Current market condition and my Thinking

[JeffBrad12]

Price rally on the next halving is obvious. What not obvious is the current geopolitical situation that could wreck the price of crypto in the long run.
Actually I think bitcoin going to $100k is easy. So many FVG left unfilled in the higher price range especially 88k - $100k before the dump. It could fill that gap in the future and the price showing strength in retesting the resistance again around the price of $76k.

Just be optimistic with bitcoin, $100k is not hard. What is hard is keeping ETF from having too much outflow when war is ongoing.

[mindrust]

It is pretty random imo. It feels btc will go down a lot since it is already beaten up a lot but that sentiment can change very quickly when the price starts moving up again. Then people will think it is targeting $1 million in a year… I think it is best to not overthink about the price and let the time do the heavy lifting for you because you already have a position and no matter how hard you think about it, your brain waves won’t be moving the markets  in a direction you want. Only buy and sell when the environment conditions favor you. If it went up a lot, sell some. If it is down a lot buy some. Ez pz

[laijsica]

Personally you can make any guesses about the future of Bitcoin's price, but I think your guesses will not be correct. Bitcoin's price reached its highest level in October 2024. This was a significant ATH for Bitcoin and an impressive level of $126k. After that, the wave of instability in the global economy due to the impact of historical tariffs hit Bitcoin's price.

The next step was the war situation in the Middle East and caused more disasters for the global economy. As the war was going on, the price of Bitcoin started to slow down a bit and currently, an upward trend is being observed during the improvement of the war situation and I think the price of Bitcoin can touch $100k in the second quarter of the year.

[Smack That Ace]

Personally you can make any guesses about the future of Bitcoin's price, but I think your guesses will not be correct. Bitcoin's price reached its highest level in October 2024. This was a significant ATH for Bitcoin and an impressive level of $126k. After that, the wave of instability in the global economy due to the impact of historical tariffs hit Bitcoin's price.

The next step was the war situation in the Middle East and caused more disasters for the global economy. As the war was going on, the price of Bitcoin started to slow down a bit and currently, an upward trend is being observed during the improvement of the war situation and I think the price of Bitcoin can touch $100k in the second quarter of the year.

The OP's prediction might not be accurate, but there is no guarantee your prediction will come true either. Market is unpredictable, and as you said, we can make any prediction about the future of Bitcoin's price. But most of us make prediction based on personal desires, very few people take the time to analyze and make prediction based on actual data. Therefore, respect other people's prediction and do not be overconfident in your own, because nothing is certain and no one know what will happen next.

I think we should plan and prepare for every possible scenario instead of trying to predict and argue about who is right and who is wrong.

[michellee]

I agree with you @OP but we don't know if Bitcoin price will not go above $100 before the next halving. No one will know but we can still hopes that the price will be back to $100k.

If you are a trader, just focusing by analyzing for the potential coins. You need to finds the time to enter to the market and don't have to wait for the signal from others but analyze by yourself. That will be worth to do as you can improves your skills better.

You can also accumulating more Bitcoin so you don't have to focus on trading as you only need to focus with accumulation on Bitcoin so you will have more chances to make a big profit in the next ATH.

You have your own options but you should be careful deciding. Don't forget research before decide so you can avoiding the mistakes.

[Hewlet]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

This is because the global economy is not in a strong position personal incomes and many businesses are struggling to make significant profits.

However, if major global economic factors like oil or the petrodollar system are linked to BTC, the price could go above 100K before the next halving.

The "IF's" and However is still a way of suggesting an high level of uncertainty in your statement and just like the partern that most speculation takes, it can happen or not happen and while you're yet making your speculation, we can still see bitcoin going higher far above the $100k we are talking about considering that $100k is not really a big deal as such.

The global economy doesn't look like one that's getting better anytime soon. In the midst of a fluctuating economy, any system that we hope will do well in the long run will eventually have to survive and become even stronger and become even in the midst of those sorts of uncertainty. Before the halving, it's very likely we will get to $100k.

[Swordsoffreedom]

The next halving will take place around April 2028, which is about two year from now. That timeframe is neither too long nor too short, and we can not know what will happen to the economy or its impact on the market. In this case, experience is not very helpful because most of the factor affecting the market are beyond our control. Therefore, attempting to predict whether Bitcoin will surpass the $100k before the halving is unnecessary and not very meaningful, IMO

[Agbamoni]

The "IF's" and However is still a way of suggesting an high level of uncertainty in your statement and just like the partern that most speculation takes, it can happen or not happen and while you're yet making your speculation, we can still see bitcoin going higher far above the $100k we are talking about considering that $100k is not really a big deal as such.

The global economy doesn't look like one that's getting better anytime soon. In the midst of a fluctuating economy, any system that we hope will do well in the long run will eventually have to survive and become even stronger and become even in the midst of those sorts of uncertainty. Before the halving, it's very likely we will get to $100k.

One thing is for sure, past occurrences do not determine future results. Secession is a normal thing in Bitcoin some may be right, while some may be wrong. At the end of the day, no one has ever predicted the price of Bitcoin perfectly consistently. Instead of speculating and thinking about the market conditions. This is the right time to take advantage of the market.

Talking about the global economy, it seems things will get worse each day that passes. Oil prices are rising higher, at the moment, nothing can be done to solve the problem except for the war to cease.

[348Judah]

Several thought could definitely come on one's mind when the market is more volatile in this manner, whereby we may be thinking of the market going bullish or the opposite as the case may be, but before we arrive at any conclusion, it is essential that we research about the market and try to figure out where exactly the market is heading towards by checking on our indicators, take much time to speculate and also have patience enough to study the market moves and pattern before drawing a conclusion.

[cxtreenal]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

To be honest, another experienced investor made the same prediction to me. Your two assumptions are very similar.

This is because the global economy is not in a strong position personal incomes and many businesses are struggling to make significant profits.

The world economy is going through a recession and we should probably be prepared for worse because more wars are being prepared in the future. Inflation in the affected countries will increase in the coming times and poverty as well.

However, if major global economic factors like oil or the petrodollar system are linked to BTC, the price could go above 100K before the next halving.

Basically, the pressure on the US dollar will increase and it will also decrease the amount of trade it does with its allies through petrodollars. This is because this war situation in the Middle East will not calm down very soon and if it does create a calm situation now, it will take many more years to stabilize the economy.

[LogitechMouse]

From my past experience, I don’t think the BTC price will go above 100K before the next halving.

I don't think about it happening as well, but like what I said, there's always a chance that something that hasn't happened before happen. We've seen Bitcoin surpassing it's previous ATH before the halving even happens, and that's something that hasn't happened in the history of the coin. We might see it happening, or we might not.

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And if you’re a long-term holder, be prepared and consider buying small amounts regularly—on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Do you think so?  I’d love to hear your experiences!

Whatever the case is, whatever is happening around the world, if you believe that Bitcoin will give you huge profit in the next 3-4 years, just continue to buy on a weekly basis if possible. Hold Bitcoin as long as you want, and be patient enough because the patient are the ones that are the most profitable... at least based on history and how Bitcoin's price is moving over the years.

DCA for me is the best strategy that anybody can do, and even a newbie can do it as well. If you have the capabilities to do it, do it. If you have spare money to use to buy some Bitcoin, do it.