D-Day for Bitcoin

[Alpen]

Today marks exactly one month since the first American bombs fell on Iran. Donald Trump promised to wrap up the war in four weeks, but now there's talk of a ground invasion. Iran is digging in for a land campaign the way Germany braced for D‑Day. Trump seems to think his own version of D‑Day will be a less bloody affair.

So what’s Bitcoin doing? The first price reaction to the possibility of a ground operation saw crypto testing the bottom of its range at $66K. But earlier, Bitcoin had broken out of that range and hit $76K. Now the daily chart is showing a head‑and‑shoulders pattern. The neckline sits at $66K. Breaking below that level would be a clear signal for a drop. And D‑Day would likely push Bitcoin below $60K.

A ground invasion in Iran would be the climax of the sell‑off. And at that point, I’ll be buying anything below $60K—DCA style.

[(BTC)]

The war is pointless and nothing more than something to fuel the profits of the military-industrial complex. Aparently 17,000 troops are scheduled to ground over in Iran. Hopefully what I was reading was malarkey, because Iraq/Afghanistan lasted for wayyy too long just to replace the Taliban...with the Taliban. 

I'm speculating 50k at least. Everything's gunna be hurting until late this year IMO.

[khiholangkang]

That's pretty scary for a pattern that is believed to bring a deeper drop, but the shape is similar to Head and Shoulder only the structure I think is less perfect to say that.
But this can be a concern for all that the probability will always be there to go down or up on the price of bitcoin, so don't focus too much on that because in the end we will pass this journey back as happened before, if you have the intention to accumulate then continue consistently and keep holding it because we will never know which way bitcoin will go, and also we will never know that what causes it to go down or go back up, whether it's Iran's war with the US or other things that can trigger an increase or decrease.

[Awaklara]

Previously, there was a discussion regarding the shortest bearish moment if Bitcoin a few days ago could reach $80k. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen, and we will still be in a bearish trend that might last longer than we hoped. 
If the war turns into a ground war, honestly, it could be a longer war. The impact, if issues related to the Strait of Hormuz are not resolved immediately, many changes will occur in the market. Looking at Bitcoin's current price, if it drops to $60k, of course, it is very possible. A good price for buying.

[Zaguru12]

The war is pointless and nothing more than something to fuel the profits of the military-industrial complex. Aparently 17,000 troops are scheduled to ground over in Iran. Hopefully what I was reading was malarkey, because Iraq/Afghanistan lasted for wayyy too long just to replace the Taliban...with the Taliban.  

I'm speculating 50k at least. Everything's gunna be hurting until late this year IMO.

With the Iranians currently saying that they are not ready for negotiations then it will definitely take a longer time for a complete dialogue, this should have actually been the first thing the USA/Isreal should have started with not the pre-emptive strike.  

But nonetheless I think this will actually not have a very long term effect on bitcoin as the war goes on, just that a prolonged closure of straits of Hormuz will be where the effect comes from because of the energy crisis that it will cause  if not the world will just move on like it did in most wars like even the Ukraine vs Russia war

My long time prediction is actually bitcoin to bottom below $50k before it moves anywhere up

[Die_empty]

Today marks exactly one month since the first American bombs fell on Iran. Donald Trump promised to wrap up the war in four weeks, but now there's talk of a ground invasion. Iran is digging in for a land campaign the way Germany braced for D‑Day. Trump seems to think his own version of D‑Day will be a less bloody affair.

So what’s Bitcoin doing? The first price reaction to the possibility of a ground operation saw crypto testing the bottom of its range at $66K. But earlier, Bitcoin had broken out of that range and hit $76K. Now the daily chart is showing a head‑and‑shoulders pattern. The neckline sits at $66K. Breaking below that level would be a clear signal for a drop. And D‑Day would likely push Bitcoin below $60K.

A ground invasion in Iran would be the climax of the sell‑off. And at that point, I’ll be buying anything below $60K—DCA style.

Iran has surprised the US because the aggressors thought that the war will not last long. A land invasion might still bring another surprise.  It would not be like Trump's invasion of Venezuela, which went very easily. Iran is a bigger country with difficult terrain. They also have well-trained and equipped soldiers.

A ground invasion will escalate the war and lead to the destruction of strategic infrastructure like oil facilities and nuclear plants. Iran will be fighting to survive which will lead to an attack on other Middle East countries. The global market will be affected and the Bitcoin price will drop. Below $60k would be a perfect opportunity to accumulate discounted Bitcoin.

