Ed Thorp did it - can we?

[DrBeer]

I’d like to invite you to review this information and discuss the theoretical possibilities of such “solutions.” This isn’t about criminals—it’s about gambling and SCIENCE!
You’ve probably heard this name before—Ed Thorp!
Ed Thorp (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp) a mathematical prodigy who figured out how to “beat the dealer” at blackjack while a graduate student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. That’s how his interest in blackjack began. After carefully studying the rules of the game, Thorp developed the world’s first card-counting system, which gave the player a mathematical advantage over the dealer. It was a sensation. His book Beat the Dealer, published in 1962, became a bestseller and caused a real panic among casinos.
Blackjack wasn’t Thorp’s only interest. Together with Claude Shannon, considered the father of information theory and the “Isaac Newton” of the IT industry, he began researching roulette. Shannon, like Thorp, believed that even in seemingly purely random systems, patterns could exist.
Together, they created an analog computing device that can be considered the world’s first portable computer. Using special sensors placed in his shoes, the device analyzed the roulette wheel’s rotation speed and the ball’s movement, after which it predicted with greater accuracy in which section the ball would land.

I won’t recount his entire biography, but since it’s VERY INTERESTING, I recommend reading up on him.
Let’s focus on these two points—identifying patterns and regularities in what would seem to be random systems. What do you think? Have you ever had experience identifying such patterns or dependencies? Yes, we’re not talking about physical casinos from Thorpe’s era; we’re talking about virtual systems that operate according to a specific logic.

P.S. The purpose of this thread is by no means to “hack casinos,” but is purely scientific and educational in nature

[Audreycharles]

This is educational

[mcdouglasx]

It's possible that some physical systems could fail in their randomness due to mechanical problems, causing a ball to land more often in certain places. While this is surely constantly monitored nowadays, in purely random virtual systems, this isn't possible unless there's some kind of bug in the game that gives you an advantage, which some would certainly exploit. But given current technology, I doubt that today's purely random games use a generator that isn't entirely random. Besides, these games have systems that test the gameplay to ensure this and avoid errors that could cost them millions.

[Hispo]

Interestingly enough I have read before about how there are some gamblers who manage to get advantage over the house by counting cards. It is rather a simple method but it requires much attention and having a sharp mind in order to memorize numbers and the chances on the next cards left on the deck to be of low or high value.

Still, most of the times casinos take a look at people who are "advantage players", who are eventually kicked off the casino and if they try to return several times, they will get permanently banned from even coming back in.

[Slow death]

Nowadays, with the great technological advancements, casinos have become much more secure; they have no loopholes. Because of this, people win only if they are very lucky or highly skilled, and even skilled players can lose a lot in the long run. That's why nowadays you don't see news anymore about someone winning millions playing poker in a casino, and often not anymore. Today everything is different; in physical casinos there are cameras everywhere, and winning a lot is grounds for banning someone from the casino.

[freedomgo]

Yes it’s educational, but to answer the question, can we really do it? Obviously not. Most of us already believe that gambling is a game of luck, so we don’t really push ourselves to put in that kind of effort just to win.

And let’s always remember that the system is built in favor of the casinos.
If someone actually finds a way to beat them, they’ll see it as cheating and will try to figure out how it’s being done. That alone already makes it risky.

I’ve a movie about card counting too, and those who get caught usually get punished or banned by casino owners. It’s not something worth risking our safety for. Even if we think we can hide whatever method or device we’re using, it’s still dangerous. If anything, doing things online feels a lot safer compared to trying it in an actual casino.

[STT]

Everyone loves the idea but few are this level of genius to think so well without bias as to accumulate some or any advantage from a system of play.
  No matter what I always seem to come up with some idea of a system that is surely helping me but if honest my system is just superstition with hope that somehow it threads together to make me more lucky when playing randomly.   Some games your strategy can matter but I think probably the majority it wont help at all, there's nothing with studying detail in the hope of finding something useful just don't believe you are going to win easily its unlikely.

[OgNasty]

I know I can’t do it. I know others have had luck with counting cards in the past but it is pretty rare. I feel like these days you won’t be able to beat the odds for long before you’re identified and investigated. Better to spend your time adding value to something and being rewarded for it.

[fullfitlarry]

Yes, one way in roulette is identifying a bias wheel and it has been done before by a family from Spain if I'm not mistaken. As for their study for the roulette, if I'm not mistaken, for a single number, they can predict where "it might land", so it's not that accurate of a number, but at least it could be within the neighboring or one part of the roulette.

For the Blackjack, it's card counting right, and many books have been written already about that subject and once a casino spotted you doing card counting, it's automatic that you will be escorted by the staff and get out of the casino vicinity.

[Julien_Olynpic]

The card counting method published by Thorp is widely known today. Professional players likely use it, but since it's so widely known, it likely provides few professionals with an additional advantage. Furthermore, as far as I know, it involved team play, not just card counting.
As for the roulette predictor method, I'm inclined to think it's a gross exaggeration. It's clear it hasn't gained widespread popularity. If it could predict the roulette wheel, it would be discussed on every gaming forum.

[un_rank]

Anyone who has come up with a system to detect patterns in any casino game will not come and give that information here with lots of casino reps present on the forum. If you develop such a system you lay low and exploit it (if it is not violating a rule) as much as you can to stay undetected and then maybe write a book about it when it becomes public.

