Current market condition and my Thinking

[arzuo]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

This is because the global economy is not in a strong position personal incomes and many businesses are struggling to make significant profits.

However, if major global economic factors like oil or the petrodollar system are linked to BTC, the price could go above 100K before the next halving.

So, if you’re a trader, focus on trading at key resistance and support levels.

And if you’re a long-term holder, be prepared and consider buying small amounts regularly—on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Do you think so?  I’d love to hear your experiences!

[_act_]

So, if you’re a trader, focus on trading at key resistance and support levels.

This is true but traders should be very careful by not using too much leverage because high leverage can still affect them and get their trading assets to be liquidated within small range of price differences. Also traders should expect price down more or price higher more than they can expect. A good trader will plan for this before they start to trade.

[YOSHIE]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

This is a general analysis and speculation that is understood by many Bitcoin users, halving is one of the triggers for price increases, because a decrease means it is rare.

This is because the global economy is not in a strong position personal incomes and many businesses are struggling to make significant profits.

Of course, the global economy is currently unfriendly and not going well, essentially turmoil and conflict, so many investors are currently focusing on physical or real storage.

However, if major global economic factors like oil or the petrodollar system are linked to BTC, the price could go above 100K before the next halving.

It's not that easy, oil traders don't want to take risks, that's for sure, they prefer other fiat currencies, such as Euro, Real, pound, Dinar, Yuan and so on.

So, if you’re a trader, focus on trading at key resistance and support levels.

And if you’re a long-term holder, be prepared and consider buying small amounts regularly—on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Do you think so?  I’d love to hear your experiences!

Maybe this makes sense, but the points above need a lot of consideration, there are a million alternatives that can be used besides Bitcoin, that's my speculation.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

It is too early to concluded this when we still have a long way to go before the next halving, taking us a little bit backward to the last halving experience in 2024, the bullrun already begin even before we had the event taken place, while we don't know how the next one could be, if on the same pattern or the market rises at the set of the halving or even after halving has taken place as post event reaction for bullrun.

[Hardyrobust]

This just mere speculation and I do believe the opposite that the price may likely go above $100 before the next bitcoin halving. However, the best advice is to focus on the part of buying more bitcoin and not allow the market trends or price of bitcoin to influence ones decisions.
The fact that so many businesses as you have mentioned is struggling doesn't mean the same thing is applicable or happen to bitcoin investment . Bitcoin price isn't regulated by what you have mentioned and I don't see any of this reasons you gave preventing bitcoin from reaching $100k before the next bitcoin halving.

[whiteblue]

So, if you’re a trader, focus on trading at key resistance and support levels.

And if you’re a long-term holder, be prepared and consider buying small amounts regularly—on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Do you think so?  I’d love to hear your experiences!

I think instead of trading we should accumulate bitcoin gradually over time to get more bitcoin at the lowest price, at least until the next halving to get a better price increase opportunity, trading is high risk especially short-term trading it will make us complacent by paying attention to price movements every day.
The economic situation is uncertain and conflicts everywhere, companies are reluctant to do risky things including investing in volatile assets, we know BTC is still in doubt by many people especially during times of conflict.

[Awaklara]

And if you’re a long-term holder, be prepared and consider buying small amounts regularly—on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Gradual purchases or one-time purchases for long-term holders should not be a problem in the current market conditions. We are in a bearish trend, we can make gradual purchases, or investors who have already accumulated capital ready to be invested will, of course choose the best price. I am not sure about the $100k target before the halving. But it could happen if market conditions improve, as you said. So we do not know for sure whether it could reach $100k before the halving or not. What is certain is that we are seeing Bitcoin rise above $70k again. But I think there will be another decline.

[yhiaali3]

Under these turbulent global economic conditions, I do not expect Bitcoin to return to a price of $100K. Also do not forget that we are still in a bearish season until after the next Bitcoin halving.

Therefore, in such turbulent times, it is best to stay away from futures trading and focus on a long-term DCA strategy by buying on every dip or during certain weekly times. Long-term Bitcoin holders are always the winners.

[aoluain]

However, if major global economic factors like oil or the petrodollar system are linked to BTC, the price could go above 100K before the next halving.

I think there is a chance we could see the market hit and pass $100k before the next halving.
This current Bear market was set but not guaranteed to start turning around September/October
of this year.

