Why Is Trump So Pro-Prediction Markets While Everyone Else Is Banning Them?

[viljy]

Maybe I'm missing something here but this doesn't make sense to me.

Prediction markets are getting banned in a bunch of countries right now. Netherlands, Ukraine, Romania, Portugal all kicked them out. US regulators are investigating them too.

But Trump is defending them really hard. Like every chance he gets.

The part I don't get - isn't Trump Jr. involved with these platforms? I've seen articles about him placing bets and having connections to prediction market companies.

So is Trump defending something his son profits from? While it's facing legal problems everywhere else?

I'm genuinely asking because this seems like a conflict of interest but maybe I'm not understanding it correctly.

Like if the president supports an industry and his kid makes money from that industry, isn't that... problematic? Or is this normal and I'm just overthinking it?

Can someone explain what I'm missing here? Because it looks sketchy to me but maybe there's context I don't have.

Such a phenomenon as the "prediction market" (the name itself is laughable for its clumsiness in an attempt to cover up the essence) is specifically designed for manipulation and money laundering. So it's not surprising that this is becoming noticeable. Well, at least this applies to gambling and requires licensing (depending on the jurisdiction).

As for Trump, many people in his place would defend such an excellent tool for manipulation as the Polymarket. Well, it can be understood. He and his family now need to save up more money for lawyers. The prospect of impeachment and multiple charges looms ahead (for example, related to tokens), and this is not to mention the threat of disclosure of compromising material from Epstein's files.

[danherbias07]

I don't like accusing other governments, but it does smell fishy.

Still, their country has been regulating gambling sites, and prediction markets are not really far from it. It's either that they are making money out of it or they are just open to this kind of industry, unlike other countries that want everything under their control.
Regulations. There are gambling sites that want control over one country, and they want any big competition like prediction markets, especially the decentralized ones, because they cannot trace them. If the regulated ones will pay well, they can ask the government to trash prediction sites in exchange for a higher gambling tax.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Perhaps they are making money out of the prediction market. Maybe someone close to them are using it to bet with insider information, like the recent millions of money betting on the start of the conflict between them and Iran.

There is no proof though, everyone can make their accusations as we have seen some board about it saying that there is manipulation. Or maybe Trump and his family are not really involved. But his government wanted to be really open to everyone, just like being pro-crypto and all other stuff.

[Kelward]

I know that Trump, cannot be a dictator in a strong democratic country like USA so I don't think that the decision of legality of prediction market solely rests on him, I think that if Polymarket is not favorable to the lawmakers of America they will kick against it whether Trump likes it or not, although I don't know if they are against it. We shouldn't judge America's decision on Polymarket and prediction market based on the standards of European countries and others that have banned Polymarket, if American government allows it then let it be legal in that country. But whether Trump's pro prediction market is because of the said interest of his son that is another case altogether however my point is that if American lawmakers are cool with Trump's stance then we shouldn't worry about his personal motives and preferences.

[Wapfika]

But Trump is defending them really hard. Like every chance he gets.

The part I don't get - isn't Trump Jr. involved with these platforms? I've seen articles about him placing bets and having connections to prediction market companies.

So is Trump defending something his son profits from? While it's facing legal problems everywhere else?

Always attached source if you are sharing a sensitive information because you are accusing the POTUS doing a fraud with prediction market.

Although there’s always a possibility considering that some shady bets that related to his military move was made before especially US invade Maduro.

Trump will support a business that generates profit for them to fund their war.

[Porfirii]

<...>

You must be new to American politics if you believe this is problematic when comes to Trump and people surrounding him. This likely one of the smallest problems he has.

Trump launched his own token when he became president of the country, not long ago. He is the first president ever engaging with highly speculative cryptocurrency tokens and also launching his own collection of NFTs. That is very problematic and it is not even the worst of the things he is being accused of.

-snip-

I wouldn't have explained it better, Hispo. There is a legal principle which states that "Who can do the most can do the least", so, if he launched his own token and there is no problem with that, not putting obstacles to prediction markets should not be a problem for him.

In addition, if he is forced to take a position, he only has two options, for or against, and what his son does should not condition a decision that must be in accordance with his general policy and designed for the generality of the American population.

[DrBeer]

Maybe I'm missing something here but this doesn't make sense to me.

Prediction markets are getting banned in a bunch of countries right now. Netherlands, Ukraine, Romania, Portugal all kicked them out. US regulators are investigating them too.

But Trump is defending them really hard. Like every chance he gets.

The part I don't get - isn't Trump Jr. involved with these platforms? I've seen articles about him placing bets and having connections to prediction market companies.

So is Trump defending something his son profits from? While it's facing legal problems everywhere else?

I'm genuinely asking because this seems like a conflict of interest but maybe I'm not understanding it correctly.

Like if the president supports an industry and his kid makes money from that industry, isn't that... problematic? Or is this normal and I'm just overthinking it?

Can someone explain what I'm missing here? Because it looks sketchy to me but maybe there's context I don't have.

I can ASSUME that prediction markets have fallen out of favor due to the potential for widespread fraud and manipulation, as well as money laundering or profiting from insider trading, which is illegal in many countries. Now let’s read the reasons again, and... remember how Trump, his family, and his friends make their money—namely through speculation and fraud

[CryptSafe]

It is obviously clear now that there is more to this prediction market than we could imagine. If he supports them, then we should know that they stand to benefit hugely from the market without being told. How come the support is so strong that he resists any ban or sanctions on the prediction market? If you will recall, there have been bets as it relates to government activities, arrests, and sanctions, and all were executed successfully, and nobody would ever believe that some of those actions would ever take place, most especially that of the arrest of the Venezuelan president, and if you notice, just a few people were able to win that bet if I am not mistaken, which you could really understood what really transpired.

[asriloni]

Trump close people made tons of money from prediction market. So it's nothing surprise to see him defend the prediction market so hard. As far as i know Trump's venture capital has heavily invested in the prediction market such as Polymarket.

It's a common thing when he defends the source of money for his family. It's easy for his family members to make millions used insider to bet on a contract that's none expected it would happen like when US strikes Iran.

Apart from that prediction market gets banned in most of countries caused by they operated without even getting licensed in those countries. So many countries banned them due to such reason. Meanwhile, Prediction market already granted an approval to operated in US. That's the reason those platforms are not getting banned.

That's why i don't think there is a conflict of interest. It's caused by if Polymarket was always being compliance to the regulations in those countries. They won't be banned as they would be granted license to operated legally in those countries like what they did in US.

[YOSHIE]

Can someone explain what I'm missing here? Because it looks sketchy to me but maybe there's context I don't have.

If that's what you're asking, maybe we have to ask Trump's special staff or directly to Trump to find a definite answer about Pro-Prediction Markets.

But what I see about prediction markets some sources say Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed., whether it's fact or myth, that's what we know for now.
Or maybe the prediction market has a division with Trump or maybe some of Trump's shares, that's my guess, not a certainty.

That's what we know, to ensure 100% accuracy of course we have to go back to what I said at the beginning.

[Renampun]

Each country has its own regulations regarding prediction markets, some consider them detrimental to their society, while others don't see them as detrimental and legalize them to profit from them. the US, in this case, doesn't see prediction markets as something to be avoided, as they can profit significantly from them. furthermore, they have a sizable gambling market and don't want to lose this significant market share to other countries that might also regulate them.