Oil will be high for a while

[DanWalker]

I have a wild guess and those are the industry players who are not happy when they see the oil price goes down.

I guess that it will take sometime before we actually see a real ceasefire with this war in that gulf region.

No one wants to give the other their demands and with this situation now with hatred and revenge, don't expect that we'll see a truce for a month or two.

Or it could also be Israel. They are directly involved in the conflict and have consistently opposed ceasefire efforts between the Us and Iran throughout this whole period.

When the memorandum was first signed, I thought the war would not escalate any further and would come to an end soon. Looks like I was wrong. Things are too complicated and wont end as soon as you say.

[Bitcoin_people]

After the ceasefire between the US and Iran, the price of oil in the world market dropped a lot, where Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz to everyone. But recently, we can see that the tension in the Middle East is increasing and the Strait of Hormuz has already been temporarily closed, in which case there is a possibility of oil prices increasing further. If the tension between the two countries increases, then of course Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and the price of oil will increase very quickly again, as we have seen a few days ago when there was a crisis all over the world. I think it is best for this war to stop altogether, otherwise the global oil crisis that occurs and people have to face difficulties is really bad. If the situation does not calm down in a few days and it continues to get worse, then there is a high possibility of the situation as before, the oil market may make a big jump in price again.

[Swordsoffreedom]

After the ceasefire between the US and Iran, the price of oil in the world market dropped a lot, where Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz to everyone. But recently, we can see that the tension in the Middle East is increasing and the Strait of Hormuz has already been temporarily closed, in which case there is a possibility of oil prices increasing further. If the tension between the two countries increases, then of course Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and the price of oil will increase very quickly again, as we have seen a few days ago when there was a crisis all over the world. I think it is best for this war to stop altogether, otherwise the global oil crisis that occurs and people have to face difficulties is really bad. If the situation does not calm down in a few days and it continues to get worse, then there is a high possibility of the situation as before, the oil market may make a big jump in price again.

According to the latest news, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again. At the same time, the United States and Iran are continuously attacking each other

It is safe to say that the current situation is very tense, and most of the agreements reached previously have fallen apart.

What is strange is how the financial markets and oil prices are reacting. Oil has gone up, but nowhere near as sharply as it did when the conflict first escalated back in March. It look like the global economy is gradually adapting to this war and is no longer reacting as strongly to every new development as it did before. Oil prices will continue to rise if the war escalates, but I do not think the price increase will be stronger than what we have seen before.

[DrBeer]

While Iran continues to "shoot itself in the foot", the United Arab Emirates is accelerating the construction of a new oil pipeline and port infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to minimize the risks to oil exports caused by the standoff with Iran. Construction of the pipeline is already 50% complete, and it is scheduled to begin operations in 2027.

Current Project Status:
Construction of the new route, which will connect oil fields to terminals at the port of Fujairah (Gulf of Oman), has been significantly accelerated amid the recent escalation in the region. As of today:

Progress: The project, being implemented by the state-owned company ADNOC, is halfway complete.
Objective: To double the country’s export capacity through Fujairah, which will fully safeguard oil exports from an Iranian blockade.
Existing alternative: The UAE already has an operational Habshan-Fujairah (ADCOP) pipeline capable of transporting up to 1.8 million barrels per day, however, the new capacity will allow significantly larger volumes to be rerouted around the strait

[Fredomago]

I have a wild guess and those are the industry players who are not happy when they see the oil price goes down.

I guess that it will take sometime before we actually see a real ceasefire with this war in that gulf region.

No one wants to give the other their demands and with this situation now with hatred and revenge, don't expect that we'll see a truce for a month or two.

Or it could also be Israel. They are directly involved in the conflict and have consistently opposed ceasefire efforts between the Us and Iran throughout this whole period.

When the memorandum was first signed, I thought the war would not escalate any further and would come to an end soon. Looks like I was wrong. Things are too complicated and wont end as soon as you say.

I guess US took this quick break to re-evaluate and assess what can be a collateral damage and now will start to attack much stronger, as we seen their last interractions where Iran is not that easy to stop US needs to gather more information, seems that they only use the time to accomulate more powerful weapons or they just simply wants to make things worse as possible to earn decent compensations, we never know what really the intensions but more on the money side on my personal opinion.

