Why is bitcoin mining hash rate increased in 2022 but falling in 2026

[Oshosondy]

I have noticed in 2022 that bitcoin fall from $69000 to $15500 right from November 2012 to December 2022, but bitcoin mining hash rate continued to increase throughout 2022.

But in 2026, there has been a drop in bitcoin mining hash rate. It is not a significant drop but it has falling from about 1.15 billion TH/s to 945 million TH/s.

I know this is not affecting bitcoin security as bitcoin price will go up and miners will be encouraged again but why are miners not encouraged to mine bitcoin this time?

AI? Because this is what I have seen on the news as miners like MARA Pool moved towards AI. But if they mine and keep bitcoin, they will later make profit.

Bitcoin America complained of loss aloe but they increased their mining hash rate instead. I think this is a better approach.

Although bitcoin mining is not profitable for them like the bull run time but things will still change back.

Any other reasons?

[FP91G]

I have noticed in 2022 that bitcoin fall from $69000 to $15500 right from November 2012 to December 2022, but bitcoin mining hash rate continued to increase throughout 2022.

But in 2026, there has been a drop in bitcoin mining hash rate. It is not a significant drop but it has falling from about 1.15 billion TH/s to 945 million TH/s.

I know this is not affecting bitcoin security as bitcoin price will go up and miners will be encouraged again but why are miners not encouraged to mine bitcoin this time?

AI? Because this is what I have seen on the news as miners like MARA Pool moved towards AI. But if they mine and keep bitcoin, they will later make profit.

Bitcoin America complained of loss aloe but they increased their mining hash rate instead. I think this is a better approach.

Although bitcoin mining is not profitable for them like the bull run time but things will still change back.

Any other reasons?

Check out my current hashrate; mine is showing 1.095 ZH/s, even though mining is unprofitable
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
There were several known causes: the US power shortage due to the cold, which has now been resolved. Another cause was the war in Iran, but there are no exact figures, only estimates. Even within 1 day we can see the hashrate change from 0.9 to 1 ZH/s.

[BitMaxz]

I think you better go check the chart behind 2022; there's also a drop in hashrate between 2021 and 2022.
The only reason that I see why hashrate dropped in the year 2021 is due to Tesla selling their Bitcoin holdings and maybe the mining ban in China; compared to today, both have different reasons, and I think one of the reasons today, or since January, is because of the war and tariffs.

[SamReomo]

I believe AI is the main reason why mining hash rate is falling in 2026, most miners might be shifting their resources for AI compute and that's why the mining hash rate might be falling. However, the miners who believe in Bitcoin long term value growth will keep their mining operations and will not shift toward AI sector but surely a good number of miners will shift because they'll get better profit in short term in AI sector.

[philipma1957]

I believe AI is the main reason why mining hash rate is falling in 2026, most miners might be shifting their resources for AI compute and that's why the mining hash rate might be falling. However, the miners who believe in Bitcoin long term value growth will keep their mining operations and will not shift toward AI sector but surely a good number of miners will shift because they'll get better profit in short term in AI sector.

Some miners switch not most.

Most would be 51% or more hash rate and 51% or more diff drop.

the Diff high was 155t

the diff now is 134t that is only 13.5% drop in hash not 51%

and price went down from 126 to 71 which is over  43% drop in price.

So hash is off a bit.

I estimate at least 1/2 of the 13.5% drop is Iran hash rate turned off by Iran maybe even destroyed by USA.

So that leaves 6.75% drop due to AI shifts and/or companies going bankrupt.

The breakdown of the 13.5 total drop may be

6.75% Iran
6.75% AI and companies shut down.

Many people do not realize a large power contract say 3 years 10 megawatts at 4 cents a kwatt can be transferred in some cases. So a mining plant does not refit it just sells it remains power contract off to an AI company.

Sorting
1) Iran 2) A.I. switch 3) bankruptcy

 will be hard.  But If Iran war continues for a while say till Sept 1 we will know better just how much is lost due to Iran

[Oshosondy]

I think you better go check the chart behind 2022; there's also a drop in hashrate between 2021 and 2022.
The only reason that I see why hashrate dropped in the year 2021 is due to Tesla selling their Bitcoin holdings and maybe the mining ban in China; compared to today, both have different reasons, and I think one of the reasons today, or since January, is because of the war and tariffs.

I am not referring to 2021 which was a bull market year for cryptocurrencies, I am referring to 2022 which was a bear market throughout the year. But I can understand what FP91G is saying, let us wait and see if the hash rate will be backup soon. But the way the hash rate increased in 2022 was different with mild fall followed by further increase.

