What political trap is Bitcoin going to face in the future

[Donneski]

Op raised strong points. I think if Donald Trump continues to talk about buying and holding Bitcoin, it could influence sentiment at least in the short term and if the U.S. actually used Bitcoin to pay debts, the market could spike.

That said , a total collapse afterwards is very unlikely to happen and that's because there so many other players and factors that affect the market.

[betswift]

Op raised strong points. I think if Donald Trump continues to talk about buying and holding Bitcoin, it could influence sentiment at least in the short term and if the U.S. actually used Bitcoin to pay debts, the market could spike.

That said , a total collapse afterwards is very unlikely to happen and that's because there so many other players and factors that affect the market.

We may see a downtrend afterward, similar to what happens after any upward moment that is a spike, and we should be seeing it if Trump will be willing to go and take this exact route. Nothing new to it

[rat03gopoh]

... if Bitcoin opposes Bitcoin...

What you're trying to say, I really don't understand this shitpoint.
If Trump is going to use his strategic Bitcoin reserves to pay off US debt, it won't happen until your grandchild have kids. Even with today's total Bitcoin cap, it can only pay about 2-4% of the total $40 trillion US debt, which only covers one year of interest.

[Catenaccio]

I hate the fact that Bitcoin is to tide to US, its understandable that US rock the world but this is too much, it's more about politics than what we want as adoption. We don't want Trump to say we should hold, we want the government to make it possible for everyone to want to hold Bitcoin, imagine Bitcoin become a legal tender in the US, the narrative of the market will change, the US micro and macro economy will shift to one side until the fomo is done before we will come back to those factors.

It's not only Bitcoin but many things in the world can be severely affected by political changes and other policy changes in the USA. It's mainly because the USA is a big nation with big economy so that its global effects are huge in logical ways. Bitcoin is not an exception and it's only similar to all other assets, markets which all can be affected by the USA policies and stock market movements in that nation.

With time, Bitcoin blockchain becomes bigger, more decentralized from mining hashrate in total and in distribution, as well as node distributions, and other things like market trading volume so that generally Bitcoin will become stronger with time. Effects are unavoidable but Bitcoin has no longer been extremely sensitive and vulnerable to deaths.

[yhiaali3]

Trump is a great deceiver and fickle in his opinions and may turn against his allies at any time. Therefore, as we all know, he was initially hostile to Bitcoin and then changed his mind. So it is not surprising that he would change his mind and be hostile to Bitcoin again after achieving his personal interests and paying off the United States' debts.

In any case, Bitcoin is not linked to the policies of any country, neither the United States nor any other and it is not linked to any economy either. Therefore I personally do not see any fear for Bitcoin now or in the future.

[Minor Miner]

Since Bitcoin is not under anyone's control, Bitcoin is a completely decentralized currency. So if someone wants to control the price of Bitcoin or blame the market, then he may have to have a lot of Bitcoin and that person or country must be very powerful. As we can see, currently Donald Trump is talking a lot about Bitcoin and he is encouraging everyone to hold and buy Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is Decentralized and the market prices can always be manipulated by the economy and political news while investors attributes with their short and long term trading activities is also event that has the potential influence to manipulate the Bitcoin prices.

No one of influence has the autonomous ability to control Bitcoin price within their directives, you can only influence investors and adoption.

Volatility is always unpredictable.

It seems OP is telling the United States or Donald Trump will start owning Bitcoin and start manipulating so it will be in their favor, like basically pump it and then sell it in the future to make profits and pay all of their debt? Well, that's not how it works because if Bitcoin works like that for sure there are already other countries will do it or other billionaires will start doing it.

In theory, it is possible, but there is a huge gap between theory and practice. They would face significant risk if the market react the opposite way. Because there is no guarantee that once they accumulate enough bitcoin and drive the price up to sell, other countries and investors will rush in to buy at that time? Not every investor is foolish enough to buy Bitcoin when its price is already so high. Easier said than done.

Furthermore, the US public debt currently exceeds $39 trillion, meaning they would need to spend trillions of dollars to implement that plan. But government budgets are limited, and they would not be foolish enough to spend trillions of dollars on something so uncertain.

The idea of ​​using Bitcoin to pay off national debt is neither a secret nor extraordinary to the point that only geniuses could come up with it. The problem is, it is easier said than done, and that is why he keep rambling on about it without ever actually doing it.

[Amphenomenon]

Bitcoin is not a Trump thing!

According to you and a tiny number of Bitcoin hard-cores who like to post here, that's true.

But to most Americans today, Bitcoin is a Trump thing.

