One of the reasons betting sites are different from prediction markets

[bakasabo]

What about licenses? Are gambling license for sports betting and same license for Polymarket or Kalshi to accept sports bets the same? Even though both offer prediction services, gambling license most probably is different from making prediction license. I am not 100% accurate with it. But I can place sports bet on Polymarket, but unable to do the same or even place same bet on several online casinos.

[salad daging]

Am I wrong? Is parlay possible on prediction market?

It is possible that in the future prediction markets may offer parlay bets, but currently they are not offered in prediction markets so this is the difference with crypto casinos in general.
What I'm still surprised to see is that there are people who think the prediction market is not a bet.

I have visited Polymarket and I noticed parlay is not possible. These is one of the reasons many people on betting sites like Stake and Duelbit can not go for Prediction markets for their favourite clubs match to be on.

Betting in the casino that we play there the bookies offer a lot about betting: You can see in the sports betting mentioned, there are features “Early payout, Parlay, betbuilder, multiple odds if you put multiple teams into the match”. This is not available in Polymarket.

[danherbias07]

Imagine parlaying future markets, which will be chaotic, and so are the odds. It could go to multiplication in millions.

I think the reason is that they want to finish one event only and close it. Tickets that won 1 prediction and are waiting for the next one could become a lot of work since they will be monitoring them and checking for their history.  
The other reason could be an addition to manpower, which means more expense. If it can be as simple as one win per event, why not? They don't need to drag themselves with more work.

[Kelward]

This debate whether prediction market is same as sports bet which is gambling have been on for sometime but we all know that both are gambling because you place your money to predict, if you are correct you will win more than what you used to stake. I've never been on a prediction site before but reasoning with what you said about sports bet having parleys while prediction market don't have I think that I can relate with the reason why it's not so, sports bet have series of same events which is the sport but prediction market focuses on single events only.

[alegotardo]

I know prediction markets are betting site. Even Kalshi is facing unnoticed lawsuit from Washington attorney general, saying it is a betting site. But this thread is about the reason people on prediction markets can not go for parlay.

Am I wrong? Is parlay possible on prediction market?

I have visited Polymarket and I noticed parlay is not possible. These is one of the reasons many people on betting sites like Stake and Duelbit can not go for Prediction markets for their favourite clubs match to be on.

I do not think it is possible to place bets of this type in the prediction market, but honestly, I also do not think that is a strong enough factor to say that they are different from gambling.
There are many things that differentiate one from the other, and the main one is that the prediction market is based on real facts and almost "binary" bets, so it is much more like a trade than gambling, but I also do not know if that is reason enough to differentiate them from gambling.

Being pessimistic, I think it is actually just a different type of betting, and I think the attorney general is right in his arguments, let is be realistic.
This will certainly affect how taxes are collected and will result in higher costs for users, I know, but as I said, let is be realistic about what the prediction market really is.

[DrBeer]

I know prediction markets are betting site. Even Kalshi is facing unnoticed lawsuit from Washington attorney general, saying it is a betting site. But this thread is about the reason people on prediction markets can not go for parlay.

Am I wrong? Is parlay possible on prediction market?

I have visited Polymarket and I noticed parlay is not possible. These is one of the reasons many people on betting sites like Stake and Duelbit can not go for Prediction markets for their favourite clubs match to be on.

Let’s look at some examples; at the very least, this is how I see it:

Example: prediction markets (Polymarket)

The big picture:
This isn’t betting; it’s trading on the probabilities of events.
How it works:
There is an event: “X will happen / will not happen”
Price (e.g., $0.63) = 63% probability
You buy “shares” of the outcome
If the event occurs, the share is worth $1
If not, the share is worth $0
Key features:
The price is determined by the market (people)
You can exit early (sell your position)
There is a two-way market (buy/sell)
This is closer to trading than to betting
Collective intelligence is often more accurate than expert predictions

Classic betting / casinos / parlays

Big picture: you bet against the bookmaker, not against other players.
Key features:
The bookmaker always comes out ahead (margin)
There is no proper secondary market
You cannot exit flexibly (cashout is limited and unprofitable)
Parlays increase risk (and the profit is an illusion)
Odds are artificially lowered
The bookmaker sets the odds (e.g., 1.8, 2.5)
In a parlay:
you must predict ALL events correctly
if one doesn’t come through = loss

[Gozie51]

In a bookmaker with a parlay you're essentially playing against the bookie. On a market I'm not sure where the money for such multiplies would come.

