserves especially requires investment that will last longer then you exist its generational.

  Oil will be vital still in a hundred years like Coal peaked a century ago yet its vital in many countries and to many people still.

[pooya87]

.... and the largest oil fields in the world was just blown up (Saturday).

After Saudi-US coalition started bombardment of the residential areas in Sanaa, capital of Yemen to murder civilians, the armed forces of Yemen decided to hit the enemy even harder. One of the most painful retaliatory strikes was on the Ghawar Fields that is the largest known oil field in the world and the Saudi usurpers have been stealing its oil for a very long time to fund the Epstein Axis. This is more than half of the oil (I believe 60%) they steal from the al-Sharqiyah region. The global oil shortage is going to be increased even more because of the US regime's global destabilization policy.

P.S. By the way the market manipulation is getting even more fascinating every day when you look at the price that is still being reported as $104 on fake sites like oilprice.com

[Webutxo]

Yes, you have a very good point but right now I don't take anything that can replace crude oil, it is not only petrol and gas that we are gotten from it and right now we have billions of it reserve all over the world, for something or anything to replace crude oil i think it will not be in my generation because there are a lot of it which has not been touched, and I don't think it will finish during my lifetime.

There are a lot of things that oil can do, but all the things he is mentioning cannot meet up the requirement at this moment, not that there's no replacement for energy but the durability is usually why all those things are still not put in place. Right now we don't have any option rather than to adapt with the current situation.

The world can't move away from oil and gas or maybe we can reduce the use but we can't run away from hydrocarbons, there plenty of products that are gotten from crude oil and we slll depend on them to leave well. How are plastics going to be made available without crude oil. The hospital materials more than half in the hospitals are made from crude oil, you can imagine the damage it will cause to the world if this thing suddenly reduced.

The war has its consequences and that's what we are getting, we are seeing much of gasoline and diesels because those are the one that we used every day for transportation but there are more to what is been discussed about oil and it's market. If US knew this is going to cause problem for the world and price of oil will be this expensive, they would have warn Isreal not to engage from the beginning, now we are all seeing the effects and trying to manipulate Iran to be the problem.

[NeuroticFish]

that Russia has agreed to supply 300k ton of diesel to America and Global market this month and 500k ton next month. Assuming this is not a lie

What kind of assumption is this?
I mean, Russia asked everybody they could to sell them back oil - especially refined - because they no longer have enough for their own war.
There's already quite a scandal because South Korea has sent (most probably not for cheap) some oil to Russia.

I've read some numbers on X that in order to send any oil to USA, Russia would have to buy it at about twice the price they'll get for selling it.


So I'd say that Putin did his usual: just said the words Trump wanted to hear. From words to things to happen there's a loooong way.

[pooya87]

So I'd say that Putin did his usual: just said the words Trump wanted to hear. From words to things to happen there's a loooong way.

You are most probably right

But I still would like to point some stuff out.
The fuel the Guardian claims was sent to Russia by South Korea is sent to Vladivostok
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Vladivostok,+Primorsky+Krai,+Russia/@56.6897501,87.0265615,3z/
The name of the destination and looking at the map zoomed out like this, clarifies a lot.

You see, Vladivostok is just too far away and it doesn't matter if Russia has a surplus or a shortage of fuel, it still costs a ton of money to ship fuel (and other stuff) all the way to far east to get to a place as far as Vladivostok. And the nearby production in "Komsomolsk and Khabarovsk refineries" (that's what I found) doesn't seem to match the demand in the region (satisfies half I think).
So it is more sensible and cheaper to import it from somewhere else that is nearby like South Korea, China, Japan, etc. So this could be a regular thing!

In other words the piece in The Guardian seems more like clickbait propaganda not an indication of anything

[Conqueror777]

No one knows for how long this war can go on. It can be weeks or months. But a lot of people seem to think that once the war ends, everything will go back to normal. That is not the case. Oil prices are going up now and for every day that companies struggle to operate, the closer they are to bankruptcy. Maybe the big companies would be fine but even them are struggling. To expect that once the war ends, everything will go back to how it was before would be foolish. It will take a while for everything to go down low, if things were to bounce back to what we used to consider normal.

newsflash about oil, is that the shipping companies are trying to put crew that will risk their lives by giving captains and Chief engineers 100k per month, plus 50k every time they pass the straight of hormouz. We live in crazy times indeed.

