People completely misunderstanding odds at the casino

[Free Market Capitalist]

Yeah, I’ve seen people say things like that too. For example, if in a 98% RTP game the casino offers a 20% cashback promotion, some people think they’ll get an RTP of 118%, instead of realizing that the 20% is applied to the casino’s 2% margin, so the actual RTP ends up being 98.4%. That’s why casinos are such profitable businesses—because most players don’t understand the math, even though many think they do.

[Outhue]

There are also those gamblers who believe that by placing bets where they have 90% winning chance or more means it's a safe bet. Moreover, there was a common belief in dice games when the first platforms were launched that if you started with 1 satoshi base bet and set an automatic bot to play for you applying martingale strategy, it was possible to make passive income from online gambling.

Many people tried the method back then thinking it was legit, and ended losing decent bankrolls just to make 1 satoshis profit per bet... And even after losing it was hard to understand why it happened that way, since it looked impossible to lose 20 times in a row, for an example.

As the industry evolves, old misunderstandings look dumb, but new false beliefs start being developed and adopted by gamblers. It's a never ending cycle.

However a game likes like doesn't gives the end results, this is why it's called gambling, you can't be so sure that one side will win until the game is over, stupid people are the ones trusting anything that's based on prediction, even if the trusted team or side is much stronger anything can still happen that will prevent them from winning.

Sometimes been smart isn't about inventing something the world haven't seen before, sometimes been smart is just having common sense, gambling has already described itself, when something is based on probability it's beyond your might, you have to prepare for positive and negative sides, risk only what you can afford to use.

[lombok]

However a game likes like doesn't gives the end results, this is why it's called gambling, you can't be so sure that one side will win until the game is over, stupid people are the ones trusting anything that's based on prediction, even if the trusted team or side is much stronger anything can still happen that will prevent them from winning.

Sometimes been smart isn't about inventing something the world haven't seen before, sometimes been smart is just having common sense, gambling has already described itself, when something is based on probability it's beyond your might, you have to prepare for positive and negative sides, risk only what you can afford to use.

There is never any way of knowing what will happen after a game when sports betting. Even the most correct prediction are vulnerable to the occurrence of unexpected event that may bring the tide. Probabilities are not something within one’s full control and common sense dictates it. It is important to be prepared in case of good and bad results. Stake in a bet you can manage to go without without affecting your quotidian needs.

[lovesmayfamilis]

I'm curious, are these biases or some gamblers' illusions still existing in this modern world?
Especially now, most online casino games already use new tech features like RNGs or some algorithms or mathematics for shuffling, etc.

It reminds me of those stories when people can't get used to one case where they somehow got lucky one day. It doesn't matter when a successful event took place, ten years ago or five; some people will stubbornly think that the manipulations they once "created" will help them in future games on slot machines of the latest developments. There are even examples of animals giving up on repeating their daily habits, rather than humans staying true to their memories for a very long time.

[Judith87403]

Well, people generally misunderstand a lot of things. But society needs such people. They are very necessary. The economy is supported by their expenses. For example, a person who makes impulsive purchases of things he doesn't need is useful to the economy as a consumer, because he is easily amenable to marketing. Similarly, gamblers who have a very vague understanding of probability theory are very useful for the development of the gambling business.

Very true, it all depends on their choices, as far they are not wasted but useful to contribute to the growth to the economy, but still has to be conscious and mindful, in order to do what will later result in regrets, which will make them to make decisions due to their inability to control their emotions, which they are to understand and keep it in mind that winnings come with how lucky one is and not how smart one is. So, they should protect themselves from potential harm, which can affect their lives and their future.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I was talking this thing one day and based on what few persons said then, the reason why some people believe in such fallacies is because there have been lucky with it a few times and that luck just completely envelope their heart to believe that what worked before is going to work always. Some gamblers have a good knowledge of. This things and do not believe in such misconception.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Players' misconceptions of this kind are primarily related to the Martingale system. And all these misconceptions generally revolve around the assertion that can be roughly formulated as follows: "If black has appeared many times, the probability of red appearing the next time increases." How true is this? If a slot machine uses, so to speak, normal randomness, it's unlikely that black will appear 20-30 times in a row, although it's entirely possible, and I've seen it happen. It's also possible to see 100 consecutive blacks, although that's extremely rare.

