[NEWS]Argentina bans Polymarket for offering illegal gambling in the country

[acroman08]

I've posted a thread about Polymarket getting banned from a country before, and now I saw an article saying that Argentina has banned them for being an illegal gambling platform.

A judge from Argentina said that "the platform is an unregulated gambling operation, rather than a true prediction market". Also, the Argentinian court "ruled that the structure of the platform had circumvented gambling regulations and violated laws protecting consumers".

The article also said that the case about Polymarket was hastened after a controversy tied to Argentina’s inflation data release in February. The gambling regulator in Argentina said that the "activity on Polymarket shifted sharply just minutes before official figures were published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census". Basically, they suspect that the timing of the shift is suspicious and could be an indication that a Government data regarding the inflation data release in February might have been accessed and distributed, which could explain the sudden shift they saw minutes before the data was released to the public, which also made them view Polymarket as a potential case of insider trading.

Snippet from the article. If you want to read the full article, you can click the link I shared.

Local media reports that the National Communications Entity has directed Apple and Google to remove the app from their app stores.
This came after a legal case by the Buenos Aires City Lottery and the Argentine Chamber of Casinos against Polymarket, which claims it is operating as an illegal gambling platform. 

The case alleged that Polymarket allows users to place bets using cryptocurrencies and cards without a licence in the country while lacking identity checks and age restrictions, which made it a threat to minors and presented financial risks.

Judge Susana Parada described the platform as an unregulated betting operation, rather than a true prediction market. 

The court ruled that the structure of the platform had circumvented gambling regulations and violated laws protecting consumers.

Regulators cited the absence of oversight measures typically required of regulated platforms, including the need to comply with Know Your Customer requirements and prevent illegal money services.

The case gained urgency following a controversy tied to Argentina’s February inflation data release. 

According to regulators, activity on Polymarket shifted sharply just minutes before official figures were published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census. 

The platform adjusted to the correct 2.9% inflation rate roughly 15 minutes ahead of the announcement, prompting scrutiny from authorities.
Officials interpreted the timing as evidence that sensitive government data may have been accessed or disseminated prematurely.

Rather than reflecting predictive accuracy, regulators viewed the activity as a potential case of insider trading facilitated through a decentralised system.

The incident intensified concerns about the platform’s capacity to enable data arbitrage and undermine confidence in official economic reporting.

[Agbamoni]

The numbers will keep growing over the years, as the government has not figured out the right way to regulate prediction markets.
I dont know if it is true, correct me if I'm wrong. From my research, 30+ countries have restricted Polymarket from their country. Some are due to regulatory issues and illegal gambling, while some are because gambling is prohibited in the country.

[Japinat]

The numbers will keep growing over the years, as the government has not figured out the right way to regulate prediction markets.
I dont know if it is true, correct me if I'm wrong. From my research, 30+ countries have restricted Polymarket from their country. Some are due to regulatory issues and illegal gambling, while some are because gambling is prohibited in the country.

But the question is, even if they ban Polymarket, can they really stop their citizens from accessing it?

I mean if people can use Polymarket without going through strict KYC, then anyone, even from countries where gambling is banned, can still find a way to use the platform. They’re probably just hoping that Polymarket doesn’t mess with them, because going up against an established prediction market with a lot of resources would be a tough legal battle.

[acroman08]

But the question is, even if they ban Polymarket, can they really stop their citizens from accessing it?

I mean if people can use Polymarket without going through strict KYC, then anyone, even from countries where gambling is banned, can still find a way to use the platform. They’re probably just hoping that Polymarket doesn’t mess with them, because going up against an established prediction market with a lot of resources would be a tough legal battle.

Not fully, but it could deter some people from accessing Polymarket once they know it is banned from their country, I mean, it's probably not uncommon for people to avoid platforms that are banned in their country, even if they can still access it through a VPN.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I have lost count of the number of country that has banned polymarket and another prediction market too, I think the first threas I saw was last late year when a Romania first banned the prediction market, here, later another country did and it doesn't seem like it's going to end with those ones, probably there are more bans coming for them since they accusation is usually that they are offering illegal gambling. The company is already popular, I guess that these bans they are getting will not affect them very too much since some people could still be using VPN to access the website from restricted region.

[EluguHcman]

A judge from Argentina said that "the platform is an unregulated gambling operation, rather than a true prediction market". Also, the Argentinian court "ruled that the structure of the platform had circumvented gambling regulations and violated laws protecting consumers".

The article also said that the case about Polymarket was hastened after a controversy tied to Argentina’s inflation data release in February. The gambling regulator in Argentina said that the "activity on Polymarket shifted sharply just minutes before official figures were published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census". Basically, they suspect that the timing of the shift is suspicious and could be an indication that a Government data regarding the inflation data release in February might have been accessed and distributed, which could explain the sudden shift they saw minutes before the data was released to the public, which also made them view Polymarket as a potential case of insider trading.

That is the power of the government, when won't agree to their terms, they would kick you out.
I am sure that the platform had been banned for not reimbursing those in charge of their own quota of the profits the prediction market earns for featuring their own social and economic.

I have come to name certain level to understand that the government's interests regulating casinos, gambling or prediction markets is just for the sake of revenues generated through tasks.
Other than that there is no responsible roles they play situated to the favour of the masses or platform users.
 
So I'm not surprised learning about this action of the Argentina government over a prediction platform penalized with this excuse.

