Ed Thorp did it - can we?

[danherbias07]

No, I don't think it can be done with online casinos.

I believe their system also relies on the deposits and losses of a gambler, which is why sometimes it gives a win that is almost exact with how much the gambler lost. Sometimes, it's exactly the previous balance of the gambler.
I've played slots for a long time, and that happened many times. When it comes to casino games like blackjack, dice, or roulette, it all depends on RNG, but I think the deposit and losses also affect it. That situation happened to me many times, so I don't think it's superstition anymore.
We cannot count cards or have a strategy with those types of online gambling games.

[davis196]

I won’t recount his entire biography, but since it’s VERY INTERESTING, I recommend reading up on him.
Let’s focus on these two points—identifying patterns and regularities in what would seem to be random systems. What do you think? Have you ever had experience identifying such patterns or dependencies? Yes, we’re not talking about physical casinos from Thorpe’s era; we’re talking about virtual systems that operate according to a specific logic.

I've never had such "experience". I'm not a mathematician and I'm not that smart, so I can't identify complex patterns or dependencies.
I don't believe that "card counting" is possible in online casinos. Online casino games can be rigged, that's for sure, but I highly doubt that anyone can be smart enough to find a way to beat a rigged game. Maybe rigged/manipulated games can be revealed with the help of complex mathematical models, but there's no way to exploit a system, that is rigged against the player. We live in the AI era right now. Maybe AI will become smart enough to find rigged gambling games and maybe it would try to beat them in one way or another.

[Smartprofit]

Ed Thorp was a mathematical genius. And I'm not a mathematical genius at all... 🙋 How can I beat an online casino using advanced mathematical, technological, and scientific methods? I'm not a scientist or a professional criminal...

Furthermore, from a methodological perspective, you can only beat casinos that play unfairly. You can't beat the mathematical theory of probability. But if the casino game is governed not by mathematical probability theory, but by some internal system, then you can beat the casino.🧖 To do this, you need to understand the rules of this internal system.

Suppose we're dealing with a roulette game that's programmed as follows: the player wins the first three games (the casino wants to entice the player into the game), and the player loses all subsequent games. In this case, the player can only play three games and then stop playing. I'm considering a theoretical situation. How can the player guess that the fourth and subsequent games will be losing?  Well, let's assume it's not just one player, but a whole team of players who are looking for just such anomalous patterns.🎰

[Questat]

Ed Thorp was a mathematical genius. And I'm not a mathematical genius at all... 🙋 How can I beat an online casino using advanced mathematical, technological, and scientific methods?

We can only admire others for their skills and knowledge, but we also know our own limitations. We’re just casual gamblers who prefer to take it easy, relying more on luck than on skill, and we’re not that ambitious when it comes to trying to beat the system, since we already know how hard, almost impossible, that is.

So for me, I’m already happy knowing that there are people who can beat the system, while also accepting that I’ll probably never be one of them.

because, just like you...

I'm not a scientist or a professional criminal...

[DrBeer]

P.S. The purpose of this thread is by no means to “hack casinos,” but is purely scientific and educational in nature

Thanks for sharing this, I wasn't aware of the book and didn't know Ed Thorp, my name isn't new.
I will definitely read the book, interesting.
They made a movie about a similar story, with several famous actors, it was about a boy who was a talent with numbers and joined a team that beat the bank, so much so that they were often kicked out of casinos (I wonder if it is inspired by this character).
I've always been convinced about probability, but if there's a way to make it "calculable," that's really cool.

The only caveat is that Ed Thorp “worked” with physical casinos, where the laws of physics apply and cannot be circumvented.
 And knowing the laws, it is possible—with a high degree of probability and knowledge of the “system parameters”—to predict its state at a given moment in time. Or, knowing how many decks of cards there are and which cards have been dealt, to calculate the probability of the remaining cards.
 In virtual casinos, there are no laws of physics and no known set of decks of cards; instead, there are algorithms. And that’s the main question: can such methods of analyzing system behavior be transferred to the “virtual world”?
 

P.S. I really like the movie “Rain Man”; the casino scene isn’t the main one, but it’s very well shot. Just like in “The Hangover” (2009), or rather, one of the casino scenes

[yahoo62278]

Casinos today have a continuous shuffler making it nearly impossible to keep track of all the cards in the IRL casinos. Online is even worse because they only play with half of the 8 decks they shuffle and each provider has different rules for their BJ. Evolution's worst rule being they don't check for BJ unless an A is face up for the dealer. Just super hard to have a strategy except play perfect blackjack and give yourself the best chance.