[Smartprofit]

The ability to accurately calculate the probabilities of certain events is not an innate biological mechanism in humans (like, for example, the ability to walk). 🙋

During biological evolution, the ability to accurately calculate probabilities was not essential for survival. When a person encountered a saber-toothed tiger on a trail, they simply ran, fought, or hid. They had no time for mathematical calculations... Perhaps there were people who, when confronted by a saber-toothed tiger, tried to calculate the probability of a fatal outcome. But all such individuals were eaten, they did not produce offspring, and, accordingly, during biological evolution, humans never learned to quickly and accurately determine the probabilities of certain events.

People have a hard time understanding the fact that a roulette wheel has no memory (and each spin of the roulette wheel is an event independent of previous spins). This is why people study mathematics in school and then in university, to understand how a roulette wheel actually works.  And those who previously did poorly in school and didn't get good grades come to the casino and believe that if there were two "red outcomes" before, now they will definitely get a "black" one!🕵️

[Wapfika]

People have a hard time understanding the fact that a roulette wheel has no memory (and each spin of the roulette wheel is an event independent of previous spins). This is why people study mathematics in school and then in university, to understand how a roulette wheel actually works.  And those who previously did poorly in school and didn't get good grades come to the casino and believe that if there were two "red outcomes" before, now they will definitely get a "black" one!🕵️

I think most of the gambler this basic that each game is independent to each other but they choose to play this way as part of their entertainment instead of betting straight without their “strategy”.

Each game is random so we can apply whatever we want given that we don’t know exactly what will be the outcome. Having a “strategy” and completely betting in random doesn’t make any difference since the result is unknown.

Those genuinely think that they can predict the outcome using their “strategy” are beyond saving most importantly if they are betting what they can’t afford to lose just because they have the confidence from their method.

[KTChampions]

To this day I realize many gamblers fall for stupid lies or fallacies.

For instance many still think a slot machine can be "loaded" as if in today's day and age any slot machine would depend on physical coins inside it to do a payout.
~

You'll be surprised, but this makes sense (at least it did for a long time, I know this from avid players of physical slot machines). Machines are legally required to maintain a certain RTP, and if you take a long-term perspective (not just a couple of outcomes, but much longer), they're simply obligated to unload at a certain point (and it's still hard to predict). That's why some players followed the "history" of slot machines, and if they knew that a machine had "won" a lot of money from a player, they would sit down to play after him.

[junder]

To this day I realize many gamblers fall for stupid lies or fallacies.

For instance many still think a slot machine can be "loaded" as if in today's day and age any slot machine would depend on physical coins inside it to do a payout.

Then there's people that genuinely believe the previous result had anything to do with the following. If red comes out two times in a row, the third one still has a 50/50 chance to come out though...

For me the one that takes the cake though is people believing it's reasonable to count cards in online live blackjack. Like really what's the point of counting cards when the shoe is cut in the half of 8 whole decks? Maybe you reduce your risk of ruin a tiny bit but the house edge is still there and there's still a lot of entropy for so many decks that are perfectly shuffled. The shuffle even happens on camera so it's pointless to argue that there's tampering. But to try and count cards is just a waste of time. The casino will just keep winning from the edge it has.

A definite point that cannot be changed is that kassino has a greater advantage and this lasts in the long run, so no matter how hard the effort is made by the player it will not be able to make the casino's advantage decrease even more so in my opinion they are hosts who do have their own rules that have been established and cannot be disputed.

Some people think about games that are better than others with a chance of winning, but in fact everything has been arranged as much as possible by the casino so that still the player's chances of winning will not be greater than the chances of losing.