Single or parlay?

[KTChampions]

It's basically the same. Let's convert the odds into probabilities.

Single odds

Code:

1/1.96 = 0.510 = 51% chance of winning

Parlay odds

Code:

1/1.40 = 0.714 = 71.4% Chance of winning
0.714*0.714 = 0.51 = 51% Chance of winning

Both options represent the same real mathematical chance of winning. So the idea that the parlay is safer because each leg is low-risk is an illusion.

In addition, it's not just this that is at play; there's also the house edge, right? Some sportsbooks put margins when gamblers use parlays, so be wary of that as well.

This is an incorrect calculation, you forgot to take into account the margin, although you know that it exists.
In the case of a single bet, the bookmaker takes the margin once, in the case of a multibet, the bookmaker takes the margin as many times as there are outcomes in the multibet. This is easily proven through calculations, since a multibet is equal to a series of single bets where the winnings from the first bet are fully reinvested in the second.
Therefore, if the odds are equal, a single bet is always more profitable.

[Strongkored]

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

Singles still have a better chance of winning, even with higher odds than parlays.
I've won on single bets at 2.00, but I've also lost on parlays with lower accumulated odds, and vice versa.
However, the reason I sometimes choose to place parlays is the desire for greater profits, but also because I want to try my luck, because actually knowing that every time I add 1 bet, the chance of winning decreases.

[Obim34]

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

I enjoy my bet on few parlay, it doesn't need to be single though, because the risk on two different event is very unlikely to a safe option in a single parlay. Comparing your instance, I can conveniently go for the single parlay, the risk is still there is the odds on the option is heavier, it may not the justice to my win, but I look at the bet as a straight one, no two instances of one game interfering with the other.

[Lucius]

~snip~
Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

If we take into account that with a single bet on events that have three possible outcomes (1 X 2) you have a 33% chance of winning if you choose only one possible outcome or if we choose an event that has only two possible outcomes (1 2 - tennis for example), then it is logical to conclude that single is the best option for those who have money to play in such a way.

However, a carefully constructed parlay bet with lower odds may be a better choice, although statistically speaking the chances of winning in percentage terms are much lower than a single bet.

[Awaklara]

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

The lower the odds offered in betting, it usually gives bettors the confidence to place larger bets. But those odds do not necessarily guarantee a win. If deciding to include those bets in a parlay, I might only select two or three matches with smaller odds. If you have a habit of betting big, a return from 1.4 odds is probably not bad for a single bet. Everything will depend on your betting habits. Because there are indeed bettors who always make parlays of 3-5 matches.

[justdimin]

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

In my opinion, combining 2 singles into a parlay gives you a better chance. But I am just speaking from emotions and feelings rather than any relevant data. Although I usually make parlays when I am trying to hit something big, like 20-25x odds. If I am chasing 1.96x then I can find better single markets than a parlay because then I need to watch two games lol

Some sports have higher odds that happen more often like table tennis, so maybe if you want juicy odds on singles, go with those sports. While other sports like UFC have less upsets so if you want to combine many bets into a parlay then opt for such sports.

Again, I'm just speaking based on how I feel and not really based on data. I see many uspets in TT and very rarely in UFC, NBA, etc.

[freedomgo]

Again, I'm just speaking based on how I feel and not really based on data. I see many uspets in TT and very rarely in UFC, NBA, etc.

Nice observation, but for me it’s not that useful since I don’t really bet on that league. I’m more of a basketball fan, so I can say maybe around 90% of my bets are on the NBA. And you’re right, we rarely see that kind of scenario in the NBA, but at the same time it still doesn’t guarantee that lower odds will win.

That’s just how the system works, it feels like the odds are really designed for us to lose in the long run. So there’s no need to overthink too much, I think the better approach is to focus on single bets with odds not lower than 1.90.

[Hyphen(-)]

Parlay: 1.40 x 1.40 = 1.96 or Single bet at 1.96 ?

I actually tried this before, kind of like a small experiment, but it didn’t really last… I ended up losing anyway.

In my thinking, 1.40 odds should be “safer” since it has a higher chance of winning, but the problem is the payout is too low. So the idea is to combine two of them just to reach a decent odds like 1.96. But then again, once you combine it, you now need both bets to win. One mistake and everything is gone.

