I think "ignored" is a strong word to use. The threat can be seen beyond the horizon
at best. Perhaps it's not a priority to them now?
I hate to repost something I typed in another thread, but I feel it is relevant to this topic:
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I don't understand much about quantum computers which are likely to be the future of technology, but from the bits and pieces I've read, there's a possibility that quantum computers could hack the private keys of bitcoin addresses in the early days using P2PK technology
I'm sure Bitcoin developers will find ways to improve wallet security, but what about early wallets that are inactive or no longer in use? Like Satoshi's wallet? Will there be a "treasure hunt" where people hack early Bitcoin addresses?
I fear that this "treasure hunt" era will become a legalized illegal activity. There was no legal basis or proof of ownership for the early wallet addresses, even though everyone claimed they were Satoshi's wallets.
Moreover, in the future, bitcoin mining will not produce many bitcoins or bitcoin reserves will be completely mined, will "treasure hunters" become a new trend?
Or is there another way to increase security on a sleeping wallet?
If my understanding of bitcoin history is correct, I don't think the rise of an emerging technology, like quantum computing in this case, is the first time it has created a little anxiety for bitcoin holders. The whole "treasure hunters" era you are describing is happening not only in the very present day, but in the past as well.
For example, in the early years I'm pretty sure people were concerned about bitcoin's fundamental cryptography, specifically the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, and how it might not be secure long-term. These concerns were kinda more philosophical in nature, whereas the quantum threat is more theoretical. I only say theoretical, not to mean impossible, but more so to mean not really feasible/practical in the world we currently live in. Math and current number of qubits (which are error prone, loud, and don't last a long time) tell a story that it could be a reality one day. Then you get into the conversation of "logical qubits", which are the ones that are relevant in terms of breaking cryptography/encryption, don't exist yet. If they do exist today, there would probably be only a couple of them in a highly experimental state.
Android RNG vulnerabilites scared a lot of people too, but that made sense since actual bitcoin was stolen for some. The ASIC miners also created a scare for bitcoin because people thought they could potentially cause a centralization of hashing power and possible 51% attacks. The whole thing about public key exposure and reusing an address also created fear for bitcoin, but solutions like good practices in not reusing the same address twice and utilizing hierarchical deterministic wallets put most folks at ease. When SHA-1 was demonstrated to be insufficient and weak, people started to immediately question SHA-256.
Honestly, someone should make a fear and greed index-type of display that estimates the current public's view of bitcoin's security and hardness. This shit just goes up and down and up and down for one reason or another. It never seems to end, lol. What will be the new scare after quantum computing threats are pacified? My guess will probably be government overreach and corruption. World leaders and powerful people who run private companies seem to have no issue with partaking in the human trafficking of minors. You think they are above forcing known individuals who possess lots of bitcoin to hand over their private keys?
Forgot to mention satoshi implementing mining difficulty into bitcoin in terms of answering your statement's regarding bitcoin being "completely mined". It's one of his most genius aspects of bitcoin, because it shows his awareness of exponential technological development/progression.
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Here's a helpful link:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MythsAnd here's the part you should jump to:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#Quantum_computers_would_break_Bitcoin's_securityI encourage you to read Edwards' article. I'll quote from it here:
"Qubits" can be considered the processing power units of quantum computers. You will hear people distinguish between "physical qubits" and "logical qubits." Physical qubits are the raw, hardware-level processing units, while logical qubits are the error-corrected qubits which rely on many physical qubits to behave like a single, more reliable qubit.
It’s logical qubit counts that we generally care about when predicting the processing power necessary to run Shor’s algorithm, trigger Q-Day, break Bitcoins current cryptography and unlock expansive cross-industry innovations.
It turns out you only need about 2300 logical qubits (or around 100,000 physical qubits) to break Bitcoin’s cryptography, and five of the top global quantum computing companies are forecasting that capability within the next 2-5 years. . .
We’ve surveyed Q-Day estimates from qualified quantum physicists, cyber security councils and the top quantum computing companies globally. Where a major quantum company’s official statement or roadmap includes a logical qubit count in the multi-thousands, we consider that sufficient to break Bitcoin’s cryptography, as 2300 logical qubits is the generally accepted threshold required.
If you collate these industry expert estimates for when Bitcoin’s Q-Day is expected, you will find that Q-Day will almost certainly occur within the next 2-9 years and with high probability from 2030. . .
Using this data, we calculate the probability of Q-Day occurring per year using a discrete probability distribution (probability mass function). Each expert’s Q-Day estimate year (or range of years) is treated as equally likely to occur. So we simply add the probabilities by year, then average them so each source has an equal weight. The full calculation logic is available here.
As the below chart shows, this gives a powerful finding. Q-Day threat to Bitcoin is not 20 years away as some would like to think.
Bitcoin Q-Day is likely to occur by 2030 (60% chance) and probable by 2031 (80% chance). Furthermore all of the expert estimates, which includes 6 of the world leading quantum computing companies, fall within the next 9 years.
Note that we haven’t included Quantinuum yet, the current world leader in quantum computing. In 2025 they achieved 50 logical qubits. Several companies are expecting well over 100 logical qubits in 2026. . .
Realistically the timeframe to update Bitcoin code and migrate the majority of active users across to quantum resistant wallets and addresses is approximately 2 years. In an extremely optimistic and aggressive scenario this might be feasible in 1 year, but is more likely to be closer to 3 years, as the below diagram elicits. . .
DEBUNKED: “quantum computers are too unstable and you will need millions of qubits to crack Bitcoin”
Let’s debunk another myth, that quantum computing is too error prone or unstable and that you need millions of physical qubits to trigger Q-Day.
Quantum computing error rates (what separates physical and logical qubit counts) are also reducing exponentially. Counterintuitively, according to Google in 2024, “the more qubits we use, the more we reduce errors, and the more quantum the system becomes.”
This has seen the number of physical qubits required to run shor’s algorithm and trigger Q-Day drop like a rock. Just 6 months ago you would have heard people say you need millions of qubits to break Bitcoin’s encryption. Well that number has plummeted and as of the latest research it’s only 100,000 physical qubits.
A year ago it was millions, 6 months ago it was 1 million, today just 100,000 physical qubits are needed to break RSA 2048, trigger Q-Day and breach Bitcoin’s cryptography.
How many qubits will be needed in a year?
Do the math. Follow the trend.