[NeuroticFish]

The fuel the Guardian claims was sent to Russia by South Korea is sent to Vladivostok
[...]
You see, Vladivostok is just too far away

Interesting detail, but imho this is a dangerous assumption. The war already costs far too much and it still goes on.
And since Putin is getting soldiers also from the far east (eg Irkutsk), transporting also the oil may be less than 50% extra distance.
This is not a business that needs to be profitable, no. This is... well, insane.

[vs2014]

The oil market is getting complicated day by day and it shows how the whole world depend on stable fuel supply. I think the situation will remain same even after several months because of the ongoing wars and political issues. Based on recent events, it seems the oil price may rise more which will make the situation more difficult. High oil price affect the world chain where transport, food and necessary items getting more expensive. We don't know when the price will back to normal but it seems the recovery will take longer than people expected.

[Barcode_]

It is kind of irony when Donald Trump is pushing the blame to the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy when oil price rises up sharply, Donald Trump kept on saying that it was Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil refineries that caused oil prices to skyrocket but it was actually the Iran war which Donald Trump started that resulted the huge spike in oil prices this year. Even Saudi Arabia are being dragged into this war now with the Houthis attacking key infrastructures inside the country of Saudi Arabia, I believe things are going to get more worse if Saudi Arabia are not able to work out a diplomacy solution with the Houthis in order to safeguard their oil facilities.

[pooya87]

It is kind of irony when Donald Trump is pushing the blame to the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy when oil price rises up sharply, Donald Trump kept on saying that it was Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil refineries that caused oil prices to skyrocket

That irony is funny in another way too since the Zionist Zelensky is just a proxy and has been doing what he is ordered to do by his masters. So in a way they are just blaming him for obeying their orders. Of course some say this is the conflict between the English and the US regimes, each of which are trying to pull ZZ's leash in a different direction.

I believe things are going to get more worse if Saudi Arabia are not able to work out a diplomacy solution with the Houthis in order to safeguard their oil facilities.

The Saudi usurpers of Arabia had enough time to end their aggression toward Yemen. After all the Saudis started the invasion of Yemen 12 years ago and have been bombing everything Yemen had (infrastructure, homes, ports, airfields, farmlands, etc.).

Today the Armed Forces of Yemen, ie. Ansarallah (that's the correct term not Houthis) is just retaliating and punishing the invaders. For example yesterday the Saudis bombed residential areas in Sandaa, the capital of Yemen so the Yemenis retaliated by bombing the hell out of the Saudi Aramco oil facilities to destroy Saudi's cash machine that funds their aggression.

[Oluwa-btc]

It is kind of irony when Donald Trump is pushing the blame to the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy when oil price rises up sharply, Donald Trump kept on saying that it was Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil refineries that caused oil prices to skyrocket but it was actually the Iran war which Donald Trump started that resulted the huge spike in oil prices this year. Even Saudi Arabia are being dragged into this war now with the Houthis attacking key infrastructures inside the country of Saudi Arabia, I believe things are going to get more worse if Saudi Arabia are not able to work out a diplomacy solution with the Houthis in order to safeguard their oil facilities.

Don't forget the midterms are by the corner and Donald Trump has been doing everything possible to see his ratings go high up. The funny thing is that they have a way to manipulate every, the algorithms and also the markets, and at the same time he keeps on lying loud enough and long enough to push aside every of his failings and faults aside or projected unto someone else. The comedian should be the scape goat and Donald Trump is also calling for a change already in who leads Ukraine. That deal with Russia to bring oil prices down says it all. They constantly manipulate the oil market.

But humans with vivid memories can not forget in a rush that he started this unjust war against Iranians and was expecting a quick regime change which didn't swing his way, that was thanks to the sovereign people of Iran defending themselves, their nations and also Palestine and Lebanon. The comedian is also a proxy and he got the balls from his bosses engineering and telling him what to do.

The Saudi's are dull asf! They have been bombing Yemen nonstop for years and also starving them and also their children for years. The recent go ahead from Washington to bomb Yemen lead to this and that should he enough to tell you this is engineered to see the world in a global debt crises. The Saudis do not want that, but they will learn the hear way when they find out that they have more to lose than win with their stupidity, sponsoring and funding the genocide in Palestine, while also being a anticipated global depression bout to hit the world.

How are they not working with their Muslims brothers in a regional war but the Zionist? History will not forget they did this. It should be aware enough to them that America can not save them. The fall of Saudi regime could also lead to the crashing of petrodollar system, who knows?