...Yes, we’re not talking about physical casinos from Thorpe’s era; we’re talking about virtual systems that operate according to a specific logic.

There are still physical casinos today.
Reading patterns on virtual, online games are more difficult to do. Your only connection to the software is the front-end that the casino lets you interact with. Highly unlikely they will leave in any sort of clues for you.

- Jay -

[iv4n]

Let’s focus on these two points—identifying patterns and regularities in what would seem to be random systems. What do you think?

Counting cards is a real thing, and I guess anyone can learn how to count cards. But who is disciplined enough to stick to the system hand by hand, and like that for hours? That can be tiring, and let's not forget, every mistake counts. Bankroll is also important, we all run into long losing streaks... When emotions are raging, bankroll is melting, and hours of playing are taking a toll, can you stay on your system?

When this book was written, I guess many casinos used single decks, maybe double decks... Today, blackjack games from third-party providers use a random number generator, and live dealers use more decks...

[Dunamisx]

I still don't believe in any scientific approach in gambling bringing us more closer to almost getting it right to win, had it been it had been mathematically proven that gambling problems could be solved through his process, then maybe things wouldn't have been that difficult to see several genius gamblers winning always, but as we may have it, everything still fall under luck or coincidence than the assumption of the use of science in breaking out for a winning opportunity in gambling.

[stompix]

P.S. The purpose of this thread is by no means to “hack casinos,” but is purely scientific and educational in nature

So then, let's go strictly scientifically
-Ed Throp's method peaks at 4 decks of cards, useless at 8 decks
-Most casinos deal with 6-8 decks of cards

So....nearyl useless.

Reshuffle machines after each play..... completely useless!

[giammangiato]

P.S. The purpose of this thread is by no means to “hack casinos,” but is purely scientific and educational in nature

Thanks for sharing this, I wasn't aware of the book and didn't know Ed Thorp, my name isn't new.
I will definitely read the book, interesting.
They made a movie about a similar story, with several famous actors, it was about a boy who was a talent with numbers and joined a team that beat the bank, so much so that they were often kicked out of casinos (I wonder if it is inspired by this character).
I've always been convinced about probability, but if there's a way to make it "calculable," that's really cool.

[Darker45]

The most that I can do is discover short-term or temporary, therefore insignificant, result patterns in random games such as roulette, dice, and others. In the end, it won't make me rich. On the contrary, it could make me lose bigger because the pattern doesn't have any scientific basis, therefore won't guarantee a repeat. But it makes betting a bit more fun.

What gives online casinos an advantage over brick-and-mortar casinos against gifted gamblers is that monitoring isn't done manually. The system could put in place numerous triggers so that certain behaviors could easily be detected. Defense mechanisms could easily be set. They can easily kick out a user anytime for winning more than losing.

[Somegory]

If you believe that you can do the same, what's holding you back? Just do it then, and there is a saying that you become what you believe and say, I am goung to say no I can't do this because I know I can't, it's like inflicting sharp pain like in my heart, I am not ready to go through such stress that could turn me into madness, good luck if you believe.

I believe that gambling is all about luck, I want my believe to remain the same, the idea of finding a way to beat the casino is too stressful for me, and for what to happen?

There a is million reasons why this is impossible but we can never say never, maybe someone can be as good as the person OP is using as an example, but for me just count me out.

[OsaiEmma]

Of course it's possible, but the first thing you need is enough data, if someone can get enough data, analyze them, they can spot if there is a pattern or not. Knowing if there is a pattern or not in that chaos, is the first step in understanding the pattern. But achieving it, honestly, it will take serious research and deep investigation and understanding of mathematics and what not, but it is possible, heck I believe there is nothing that's isn't possible.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Of course it's possible, but the first thing you need is enough data, if someone can get enough data, analyze them, they can spot if there is a pattern or not. Knowing if there is a pattern or not in that chaos, is the first step in understanding the pattern. But achieving it, honestly, it will take serious research and deep investigation and understanding of mathematics and what not, but it is possible, heck I believe there is nothing that's isn't possible.

That's what this scientist did in case of roulette, they gather millions of spin and see how the ball goes and where it will possible land. And they uses math and science to calculated it. As for the question if we can do it, I don't think that gamblers will go to that length in this era to get an advantage as casinos might have known everything in the books already like card counting so it might not be as effected as what Ed Thorp did.

And everything that gamblers invented in the past to take advantage of the casinos, they have been caught and it didn't look for them. And most likely this is only applicable to land base casinos. Now, gamblers are moving to online to it's hard to execute it.

[Hispo]

I know I can’t do it. I know others have had luck with counting cards in the past but it is pretty rare. I feel like these days you won’t be able to beat the odds for long before you’re identified and investigated. Better to spend your time adding value to something and being rewarded for it.

Also, there is a an important fact many people seem to forget, and it is that when this method of counting cards was developed, casinos did not actually have mechanisms set in place with counter advantage gamblers and secure their long term profit.
With time, casinos recognized the techniques used by card counters and started to develop ways to counter their advantage so the edge of the house could continue to be effective.

It is not so easy to pull something similar off against a casino as it used to be in the past.