I will love to see the data you are using to back your claim?

-Snip-

Trump has more power and influence definitely but it won't take that number of years, investors will decline but will gradually increase within the space of 5 to 10 years, and then after such breakout I wonder what will be any hindrance against Bitcoin? This is the last major influence to deal with and adoption rate will overall be constantly in the rise.

[legiteum]

But to most Americans today, Bitcoin is a Trump thing.

I will love to see the data you are using to back your claim?

I'm too lazy to look this up right now, but if you google it, you'll find a strong Republican bias in crypto buyers based on data before Republican donors spent over a billion dollars on campaign financing in 2024, so it's logical that the bias is much stronger now, to the point that popular consumer sentiment as been permanently altered. It doesn't take much to move a consumer brand like this, and things like NASCAR or MyPillow are pretty much stuck being Trump/Republican for a very long time.
[/quote]

Trump has more power and influence definitely but it won't take that number of years, investors will decline but will gradually increase within the space of 5 to 10 years, and then after such breakout I wonder what will be any hindrance against Bitcoin? This is the last major influence to deal with and adoption rate will overall be constantly in the rise.

I said basically the same thing, except my timeframe was further out. This will depend on the political fortunes of Trump and his family (I believe Trump Jr. is the most likely next Republican candidate for president for instance). But it's possible that Trump could fade a little faster than that as you are saying here.

As for hinderance for Bitcoin in... 10 years? 10 years is a long, long, LONG time in the world of technology. Bitcoin already has thousands of competitors and some very large ones already, and technologically it is not strong at all compared to its competitors--it only has its brand name that gives it value. I think the market for digital currencies is going to be very different in 2 years, let alone 10 years...

[davis196]

If we look at the debt of the United States, we will see that it is not easy for the United States to repay this debt. Keeping this in mind, if Donald Trump tells everyone to hold and buy Bitcoin and if the United States announces that they will pay their debts with Bitcoin. Because as we can see, the price of Bitcoin is very low at the moment or the market is falling. If they buy Bitcoin at this time or if they buy Bitcoin after the market falls further and if they announce that they will pay their debts with Bitcoin, then depending on their comments, many will buy and the price of Bitcoin will increase. However, if after the debt is settled, if Bitcoin opposes Bitcoin, then I can see a very big fall in the Bitcoin market. The biggest reason for doing this is that you can make a debt settlement with a small amount of money and after that they start opposing Bitcoin. That is, I paid the debt and I closed those notes as soon as I paid the debt with the old money.

What's the point of the USA paying it's debt with Bitcoins? The USA has a money printer and a global currency. They can print as much US dollars as they want, which would devalue the US dollar and it would devalue their national debt as well. Paying a national debt by using BTC is total nonsense. There were rumors about Trump announcing that the USA will pay it's debt with USDT or some other US dollar backed stablecoin. This is yet another weird fake news.
The biggest political trap for BTC would be the future US government deciding to ban crypto trading and mining, but this is highly unlikely to happen.

[Alpen]

Yesterday I was watching a news and in that news it was being said that in the future the price of Bitcoin may decrease completely. They mentioned some reasons and based on that I also did some research and discovered some things, which seem to indicate that the price of Bitcoin may decrease.

Since Bitcoin is not under anyone's control, Bitcoin is a completely decentralized currency. So if someone wants to control the price of Bitcoin or blame the market, then he may have to have a lot of Bitcoin and that person or country must be very powerful. As we can see, currently Donald Trump is talking a lot about Bitcoin and he is encouraging everyone to hold and buy Bitcoin.

If we look at the debt of the United States, we will see that it is not easy for the United States to repay this debt. Keeping this in mind, if Donald Trump tells everyone to hold and buy Bitcoin and if the United States announces that they will pay their debts with Bitcoin. Because as we can see, the price of Bitcoin is very low at the moment or the market is falling. If they buy Bitcoin at this time or if they buy Bitcoin after the market falls further and if they announce that they will pay their debts with Bitcoin, then depending on their comments, many will buy and the price of Bitcoin will increase. However, if after the debt is settled, if Bitcoin opposes Bitcoin, then I can see a very big fall in the Bitcoin market. The biggest reason for doing this is that you can make a debt settlement with a small amount of money and after that they start opposing Bitcoin. That is, I paid the debt and I closed those notes as soon as I paid the debt with the old money.

• The current amount of debt of the United States is
• Current Bitcoin Reserve Number of the United States

Government bond debt must be repaid in the specific denomination it was issued in. If you borrowed in gold, you pay in gold; if you borrowed in dollars, you pay in dollars. That's how it works.