[Olotu20]

That irony is funny in another way too since the Zionist Zelensky is just a proxy and has been doing what he is ordered to do by his masters. So in a way they are just blaming him for obeying their orders. Of course some say this is the conflict between the English and the US regimes, each of which are trying to pull ZZ's leash in a different direction.

Some times I really wonder who this Trump of a man is, and how he dose his own things and even the way that he thinks, who has been the one giving Zelensky the mind to continue this whole war all these years, it has been America and it's Allies the the E.U and the so called NATO, is there is anyone to be blamed here it should be Trump because, Trump has been the one supporting the Zelensky regime with money weapons and amunations to continue this way all these years so the rise, Ukraine main target has always been Russia oil facilities, so Trump should blame himself, may Trump not happen to America again because, he is too automatic as a leader of the World biggest economy.

The Saudi usurpers of Arabia had enough time to end their aggression toward Yemen. After all the Saudis started the invasion of Yemen 12 years ago and have been bombing everything Yemen had (infrastructure, homes, ports, airfields, farmlands, etc.).

Today the Armed Forces of Yemen, ie. Ansarallah (that's the correct term not Houthis) is just retaliating and punishing the invaders. For example yesterday the Saudis bombed residential areas in Sandaa, the capital of Yemen so the Yemenis retaliated by bombing the hell out of the Saudi Aramco oil facilities to destroy Saudi's cash machine that funds their aggression.

I believe that the Saudis are carrying out these millitary actions against Yemen because of the backing that they are having from the United States, it's only natural that the Yemen military should retaliate and if the Yemen Hour this continues to go this way by Targeting oil facilities it will definitely have an effect on the global oil price Makin it to go up.

[Italian Panic]

I have taken this image from a user in the italian local board who really enjoys discussing these topics and is also very knowledgeable.
What you can see here is the trend in the index that tracks the charter costs of oil tankers, prices have now touch levels that without logic. Just think of the costs associated with insurance against all manner of risks, the costs of marine fuel, which are rising out of all proportion, of course the costs of transporting goods.
And all this is happening without anyone actually having to deal with a ship in any serious way, and without any incidents like the one involving the ship that blocked the Suez Canal a few years ago

[Baki202]

The oil market is getting complicated day by day and it shows how the whole world depend on stable fuel supply. I think the situation will remain same even after several months because of the ongoing wars and political issues. Based on recent events, it seems the oil price may rise more which will make the situation more difficult. High oil price affect the world chain where transport, food and necessary items getting more expensive. We don't know when the price will back to normal but it seems the recovery will take longer than people expected.

And noy just that the complications is coming with different price and have refused to come down and it is making things very unbearable for the masses because the price of fuel have fused to come down and they should find a way of resolving this because we all is getting tired already because what is now the role of the government because it ia looking like we are on our own because on a normal day there should be remedies in addressing issues like this but just look at were we are finding our self. In the hands of the government that don't give shit about anyone and the fact that what the people are saying does not really concern them and It is all a matter of time before we find a way.

[Oluwa-btc]

Some times I really wonder who this Trump of a man is, and how he dose his own things and even the way that he thinks, who has been the one giving Zelensky the mind to continue this whole war all these years, it has been America and it's Allies the the E.U and the so called NATO, is there is anyone to be blamed here it should be Trump because, Trump has been the one supporting the Zelensky regime with money weapons and amunations to continue this way all these years so the rise, Ukraine main target has always been Russia oil facilities, so Trump should blame himself, may Trump not happen to America again because, he is too automatic as a leader of the World biggest economy.

No time to ponder furthermore, he is the president of the United States government, one who has exported more aggression and terrorism around the globe.
Zelenskyy the comedian, got his backing and support from the previous US administration  ( Biden ) not really Donald Trump, alongside support from the head of the European Union, Germany and other western Nato allies. More support under Donald Trump has gone towards isreali regime committing genocide in gaza than Ukraine, but they still share intelligence on how to attack them. It has always been the plot to see Russia isolated and also crumble her economy but they have always found a way to see through tougher situations.

I don't blame him much on Ukraine, I just blame him for not honouring his words about taking two weeks to end the war with Russia and Ukraine. He is an instrument used to build the mass surveillance world they're projecting. A loud mouthed racist. I give you the worst US president ever in history.

