Oil will be high for a while

[Abiky]

Now Trump has said that he no longer sees the point in negotiations. So oil prices are likely to rise again. The ceasefire has ended. This was expected, as such conflicts cannot be resolved through negotiations, only through military means.

This back and forth by Trump is really confusing. Markets will not take this lightly. Now all hopes of a serious deal are lost. There might be no turning back. Both the US and Iran are to blame. Iran, because it keeps attacking ships on the Strait while not giving up its nuclear material. And the US, because it wants to drag the war to "infinity and beyond". It's all a huge mess right now.

I wouldn't envision oil prices declining by the end of the year. Maybe next year? We've headed into complete uncertainty, so anything's possible.

[X-ray]

Now Trump has said that he no longer sees the point in negotiations. So oil prices are likely to rise again. The ceasefire has ended. This was expected, as such conflicts cannot be resolved through negotiations, only through military means.

This back and forth by Trump is really confusing. Markets will not take this lightly. Now all hopes of a serious deal are lost. There might be no turning back. Both the US and Iran are to blame. Iran, because it keeps attacking ships on the Strait while not giving up its nuclear material. And the US, because it wants to drag the war to "infinity and beyond". It's all a huge mess right now.

I wouldn't envision oil prices declining by the end of the year. Maybe next year? We've headed into complete uncertainty, so anything's possible.

Price of oil has been pretty low actually, right now around $73 even when war takes place again.

The price surge which happened before was actually because traders speculating on oil price, when market don't get as worked up as before, traders gone and market could absorb the blocking of strait of hormuz as if it's nothing.

On top of that, countries already found alternatives. I don't expect the price of oil to be that bad.

[bubilas]

The US launched strikes against Iran, hitting targets such as air defense systems and small vessels, and, most importantly, revoking the permit for the resumption of Iranian oil sales. The US actions, they claimed, were in response to attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which the US blamed on Iran and further strained the temporary agreement. Iran called the US operation and the lifting of the waiver a violation of the agreement, and Iran's deputy foreign minister promised to take decisive measures in response. Well, basically, we are once again entering a period where lies will border on truth. And there will likely be many volatile moments, especially related to oil.

Expect another sets of attacks from both sides, as the temparary ceasefire is now cancelled, with that exchange attacks for sure we will see more as Iran will not just go quite and let this they will start bringing their power to show up again, and regarding to this topic for sure that those who are compensating from this temporary ceasefire will again suffer from oil price hikes, expect massive increase once both US and Iran exchange their attacks from one another.

Yeah... For now on the Iranian front, things are stable: both sides are exchanging missile strikes, and Trump is yelling and calling names.
"I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum, sick people, run by sick people, ruthless and cruel... and if they get nuclear weapons, they'll use them..."
"...they're just a waste of time, they're liars... we made a deal with them, everyone agreed—no nuclear weapons, the deal is done... they go to the press and say, 'We never even talked about this'—there's something wrong with them."
In short, the dealmaker can't reach an agreement with anyone again.
For the second day, the US has been striking Iran, hitting energy facilities, air defense systems, radars, and so on.

[imthegreat]

Well, WTI is still at 73 for now, but a rebound is definitely on the horizon. And further growth is expected, as the reason for this is Iran's attack on merchant ships in the Strait.
Why is Tehran attacking ships? The US is not fulfilling the terms of the memorandum: they are not withdrawing Israeli troops from Lebanon and are not unfreezing Iranian funds.
Moreover, the US is trying to challenge Iran's control of the Strait. If you pay attention, you'll see that ships attempting to pass near the coast of Oman are being fired upon. This is because Iran only allows one safe passage, which it approves for ships, and those that haven't received this "approval" try to slip past the coast with their transponders turned off.
They do this on US advice, so it's no surprise that Trump is furious when these ships are hit by a missile.