So now I’m not really sure anymore if that “safer odds” logic still holds when you turn it into a parlay.

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

There is no safer odd in gambling I must say because you can take as low as 1.15 odd and it will cut your game, so be it big off or small odd, I think it is up to you to take your risk based on your conviction.

Smaller odds actually have higher chances of winning, but it doesn’t mean you can’t lose in gambling. All you have to do is to calculate your risk and make your analysis well to be convinced with your prediction and bet it with the amount you feel you can afford to lose.

However, choosing double 1.45 odds will have higher probability of wining than straight 2.1 odds, so check and hi after safety even though no game is 100% guaranteed.

[Jubilee58]

Gone are the days when i was playing bet because of odds, to me, the pattern of betting with odd is old fashioned. Odds does not actually make you to win bet, and sometimes these bookmakers or betting platform uses odd to confuse gamblers. While small odds are likely to win, it is never a guarantee. If you want to place bet on a game(s) ensure to research on those games, know the strength of the clubs you are betting on and possibly the quality of players involved in that very match, then you will be able to make informed decision on how to bet your games.
There are times when big odds seems to be more favourable option, and there are times when small odds also seems to be more favourable, all depends on the form of the teams involved.

Small odds have failed me many times and likewise big odds but what really decides the option to choose is the teams present form and performance.

[mcdouglasx]

If we look at the math, the best option would be a single bet, because if one of the two 1.40 options is incorrectly calculated or inflated, it distorts the true probabilities since you have to rely on two independent events. However, I only advise doing this if you see a real probability that the single bet will win. Since there are many factors to consider, it ultimately depends on your own judgment. Remember that bookmakers don't give you a true probability in their odds; the odds are calculated depending on how much money is at stake for each team, so don't take it as an absolute truth.

[Anayochukwu]

I still prefer single bet , I have tired it before  but it didn’t go well with me , the single bet payout is really low but I just prefer it than combining the both , the single bet remains the safer aside the payout but in all its balls down to luck , if you are not lucky enough everything may still go wrong , but any strategy that works for you or you think is safer , you can adopt it , as for me single bet is a kind of safer .

Yes, everything is still about luck but parlay chance of winning is small than single bets. But parlay has its own advantage which is because the odds are higher, small amount of money can be used. Example is a single match of 1.35 odd, but compare it to having an odd of 2 to 3 odds. The higher odd can encourage some gamblers to just reduce the amount of money that they will use to stake.

Yeah, luck plays a major role in determining the game and that is what we should always look at when we are on the game because only single bet or parlay can never guarantee you winnings in gambling. Of course both has their own advantage because parlays borst the odds more and you can easily use small amount to bet on it while single bet require a big stake before you would be able to get a reasonable win, so if we put everything together they almost work the same that is why we need to see luck as everything so that wouldn't get carried away by any of them.

[Slow death]

If you start from the principle that gambling is a form of entertainment, then you can make multi-bets like I have been doing. I think like this: single bets with odds of @3.00 or higher are very worthwhile if you have analyzed the game and concluded that you have a good chance of winning. Now, single bets with odds of @1.44 don't work in the long run. You might win 10 bets with odds of @1.44 and the profit will be very low.

And then someone comes along who makes a parlay with odds of @15.00, puts in $5 and wins, and with that their profit will be high. Even if they keep betting $5 on parlays with odds of @15.00 and they lose, they would still have to lose many times to incur losses. The point of parlaying is discipline and being able to win in many games.

I have been doing this; of course, I lose sometimes, but the point is that I win in some. Parlays with very high odds allow me to play without making new deposits. I'm not giving advice, I'm just reporting my experience, and I always tell people to view sports betting as entertainment; that way, people only put in small amounts and only money they can afford to lose.

[knuckey]

In my opinion, the safest bet is a single bet, but it will not always be profitable, parlay bets are very risky even if you only bet on 2 teams, because one failure will destroy everything, both have their respective advantages if single requires a slightly large capital while parlay will be more economical but with a higher risk

[Findingnemo]

Theoretically 2 low risk games should be compared to one high risky game, but it's not just as simple as that, there can be any day the weaker team can win against the stronger ones so you all still needs to be lucky to win the money even if you take the two low risky ones than just one high risky. But I always prefers the single games because parlay can mess you up unexpectedly.