[imthegreat]

The law of oil rising in price as tensions escalate works like clockwork: Brent is around $84 after rising 11% this week. And personally, I think there's a good chance it could reach $90, because Trump and Iran aren't calming down.
There's certainly a small chance that de-escalation and maintaining flows through Hormuz could return the price to $77–80. But in the coming days, I expect new attacks on infrastructure or actual disruptions to shipping.

As usual, oil can sharply rebound in price on any diplomatic signals, but aggressively shorting it before de-escalation is dangerous.

[DanWalker]

I guess US took this quick break to re-evaluate and assess what can be a collateral damage and now will start to attack much stronger, as we seen their last interractions where Iran is not that easy to stop US needs to gather more information, seems that they only use the time to accomulate more powerful weapons or they just simply wants to make things worse as possible to earn decent compensations, we never know what really the intensions but more on the money side on my personal opinion.

I think the war in Iran is similar to the wars the United States has started in the past. They all revolve around oil, natural resources, regional influence, the petrodollar empire...and with Iran, perhaps it's because of the petrodollar empire. Iran has been conducting trade with China using the yuan, ushering in the era of petroyuan.

Whatever the reason, this would be a war of attrition and loss for the US, because Iran is a resilient nation and will not surrender easily.

[Fredomago]

I guess US took this quick break to re-evaluate and assess what can be a collateral damage and now will start to attack much stronger, as we seen their last interractions where Iran is not that easy to stop US needs to gather more information, seems that they only use the time to accomulate more powerful weapons or they just simply wants to make things worse as possible to earn decent compensations, we never know what really the intensions but more on the money side on my personal opinion.

I think the war in Iran is similar to the wars the United States has started in the past. They all revolve around oil, natural resources, regional influence, the petrodollar empire...and with Iran, perhaps it's because of the petrodollar empire. Iran has been conducting trade with China using the yuan, ushering in the era of petroyuan.

Whatever the reason, this would be a war of attrition and loss for the US, because Iran is a resilient nation and will not surrender easily.

I agree to that, money and power that's the common reason though US got their heavy forces but like you said Iran is no longer afraid, with them using thei resources and with China silently backing them by means of petroyuan trades, that's something that US needs to consider though we all know that there's always a working hands beyond this and whoever and whatever the target outcome they are oly one who knows it, for now, surely oil prices affects nations that relying to middle east as passage ways will be dangerous and somehow not everyone is willing to take the risk.

[fillippone]

Today I saw a statistic, where they showed the price per gallon in the US varies from the $6.66 dollar in Mono, California, to something like $2.75 in Billings, South Dakota.
This is a huge difference, hence the price of Oil is only a part of the difference that causes oil prices at the pump.  

[STT]

Infrastructure, pipelines and transportation is a massive part of pricing, also the quality of the oil as some oil grades require far more involvement in refining and cannot as easily be used.   Not all oil is equal, as a layman it appears this market is lumpy uneven, its not just the gulf which is constricted.

The biggest reason why oil will continue to be high is the levels of interference and failure via government are massive, not just the war but OPEC and all kinds of deliberate distortions to the natural market price.

flows through Hormuz could return the price to $77–80

It'd be good to see normal service and even peace, I always believe people can just live in peace though thats a fairytale scenario at present.   However beyond that is the absence of China in the oil market currently, they are the largest most active buyer certainly in this region and Iran particularly.
  If the oil price drops China should be looking to restock their inventories which have shielded them from this current failure, but they did not buy on the recent lows.  I've heard they are avoiding buying even normal amounts, some suggest electric car use but that still requires alternate energy from somewhere.

  The direction or trend for the oil price is likely higher until an equal size supply replaces that which is lost to the market.

[Abiky]

I agree to that, money and power that's the common reason though US got their heavy forces but like you said Iran is no longer afraid, with them using thei resources and with China silently backing them by means of petroyuan trades, that's something that US needs to consider though we all know that there's always a working hands beyond this and whoever and whatever the target outcome they are oly one who knows it, for now, surely oil prices affects nations that relying to middle east as passage ways will be dangerous and somehow not everyone is willing to take the risk.

Don't worry. The US already has it figured out. Trump is going to establish an alternative route for the shipment of oil, while leaving the naval blockade permanent. Next step is to deploy ground troops on Kharg Island, which is Iran's economic lifeline. While we know what consequences that will bring, Trump will still do it out of pure ego. Even if Congress doesn't give the "green light". The world knows he is unpredictable. So anything should be expected.

Except oil to get pricier during the remainder of the year. And if the war extends far beyond that, a price of $200 per barrel of oil might become a reality. Let's hope not. Or it will be complete disaster.