[philipma1957]

The op is right in that 2022 did not crush the hash rate and difficulty that much as compared to nov 2025 to March 2026






but the op is missing out that you could not buy gear due to covid. it was very hard to buy gear during the 2021 runup. So when prices began to drop miners were still making money in 2022 thus the hash did not drop much in 2022

the op is also missing out on the Chinese miners were cracked down on in 2021 so there was gear that need to be shifted out of China and was being put back on line in later 2021 and in 2022.

this year usa power got turned down the big drop on this years chart

and Iran is turned down the later drop on this years chart.

btw we are going back up as I type

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   941988  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.5003%  (517 / 509.36 expected, 7.64 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   145042165424853.3                            
Current Difficulty:   133793147307542.8                            
Next Difficulty:   between 134805961102973 and 136079688344700
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7570% and +1.7090%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 5:43 PM  (-7.7557%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 3, 2026 at 12:45 PM  (in 10d 6h 8m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 3, 2026 at 3:30 PM  (in 10d 8h 53m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 2m 0s and 13d 21h 46m 45s

[FP91G]

I think you better go check the chart behind 2022; there's also a drop in hashrate between 2021 and 2022.
The only reason that I see why hashrate dropped in the year 2021 is due to Tesla selling their Bitcoin holdings and maybe the mining ban in China; compared to today, both have different reasons, and I think one of the reasons today, or since January, is because of the war and tariffs.

I am not referring to 2021 which was a bull market year for cryptocurrencies, I am referring to 2022 which was a bear market throughout the year. But I can understand what FP91G is saying, let us wait and see if the hash rate will be backup soon. But the way the hash rate increased in 2022 was different with mild fall followed by further increase.

Hashrate will always increase over the long term. You may find periods of several months when it declines. Every year, new equipment appears, older equipment becomes unprofitable, and miners are forced to buy newer equipment with the same power consumption and higher hashrate.

[philipma1957]

I think you better go check the chart behind 2022; there's also a drop in hashrate between 2021 and 2022.
The only reason that I see why hashrate dropped in the year 2021 is due to Tesla selling their Bitcoin holdings and maybe the mining ban in China; compared to today, both have different reasons, and I think one of the reasons today, or since January, is because of the war and tariffs.

I am not referring to 2021 which was a bull market year for cryptocurrencies, I am referring to 2022 which was a bear market throughout the year. But I can understand what FP91G is saying, let us wait and see if the hash rate will be backup soon. But the way the hash rate increased in 2022 was different with mild fall followed by further increase.

Hashrate will always increase over the long term. You may find periods of several months when it declines. Every year, new equipment appears, older equipment becomes unprofitable, and miners are forced to buy newer equipment with the same power consumption and higher hashrate.

this  may not stay true anymore.

it may be how the four year cycle ends.

I tracked difficulty  and hashrate for years and we do not have a 18 month or longer drop.

Ie 18 months has is lower than it was.

but maybe we will this time.

[mikeywith]

2026 has just started, too early to jump to any conclusions and saying hashrate dropped this year, hashrate consolidate even during price up trend, let alone now with power prices and a bad overall Bitcoin market, so any drop here and there is just another Tuesday, you need to revist this topic 8 months later.

[philipma1957]

2026 has just started, too early to jump to any conclusions and saying hashrate dropped this year, hashrate consolidate even during price up trend, let alone now with power prices and a bad overall Bitcoin market, so any drop here and there is just another Tuesday, you need to revist this topic 8 months later.

yep as that gets us closer to the 18 month mark.

we never dropped at the 18 month mark.

So nov 2025 at 155t

means we need to be under 155T to break the 18 month pattern

may 2027 not so sure we see this.

[bitdoxer]

What will happen to Bitcoin mining if the price drops to $40,000 per coin? The cost of electricity will be too prohibitive to run mining operations.

[FP91G]

What will happen to Bitcoin mining if the price drops to $40,000 per coin? The cost of electricity will be too prohibitive to run mining operations.

The price could fall to $30,000, which wouldn't be a problem if it then returned to $70,000. Miners will have a problem when the Bitcoin price remains below the cost of mining for a long time.
We've seen this before: small companies went bankrupt, while large ones survived.

[FanTuner]

Good observation, this actually comes down to miner economics, not just price.

In 2022, many miners were still:

locked into long-term power contracts
expanding from the 2021 bull run
operating with newer hardware

So even with falling prices, they kept mining. In 2026, margins are tighter and miners are more disciplined, if it’s not profitable, they shut down faster.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin-mining.asp

Hashrate follows profit… but with a delay.

[philipma1957]

Good observation, this actually comes down to miner economics, not just price.

In 2022, many miners were still:

locked into long-term power contracts
expanding from the 2021 bull run
operating with newer hardware

So even with falling prices, they kept mining. In 2026, margins are tighter and miners are more disciplined, if it’s not profitable, they shut down faster.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin-mining.asp

Hashrate follows profit… but with a delay.

pretty much true maybe 80%

once in a while a country breaks shit like china did in 2021 and USA has done to Iran only difference is Iran had 5-8% of the has in 2026 and Chia had close to 40% in 2021

[FP91G]

Good observation, this actually comes down to miner economics, not just price.

In 2022, many miners were still:

locked into long-term power contracts
expanding from the 2021 bull run
operating with newer hardware

So even with falling prices, they kept mining. In 2026, margins are tighter and miners are more disciplined, if it’s not profitable, they shut down faster.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin-mining.asp

Hashrate follows profit… but with a delay.

I'm not sure turning on and off a plant that consumes tens of megawatts is as easy as turning on and off a toilet light.

Energy companies won't sell that kind of capacity without long-term contracts. As evidence, there's plenty of information about miners not shutting down their equipment, but rather transferring their capacity to the AI ​​industry.