Single or parlay?

[KTChampions]

It's basically the same. Let's convert the odds into probabilities.

Single odds

Code:

1/1.96 = 0.510 = 51% chance of winning

Parlay odds

Code:

1/1.40 = 0.714 = 71.4% Chance of winning
0.714*0.714 = 0.51 = 51% Chance of winning

Both options represent the same real mathematical chance of winning. So the idea that the parlay is safer because each leg is low-risk is an illusion.

In addition, it's not just this that is at play; there's also the house edge, right? Some sportsbooks put margins when gamblers use parlays, so be wary of that as well.

This is an incorrect calculation, you forgot to take into account the margin, although you know that it exists.
In the case of a single bet, the bookmaker takes the margin once, in the case of a multibet, the bookmaker takes the margin as many times as there are outcomes in the multibet. This is easily proven through calculations, since a multibet is equal to a series of single bets where the winnings from the first bet are fully reinvested in the second.
Therefore, if the odds are equal, a single bet is always more profitable.

[Strongkored]

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

Singles still have a better chance of winning, even with higher odds than parlays.
I've won on single bets at 2.00, but I've also lost on parlays with lower accumulated odds, and vice versa.
However, the reason I sometimes choose to place parlays is the desire for greater profits, but also because I want to try my luck, because actually knowing that every time I add 1 bet, the chance of winning decreases.

[Obim34]

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

I enjoy my bet on few parlay, it doesn't need to be single though, because the risk on two different event is very unlikely to a safe option in a single parlay. Comparing your instance, I can conveniently go for the single parlay, the risk is still there is the odds on the option is heavier, it may not the justice to my win, but I look at the bet as a straight one, no two instances of one game interfering with the other.

[Lucius]

~snip~
Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

If we take into account that with a single bet on events that have three possible outcomes (1 X 2) you have a 33% chance of winning if you choose only one possible outcome or if we choose an event that has only two possible outcomes (1 2 - tennis for example), then it is logical to conclude that single is the best option for those who have money to play in such a way.

However, a carefully constructed parlay bet with lower odds may be a better choice, although statistically speaking the chances of winning in percentage terms are much lower than a single bet.

[Awaklara]

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

The lower the odds offered in betting, it usually gives bettors the confidence to place larger bets. But those odds do not necessarily guarantee a win. If deciding to include those bets in a parlay, I might only select two or three matches with smaller odds. If you have a habit of betting big, a return from 1.4 odds is probably not bad for a single bet. Everything will depend on your betting habits. Because there are indeed bettors who always make parlays of 3-5 matches.

[justdimin]

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

In my opinion, combining 2 singles into a parlay gives you a better chance. But I am just speaking from emotions and feelings rather than any relevant data. Although I usually make parlays when I am trying to hit something big, like 20-25x odds. If I am chasing 1.96x then I can find better single markets than a parlay because then I need to watch two games lol

Some sports have higher odds that happen more often like table tennis, so maybe if you want juicy odds on singles, go with those sports. While other sports like UFC have less upsets so if you want to combine many bets into a parlay then opt for such sports.

Again, I'm just speaking based on how I feel and not really based on data. I see many uspets in TT and very rarely in UFC, NBA, etc.

[freedomgo]

Again, I'm just speaking based on how I feel and not really based on data. I see many uspets in TT and very rarely in UFC, NBA, etc.

Nice observation, but for me it’s not that useful since I don’t really bet on that league. I’m more of a basketball fan, so I can say maybe around 90% of my bets are on the NBA. And you’re right, we rarely see that kind of scenario in the NBA, but at the same time it still doesn’t guarantee that lower odds will win.

That’s just how the system works, it feels like the odds are really designed for us to lose in the long run. So there’s no need to overthink too much, I think the better approach is to focus on single bets with odds not lower than 1.90.

[Hyphen(-)]

Parlay: 1.40 x 1.40 = 1.96 or Single bet at 1.96 ?

I actually tried this before, kind of like a small experiment, but it didn’t really last… I ended up losing anyway.

In my thinking, 1.40 odds should be “safer” since it has a higher chance of winning, but the problem is the payout is too low. So the idea is to combine two of them just to reach a decent odds like 1.96. But then again, once you combine it, you now need both bets to win. One mistake and everything is gone.

So now I’m not really sure anymore if that “safer odds” logic still holds when you turn it into a parlay.

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

There is no safer odd in gambling I must say because you can take as low as 1.15 odd and it will cut your game, so be it big off or small odd, I think it is up to you to take your risk based on your conviction.

Smaller odds actually have higher chances of winning, but it doesn’t mean you can’t lose in gambling. All you have to do is to calculate your risk and make your analysis well to be convinced with your prediction and bet it with the amount you feel you can afford to lose.

However, choosing double 1.45 odds will have higher probability of wining than straight 2.1 odds, so check and hi after safety even though no game is 100% guaranteed.

[Jubilee58]

Gone are the days when i was playing bet because of odds, to me, the pattern of betting with odd is old fashioned. Odds does not actually make you to win bet, and sometimes these bookmakers or betting platform uses odd to confuse gamblers. While small odds are likely to win, it is never a guarantee. If you want to place bet on a game(s) ensure to research on those games, know the strength of the clubs you are betting on and possibly the quality of players involved in that very match, then you will be able to make informed decision on how to bet your games.
There are times when big odds seems to be more favourable option, and there are times when small odds also seems to be more favourable, all depends on the form of the teams involved.

Small odds have failed me many times and likewise big odds but what really decides the option to choose is the teams present form and performance.

[mcdouglasx]

If we look at the math, the best option would be a single bet, because if one of the two 1.40 options is incorrectly calculated or inflated, it distorts the true probabilities since you have to rely on two independent events. However, I only advise doing this if you see a real probability that the single bet will win. Since there are many factors to consider, it ultimately depends on your own judgment. Remember that bookmakers don't give you a true probability in their odds; the odds are calculated depending on how much money is at stake for each team, so don't take it as an absolute truth.