[NEWS]Argentina bans Polymarket for offering illegal gambling in the country

[nimogsm]

From what I understand, Polymarket was banned in Argentina mainly because it was seen as an unregulated betting platform, lacking basic controls like KYC and age restrictions. But what really aggravated the situation was the suspicion that inflation data may have leaked before the official announcement, since the market adjusted minutes before, raising a possible question of insider trading.

In this case, do you think this was a coincidence of the market being efficient or is there really something suspicious behind it?

I'm also convinced that one of the reasons for the bans in various countries is simply the leaking of insider information. There have already been numerous cases where events related to politics and wars have accidentally become events, and someone has profited from it.It's more likely that the leaders of countries simply don't yet understand how to regulate it, so they simply ban it because it's more convenient.

[suzanne5223]

Based on everything stated in the news, reportedly stated by OP. There's indeed a lot of manipulation going on lately through the Polymarket prediction service, and if the team does not find a long lasting solution to it, it may affect the platform service in the future, especially when they choose not to be regulated based on the gambling platform model of operation in the country they choose to operate.

[mikel_012]

From what I understand, Polymarket was banned in Argentina mainly because it was seen as an unregulated betting platform, lacking basic controls like KYC and age restrictions. But what really aggravated the situation was the suspicion that inflation data may have leaked before the official announcement, since the market adjusted minutes before, raising a possible question of insider trading.

In this case, do you think this was a coincidence of the market being efficient or is there really something suspicious behind it?

I'm also convinced that one of the reasons for the bans in various countries is simply the leaking of insider information. There have already been numerous cases where events related to politics and wars have accidentally become events, and someone has profited from it.It's more likely that the leaders of countries simply don't yet understand how to regulate it, so they simply ban it because it's more convenient.

One of the reasons was many suspicious bets that appeared before the official inflation data release from Argentina. So it was clear there was insider betting with employees from the government knowing the numbers and betting before.

They worry a lot about the verification of the age of players and with polymarket anyone can create an account and bet in minutes without proving they have enough age to bet.

I think it's likely that another website maybe like Kalshi will implement proper checks and receive approval to operate in the country.

[nimogsm]

From what I understand, Polymarket was banned in Argentina mainly because it was seen as an unregulated betting platform, lacking basic controls like KYC and age restrictions. But what really aggravated the situation was the suspicion that inflation data may have leaked before the official announcement, since the market adjusted minutes before, raising a possible question of insider trading.

In this case, do you think this was a coincidence of the market being efficient or is there really something suspicious behind it?

I'm also convinced that one of the reasons for the bans in various countries is simply the leaking of insider information. There have already been numerous cases where events related to politics and wars have accidentally become events, and someone has profited from it.It's more likely that the leaders of countries simply don't yet understand how to regulate it, so they simply ban it because it's more convenient.

One of the reasons was many suspicious bets that appeared before the official inflation data release from Argentina. So it was clear there was insider betting with employees from the government knowing the numbers and betting before.

They worry a lot about the verification of the age of players and with polymarket anyone can create an account and bet in minutes without proving they have enough age to bet.

I think it's likely that another website maybe like Kalshi will implement proper checks and receive approval to operate in the country.

By and large, such sites don't particularly care about government approval, as bets are anonymous, and finding the person who placed the bet or created the event is virtually impossible. The only thing they can do is block the site within their own country. Even amid the scandal surrounding the creation of a forecast related to the invasion of Iran, has the insider been found? No, and it's unlikely anyone will look for one. This is a good tool for wealthy people with inside information. The rich will only get richer.

[Hispo]

Based on everything stated in the news, reportedly stated by OP. There's indeed a lot of manipulation going on lately through the Polymarket prediction service, and if the team does not find a long lasting solution to it, it may affect the platform service in the future, especially when they choose not to be regulated based on the gambling platform model of operation in the country they choose to operate.

It is quite unrealistic to assume Polymarket is going to change the way they operate just because they have some minor legal problems in Argentina, actually the Argentine market may not be even an important percentage of their income or volume. So Polymarket does not have anything to be afraid of, at least economically.