[aoluain]

Today marks exactly one month since the first American bombs fell on Iran. Donald Trump promised to wrap up the war in four weeks, but now there's talk of a ground invasion. Iran is digging in for a land campaign the way Germany braced for D‑Day. Trump seems to think his own version of D‑Day will be a less bloody affair.

So what’s Bitcoin doing? The first price reaction to the possibility of a ground operation saw crypto testing the bottom of its range at $66K. But earlier, Bitcoin had broken out of that range and hit $76K. Now the daily chart is showing a head‑and‑shoulders pattern. The neckline sits at $66K. Breaking below that level would be a clear signal for a drop. And D‑Day would likely push Bitcoin below $60K.

A ground invasion in Iran would be the climax of the sell‑off. And at that point, I’ll be buying anything below $60K—DCA style.

I too will be buying DCA style if (when) the market dips below $60k which IMO is looking
like it has become more feasible as the war continues. The war continuing correlates to
the Strait of Hormuz being closed to all ships/oil tankers not "authorised" by Iran and this
brings the global economy closer to recession/depresion. This will surely hit the Bitcoin
market negatively also.

A ground invasion will really confirm the war is going to be a prolonged one.

[buwaytress]

When you say below $60k, what kind of bottom are you looking at? Long before the war, I'd already been expecting sub-60. Even without all that fuss I thought, $30k was not beyond imagination (25% of ATH? That's Bitcoin normal!).

Throw in this and possibly worse tailends after. Then 15% of ATH (18k) -- which is not unheard of for Bitcoin -- maybe? What's your thinking OP?

[ScamViruS]

Since the start of this war, there has been escalation from both sides in this one month. Now Iran is saying that they will not negotiate with the US, which means this war will continue and the path to dialogue is closed for now. The US had sent a ceasefire proposal to Iran with conditions and Iran has officially rejected it. Now the ground invasion that the US is preparing for will definitely be bloody, Iran has been saying that it has been preparing for it.

So yes, this massive escalation is not good news for the market in any way, we may see more downtrend in the market. The Bitcoin market is still in an unpredictable situation, from now on the market can go in any direction, everything depends on how this war is resolved and how much it escalates.

[Odohu]

Today marks exactly one month since the first American bombs fell on Iran. Donald Trump promised to wrap up the war in four weeks, but now there's talk of a ground invasion. Iran is digging in for a land campaign the way Germany braced for D‑Day. Trump seems to think his own version of D‑Day will be a less bloody affair.

So what’s Bitcoin doing? The first price reaction to the possibility of a ground operation saw crypto testing the bottom of its range at $66K. But earlier, Bitcoin had broken out of that range and hit $76K. Now the daily chart is showing a head‑and‑shoulders pattern. The neckline sits at $66K. Breaking below that level would be a clear signal for a drop. And D‑Day would likely push Bitcoin below $60K.

A ground invasion in Iran would be the climax of the sell‑off. And at that point, I’ll be buying anything below $60K—DCA style.

Your analysis suggests that Bitcoin is heading for an imminent crash if the head and shoulder pattern holds and that may coincide with ground invasion of Iran by US forces. Well I don't want to fault your analysis begause the market have been so strange lately with price action that we can hardly point to anything as the driver. The price action within this period of war have not also been clear which is why we don't know if there ground invasion will favor Bitcoin or not.

[Jegileman]

So what’s Bitcoin doing? The first price reaction to the possibility of a ground operation saw crypto testing the bottom of its range at $66K. But earlier, Bitcoin had broken out of that range and hit $76K. Now the daily chart is showing a head‑and‑shoulders pattern. The neckline sits at $66K. Breaking below that level would be a clear signal for a drop. And D‑Day would likely push Bitcoin below $60K.

Not just beyond $60K, I see the market going further down than that of the war intensifies into bringing on board ground troops to invade Iran. The effect in the market is not much felt as many assumed but we can’t deny that if the war stays longer, we may have to just see the effect beginning to show even though not much as predicted still.

We have seen the effect of this war on crude oil after the strait of Hormuz was closed down by the Iranians, closing down to go face off with them more will only make it harder to bring an end to this war. The market will be affected but not as much though, because bitcoin even touching $50K was something anticipated for if bitcoin eventually gets into the bearish state of the market.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Price is going to retrace into the right shoulder before it signals a bearish move (if at all that's what is going to happen) because that's a resistance level which is likely to pull price down but if price breaks and close above that level, it means that it's going to be bullish again and won't go below that $60k. I was even thinking that Bitcoin would have gone below $60k earlier on but it has not and that is why I'm now thinking that it might not go below it any moment soon.