To be honest, the rest of the post isn't even worth discussing—it’s a complete misunderstanding of how the economy functions.

However, the underlying theme of political risk is interesting. How soon will we see international mandates for node verification? When will the US introduce a specific tax for miners? The Democrats were already moving in that direction. Those are the real political risks we should be talking about

[Rabata]

Since Bitcoin is not under anyone's control, Bitcoin is a completely decentralized currency. So if someone wants to control the price of Bitcoin or blame the market, then he may have to have a lot of Bitcoin and that person or country must be very powerful. As we can see, currently Donald Trump is talking a lot about Bitcoin and he is encouraging everyone to hold and buy Bitcoin.

If someone wants to take control of Bitcoin, they will have to have the most Bitcoins, which is never possible because a large part of the total supply of Bitcoin is already under the control of different kinds of investors. If they create some hype in the market and confuse ordinary investors and want to take Bitcoins from them, then it may be possible, but investors now know much more about Bitcoin than before, which is why they will not be able to take Bitcoins from them if they want. Although everyone is trying to take control of Bitcoin, but it is impossible now. If this is not possible, then if the US government adopts any strategy to fulfill any interest, the chances of success in that strategy will also decrease. Any such attempt will never be successful with a decentralized currency like Bitcoin, which is why the price of Bitcoin will not decrease much.

[Die_empty]

No doubt Trump will fade away in influence, just like Hitler did in Germany and Marcos did in the Philippines. But it might take 10-20 years before Bitcoin gets its brand name back. In the mean time you would probably be much better off holding other assets like metals or stocks. Buy back in at around 2040-2045  .

And Elon Musk, as he recently found out the hard way, is utterly nothing compared to the power of the US presidency. Trump tossed him out like yesterday's garbage and there was nothing he could do about it. (Although he too is stuck with the stench of Trump for the rest of his life whether he likes it or not).

I wouldn't dispute the influence of Trump on the price increase and awareness in recent times. He used Bitcoin for the campaign and also got the support of the crypto industry. His move no doubt benefited the crypto space.

However, nobody can claim that Trump is now the symbol of Bitcoin. His influence in the industry is gradually fading away that some of his policies are not having much effect on the market. If he leaves office his influence will vanish within a few months. Elon Musk once had such influence on the crypto market but he no longer commands such. When China banned Bitcoin mining there were predictions that the price would crash but it never happened. Bitcoin has a way of purging itself from external influence.

[viljy]

Bitcoin is not suitable for paying off government debt, this is obvious. In other words, bitcoin can be recognized as a means of payment, or it cannot be recognized as such. Money is not something that is provided by someone, a large community, or even the state, but something that is backed by strength and real values. Bitcoin is, so to speak, an optional asset that you can buy or not buy.

But you will have to buy oil, as well as food, the production of which ultimately also depends on oil. Therefore, the US national debt will be repaid through high oil prices, which will cause global price increases for everything. Raise prices in the world by 4 times and the US national debt will be 4 times less - everything is simple. Please note that this will not cause the same 4-fold inflation of the dollar! Because the dollar system has "sponges" that absorb inflation without releasing it to the consumers' level (or greatly weakening it). These sponges are the financial markets, the mania of investing and speculation inspired by the masses.

Next, there are "inflation translators" - central banks of other countries, which must accumulate dollar reserves in order to issue their own currency (and the IMF monitors this). This is how dollar inflation is exported to other countries' currencies. Well, that's something like that. But to do this, if you do not control most of the oil in the world, then at least disrupt oil production and supply, which is what the United States is doing now.

[Judith87403]

This is a creative idea, yet it does not really hold up if you look much closely.

Initially, the US can not pay it's debt realistically which is over $30 trillion with Bitcoin. The full worth of all Bitcoin is not large or stable enough for that, and many obligations for debt  needs dollars, instead of crypto.

Second, even though a leader such like Donald Trump backs up Bitcoin, no one country can completely control its long term price. The market is worldwide.

Thirdly, a sudden move of anti-Bitcoin after already using it can destroy trust in such country even more than Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin truely can fall in price, yet not likely to drop to zero from a single government strategy.

[Repeat06]

I may not have been able to convey my comment in a clear manner to everyone, for which I am sincerely sorry. I have tried to read almost all of your comments and I have learned from you the mistakes I had and the things I was confused about.

I want to say one thing again, that is, it is not easy for the United States to repay this debt. If they are willing to repay the debt by printing dollars, then there will be some big signs. Such as:

• Terrible inflation
  
• Since the dollar is the world's economic center, like all other countries, the dollar is the reserve and is used by the party in international buying and selling trade.
• Loss of trust in the dollar.