[DrBeer]

Ed Thorp was a mathematical genius. And I'm not a mathematical genius at all... 🙋 How can I beat an online casino using advanced mathematical, technological, and scientific methods? I'm not a scientist or a professional criminal...

Furthermore, from a methodological perspective, you can only beat casinos that play unfairly. You can't beat the mathematical theory of probability. But if the casino game is governed not by mathematical probability theory, but by some internal system, then you can beat the casino.🧖 To do this, you need to understand the rules of this internal system.

Suppose we're dealing with a roulette game that's programmed as follows: the player wins the first three games (the casino wants to entice the player into the game), and the player loses all subsequent games. In this case, the player can only play three games and then stop playing. I'm considering a theoretical situation. How can the player guess that the fourth and subsequent games will be losing?  Well, let's assume it's not just one player, but a whole team of players who are looking for just such anomalous patterns.🎰

Just a guess, but here goes
The plan is roughly as follows:
1. Collect data—the more, the better
2. Train the neural network
3. Process the data using AI
The physical world follows the laws of physics; the virtual world follows virtual intelligence!

[tvplus006]

Interestingly enough I have read before about how there are some gamblers who manage to get advantage over the house by counting cards. It is rather a simple method but it requires much attention and having a sharp mind in order to memorize numbers and the chances on the next cards left on the deck to be of low or high value.
Still, most of the times casinos take a look at people who are "advantage players", who are eventually kicked off the casino and if they try to return several times, they will get permanently banned from even coming back in.

The fact that card counting gives the player an advantage over the casino is quite real, and the movie "21" starring Kevin Spacey as a university professor was shot based on real events. This film can be considered as basic information for those who want to understand the card counting system and how the casino cruelly deals with such players.

[nelson4lov]

Most of his strategies are useless today because casinos learnt a lot from his book and his experiences. As with all strategies that get exposed publicly, the edge will be erased. I don't think it would be +EV now to dedicate ones life to such strategies now because casinos have gotten smarter and they have a team of experts that are constantly finding and closing loopholes. Only way to win now is like 90% luck with a bit of skill. You don't even last long in those casino houses if you're too skillful.

[Hispo]

Interestingly enough I have read before about how there are some gamblers who manage to get advantage over the house by counting cards. It is rather a simple method but it requires much attention and having a sharp mind in order to memorize numbers and the chances on the next cards left on the deck to be of low or high value.
Still, most of the times casinos take a look at people who are "advantage players", who are eventually kicked off the casino and if they try to return several times, they will get permanently banned from even coming back in.

The fact that card counting gives the player an advantage over the casino is quite real, and the movie "21" starring Kevin Spacey as a university professor was shot based on real events. This film can be considered as basic information for those who want to understand the card counting system and how the casino cruelly deals with such players.

Though, I have always thought movies which are based on gambling and getting as much money from casinos as possible were quite idealized and sometimes exaggerated in order to keep the viewers engaged.

The idea of beating the system and getting millions of dollars from casinos is already attractive as it is, without having to give much context on it. It was obvious a movie about it was going to be a blockbuster. Since making movies is a business, I try not to take literally all I see in those stories as a fact of completely based in real events.

[DrBeer]

No, I don't think it can be done with online casinos.

I believe their system also relies on the deposits and losses of a gambler, which is why sometimes it gives a win that is almost exact with how much the gambler lost. Sometimes, it's exactly the previous balance of the gambler.
I've played slots for a long time, and that happened many times. When it comes to casino games like blackjack, dice, or roulette, it all depends on RNG, but I think the deposit and losses also affect it. That situation happened to me many times, so I don't think it's superstition anymore.
We cannot count cards or have a strategy with those types of online gambling games.

This model could be considered somewhat dishonest, because it is entirely controlled and creates the illusion of “imminent success,” which misleads the player. I would like to believe that not all casinos engage in such manipulation of the gaming process.

[Yaunfitda]

Most of his strategies are useless today because casinos learnt a lot from his book and his experiences. As with all strategies that get exposed publicly, the edge will be erased. I don't think it would be +EV now to dedicate ones life to such strategies now because casinos have gotten smarter and they have a team of experts that are constantly finding and closing loopholes. Only way to win now is like 90% luck with a bit of skill. You don't even last long in those casino houses if you're too skillful.