I think the initial shocks of this war on Iran have yet to be realised in full and the ceasefire wont
lead to anything constructive and so fighting will resume disrupting oil and LNG prices and
supply even further along with supply chains. This will hit everyones pockets, inflation will rise
affecting everyone further. There is an awful lot of debt held by the majority of people, those
loans will have to be paid along with higher prices of goods, I think this could hot Bitcoin in the
short term.

Long term I think the end of the petrodollar is on the horizon which could bring serious repurcussions
to wall street and so maybe Bitcoin could be viewed again as a safe haven for wealth to escape the
traditional markets turmoil.

Thats my simplified version on how I think long term and before the halving the market could shift.

[l99l]

I'm a long-term holder, so just like you said, I'm growing my portfolio by making weekly and monthly purchases.
I wish I could take more risks and trade at the right times to increase my bitcoin holdings, but I'm not very skilled at it. I've tried a few times recently. Actually, I don't even know if I'm skilled I haven't tried much, I've just always bought and held.

[khiholangkang]

Under these turbulent global economic conditions, I do not expect Bitcoin to return to a price of $100K. Also do not forget that we are still in a bearish season until after the next Bitcoin halving.

Therefore, in such turbulent times, it is best to stay away from futures trading and focus on a long-term DCA strategy by buying on every dip or during certain weekly times. Long-term Bitcoin holders are always the winners.

But if $100k comes back before the halving, it will be very surprising for sure, but don't get your hopes up and dream in broad daylight.
 
We are in a bearish phase that is still very new as the beginning of this year's cycle, what happens is only the usual downward and upward sideways fluctuations as a form of price consolidation and the formation of daily bitcoin support.
 
I agree don't trade, it's better to collect slowly every day bitcoin that can be collected by each person, don't look for quick profits in trading it will only torture yourself if you don't calculate well.

[akamit]

However, if major global economic factors like oil or the petrodollar system are linked to BTC, the price could go above 100K before the next halving.

I think there is a chance we could see the market hit and pass $100k before the next halving.
This current Bear market was set but not guaranteed to start turning around September/October
of this year.

I think the initial shocks of this war on Iran have yet to be realised in full and the ceasefire wont
lead to anything constructive and so fighting will resume disrupting oil and LNG prices and
supply even further along with supply chains. This will hit everyones pockets, inflation will rise
affecting everyone further. There is an awful lot of debt held by the majority of people, those
loans will have to be paid along with higher prices of goods, I think this could hot Bitcoin in the
short term.

Long term I think the end of the petrodollar is on the horizon which could bring serious repurcussions
to wall street and so maybe Bitcoin could be viewed again as a safe haven for wealth to escape the
traditional markets turmoil.

Thats my simplified version on how I think long term and before the halving the market could shift.

The petrodollar point is interesting and I think that's the wildcard most people aren't pricing in. If dollar dominance in oil trade starts eroding more visibly, the safe haven narrative for Bitcoin gets a real world stress test, not just a theoretical one.

The September/October turning point is plausible but a lot depends on whether the geopolitical situation stabilizes by then. If the ceasefire holds and supply chains start recovering, sentiment could shift faster than expected. If it doesn't, inflation stays sticky and risk appetite stays low, which isn't great for BTC short term regardless of the halving cycle.

Personally I think $100k before the next halving is possible but needs a few things to go right at the same time, macro settling down, institutional demand picking back up, and some positive regulatory news. Any one of those alone probably isn't enough.

[jossiel]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

This is because the global economy is not in a strong position personal incomes and many businesses are struggling to make significant profits.

When this storm economically is done, we'll see a redemption period.

However, if major global economic factors like oil or the petrodollar system are linked to BTC, the price could go above 100K before the next halving.

Since Iran is okay accepting BTC payments for the ships which likes to pass the Strait of Hormuz, the demand will surge and so that's double good things, as the economy of most will recover and this demand for BTC will be more.

And if you’re a long-term holder, be prepared and consider buying small amounts regularly—on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Do you think so?  I’d love to hear your experiences!

DCA as usual, it doesn't change as a good strategy for the newbies and even long time investors.

