Bitcoin Near Crucial Support

[ImThour]

Bitcoin Near Crucial Support



Hi everyone, I am back with another important chart - Bitcoin is about to reach the long term crucial support trendline, which was the bottom back in 2022, and even survived the COVID crash.
It's a trendline that has been respected for literally 8 years by Bitcoin's Price Action.

As soon as BTC Bitcoin closes below $60,000 on Weekly Candle, this support will be broken.


If we look at the Cycle Low Multiple Chart, Bitcoin is about to go down just like every other cycle.


The next Bitcoin bottom will be in First Week of Oct, 2026 if we follow the 364 days pattern, which was executed in past two cycles as shown below.


Let's see how this cycle ends up, I will catch you up in the next post.
Good Luck, All the Best for Upcoming Cycle! <3

[(BTC)]

I think the spike in oil prices due to the pool being closed might be followed by a recession just like in 1975, 1990, 2001, and 2008.

BTC price will most likely face collateral damage from everything else crashing if that happens. Private credit, circular funding, and overvaluation of AI/LLM companies are the culprits this time instead of housing.

Do you think that the 4 year cycle will line up with the possible recession or the BTC price behavior will act independently from it? October is still 6 months away and a lot can happen involving the broader world ecomony/markets between now and then.

Nice post btw, cool charts. 

[Wapfika]

I think the spike in oil prices due to the pool being closed might be followed by a recession just like in 1975, 1990, 2001, and 2008.

BTC price will most likely face collateral damage from everything else crashing if that happens. Private credit, circular funding, and overvaluation of AI/LLM companies are the culprits this time instead of housing.

Do you think that the 4 year cycle will line up with the possible recession or the BTC price behavior will act independently from it? October is still 6 months away and a lot can happen involving the broader world ecomony/markets between now and then.

Nice post btw, cool charts. 

Pandemic during COVID-19 outbreak is ultimate proof that Bitcoin will be fine even with recession since Bitcoin is being used to hedge against economic crisis. The price pump and recovers after the sharp fall even the pandemic back then is still in effect and hurt the global economy.


It’s been a long time since I look on chart for a long trend line but that shows both positive and negative depending on what will be the movement on the price when it touches the trend line.

[Zaguru12]

Do you think that the 4 year cycle will line up with the possible recession or the BTC price behavior will act independently from it? October is still 6 months away and a lot can happen involving the broader world ecomony/markets between now and then.

The BTC price wouldn’t actually act independently but will always get influenced by this global market, if recession actually hits the world economy then bitcoin will react. The reaction though depends on the investors take, could me more demand for bitcoin in time when people actually do want to get away from anything fiat currency or more supply for it.

Yes October is two quarters away and you might be thinking about the events that could unfold in this period of time that could actually Changes bitcoin market trend. This analysis by OP is just his own personal prediction but I tell you with it been an historical trend it might happen, bitcoin has the ability to consolidate for so long in midst crisis just to actually fill the inducement at that support. The timing though might not be accurate due to the fact that bitcoin cannot be perfectly predicted

[hugeblack]

It's good to see you're doing well.

As soon as BTC Bitcoin closes below $60,000 on Weekly Candle, this support will be broken.

At least the bottom looks above $36,000, which is a good thing. we can expect the worst is yet to come.

[Free Market Capitalist]

At least the bottom looks above $36,000, which is a good thing. we can expect the worst is yet to come.

I like that you're optimistic. I, on the other hand, would view it negatively. Anything below $60,000 before next month would be a disaster in my eyes, as it would mean a negative 5-year return. To date, Bitcoin has yielded a return of just 23% over the past five years, underperforming both gold and the U.S. stock market. Turning negative would be a blow.

[hugeblack]

I like that you're optimistic. I, on the other hand, would view it negatively. Anything below $60,000 before next month would be a disaster in my eyes, as it would mean a negative 5-year return.

I don't think the last five years have been normal enough to judge Bitcoin's long-term trend; it's been roughly the craziest six years in decades. Let's hope the worst is yet to come, something above $35,000.

[Free Market Capitalist]

I don't think the last five years have been normal enough to judge Bitcoin's long-term trend; it's been roughly the craziest six years in decades. Let's hope the worst is yet to come, something above $35,000.

 

Bitcoin isn't even two decades old, so talking about “decades” in the plural makes my head spin. Given that Bitcoin has been around for 17 years, talking about a 5-year period means looking at 30% of that time, which is a significant time frame.

Furthermore, it’s more common to rely on recent years to predict what might happen in the future rather than on more distant ones. We shouldn’t expect that with a price of $70K and a market cap of $1.41 trillion, returns will exceed 1,000 percent as they did in some of the early years. It is normal for an asset that matures and grows in price and market cap for returns to flatten out, as has happened over the past 5 years. While this does not mean the price will remain flat in the future, I do believe we should not have very high expectations for future returns (though if, for whatever reason, the future price of Bitcoin surprises us positively, so much the better).

[MinMan]

At least the bottom looks above $36,000, which is a good thing. we can expect the worst is yet to come.

I like that you're optimistic. I, on the other hand, would view it negatively. Anything below $60,000 before next month would be a disaster in my eyes, as it would mean a negative 5-year return. To date, Bitcoin has yielded a return of just 23% over the past five years, underperforming both gold and the U.S. stock market. Turning negative would be a blow.

What makes it look optimistic is when he say above $36k but overall both are still negative (at least for us) because we are born to be bullish on Bitcoin . But what about when the price drops below $60k next month? Would that makes it not a disaster anymore?

But maybe you are only thinking that the decline is quick if it catches up on the last minutes of this month and then it equates to continuing on the next month. Even if that is true, I still don't think that it can last a long time. As you said, Bitcoin gained 23%, therefore it did not have a negative performance over the 5 year course. In fact, Bitcoin blown up last time, saying it surpass Gold and maybe even the U.S stock market.

[Free Market Capitalist]

What makes it look optimistic is when he say above $36k but overall both are still negative (at least for us) because we are born to be bullish on Bitcoin . But what about when the price drops below $60k next month? Would that makes it not a disaster anymore?

I am not born to be anything. I prefer to observe what happens in the real world and draw conclusions from it.

As you said, Bitcoin gained 23%, therefore it did not have a negative performance over the 5 year course.

23% compounded. That's the total return for 5 years, it's like 4% a year. It's pretty shitty, especially compared to former Bitcoin returns.

In fact, Bitcoin blown up last time, saying it surpass Gold and maybe even the U.S stock market.

I'm not sure exactly what time period you're referring to. But on a positive note, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of strong growth cycles in the future, well above that 4% annual rate. What we do need to be aware of is the historical price trend and what it takes to push a market cap of $1.4 trillion higher. So better to be cautious when expecting future price rises and if reality surprises us with higher returns, the better.