They would only start to take these things seriously in the case other bigger and more influential governments took the same steps of Argentina and ruled there is actual and blatant manipulation on their website, banning it from their highly profitable countries.

Time will tell, but I would not hold my breath and see if they are going to get banned in the USA or the European Union.

[alani123]

The funny thing about polymarket is that it doesn't care whatever country bans it because it's so much crypto focused, the only way to exclude a country is if they decide to implement KYC and restrict them from their side.

Most crypto users would likely be aware of what VPNs are and I highly doubt a crypto-focused casino would bother to ever seek national licenses especially given how corrupt these schemes have been historically.

[terrific]

I'm also convinced that one of the reasons for the bans in various countries is simply the leaking of insider information. There have already been numerous cases where events related to politics and wars have accidentally become events, and someone has profited from it.It's more likely that the leaders of countries simply don't yet understand how to regulate it, so they simply ban it because it's more convenient.

There can be a deeper reason beyond that. And not only about the leaking of insider's information.
But by not being registered and yet, Polymarket has got a lot of users in Argentina that the government has figured out.
How many local casinos are there which are registered? compared to Poly and maybe other casinos that are being used by its locals.
They're losing the market that should be for the local casinos that are operating legally and that's why they have to do this.

[lombok]

There can be a deeper reason beyond that. And not only about the leaking of insider's information.
But by not being registered and yet, Polymarket has got a lot of users in Argentina that the government has figured out.
How many local casinos are there which are registered? compared to Poly and maybe other casinos that are being used by its locals.
They're losing the market that should be for the local casinos that are operating legally and that's why they have to do this.

This view of the business competition between the local casinos and the international global platforms such as Polymarket is understandable. We must realise that the government would be annoyed with the possibility of substantial revenues being channelled out of the country without express levies on the same. The existence of official casino locally registered would certainly feel unfair since their rules are far more severe than that of unregistered sites. This action appears to be a means of self defence on their own market.

[sunsilk]

The funny thing about polymarket is that it doesn't care whatever country bans it because it's so much crypto focused, the only way to exclude a country is if they decide to implement KYC and restrict them from their side.

Most crypto users would likely be aware of what VPNs are and I highly doubt a crypto-focused casino would bother to ever seek national licenses especially given how corrupt these schemes have been historically.

This is likely them, they're not going to care about getting licenses for this ban that they have received. But we'll see if a huge number of users is found to a country and later on banned them.

Maybe they'll not ignore that and let it pass because if the market share that they're getting from the gamblers on those countries that might ban them.

That's a big loss for the revenue to them and so we might see them comply soon in any of them. No one knows but only time can tell.

[knuckey]

A great idea from Argentina. If a site is found cheating in business, the action taken is indeed a ban. Argentina seems to care about its people and understands that there are known indications of fraud in Polymarket. Argentina is moving quickly to resolve this. Those who trade like this are truly cunning and seek to profit by manipulating the market with people they know. Of course, I'm sure the people inside are also whales.

[terrific]

There can be a deeper reason beyond that. And not only about the leaking of insider's information.
But by not being registered and yet, Polymarket has got a lot of users in Argentina that the government has figured out.
How many local casinos are there which are registered? compared to Poly and maybe other casinos that are being used by its locals.
They're losing the market that should be for the local casinos that are operating legally and that's why they have to do this.

This view of the business competition between the local casinos and the international global platforms such as Polymarket is understandable. We must realise that the government would be annoyed with the possibility of substantial revenues being channelled out of the country without express levies on the same. The existence of official casino locally registered would certainly feel unfair since their rules are far more severe than that of unregistered sites. This action appears to be a means of self defence on their own market.

That's right, any government where they are having a revenue from their people will be a slap to the system.
Because that revenue must be taxed and because that polymarket is not registered on them, they get nothing and yet polymarket gets pure profit from their jurisdiction.
So, in that standpoint. It's understandable why they're taking these actions and not only to the manipulation and leaking of the predictions that are made into their platform.

