Bitcoin’s Second Leg: War and Global Inflation

[Alpen]

Bitcoin's late‑February run coincided with the outbreak of fighting in Iran. But that rally from $65K to $70K was by no means just some random speculative pump. It coincided with coins being pulled hard off exchanges and, at the same time, a flood of money into BTC ETFs. Both metrics tell the same story: strong demand from hodlers and institutions during the conflict.



Now for the plot twist. The region where war broke out is the commodities heart of the global economy. Oil and gas prices have already shot through the roof. Judging by the US wholesale price indicator, inflation is already starting to heat up—and all the gold piled up by central banks will be sold off to prop up national economies.

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis. That gave crypto its first step up from the bottom. The war was predictable. But crypto still answers to market rules—and price factors everything in. Yesterday's Fed rate freeze rolled the price back to $70K. Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

[Yaunfitda]

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis. That gave crypto its first step up from the bottom. The war was predictable. But crypto still answers to market rules—and price factors everything in. Yesterday's Fed rate freeze rolled the price back to $70K. Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

But we don't know when will the conflict will end. So it's better to really not hear this noises from the outside. If we believed that Bitcoin is the best hedge against conflict, preservation at this trying times, then so be it. Just continue to accumulate and HODL for the longest time. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we should be looking at the bigger picture. Right now it's good to see $70k++, but still we don't know, as far as cycle goes, we should be in the bear market. But then again, we could be seeing super-cycle and we might see the price not going below $70k but instead, become bullish for all we know.