Your submissions are right. I think the prediction market is just like the trading features where you decide on one item at a time. Maybe the provision for clustered market is not made yet as it is considered like single feature unlike in parley gambling where bookmakers calculate all accumulated odds together. Maybe in the future, this possibility will be made as it were with betting that has single and parley.

For now, I think they are both designed separately. Prediction market is not the real kind of betting as it deals not with sports or casino games but outcomes of events, political stance and decision etc. It is not a game show.

[Sim_card]

Am I wrong? Is parlay possible on prediction market?

I have visited Polymarket and I noticed parlay is not possible. These is one of the reasons many people on betting sites like Stake and Duelbit can not go for Prediction markets for their favourite clubs match to be on.

I am happy that you came up with this thread OP, because some people think that because prediction market is out, it will take food from casinos. A thread was created here in the gambling section last week on this but they forget that it's not all the fun you want that can be gotten from prediction market. This is why casinos will be in operation and continue having new gamblers coming on board. Parlay is an example of bet that cannot be made in prediction market and parlay is the fun in sportbet.

[_act_]

For now, I think they are both designed separately. Prediction market is not the real kind of betting as it deals not with sports or casino games but outcomes of events, political stance and decision etc. It is not a game show.

Prediction markets are designed differently from gambling sites but they are also still a gambling sites. You are not right about saying that prediction market is not the real kind of betting as it deals not with sports.

It is good to know that you can see sports like premier league matches on prediction markets. I have seen it there before several times but I have not bet on it before. The difference is just that the sport on prediction markets is very limited compared to gambling sites.

[rbynxx]

I know prediction markets are betting site. Even Kalshi is facing unnoticed lawsuit from Washington attorney general, saying it is a betting site. But this thread is about the reason people on prediction markets can not go for parlay.

Am I wrong? Is parlay possible on prediction market?

I have visited Polymarket and I noticed parlay is not possible. These is one of the reasons many people on betting sites like Stake and Duelbit can not go for Prediction markets for their favourite clubs match to be on.

I never seen one so it's not possible but how can you create a prediction market that only has 2-3 options. It's more direct and that's how they are unique, I think they should stay that way because I think parlay will just make it look dirty I guess. Well, prediction markets has a different market to cater considering it's general and sports betting is too specific to team and players alone as well as spreads.

They are apple and orange.

[joeperry]

Am I wrong? Is parlay possible on prediction market?

I'm not sure about this but I think parlay bets are not the basis whether it can be considered as gambling site or prediction market. I think as long as there's money involved like placing a bet and it can either win or lose, it can be considered as gambling. Personally, I think parlay bets is just a feature, it's actually optional whether they will offer it or not, same as the cashout feature, not all sports betting site have that feature. Prediction markets were just like sports betting, the difference is that you're not placing bets on sports but other type of thing or genre (e.g. politics, Bitcoin price, Gold price and other things).

Regarding your question, in Polymarket I'm not sure if it's possible unlike traditional gambling sites where it's standard in their template to have a parlay bet, the system in Polymarket is different as you were buying a unit and each transaction needs to be verified manually.

[Oshosondy]

I'm not sure about this but I think parlay bets are not the basis whether it can be considered as gambling site or prediction market. I think as long as there's money involved like placing a bet and it can either win or lose, it can be considered as gambling.

I am not saying they are not a betting site, but there have been a thread on this forum recently that says that prediction market will take over the gambling sites, but i noticed people did not post this. So I decided to come today to post about it as one of the reasons.

There are other reasons that prediction market can not take over gambling sites also but which many people have posted about before on this forum. If it is about prediction market to be regarded as a betting site, it is a betting site. You can see me acknowledged that at the start of my post, that they are both betting sites.

[eisen33]

I'm not sure about this but I think parlay bets are not the basis whether it can be considered as gambling site or prediction market. I think as long as there's money involved like placing a bet and it can either win or lose, it can be considered as gambling.

I am not saying they are not a betting site, but there have been a thread on this forum recently that says that prediction market will take over the gambling sites, but i noticed people did not post this. So I decided to come today to post about it as one of the reasons.