[Baki202]

After the ceasefire between the US and Iran, the price of oil in the world market dropped a lot, where Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz to everyone. But recently, we can see that the tension in the Middle East is increasing and the Strait of Hormuz has already been temporarily closed, in which case there is a possibility of oil prices increasing further. If the tension between the two countries increases, then of course Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and the price of oil will increase very quickly again, as we have seen a few days ago when there was a crisis all over the world. I think it is best for this war to stop altogether, otherwise the global oil crisis that occurs and people have to face difficulties is really bad. If the situation does not calm down in a few days and it continues to get worse, then there is a high possibility of the situation as before, the oil market may make a big jump in price again.

The issue in the middle east have become a big problem and that is why the price is fuel is very unstable and this is because Strait of Hormuz and there been a lot of storm and even when the price came down and from my own region the price have refuse to come down and I don't think it will be stable for now things like this will take time before normalcy will be restored because the issue will not just die down like that and I assume that the political agenda is just too much and they need put us into consideration because the citizens are the once that are suffering in the mist of all this saga.

We don't even know what is happening exactly if they are closing or it is temporary closed the Strait of Hormuz have become one of the most important icon in world and there is nothing that is annoying as the price of fuel since is not every that can afford an electric car and there are some machines that can only operate on batteries but I know that a time will come that fuel will not be that important and that is why am not bothered because everything have its time.

[DrBeer]

Let’s take a look at China’s moves in this situation:

If there was a surprise in China’s response to the conflict with Iran, it wasn’t that the world’s largest oil importer cut back on purchases and refining, but rather the extent to which it did so, writes Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/ what-is-chinas-next-surprise-oil-markets-lower-imports-higher-fuel-exports-2026-07-20/).
China has a long history of reducing oil imports in response to rising prices and increasing purchases when prices fall.
 But the plunge in imports to a nearly 10-year low in June was dramatic-especially since, although prices spiked after the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, they did not reach the highs of 2022.
China’s oil imports in June totaled 7.12 million barrels per day-the lowest level since October 2016 and 41.3% lower than a year earlier, according to official data. Normally, a decline of this magnitude would have led to a sharp drawdown in inventories, but that did not happen.
Instead, Chinese refineries reduced their utilization rate to 12.47 million barrels per day in June-17.7% less than in the same month of 2025 and the lowest level since March 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
China does not disclose the volumes of oil entering its strategic and commercial reserves or their drawdowns, but an estimate can be made by subtracting the volume of refining from the sum of imports and domestic production. With imports of 7.12 million bpd and domestic production of 4.41 million bpd, refiners had 11.53 million bpd available. However, they refined 12.27 million bpd-meaning approximately 940,000 bpd was drawn from reserves, compared to about 500,000 bpd in May.
Despite the drawdown of inventories over the past two months, China still managed to build up its reserves over the first half of the year as a whole-with a surplus of about 530,000 b/s.

[Jessie2121]

Now Trump has said that he no longer sees the point in negotiations. So oil prices are likely to rise again. The ceasefire has ended. This was expected, as such conflicts cannot be resolved through negotiations, only through military means.

Everything concerning this war seems like he is the one controlling it, no negotiation no ceasefire nothing today this problem that is affecting the world would end soon. My concern is the countries that are suffering due to the lack of oil or should I say high cost of oil, some countries getting fuel is a big problem to them, the price is like nobody cares, for instance the government. They act like everything is ok since they benefit from it all.

[Abiky]

The issue in the middle east have become a big problem and that is why the price is fuel is very unstable and this is because Strait of Hormuz and there been a lot of storm and even when the price came down and from my own region the price have refuse to come down and I don't think it will be stable for now things like this will take time before normalcy will be restored because the issue will not just die down like that and I assume that the political agenda is just too much and they need put us into consideration because the citizens are the once that are suffering in the mist of all this saga.

We don't even know what is happening exactly if they are closing or it is temporary closed the Strait of Hormuz have become one of the most important icon in world and there is nothing that is annoying as the price of fuel since is not every that can afford an electric car and there are some machines that can only operate on batteries but I know that a time will come that fuel will not be that important and that is why am not bothered because everything have its time.

You're right. Not everyone can afford an electric car. But I hear that hybrids are getting affordable. They will mark the transition into fully-electric vehicles in the future. People can buy a hybrid car today and save money. I'm sure governments will come up with some sort of subsidy or program aimed to foster adoption of hybrids and EVs. All in an effort to reduce dependence on oil for good.