[SmartGold01]

There would be a time whew most country would ban polymarket because they are claiming to operate as predictions market but dip inside they are gambling site, and most countries that ban gambling and allows predictions market would be think that they are not gambling site, and later if they found out they would also mind banning them as well. To me predictions market is also regarded as gambling site because whatever you put to make money is tantamount to gambling and their offense should be they same. This site has been operating on so many countries without them legally have their operational license from the said countries they are operating from. Of course, when more countries began to understand how they functions they wouldn't mind banning them as well because they do not legally purchase the operational license from the said country being Argentina.

[Mindyspace]

From what I understand, Polymarket was banned in Argentina mainly because it was seen as an unregulated betting platform, lacking basic controls like KYC and age restrictions. But what really aggravated the situation was the suspicion that inflation data may have leaked before the official announcement, since the market adjusted minutes before, raising a possible question of insider trading.

In this case, do you think this was a coincidence of the market being efficient or is there really something suspicious behind it?

[Odohu]

The numbers will keep growing over the years, as the government has not figured out the right way to regulate prediction markets.
I dont know if it is true, correct me if I'm wrong. From my research, 30+ countries have restricted Polymarket from their country. Some are due to regulatory issues and illegal gambling, while some are because gambling is prohibited in the country.

You are right about the number of countries that have restricted polymarket from their country and the list is getting longer every day. The main reason is just regulation, they don't know how to regulate polymarket, you know most of those countries survive through taxes and allowing a business that big to flourish without taxes is something the government are not willing to allow. If they are able to work out a way of regulating polymarket, those restrictions would be lifted.

[lodocus]

Polymarket offers a wide range of services where you can risk your money. You can gamble there outright, or you can use it as a true prediction market. If they were banned because the platform offers both, I think they were right. That’s because they offer everything you’d find on a betting platform, just in a different format. Instead of seeing the odds directly, you see the probability of events occurring.

[nelson4lov]

Their reason for banning Polymarket is not justified one bit. If you suspect insider trading, you've to look within the government itself to see who is directly benefitting from such information and also ensure that only trustworthy people have access to such information. Just banning polymarket won't solve the issue. Those culprits can still go to smaller prediction markets and execute their insider trades over there.

[Fiatless]

I am also suspecting that government information in the US is also leaked to some users of Polymarket. There have been suspicions of government officials or people close to them getting prior information about the tariff, the kidnapping of the Venezuelan President, and others before the incident takes place. The government needs to check these claims and ensure that the culprits are punished.

The concern about minors using the platforms due to a lack of identity checks is valid. Polymarket would have to respect the laws of Argentina for them to operate freely. Instead of totally banning Polymarket, they should have been mandated to take necessary remedial steps.

[noorman0]

The scale of prediction markets increases over time, just like other types of businesses in the financial industry, where people get hyped. When governments see a growing business that should be contributing to revenue (taxes) but isn't receiving any, they have to enact laws to restrict it. I wouldn't be surprised if more countries take similar action in the future.

[lombok]

I am also suspecting that government information in the US is also leaked to some users of Polymarket. There have been suspicions of government officials or people close to them getting prior information about the tariff, the kidnapping of the Venezuelan President, and others before the incident takes place. The government needs to check these claims and ensure that the culprits are punished.

The concern about minors using the platforms due to a lack of identity checks is valid. Polymarket would have to respect the laws of Argentina for them to operate freely. Instead of totally banning Polymarket, they should have been mandated to take necessary remedial steps.

The claim of leakage of insider information to Polymarket is certainly grave and may harm the trust of the people once proven. Full transparency should be insisted upon to obstruct the officials who cheat to make a fortune out of tariff information or any sensitive political issues such as that. Speaking specifically of minors, it is a fact that the complete blockade is not the most suitable option; making them enforce their identity checkup system (KYC) would be more appropriate. This would make their operations legal and in-compliance.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I'm not surprised by the news, lately Polymarket has been accused of manipulation and there were even death threats associated with it. So this could be just the start for this platform to get banned from countries.

And I do agree that the numbers are going to increased in the coming months as this services has been exposed already. And we all know that if there is a hype, then some entity could be behind it and making millions and this is what has been the story of Polymarket.

[freedomgo]

I think there’s not much difference between Kalshi and Polymarket. I remember seeing a post before about Kalshi being sued for scamming users, so I guess from a country’s perspective, these kinds of prediction platforms can be easily manipulated, and they’re just trying to protect people from becoming victims.

So for me, I still prefer the typical sportsbooks since they focus on sports markets only, not on events that probably shouldn’t even be offered for betting.

[tabas]

Polymarket doesn't mind and is expecting this reaction from one of their market's government. They'll only have to comply if they're asked to for them to get registered. But I guess that they'll study how the demand is there and how it goes. Even with such ban, if there are a lot of users from that country they can still access it and use VPN for their sake. So, aside from the betting predictions that they can manipulate. It's simply all about the license that the fact they're not registered in Argentina, if they want to follow suit they'll do that.

[Hispo]

To be it is pretty obvious there are inside traders dealing with privileged information about the Argentina Economy, in that case, it is very good the government of Argentina to point which inconsistencies out and let people know they may be getting scammed by inside traders in the dare to participate in the most vulnerable markets.

On the other hands, realistically there is no way for the government of a country like Argentina to ban a website, people will continue to access to it from Argentina, through the use of VPNs or Tor.