[STT]

There has been no chance to restock reserves at the lows and we are back to a bullish price rise for oil due to continuation of war that apparently might continue indefinitely.   Even during ceasefires there is not enough oil being transported to replace that which has been lost.

  Only two alternatives to higher prices from low supply exist, greater supply outside the region which will take years to develop.   Even supply from Russia is poor for years in peace or not they require billions in investment and money is spent on bombing people not even troops so finishing the war is not likely; they are unable to place trade over war so that's the worlds largest country lost to future supply.   Outside of alternative supply exists only the scenario that demand will collapse from a recession globally which is uncommon most years.

[DrBeer]

Iran’s attempts to destabilize and manipulate the oil market are VERY MUCH reminiscent of another pariah state’s pathetic attempt to "plunge Europe back into the Stone Age and freeze it out" by manipulating the gas market
In short, Iran’s current actions are leading to the same consequences-countries in the region are diversifying their supplies, OPEC/OPEC+ has begun to abandon quotas, and it’s not out of the question that Iran’s oil sector will simply drop out of the market and lose its customers. 

[Abiky]

Price of oil has been pretty low actually, right now around $73 even when war takes place again.

The price surge which happened before was actually because traders speculating on oil price, when market don't get as worked up as before, traders gone and market could absorb the blocking of strait of hormuz as if it's nothing.

On top of that, countries already found alternatives. I don't expect the price of oil to be that bad.

Alternative shipping routes, or alternatives to oil? Because as far as I know, countries are having a real problem trying to do both. Oil is indispensable, often being difficult to replace. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains the largest and viable shipping route. No other Strait compares to it.

Funny thing is that Iran claims sovereignity over the Strait, when it's actually shared by its neighbor Oman. Is Oman okay with this? Besides, the Strait is in "international waters". If this back and forth between the US and Iran persist, other countries may have to step in. All for the benefit of the global economy. They can't risk a prolonged war any longer. Europe must act, Japan must act, as well as, the Gulf States. If nothing's done, the global economy will head into a deep recession. We'll see what happens...

[bubilas]

Oil market traders appear to have interpreted yesterday's bombings as a culmination, and oil prices even declined on the back of these hopes. This occurred because the market appears to be leaning toward expectations of a quick end to the military strikes between the US and Iran. Despite these strikes, the US is said to be maintaining technical negotiations with Iran. This is, in principle, unnecessary, as the talks were laced with speculation and rumor.
But the word "negotiations" is crucial. And they weren't taken lightly. After all, the US is reportedly still determined to find solutions to the problems with Iran. However, it must be acknowledged that the negotiations have failed to make significant progress on a host of issues, particularly the Iranian nuclear program.

[imthegreat]

Oil market traders appear to have interpreted yesterday's bombings as a culmination, and oil prices even declined on the back of these hopes. This occurred because the market appears to be leaning toward expectations of a quick end to the military strikes between the US and Iran. Despite these strikes, the US is said to be maintaining technical negotiations with Iran. This is, in principle, unnecessary, as the talks were laced with speculation and rumor.
But the word "negotiations" is crucial. And they weren't taken lightly. After all, the US is reportedly still determined to find solutions to the problems with Iran. However, it must be acknowledged that the negotiations have failed to make significant progress on a host of issues, particularly the Iranian nuclear program.

Analysts say the renewed tension in the Middle East is expected to be relatively short-lived, as both countries are constrained by practical, economic, and political realities. Although oil prices have fallen, fuel, which actually drives inflation, is performing more stubbornly.
This continues to put upward pressure on interest rates and means markets need to continue monitoring the spread between oil and petroleum product prices.
While the reduction in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices higher across the board, its initial impact on investor sentiment and inflation expectations has weakened slightly, despite the second day of bombing.