If the United States does this, it may get relief for a while, but in the long run it will face a lot of big problems, so they may be willing to repay the debt in Bitcoin to get rid of this problem. There may be some problems on this side, for example, if the US pays off its Bitcoin debt, many countries can reserve Bitcoin instead of dollars, and many countries have done so now. However, to solve this problem, they may call Bitcoin a fraud after paying off their debt with Bitcoin or face some other kind of problem. The reason for this is that the US is not a small country at all, their comments have a very big impact on the market, and the statements he has made about Bitcoin since Donald Trump came to power have had a very big impact on the market. So we cannot ignore these issues at all.

If my comments are in any way wrong, then I sincerely apologize to you.

[Agathamay]

definitely, news like this create nothing but fear and typically i don't have a single fear while holding and this is because i already know that bitcoin is a very decentralized cryptocurrency and no one or government can totally have control over it.
there are several factors that determine the price movement of bitcoin and if these factors are met, then we would witness in change in thr price and since i already ave the knowledge that, every news about bitcoin are all speculations and not certain, why the should i be bothered the predictions and assumptions of others?

[uchegod-21]

Since Bitcoin is not under anyone's control, Bitcoin is a completely decentralized currency. So if someone wants to control the price of Bitcoin or blame the market, then he may have to have a lot of Bitcoin and that person or country must be very powerful. As we can see, currently Donald Trump is talking a lot about Bitcoin and he is encouraging everyone to hold and buy Bitcoin.

No op, it doesn't work that way. There is a difference bitcoin control and manipulation, what you have just described here has nothing to do with bitcoin control, it is just manipulation. What the government or individuals perceived to be powerful (someone like Trump) or whales would do to manipulate the market is by intentionally influencing the price of bitcoin or behaviour of the market.
Their actions artificially leads to pump and dump. They place fake buy and sell to trick people. They spread FUD just for their own personal reasons. The powers only end at price manipulation but they do not have the powers to increase or reduce the total supply of bitcoin. They can't even move anyone's bitcoins or freeze it except they have access to their private keys. That is what controlling bitcoin means.

Take it that the government will be able to controlled the system if they have the data of all bitcoin users, including their private keys. Right now, the government is working more with the exchanges and other centralised platforms. What ever challenge that may arise, whether political or not will affect those who have their details uploaded online through any means at all.

[lionheart78]

It doesn't matter what I think or anybody here thinks: to most Americans, Bitcoin is a "Trump thing". And if Trump's brand diminishes, so will Bitcoin's.

Sadly America is just a part of the world. There are other nations out there that can boost Bitcoin.  After all, Bitcoin got known not because of America or Trump.  Bitcoin brand is already established even before anyone from America use it to their political scheme.

• It might all be fine, and Trump may end up being very popular, and thus the price of Bitcoin will stay where it is or even go up.

Bitcoin do not need Trump at all.  Instead I think it was Trump who is riding Bitcoin to help establish his popularity.

• But if Trump and his Republican party cause the USA great hardships and destroy our economy, then Bitcoin could easily lose almost all of its market cap, or even be declared illegal again if the backlash is strong enough.

We have our own assumption, and mine is somehow different. I always think that Bitcoin has a way more solid foundation than just relying to politacal group.  Remember, Bitcoin's influence and coverage are global, not just in a single country.

[Amphenomenon]

But to most Americans today, Bitcoin is a Trump thing.

I will love to see the data you are using to back your claim?

I'm too lazy to look this up right now, but if you google it, you'll find a strong Republican bias in crypto buyers based on data before Republican donors spent over a billion dollars on campaign financing in 2024, so it's logical that the bias is much stronger now, to the point that popular consumer sentiment as been permanently altered. It doesn't take much to move a consumer brand like this, and things like NASCAR or MyPillow are pretty much stuck being Trump/Republican for a very long time.

This I don't agree with even if there will be bias, it is not to the extent you are describing.

Trump has more power and influence definitely but it won't take that number of years, investors will decline but will gradually increase within the space of 5 to 10 years, and then after such breakout I wonder what will be any hindrance against Bitcoin? This is the last major influence to deal with and adoption rate will overall be constantly in the rise.

I said basically the same thing, except my timeframe was further out. This will depend on the political fortunes of Trump and his family (I believe Trump Jr. is the most likely next Republican candidate for president for instance). But it's possible that Trump could fade a little faster than that as you are saying here.

