realistically going to 5 watts instead of 9.5 watts is not much help
In a way, that's the point I wanted to make.
It's true that it consumes less while doing more. But how much more?
The real breakthrough is being able to do the same thing for half the time I used to.
Incidentally, there's now a proposal from Bitmain that somewhat aligns with what I'm trying to say.
The U3S23H model promises to have twice the hash rate of the S23 Hyd model, but it also consumes twice as much power. In other words, it's true that the equipment does more, but in practice it consumes the same amount of energy.
For me, the real breakthrough would be the U3S23H model, with the same hash rate it has today, consuming the same amount of energy as the S23e U2H model.
Because if we look at the last few years, between the S19 and S23 models, we had an average reduction of 5-6 J/T. Which is very little. Yes, it's true, on a large scale it could become significant. But, the cost of energy will need to come down, otherwise it won't be very meaningful. But in reality, it is already very difficult for large mining companies to lower energy costs even further, even before the problems in Hormuz.
I understand that it may be difficult for hardware companies to reduce consumption even further. But as for BITMAIN and others, are they really investing in research to improve? It seems to me that they are simply taking advantage of the natural improvements that the chip market is presenting. With the money they earned, they could have invested more in research laboratories.
Gear efficiency does not help.
The big companies buy it the hash rate goes up and back to square 1.
Price price price price is what saves a miner.
But etf's and paper btc tend to drop and suppress btc price.
So I would argue that 150k sooner than later is what miners need.
My 2400 power bill would earn 6000 a month that would be 6000-2400= 3600 a month an no cost to get there.
Rather than earning 3000 a month
Getting gear that burns 1200 a month means 3000-1200= 1800 profit and I would need to buy a ton of gear
I rather efficiency ends at 9 watts.
Then I never need to buy gear to catch up.
I also rather see prices well over 150k.