[Abiky]

Oil market traders appear to have interpreted yesterday's bombings as a culmination, and oil prices even declined on the back of these hopes. This occurred because the market appears to be leaning toward expectations of a quick end to the military strikes between the US and Iran. Despite these strikes, the US is said to be maintaining technical negotiations with Iran. This is, in principle, unnecessary, as the talks were laced with speculation and rumor.
But the word "negotiations" is crucial. And they weren't taken lightly. After all, the US is reportedly still determined to find solutions to the problems with Iran. However, it must be acknowledged that the negotiations have failed to make significant progress on a host of issues, particularly the Iranian nuclear program.

Iran won't give up its nuclear program that easily. The US is going to have to take the nuclear material by force. It's the only way. During the exchange of fire between the US and Iran, some Iranian oil refineries were hit. If attacks continue to affect refineries, reconstruction is going to take a long time. Not only that, but oil's price is going to remain affected in the long-term. Even with a lasting ceasefire in place.

I guess this marks the end of an era for oil. Or at least, the beginning of it. Set yourself forward at least a decade from now, and oil will be history. I sure hope so...

[bubilas]

The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that Tehran will cease shelling ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that all channels are open to shipping. And so on. Iran has said that it will not fulfill its obligations under the US-signed memorandum of understanding if Washington continues to escalate its attacks and engage in so-called intrigues. In theory, oil prices should have skyrocketed in response, but instead, they plummeted. Analysts expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the US and Iran to be relatively short-lived, as both sides are constrained by practical and economic political realities.

[Fredomago]

The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that Tehran will cease shelling ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that all channels are open to shipping. And so on. Iran has said that it will not fulfill its obligations under the US-signed memorandum of understanding if Washington continues to escalate its attacks and engage in so-called intrigues. In theory, oil prices should have skyrocketed in response, but instead, they plummeted. Analysts expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the US and Iran to be relatively short-lived, as both sides are constrained by practical and economic political realities.

Though oil price increase again but not as much as it was when the tension are really deep between these two rival countries, but for sure if there's no changes of if by chance the tension got deeper again the after effect of it will reflect to the current price of oil especially those countries who are really relying to middle east and don't have an actual supplies or any alternative options where to get their supplies.

[Oluwa-btc]

The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that Tehran will cease shelling ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that all channels are open to shipping. And so on. Iran has said that it will not fulfill its obligations under the US-signed memorandum of understanding if Washington continues to escalate its attacks and engage in so-called intrigues. In theory, oil prices should have skyrocketed in response, but instead, they plummeted. Analysts expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the US and Iran to be relatively short-lived, as both sides are constrained by practical and economic political realities.

And Iran is saying that they will never bow to the United States. They have always kept their part of the memorandum and if their demans are not matched, they will go back to United State developments and basesin the Middle East.
This war is not Americans war everything he Donald Trump accused Barack Obama of doing he has done and there's a chance of not getting improved voting during mid-term elections. And if he happens to send ground troops, Iranians have longed for this and it should be suicide for them.

[DrBeer]

The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that Tehran will cease shelling ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that all channels are open to shipping. And so on. Iran has said that it will not fulfill its obligations under the US-signed memorandum of understanding if Washington continues to escalate its attacks and engage in so-called intrigues. In theory, oil prices should have skyrocketed in response, but instead, they plummeted. Analysts expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the US and Iran to be relatively short-lived, as both sides are constrained by practical and economic political realities.

And Iran is saying that they will never bow to the United States. They have always kept their part of the memorandum and if their demans are not matched, they will go back to United State developments and basesin the Middle East.
This war is not Americans war everything he Donald Trump accused Barack Obama of doing he has done and there's a chance of not getting improved voting during mid-term elections. And if he happens to send ground troops, Iranians have longed for this and it should be suicide for them.

I’ve read the text of the memorandum as it was published, I may have missed something, so I’m asking for your help in resolving this issue. Based on your statement that "Iran has always fulfilled its part of the memorandum", could you tell me which clause in the memorandum states that Iran has the right and is obligated to fire on cargo ships from other countries? Honestly, I reread it and didn’t find anything like that. It can’t be that the Iranian regime has deceived anyone, right?