Also, land base casinos has increased the number of decks of cards in blackjack that's why it's going to be very hard to do card counting. And all eyes are going to be in you if by a slight chance that the casinos see you doing this. In theory, it's good but casinos as you have said, learn the tricks from his books. It might be better if he just keep it with him or few of his accomplishes to beat the casino odds. So we don't know what's the reason by coming up to the public, having a book to tell everything. Maybe they think that they have milk the system already so it's about time to tell and maybe someone will try and test their system.

[Merit.s]

Our interest differs from person to person. I don't think that I have the brain and skills to count cards or look for a way to beat the system because I don't see gambling as what I want to make a million dollars from. I just gamble for fun and I prefer it that way.

OP, you post is really educational and interesting to read. Only a few gamblers have succeeded in beating the system despite a lot of them that have tried.

[michellee]

I don't know and not trying identifying patterns. But if Ed did it, maybe he know how doing that and finally find the way. I am difficult to remembering the pattern and not rely on that because that can wasting time for me.

I can't enjoy my gambling activities as I will study the pattern and finds it until I can get the right pattern. But I don't know if that can be apply into online casino.

But if some people want to study to finds the pattern, that is okay since they want to beat the casino which they think it is possible. Maybe that is possible but we don't know.

[bubilas]

I’d like to invite you to review this information and discuss the theoretical possibilities of such “solutions.” This isn’t about criminals—it’s about gambling and SCIENCE!
You’ve probably heard this name before—Ed Thorp!
Ed Thorp (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp) a mathematical prodigy who figured out how to “beat the dealer” at blackjack while a graduate student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. That’s how his interest in blackjack began. After carefully studying the rules of the game, Thorp developed the world’s first card-counting system, which gave the player a mathematical advantage over the dealer. It was a sensation. His book Beat the Dealer, published in 1962, became a bestseller and caused a real panic among casinos.
Blackjack wasn’t Thorp’s only interest. Together with Claude Shannon, considered the father of information theory and the “Isaac Newton” of the IT industry, he began researching roulette. Shannon, like Thorp, believed that even in seemingly purely random systems, patterns could exist.
Together, they created an analog computing device that can be considered the world’s first portable computer. Using special sensors placed in his shoes, the device analyzed the roulette wheel’s rotation speed and the ball’s movement, after which it predicted with greater accuracy in which section the ball would land.

I won’t recount his entire biography, but since it’s VERY INTERESTING, I recommend reading up on him.
Let’s focus on these two points—identifying patterns and regularities in what would seem to be random systems. What do you think? Have you ever had experience identifying such patterns or dependencies? Yes, we’re not talking about physical casinos from Thorpe’s era; we’re talking about virtual systems that operate according to a specific logic.

P.S. The purpose of this thread is by no means to “hack casinos,” but is purely scientific and educational in nature

Of course, he is a very famous person and I have often heard about his method of counting cards. As for roulette, I did not understand well from your explanations how it happens. Even if the initial data is somehow embedded in the system, it can be assumed that it can calculate something. But how does the user of this method know the millisecond when the roulette wheel was spinning at a certain point, and at what angular velocity it is spinning? And also the ball is an ultra variable in this equation, which introduces complete chaos, because its parameters in the system are highly variable.

[Haunebu]

There are many others who beat the house in the long term in different ways, but they don't reveal themselves or their strategies due to which they stay hidden in the shadows though they are basically a small minority of global gamblers.

They know damn well that their strategies wouldn't last much longer if they revealed everything just like what Ed did with card counting.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

I’d like to invite you to review this information and discuss the theoretical possibilities of such “solutions.” This isn’t about criminals—it’s about gambling and SCIENCE!
You’ve probably heard this name before—Ed Thorp!
Ed Thorp (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp) a mathematical prodigy who figured out how to “beat the dealer” at blackjack while a graduate student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. That’s how his interest in blackjack began. After carefully studying the rules of the game, Thorp developed the world’s first card-counting system, which gave the player a mathematical advantage over the dealer. It was a sensation. His book Beat the Dealer, published in 1962, became a bestseller and caused a real panic among casinos.
Blackjack wasn’t Thorp’s only interest. Together with Claude Shannon, considered the father of information theory and the “Isaac Newton” of the IT industry, he began researching roulette. Shannon, like Thorp, believed that even in seemingly purely random systems, patterns could exist.