[AVE5]

A ground invasion in Iran would be the climax of the sell‑off. And at that point, I’ll be buying anything below $60K—DCA style.

Let's assume your data analysis is comprehensible at least considering the factors that when the economy hasn't been favourable or stable as a result of war, bitcoin investors maybe diverted of selling their coins to fix immediate needs where alternative source of income hasn't been profitable all the while.
But in the other hand, there's also going to be buyers with in the jurisdictions where the war is effective. Reasons may differ but I'm sure some would buy to secure their assets from physical threats such as those investing in stock and real estates may even sell their other assets to buy bitcoin.

[jossiel]

A ground invasion in Iran would be the climax of the sell‑off.

We cannot be sure with that. Anything can happen and everyone will sell whether due to need or panic.

And at that point, I’ll be buying anything below $60K—DCA style.

Much better.

And be consistent in DCA, anything that's under $60k I think is a good buy. That's more than 50% of discount from the last ATH.

[rbynxx]

Seeing a inverse H&S there to be honest and that is something to keep an eye on as it will potentially be heading more towards that support. Well, I or you could be wrong on this move but I think if we talk about the macro, this war has really an impact if we need to hold that support. Again, it's a good thing that we could potentially be accumulate at this levels, there's no other opportunity like this again since 2020 I guess.

[JeffBrad12]

Pretty clear that bitcoin failed on its attempt to retest the resistance and could be going down even deeper maybe going back to the 60k, the price when the flash crash hit momentarily.
The prolonged war could bring negative effect but bitcoin so far hasn't been affected that much by the war though, if anything it's gold that is on the brink of another big crash and could go to $3500 again.

[hostm]

The question is whether Bitcoin will go below 60,000 in the near future. And if the crisis continues, whether it will go below 40,000 or not. There are many bids, ranging from 50,000 to 60,000, but they can be easily removed.

[noorman0]

-snip-
$30k was not beyond imagination (25% of ATH? That's Bitcoin normal!).

Throw in this and possibly worse tailends after. Then 15% of ATH (18k) -- which is not unheard of for Bitcoin -- maybe? What's your thinking OP?

Historically, ATL drawdowns have decreased each cycle, coupled with greater liquidity since institutional investors and the ETF market joined the movement. If the decline were to reach or exceed -75% again, it would be a bear market anomaly for this cycle.
I personally limit the downside scenario for this cycle to $50k, as the lowest point reached by the lower wick in the previous consolidation history (monthly timeframe).

[As-Soon-As]

Today marks exactly one month since the first American bombs fell on Iran. Donald Trump promised to wrap up the war in four weeks, but now there's talk of a ground invasion. Iran is digging in for a land campaign the way Germany braced for D‑Day. Trump seems to think his own version of D‑Day will be a less bloody affair.

So what’s Bitcoin doing? The first price reaction to the possibility of a ground operation saw crypto testing the bottom of its range at $66K. But earlier, Bitcoin had broken out of that range and hit $76K. Now the daily chart is showing a head‑and‑shoulders pattern. The neckline sits at $66K. Breaking below that level would be a clear signal for a drop. And D‑Day would likely push Bitcoin below $60K.

A ground invasion in Iran would be the climax of the sell‑off. And at that point, I’ll be buying anything below $60K—DCA style.

The Iranian war will not have much impact on the price of Bitcoin, because this war has been going on for a few weeks, and Bitcoin has already touched over $70,000. However, the Iranians are currently experiencing a major crisis in the country due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is creating an energy crisis. However, in this case, the Americans may be lacking energy, but in the current position, the Iranians have used their war power more force in the Strait of Hormuz.
Due to which the Americans and the Israelis are very worried at the moment, but in this case, the price of Bitcoin is naturally very unlikely to fall below $60,000. Although if the price of Bitcoin enters below $60,000, not only you but every Bitcoin holder will take the opportunity to buy Bitcoin.

[Dave1]

I don't think that there will be a ground assault on Iran, that could be the biggest mistakes of America and Trump if they do it.

As for the price, we are in the bearish cycle already, so it's just a matter of time that the price will go on a massive decline. Not sure what the price did have some uptick at the start of the war. But if you look at it, didn't sustain it's run and so we go down to $66k again.

It might be that this is not yet the lowest low in this cycle. So I do agree that anything below $60k could be a very good entry to start buying and accumulating again.