P.S. Did I understand the meaning of this phrase correctly: "And Iran is saying that they will never bow to the United States. They have always kept their part of the memorandum, and if their demands are not met" ?  Or did you mean something else?

[BALIK]

The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that Tehran will cease shelling ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that all channels are open to shipping. And so on. Iran has said that it will not fulfill its obligations under the US-signed memorandum of understanding if Washington continues to escalate its attacks and engage in so-called intrigues. In theory, oil prices should have skyrocketed in response, but instead, they plummeted. Analysts expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the US and Iran to be relatively short-lived, as both sides are constrained by practical and economic political realities.

And Iran is saying that they will never bow to the United States. They have always kept their part of the memorandum and if their demans are not matched, they will go back to United State developments and basesin the Middle East.
This war is not Americans war everything he Donald Trump accused Barack Obama of doing he has done and there's a chance of not getting improved voting during mid-term elections. And if he happens to send ground troops, Iranians have longed for this and it should be suicide for them.

I’ve read the text of the memorandum as it was published, I may have missed something, so I’m asking for your help in resolving this issue. Based on your statement that "Iran has always fulfilled its part of the memorandum", could you tell me which clause in the memorandum states that Iran has the right and is obligated to fire on cargo ships from other countries? Honestly, I reread it and didn’t find anything like that. It can’t be that the Iranian regime has deceived anyone, right?

P.S. Did I understand the meaning of this phrase correctly: "And Iran is saying that they will never bow to the United States. They have always kept their part of the memorandum, and if their demands are not met" ?  Or did you mean something else?

As far as I know, Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but on the condition that ships adhere to routes and procedures set by Tehran, rather than allowing unrestricted freedom of navigation as before the war.

The attack on the 3 oil tankers on July 7th is believed to have stemmed from their entry into a route that Tehran had not coordinated with and had not authorized.

To be fair, nobody knows what's going on or who's behind the plot to break the ceasefire.

[Oluwa-btc]

I’ve read the text of the memorandum as it was published, I may have missed something, so I’m asking for your help in resolving this issue. Based on your statement that "Iran has always fulfilled its part of the memorandum", could you tell me which clause in the memorandum states that Iran has the right and is obligated to fire on cargo ships from other countries? Honestly, I reread it and didn’t find anything like that. It can’t be that the Iranian regime has deceived anyone, right?

P.S. Did I understand the meaning of this phrase correctly: "And Iran is saying that they will never bow to the United States. They have always kept their part of the memorandum, and if their demands are not met" ?  Or did you mean something else?

No part! Collateral Damage is a good word for that, no?! By the way, they're in control of the SOH, so I will take it that, they were trying to maintain order.
Interesting questions, but if you claimed to have read the memorandum back to back, why are you throwing this questions my way?! That's by the way, I honestly thought Donald Trump claimed to have obliterated the Iranian navy, how have they been able to blow up Cargo ships in the SOH?!

[jossiel]

To be fair, nobody knows what's going on or who's behind the plot to break the ceasefire.

I have a wild guess and those are the industry players who are not happy when they see the oil price goes down.

I guess that it will take sometime before we actually see a real ceasefire with this war in that gulf region.

No one wants to give the other their demands and with this situation now with hatred and revenge, don't expect that we'll see a truce for a month or two.

[DrBeer]

The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that Tehran will cease shelling ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US is demanding that Iran make a public statement that all channels are open to shipping. And so on. Iran has said that it will not fulfill its obligations under the US-signed memorandum of understanding if Washington continues to escalate its attacks and engage in so-called intrigues. In theory, oil prices should have skyrocketed in response, but instead, they plummeted. Analysts expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the US and Iran to be relatively short-lived, as both sides are constrained by practical and economic political realities.