P.S. The purpose of this thread is by no means to “hack casinos,” but is purely scientific and educational in nature

To be frankly speaking, I literally think whatever discovery these two great minds might have found out during their studies back in many years ago, I absolutely think they are already outdated in this present era of Online gambling, because whatever strategy they might have noted in their books that was considered the best selling back in those years, those tactics will be far behind the current ways Roulette and Blackjack works now, most especially on online casinos. But however, having a better knowledge about what Thorp, Claude Shannon and Isaac Newton found out about the physical Roulette and Blackjack, can only give us a better understanding to cracking new codes how this current modern online gambling system might work. As those strategies can't be 100% dependant on, since the era of gambling has drastically changed to the use of more modernized technologies and tools.

[serjent05]

Yes it’s educational, but to answer the question, can we really do it? Obviously not. Most of us already believe that gambling is a game of luck, so we don’t really push ourselves to put in that kind of effort just to win.

And let’s always remember that the system is built in favor of the casinos.
If someone actually finds a way to beat them, they’ll see it as cheating and will try to figure out how it’s being done. That alone already makes it risky.

I’ve a movie about card counting too, and those who get caught usually get punished or banned by casino owners. It’s not something worth risking our safety for. Even if we think we can hide whatever method or device we’re using, it’s still dangerous. If anything, doing things online feels a lot safer compared to trying it in an actual casino.

And if ever we can do it, probably we end up being thrown out of the casino.  Card counting is frown upon by the casino, anyone suspected of card counting is requested to leave.  This things happen not only in movies but also in real casino establishment. Here are some article that tackles about the issue of card counting..

https://jimmakos.com/barred-from-casinos-for-counting-cards-at-blackjack/
https://www.nytimes.com/1981/05/11/nyregion/blackjack-counters-and-others-face-risk-of-ejection-by-casinos.html


Card counting is indeed a good skill for playing blackjack.  It is not impossible to learn even though it may take some time.  But casinos are on guard against people who know this kind of skill.  Most that are caught are ejected from the game, and worse from the casino.  So whether we can do it or not, is it worth the effort when we can be ejected anytime if the casino suspects us?

[nelson4lov]

There are many others who beat the house in the long term in different ways, but they don't reveal themselves or their strategies due to which they stay hidden in the shadows though they are basically a small minority of global gamblers.

They know damn well that their strategies wouldn't last much longer if they revealed everything just like what Ed did with card counting.

Haha. The crazy thing is that if i found myself in that position, I'll likely do the same as anyone else. The reason is because whenever there's an edge in anything, it works till the very moment information about the edge is revealed and then it's gone. It happens all the time. If I ever get an edge, I'd be sure to use it as much as I can because the house have the edge for the longest time and it's a normal situation.

[Cryptomultiplier]

I’d like to invite you to review this information and discuss the theoretical possibilities of such “solutions.” This isn’t about criminals—it’s about gambling and SCIENCE!
You’ve probably heard this name before—Ed Thorp!
Ed Thorp (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp) a mathematical prodigy who figured out how to “beat the dealer” at blackjack while a graduate student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. That’s how his interest in blackjack began. After carefully studying the rules of the game, Thorp developed the world’s first card-counting system, which gave the player a mathematical advantage over the dealer. It was a sensation. His book Beat the Dealer, published in 1962, became a bestseller and caused a real panic among casinos.
Blackjack wasn’t Thorp’s only interest. Together with Claude Shannon, considered the father of information theory and the “Isaac Newton” of the IT industry, he began researching roulette. Shannon, like Thorp, believed that even in seemingly purely random systems, patterns could exist.

P.S. The purpose of this thread is by no means to “hack casinos,” but is purely scientific and educational in nature

To be frankly speaking, I literally think whatever discovery these two great minds might have found out during their studies back in many years ago, I absolutely think they are already outdated in this present era of Online gambling, because whatever strategy they might have noted in their books that was considered the best selling back in those years, those tactics will be far behind the current ways Roulette and Blackjack works now, most especially on online casinos. But however, having a better knowledge about what Thorp, Claude Shannon and Isaac Newton found out about the physical Roulette and Blackjack, can only give us a better understanding to cracking new codes how this current modern online gambling system might work. As those strategies can't be 100% dependant on, since the era of gambling has drastically changed to the use of more modernized technologies and tools.

This is exactly my thoughts because I believe there has been so much innovation and upgrades to counter what Thorp and Shannon discovered, mostly now when there is AI bots integrated into some major casino systems to fish out suspicious cheaters and mete judgement by freezing the account until proper investigation is carried out in some cases.

It was an interesting read so much so that makes it sound possible to discover a new way to gain an edge over the house with AI tools and apps but somehow it may need more coding experience and high computing power to go against the expensive servers casinos use these days to maintain security of their main framework.