[rbynxx]

And if you’re a long-term holder, be prepared and consider buying small amounts regularly—on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Do you think so?  I’d love to hear your experiences!

I think I'll be okay with this. Crypto is very early even at this point and I think it haven't matured yet and to be prepared on that maturity it's really the heat case scenario to DCA and buy small amount and keep it. This kind of strategy works and it has been proven by lot of holders out there. It's good to be a trader but in my experience it costs your peace and mental health considering on focusing that much, it could be profitable but I think I'm not built for that.

[AVE5]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

This is because the global economy is not in a strong position personal incomes and many businesses are struggling to make significant profits.

In other for us all to be in the safer side  because this speculations that global economy markets has influence on bitcoin market is something I still not convinced yet.
We're always here and there scripting what we feels about about the forces driving bitcoin markets and volatility without being too sure about it.
It's still in this same forum that we talks about wars and inflations being manipulatable on the bitcoin price but yet the institution companies such as the Strategy, Black Rock and the rest are buying bitcoin aggressively on regular basis even under the public cries.
From other historical performance, bitcoin price does rebound in the long term to the range of the previous ATH before it came halving in the current cycle.
So the $100,000 is possible as though.

[laspol65]

Do you think so?  I’d love to hear your experiences!

At present, due to the war situation in the country, the country's economic situation has become very weak, there has been a fuel crisis in the country. However, if this war situation is controlled or suspended, the price of Bitcoin will definitely improve somewhat, because due to the suspension of the war for a few days, the price of Bitcoin has moved towards others.
However, this opportunity should be used, since the selling price has been corrected a lot, so Bitcoin should definitely be purchased for long-term purposes. Only those who buy and participate in Bitcoin at this time will be able to gain more benefits. And will be able to succeed economically.

[Pandorak]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

Just because Bitcoin has fallen below $100k and is currently trading at $73k doesn’t mean it’s impossible for it to rise again to reach or even break through the $100k mark. In truth, no one knows for sure, we’re all just speculating, but that possibility will always exist.

So, if you’re a trader, focus on trading at key resistance and support levels.

Yes, that’s true. However, trading is often strongly discouraged in volatile markets like the current one, especially if you’re a beginner. It’s a different story if you’re already well established in the market, have some experience, and fully understand its dynamics and risks.

And if you’re a long-term holder, be prepared and consider buying small amounts regularly—on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Do you think so?  I’d love to hear your experiences!

This is the best option, and i highly recommend doing this, not only to keep your investment safe, but also to protect your mental well-being from the stress of a highly volatile market. So keep practicing DCA and focus on long term choices.

[Cryptohygenic]

So, if you’re a trader, focus on trading at key resistance and support levels.

Hmm; is that the trending or reliance trusted strategies for you or what?
So you're telling us that once you focus your trades on these two key ratios of market volatility the trader will be guaranteed to be successful?
I Hope you don't fall a dead trap because this your decision is not logical enough to yield success traders using the concept.

[Darker45]

The next halving is expected to happen in April of 2028. That's still 2 years from now. So many things could still happen in between.

Also, there has been a pattern of a surge shortly before the halving. As a matter of fact, in the case of the last halving, an ATH was even reached around a month before the halving. If that repeats, then $100,000 could be reached before April 2028.

But, all in all, I think $100,000 is a very easy target. We could even reach that within the year.

[Iranus]

This just mere speculation and I do believe the opposite that the price may likely go above $100 before the next bitcoin halving. However, the best advice is to focus on the part of buying more bitcoin and not allow the market trends or price of bitcoin to influence ones decisions.
The fact that so many businesses as you have mentioned is struggling doesn't mean the same thing is applicable or happen to bitcoin investment . Bitcoin price isn't regulated by what you have mentioned and I don't see any of this reasons you gave preventing bitcoin from reaching $100k before the next bitcoin halving.

I do not know if Bitcoin will surpass the $100k before the halving takes place. Because we have no basis on which to make a reasonable prediction. Those who make prediction are simply basing them on their own expectation.

However, I disagree with your assertion that Bitcoin is not governed by the factor mentioned by the OP. Bitcoin is only a small part of the economy, it is not a standalone entity.  It is not only influenced by but also largely driven by the flow of money in the economy.

What reason do you have to believe that Bitcoin will surpass the $100k before the halving?