There are other reasons that prediction market can not take over gambling sites also but which many people have posted about before on this forum. If it is about prediction market to be regarded as a betting site, it is a betting site. You can see me acknowledged that at the start of my post, that they are both betting sites.

If they're both betting sites, players will choose the one they find more convenient, and I think it'll be hard to beat a casino. Especially considering the huge number of casinos out there. Prediction markets can be interesting because they offer unique events not found in casinos, and this will attract those who enjoy such things. But for casual players who want to place a few bets on their team, a regular casino will suffice.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Apart from the fact that prediction market doesn't have the feature of parlay bet/odd accumulation, I don't think they also allow the option of taking a cash out in the middle of the event they have bet on just like bookies does. On bookies, they can let you take a certain percentage of your potential win when the game is live and then they themselve (the bookie) is not sure of what the outcome would be, they will give the chance to take some cash out or let the game run to the end. I prefer betting site to prediction market.

[lombok]

Apart from the fact that prediction market doesn't have the feature of parlay bet/odd accumulation, I don't think they also allow the option of taking a cash out in the middle of the event they have bet on just like bookies does. On bookies, they can let you take a certain percentage of your potential win when the game is live and then they themselve (the bookie) is not sure of what the outcome would be, they will give the chance to take some cash out or let the game run to the end. I prefer betting site to prediction market.

The sense of security of all the consumers of this service is much higher when they have control over the money they risk to lose in this case. Our understanding is that the prediction markets have technical constraints, which deter us to reduce risks immediately the situation alters. The proposal of the organizer to divide the potential profits in the middle of the way is an intelligent idea to ensure a balance level. The main consideration to us is the strength of this system.

[Dunamisx]

Not even now, we should not compare a betting casino platform to that of a prediction market, they are two different things and even though they are being called gambling altogether, we know what differentiates them from each other, as for me, I don't consider playing prediction market because of these are extremely outrageous when it comes to the risk of losing than winning, therefore I limited myself to playing casino games only for now.

[Wakate]

The way prediction sites is different from the way normal casinos are working and I see prediction site as a more competitive platform which can be easily manipulated because the outcome of a bet can be influenced by the government or politicians that can change the outcome of a bet if they are involved. I will prefer and stick to casinos than to waste my money on prediction websites.

[Hispo]

I think the most important difference between betting markets like polymarket and casinos with bookies like Stake is the number and variety of situations one can bet on.
Bookies are all about sports and some political and popular events, nothing else. While Polymarket and other of it's competitors offer the opportunity to bet on pretty much anything, from the price of Bitcoin to political events.
There are more regulatory restrictions on bookies, while for now Betting markets are kind of a wild west for people to get involved in

[Sandra_hakeem]

Am I wrong? Is parlay possible on prediction market?

It is possible that in the future prediction markets may offer parlay bets, but currently they are not offered in prediction markets so this is the difference with crypto casinos in general.
What I'm still surprised to see is that there are people who think the prediction market is not a bet.

As crazy as that may sound, that's the truth. Infact, isn't this the same premise that got Polymarket in operation for years, without a license? They're not a casino (which I can agree with) but they allow betting, aside the prediction market trend.

Betting in the casino that we play there the bookies offer a lot about betting: You can see in the sports betting mentioned, there are features “Early payout, Parlay, betbuilder, multiple odds if you put multiple teams into the match”. This is not available in Polymarket.

I can believe this, since it's done on a blockchain and you need to buy p2p shares for it.

[YOSHIE]

I have visited Polymarket and I noticed parlay is not possible. These is one of the reasons many people on betting sites like Stake and Duelbit can not go for Prediction markets for their favourite clubs match to be on.

As far as I know and my understanding, the structure of the Polymarket prediction site is very different from the parlay in general that I have seen in the Polymarket prediction market. The Polymarket mechanism is more like binary betting or Peer-to-Peer, you only have two buttons true/false or yes and no.

Meanwhile, the main purpose of parlay is to increase your bet. In short, one of the advantages of parlay betting is that it is often used, namely making double bets. You can add a bet in the second half in sports betting, I think in prediction betting if you use the parlay feature, the prediction site is much more at risk of paying double for the user, that's not a business.