I understand it's hard to move completely away from oil. Especially when it's used for almost everything (from energy to plastics to cosmetic products). Rest assured, the time will come when oil's use for energy (the most important thing) will become history. When that happens, what leverage will Iran have? Nothing. We'll see what happens...

[DanWalker]

I understand it's hard to move completely away from oil. Especially when it's used for almost everything (from energy to plastics to cosmetic products). Rest assured, the time will come when oil's use for energy (the most important thing) will become history. When that happens, what leverage will Iran have? Nothing. We'll see what happens...

In your opinion, how long will it take before the world no longer depend on oil? Another 10years, 20years, or 100years?

I bet that won't happen anytime soon, and it won't happen in our generation.

Instead of simply assuming that Iran will lose all its leverage once the world no longer depend on oil, think about what would happen to the US if the petrodollar system no longer existed.

[Thomas krik]

Yes the economic effects of a war don’t just disappear the moment the fighting ends. So just because the war ends doesn’t make everything gets better instantly. Probably I think it’s true when oil prices go up, almost every industry or business has a hard time.

[Compromise me]

Yes the economic effects of a war don’t just disappear the moment the fighting ends. So just because the war ends doesn’t make everything gets better instantly. Probably I think it’s true when oil prices go up, almost every industry or business has a hard time.

Yes it is very hard time for the industry or for all the business. Because oil is the basic items that is required almost in all fields, whether for production or for transportation. Every one directly or indirectly affected due to rise in its prices. If this conflict will continue for long time, then imagine how much difficult situation would be in future . Because thinking about the alternative will also take time, untill that it will create many economic problems for all. May be some under developed countries who are already lead their economy hardly may be collapsed.

[DrBeer]

I’ve gone over the forecasts-they sound optimistic:

Short-term forecast (Q3–Q4 2026)
J.P. Morgan: Forecasts an average Brent price of $86 per barrel in Q3, falling to $80 in Q4 and $78 by year-end. Experts note that the market is balancing out due to a sharp drop in demand in China (which switched to using domestic reserves during the price peak).
 
EIA (U.S. Department of Energy): Expects the average price of Brent in 2026 to be $81.91 per barrel. The agency anticipates a scenario in which Middle Eastern production will gradually return to pre-crisis levels by the end of this year.

Medium-term forecast (2027)
Shift from a deficit to a surplus: The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply will surge sharply in 2027, by 7.5-8 million barrels per day (driven by the U.S., South America, and a full recovery of exports from the Persian Gulf).
Price Drop: Against the backdrop of oversupply, the EIA forecasts that the price of Brent will fall to $64.76 per barrel in 2027, while Goldman Sachs’ consensus forecast points to a decline to $65 per barrel

[Jerusalem12]

The issue in the middle east have become a big problem and that is why the price is fuel is very unstable and this is because Strait of Hormuz and there been a lot of storm and even when the price came down and from my own region the price have refuse to come down and I don't think it will be stable for now things like this will take time before normalcy will be restored because the issue will not just die down like that and I assume that the political agenda is just too much and they need put us into consideration because the citizens are the once that are suffering in the mist of all this saga.

We don't even know what is happening exactly if they are closing or it is temporary closed the Strait of Hormuz have become one of the most important icon in world and there is nothing that is annoying as the price of fuel since is not every that can afford an electric car and there are some machines that can only operate on batteries but I know that a time will come that fuel will not be that important and that is why am not bothered because everything have its time.

You're right. Not everyone can afford an electric car. But I hear that hybrids are getting affordable. They will mark the transition into fully-electric vehicles in the future. People can buy a hybrid car today and save money. I'm sure governments will come up with some sort of subsidy or program aimed to foster adoption of hybrids and EVs. All in an effort to reduce dependence on oil for good.

I understand it's hard to move completely away from oil. Especially when it's used for almost everything (from energy to plastics to cosmetic products). Rest assured, the time will come when oil's use for energy (the most important thing) will become history. When that happens, what leverage will Iran have? Nothing. We'll see what happens...

Electric cars would be great, but like you said, they are a bit expensive, because here in our country there is a new car company that sells only electric cars, where the van type is around $30,000-$35,000, while the car type is around $15,000 or something, the price here in our country.

So we ordinary citizens have no choice but to face, tolerating, the prices that exist here in our country, we citizens really have no choice. We will not return to the original price before the oil crisis, which happened recently.