As for hinderance for Bitcoin in... 10 years? 10 years is a long, long, LONG time in the world of technology. Bitcoin already has thousands of competitors and some very large ones already, and technologically it is not strong at all compared to its competitors--it only has its brand name that gives it value. I think the market for digital currencies is going to be very different in 2 years, let alone 10 years...

I used 10 years because in the past decade+ while Bitcoin adoption as been increasing there were quite a number of things which as affected the growth but looking at it now some of those are nothing while many can be ignored, the key one standing is the government, US precisely but after this what next?

In the past years even before all of these Bitcoin had growth that brought even others to it and change their view, what make you think in the future when maybe something like this happen the growth will just halt because the adoption rate decline after such news at first and it will take too long for a comeback?
Let's go back to history and see how it has scale up to this point, yes this will be bigger than many but will the pattern change?

[legiteum]

I wouldn't dispute the influence of Trump on the price increase and awareness in recent times. He used Bitcoin for the campaign and also got the support of the crypto industry. His move no doubt benefited the crypto space.

However, nobody can claim that Trump is now the symbol of Bitcoin. His influence in the industry is gradually fading away that some of his policies are not having much effect on the market. If he leaves office his influence will vanish within a few months. Elon Musk once had such influence on the crypto market but he no longer commands such. When China banned Bitcoin mining there were predictions that the price would crash but it never happened. Bitcoin has a way of purging itself from external influence.

Trump is not "the symbol of Bitcoin", rather, Bitcoin is a symbol of Trump: most Americans today associate Bitcoin today with "a Trump thing". It's basically the CyberTruck of investments today.

(China never banned Bitcoin, they simply forbade their banking system to put it on their balance sheets; and China's population never represented more than a few % of Bitcoin's total holdings).

How long Trump's badness (or goodness, to be absolutely fair) will be remembered by Americans will depend on the severity of the effects on the country. Obviously Hitler took a long time to "wear off" in Germany for instance. But sure, maybe Trump will go quietly and the US will go back to normal, and Trump Jr. will not be the Republican nominee, and the US will quickly forget about Trump. I personally doubt that will happen though.

It doesn't matter what I think or anybody here thinks: to most Americans, Bitcoin is a "Trump thing". And if Trump's brand diminishes, so will Bitcoin's.

Sadly America is just a part of the world. There are other nations out there that can boost Bitcoin.  After all, Bitcoin got known not because of America or Trump.  Bitcoin brand is already established even before anyone from America use it to their political scheme.

Bitcoin, like most Internet things, started in the USA (in terms of mainstream prominence at least, if not being invented here). Arguably 90% of Bitcoin's holdings are probably in US hands. All of the major "blockchain" companies like Binance and Coinbase are US based. Most of the Bitcoin hashrate is currency in the USA. Etc. etc.

I agree that if Trump becomes a pariah in the USA and he takes Bitcoin with him, then Bitcoin will look to other countries to rebuild its audience, but it will be a major blow and surely drop the price by at least 90%.

As for hinderance for Bitcoin in... 10 years? 10 years is a long, long, LONG time in the world of technology. Bitcoin already has thousands of competitors and some very large ones already, and technologically it is not strong at all compared to its competitors--it only has its brand name that gives it value. I think the market for digital currencies is going to be very different in 2 years, let alone 10 years...

I used 10 years because in the past decade+ while Bitcoin adoption as been increasing there were quite a number of things which as affected the growth but looking at it now some of those are nothing while many can be ignored, the key one standing is the government, US precisely but after this what next?

In the past years even before all of these Bitcoin had growth that brought even others to it and change their view, what make you think in the future when maybe something like this happen the growth will just halt because the adoption rate decline after such news at first and it will take too long for a comeback?
Let's go back to history and see how it has scale up to this point, yes this will be bigger than many but will the pattern change?

What is different now is that in 2024 the crypto industry was the single-largest political donor in the United States, and they will probably be again the top donor in this year's elections. This is a HUGE development: crypto is now bigger than the oil industry, or the pharmaceutical industry, or other traditional giant political donors.

In doing this, crypto has connected itself--using billions of dollars--to the fate of the US government, and specifically to one US political party, the Republicans (95% of the money goes to Republicans and Trump).

The other thing that has changed in the last 10 years is that Bitcoin is a much bigger part of the US investment portfolio--it's no longer limited to a few bitcointalk.org hardcores . You have to remember that the people you and I talk to on a daily basis are not the ones responsible for giving Bitcoin a $1 trillion market cap, that is instead millions of everyday Americans who just want an investment that will increase in value.

Take away "average mainstream American investors" and Bitcoin won't "die", but it certainly will retreat in price by 90% or more.