And Iran is saying that they will never bow to the United States. They have always kept their part of the memorandum and if their demans are not matched, they will go back to United State developments and basesin the Middle East.
This war is not Americans war everything he Donald Trump accused Barack Obama of doing he has done and there's a chance of not getting improved voting during mid-term elections. And if he happens to send ground troops, Iranians have longed for this and it should be suicide for them.

I’ve read the text of the memorandum as it was published, I may have missed something, so I’m asking for your help in resolving this issue. Based on your statement that "Iran has always fulfilled its part of the memorandum", could you tell me which clause in the memorandum states that Iran has the right and is obligated to fire on cargo ships from other countries? Honestly, I reread it and didn’t find anything like that. It can’t be that the Iranian regime has deceived anyone, right?

P.S. Did I understand the meaning of this phrase correctly: "And Iran is saying that they will never bow to the United States. They have always kept their part of the memorandum, and if their demands are not met" ?  Or did you mean something else?

As far as I know, Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but on the condition that ships adhere to routes and procedures set by Tehran, rather than allowing unrestricted freedom of navigation as before the war.

The attack on the 3 oil tankers on July 7th is believed to have stemmed from their entry into a route that Tehran had not coordinated with and had not authorized.

To be fair, nobody knows what's going on or who's behind the plot to break the ceasefire.

One can only speculate and try to find an excuse. BUT Iran violated the rule of the memorandum-not to fire on civilian vessels. If they had fired on a military frigate, for example, I would have considered that, to some extent, a “normal situation.”
By the way, in the memorandum and statements from open sources, I haven’t found any provisions mentioning any specific routes or the targeting of ships in the event of a route violation...
 

[RockBell]

Oil market traders appear to have interpreted yesterday's bombings as a culmination, and oil prices even declined on the back of these hopes. This occurred because the market appears to be leaning toward expectations of a quick end to the military strikes between the US and Iran. Despite these strikes, the US is said to be maintaining technical negotiations with Iran. This is, in principle, unnecessary, as the talks were laced with speculation and rumor.
But the word "negotiations" is crucial. And they weren't taken lightly. After all, the US is reportedly still determined to find solutions to the problems with Iran. However, it must be acknowledged that the negotiations have failed to make significant progress on a host of issues, particularly the Iranian nuclear program.

And the issue of the Iran and the United States is just becoming annoying because the oil prices suppose to have gone down by now and one of the factors is the still strikes and now the question is going to be to what end is this going to end because by now it should have ended because war is not something that anyone will pray for and for some time now let's assume that it will go differently in instead of choosing strikes as the best way to solve the whole thing because they don't need to play politics with the way people are suffering it's enough the government have to have to find a way to sought there self because it just annoying a lot of things have changed because of their Iran and United States saga.

[programmer3666]

Now Trump has said that he no longer sees the point in negotiations. So oil prices are likely to rise again. The ceasefire has ended. This was expected, as such conflicts cannot be resolved through negotiations, only through military means.

This back and forth by Trump is really confusing. Markets will not take this lightly. Now all hopes of a serious deal are lost. There might be no turning back. Both the US and Iran are to blame. Iran, because it keeps attacking ships on the Strait while not giving up its nuclear material. And the US, because it wants to drag the war to "infinity and beyond". It's all a huge mess right now.

I wouldn't envision oil prices declining by the end of the year. Maybe next year? We've headed into complete uncertainty, so anything's possible.

Honestly, this oil situation is a mess and ordinary people are the ones paying the price. When prices go up, it doesn't just affect fuel, it affects everything. Food, transport, even rent. Everything goes up because moving goods becomes more expensive. Look at what's happening now in many countries. In my country Nigeria, fuel prices have more than tripled in the last few years. A bag of rice that used to cost something like 25,000 naira is now almost 90,000 naira. It is the same story in many parts of the world, people are struggling to feed their families because of this ripple effect. Whether it is war, politics or market manipulation games, the real victims are always the everyday people trying to get by.