[khiholangkang]

Parlay: 1.40 x 1.40 = 1.96 or Single bet at 1.96 ?

I actually tried this before, kind of like a small experiment, but it didn’t really last… I ended up losing anyway.

In my thinking, 1.40 odds should be “safer” since it has a higher chance of winning, but the problem is the payout is too low. So the idea is to combine two of them just to reach a decent odds like 1.96. But then again, once you combine it, you now need both bets to win. One mistake and everything is gone.

So now I’m not really sure anymore if that “safer odds” logic still holds when you turn it into a parlay.

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

The way to solve it is that you need to look at the match, say it's in soccer then you have to be really observant in assessing the four teams that will compete, when you have recognized it then certainly will see the potential, after that you can measure it with the odds in the bookie,
This can be a solution for us if we feel doubtful even though the odds shown by the bookie are relatively small which means the probability of winning is higher, but of course if you think there is a match that you think is doubtful it is better not to mix it into a parlay, enjoy the bet even though the odds are small, always remember not to force yourself to look for bigger profits.

[Antotena]

Parlay: 1.40 x 1.40 = 1.96 or Single bet at 1.96 ?

I actually tried this before, kind of like a small experiment, but it didn’t really last… I ended up losing anyway.

In my thinking, 1.40 odds should be “safer” since it has a higher chance of winning, but the problem is the payout is too low. So the idea is to combine two of them just to reach a decent odds like 1.96. But then again, once you combine it, you now need both bets to win. One mistake and everything is gone.

So now I’m not really sure anymore if that “safer odds” logic still holds when you turn it into a parlay.

Based on your experience, which one do you think actually gives better chance to be profitable? Do you stick with single bets even if the odds are higher, or do you still prefer combining lower odds to build value?

What you say doesn't matter. You can bet money on 6 odd and win while you may bet on another odd of 1.3 and lose the game. What matters is your prediction outcome, if you are very good at making good predictions, you will make good money and if you are bad at predictions, even the smallest odd will failed you. Yesterday, someone from my place bet ₦12M on Real Madrid to win with 6 odd and he won ₦72M, that's one of the dangerous bet I have seen in a while.

That yesterday Champions League, there were many people I know that bet on Manchester City to win and as well as Leverkusen to qualify but all of them loss there money. Did anyone expected Manchester City to lose at home? Even me, I didn't expect it even though I know Real Madrid will qualify but it's going to be a slap on Manchester City face to lose at home and lose at away but they proved that anyways that they were not ready.

[coinlary]

Low odds is also part of the game.
That it's low doesn't really mean it will be a hit. If it was that easy then everyone would have just picked lower odds for every selection and analysis would be pointless for every bet. Bookies are smart, and all they want is to get your money, odds are part of the strategy used.

Matches could also end with an unexpected result even if your picks are solid. It's one of the reasons parlay could be very tricky at times, yet I would say I prefer parlay more than single bets.

[GeorgeJohn]

It will be safer for you to choose a single bet instead of combining the both, it's obvious that if you combine the both, your chances of winning are slim...because 1 game can make you lose another...

The only thing in staking in single game, is that the odds will not be encouraging  or big, but the chances of wining is very close, but if you love a single games you can make the odds to be big by staking more higher amount, because the higher the amount you stake the higher your wining...

[Somto9Light]

Do not forget that you are gambling with house edge, which means in a way the gambling is designed for almost all bettors to be losing. But I make most profit from single bets than parlay. So I will say it is better you go for single bets instead of parlay but that does not guarantee winning over a long period of time.

Though you are right and also saying the facts as single bets might be much better and easier for one to have wins,whereas you can easily be in control and chances of having better odds but it's important to know that no wins is guarantees as one is dealing with gambling, which people are ought to gamble with the amount they can afford to easily lose and also should not have high hope in gambling as it can lead to disappointment.

[Sammye3]

I have a different analogy when betting and I see every odd as a risk no matter how small, because there could just be that one game that ruins the whole ticket. So I would rather go all in considering that 1.96 odd is not so "impossible"  for a win, compared to a parlay game which would only increase the risk level for a loss.