March 2020 mini crash - the rehearsal of something much bigger ?

[JaanusRaim]

The March 2020 crash has become very interesting for me, firstly because it is one of the biggest events in the cryptos relatively stable post-2017 history, and secondly - and that is more important - because there is a remarkable probability that something similar will happen in the nearest future.

What was the March 2020 crash?
To say shortly, it was the sharp fall of the major stock indexes, real estate and crypto prices due to Corona-related restrictions. During the one month period from February 14, 2020 to March 14, 2020 the Standard and Poor 500 index lost about 1/3 (fell from 3400 to 2300) and Bitcoin about 1/2 (fell from 10 000 to 5000 usd). After that the prices recovered quickly: by May 1, 2020 BTC was 9000 usd again and stayed around 10 000 usd all the summer.

Today again the economic crash (incl Standard and Poor 500 index fall 50+ percentages) is probable in the medium run because of remarkably high P/E ratios and in the short run because of high oil prices.

Does history rhymes and if yes, what we can learn from March 2020 mini crash?

[noorman0]

-snip-
After that the prices recovered quickly: by May 1, 2020 BTC was 9000 usd again and stayed around 10 000 usd all the summer.

At that time, global governments responded to the crisis with a near-universal policy of confronting an event that almost no one could cope with: the "new normal." Today is clearly very different. This is no longer just an energy crisis (which some countries may not see as a threat at all), but also an old moral and humanitarian crisis that is being resuscitated for the sake of "business."

[logfiles]

I don't think the current downtrend is similar to the March 2020 crash. This is slow while the one back then was a sharp fall which happened within hours. I vividly remember that day because I had open positions.
Also, everything was going down. From Gold, oil to stocks and crypto unlike right now where oil has been moving in the opposite direction. The only other time I can compare the 202 crypto mini crash is the FTX saga crash or even that Luna crush. The price is usually very volatile and starts bouncing back up within about 24 hours

[JaanusRaim]

I remember one of the main narratives was then: "Bitcoin is already too old and well proven itself to disappear."

[Yaunfitda]

I remember one of the main narratives was then: "Bitcoin is already too old and well proven itself to disappear."

Or "it had died many times" already, but that narrative is flaw in the beginning as Bitcoin is not a bubble that once it was burst, there's no way that it can re-born itself like the Tulip mania. But if you talk about mini crash in March 2020, don't you forget that we are in the Covid-era that time. It was the first time that we have heard it in March 2020. I remember that I was about to go out with my friends but they said that it seems everything has been lock down by the the police. So I don't know if there will be as big as that kind of human event that can affect all the markets, maybe a war that we are witnessing could be one as their is collateral damage, those countries that don't have oil reserves or at least oil that won't last for months if the war is going to continue in the long run.

[EarnOnVictor]

-Snip-
Today again the economic crash (incl Standard and Poor 500 index fall 50+ percentages) is probable in the medium run because of remarkably high P/E ratios and in the short run because of high oil prices.

Does history rhymes and if yes, what we can learn from March 2020 mini crash?

I don't buy the idea of bringing external markets into Bitcoin affair in the name of correlation, and Bitcoin is enough to provide anyone whatever they need to study it and predict what could happen. If S&P500 is used for Bitcoin and Bitcoin is used for S&P500, what sense is that? Is that not distracting? Fine correlation happens, but there is no perfect correlations, which is why it's good to focus on the prevailing asset in question and do the thorough weighing based on its own data.

As it is, it's no news that Bitcoin will bounce back, as it only needs a few time to fulfill its bearish course, period. It's own history will repeat itself, and it has always been.

[buwaytress]

Not even sure how it could be attributed to covid, but I suppose it makes sense that all the other things you mentioned contributed, in tandem.

Then again, if I'm honest I don't remember it in the least. Perhaps that's why you call it a mini-crash, one simply shouldn't remember mini-crashes. Don't think the Terra, FTX, et al fiasco saw this as a rehearsal -- now that I can't forget.