[pooya87]

Zelenskyy the comedian, got his backing and support from the previous US administration  ( Biden ) not really Donald Trump,

Don't take what they say publicly too seriously.
The Pedophile POTUS in his first term gave more support to Zionist Zelensky than Biden did, more weapons too. Not to mention that it is not so much up to him to support this US proxy, the deep state in the US makes that decision.

Now the reason why the NATO support for their proxy, Ukraine has ups and downs is simply because NATO is not capable of fighting in one front let alone in multiple fronts. Over the past couple of years, multiple fronts have opened by NATO: Ukraine, Palestine, Yemen, Iran, Sudan and finally Taiwan is another potential one to open next.
The major ones are in West Asia. If you check the history of past years you can clearly see that each time NATO wanted to escalate more in West Asia, they reduce the aggression in Eastern Europe and vice versa. For example before they carried out the terrorist attacks against Iranians earlier this year, they first begged to Russia for peace and after 40 days of being bombed by Iran and before they started bombing Russian energy infrastructure they begged Iran for a ceasefire.

These days the NATO terrorists want to try their luck in West Asia against Iran (or possibly Yemen first) one more time so they are trying to de-escalate against Russia and get some breathing room in order to escalate elsewhere. Therefore their proxy, Zionist Zelensky complains

[Lida93]

It is kind of irony when Donald Trump is pushing the blame to the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy when oil price rises up sharply, Donald Trump kept on saying that it was Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil refineries that caused oil prices to skyrocket

That irony is funny in another way too since the Zionist Zelensky is just a proxy and has been doing what he is ordered to do by his masters. So in a way they are just blaming him for obeying their orders. Of course some say this is the conflict between the English and the US regimes, each of which are trying to pull ZZ's leash in a different direction.

If only what is befalling on Zelensky today could serve as a lesson for those other countries Presidents who are subservient in service to performing the bids of the Western bloc for the promises of support and aids, when time comes for who to take the fall it shall be them as it is Zelensky for what we know that the exponential rises in the price of oil isn't mainly as a result of Ukraine's drone strikes on Moscow oil refinery but merely a contribution to that rise which has being pushed high already by Netanyahu and Trump regime constant military  attacks on Iran, consequent to months of blockade of the Straits of Hormuz causing heavy disruptions in oil shipments through the route

[Doll2233]

The world can't move away from oil and gas or maybe we can reduce the use but we can't run away from hydrocarbons, there plenty of products that are gotten from crude oil and we slll depend on them to leave well. How are plastics going to be made available without crude oil. The hospital materials more than half in the hospitals are made from crude oil, you can imagine the damage it will cause to the world if this thing suddenly reduced.

The war has its consequences and that's what we are getting, we are seeing much of gasoline and diesels because those are the one that we used every day for transportation but there are more to what is been discussed about oil and it's market. If US knew this is going to cause problem for the world and price of oil will be this expensive, they would have warn Isreal not to engage from the beginning, now we are all seeing the effects and trying to manipulate Iran to be the problem.

To be  a neutral, we are watching the consequences of the War which is started by America in which after that many countries involved in that and thousands of innocent people are died due to terrorism of America and Israel is always supporting the America because they have excellent security by America and America is defending them against big opponent. Israel population is low and they want to get support from big countries like America which is united but all World is facing the inflation and short of resources. Iran is a Peaceful and they should have the right to stay free but America want to make them slave but that is not possible. We know that America have power to destroy the country of Iran but they have pressure from all World to stop the War.

[STT]

The reasoning I heard for higher oil medium to long term is that current pricing is based off military escorts.  The cost of this military presence is 10 million a day and cannot be maintained.   The obvious implication is the maximising of safety for the transport of oil is being done to keep oil flowing around the elections forthcoming.
  Iran is not beyond using the democracy of other countries as a weakness to leverage in their tactics ,it'd be too much of a giveaway in their eyes to let that opportunity pass without special effort.

Inversely post election that special effort on both sides will not be there to maintain the oil flow hence lower supply is likely and higher prices.   It is also suggest however that China will not especially buy oil at the highest prices, as the largest buyer from the region that will cap the prices.  Otherwise we'd see a run away to 200 perhaps, they have some alternatives and reserves.

  My guess is this all still leads to long term high priced oil, Venezuela is a long term development project and besides its oil quality is poor; nobody can really equal the gulf region for quantity of quality sweet oil.