[Josefjix]

Sometimes they may not be operating illegally but sometimes their predictions usually has a shift in it am thereby affecting former bettors, . For example, in the case of Iran happened recently, there was a prediction that says, how long will the newly elected commander gets replaced from the Iranian war before April, "Without mentioning death as one of the options" but he got replaced before the time through death, polymarket altered the predictions why the act was caught and reported.

Maybe because of this similar act Argentina government might have discovered and decided to place ban on it.

If actually polymarket keeps behaving this way,  they gonna lose their reputation very soon.

[mikel_012]

By and large, such sites don't particularly care about government approval, as bets are anonymous, and finding the person who placed the bet or created the event is virtually impossible. The only thing they can do is block the site within their own country. Even amid the scandal surrounding the creation of a forecast related to the invasion of Iran, has the insider been found? No, and it's unlikely anyone will look for one. This is a good tool for wealthy people with inside information. The rich will only get richer.

Sometimes the insider will be found, but it's hard and it does not happen very often because they can cover their tracks and just bet with crypto from an anonymous wallet.

A mr beast editor was fined because he was betting on words Mr Best would say in the video

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77ed1e2r6zo

[suzanne5223]

Based on everything stated in the news, reportedly stated by OP. There's indeed a lot of manipulation going on lately through the Polymarket prediction service, and if the team does not find a long lasting solution to it, it may affect the platform service in the future, especially when they choose not to be regulated based on the gambling platform model of operation in the country they choose to operate.

It is quite unrealistic to assume Polymarket is going to change the way they operate just because they have some minor legal problems in Argentina, actually the Argentine market may not be even an important percentage of their income or volume. So Polymarket does not have anything to be afraid of, at least economically.

They would only start to take these things seriously in the case other bigger and more influential governments took the same steps of Argentina and ruled there is actual and blatant manipulation on their website, banning it from their highly profitable countries.

Time will tell, but I would not hold my breath and see if they are going to get banned in the USA or the European Union.

I'm not talking about the platform being afraid, and neither did I talk about the Argentine market providing an important percentage of volume for the prediction market platform, but I was talking about the model of doing business on foreign soil. Every country has its own rules and regulations which gambling platforms must follow, no matter how small or big the country is, so far the company has gone to do business on their soil. Besides, the country we're talking about is ranked 35th according to the world population as of early this year, and they are highly ranked in sports/prediction market gambling, so PolyMarket providing service there seems important for the platform to keep operating on the Argentine soil; they have to conclude.

As you said, time will tell, but if the PolyMarket team is serious about gaining more ground in the South American countries that don't joke with sports, etc., they need to do the right thing.

[Hispo]

...

As you said, time will tell, but if the PolyMarket team is serious about gaining more ground in the South American countries that don't joke with sports, etc., they need to do the right thing.

It seems to me that it is very clear and obvious that big companies from the United States and Europe do not seem to care much about whatever regulations smaller and less relevant countries have.
For example, there are online services (even unrelated to gambling) which comply with regulations and norms in the United States and Europe, but do not check whether they are operating within the laws a of south American countries, like mine.
It is taken for granted that if a service complies with EU and the USA, then they can offer whatever they have to offer in markets within the third world.

That is also the case with polymarket. They won't bother to check if there is something wrong with their service if the country of conflict is small and irrelevant.

[Orpichukwu]

A great idea from Argentina. If a site is found cheating in business, the action taken is indeed a ban. Argentina seems to care about its people and understands that there are known indications of fraud in Polymarket. Argentina is moving quickly to resolve this. Those who trade like this are truly cunning and seek to profit by manipulating the market with people they know. Of course, I'm sure the people inside are also whales.

The reason for the ban could also be linked to the prediction platform not being properly regulated in the country. Before the challenge of them being suspected of not being fair enough with their service, the types of events which were being made available for prediction were questionable, and some people really didn't like it. There might be more to why the country banned them; if they want the audience from the country, they can go resolve it with them amicably.