Why are people so in denial?

[Furball808]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?".

Bear market or some corrections, is it too important if people just stay outside the market and asking such questions?

The importance is whether they take action, make decision to buy bitcoin in whatever market phase, whichever price so that they actually have bitcoin. This will help them enjoy future bull run of Bitcoin and history reveals that each market cycle, Bitcoin so far has always made its new all time high, so if people can buy and hold their coin for a bull run with a next market cycle, they will have profit.

If they just stay outside and ask such questions, they won't get any bitcoin, and surely no profit with whatever future of Bitcoin market.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-profitable-days/
https://hodl.camp/

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Well, the market is dynamic as many of us know it, and it is not written any where and stamped into law that the market will always follow the same pattern for as long as it existed, we know what bitcoin's previous cycles looked like, and there is no debating that this cycle isn't a bit different from other previous cycles, so I believe that because of the uniqueness of this cycle, some investors are yet to believe we are actually in a bear season..

And do not forget that we have alot of new investors in the space who did not experience the previous cycles of bitcoin price movement pattern, so this ones may as well be the ones who believe we are still in a bull run because to them, bitcoin is just like any other investment asset out there.

[tabas]

But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle.

Let's paraphrase this, it takes around 1 year for the market to go through a bear market and after that, capitulation and then the other situation up to the bull run.

So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

At first, I was in denial and hoping that the correction would lead to bull run still. But until we started to see the drop under $100k, to $90k and so, that's the confirmation that the bear was already in. I wouldn't call people delusional with that, that's what they think but the reality of what the market shows will make them realize of what situation is right now.

[Orpichukwu]

But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle.

I don't think I have ever witnessed any bear market that lasted for as long as a year; it doesn't last that long, maybe a year at most, aside from the 2013 bear market, which lasted for a year and 11 months from 2013 down to 2015.

If it was when Bitcoin prices had not fallen below $70k, I could have seen a reason why some don't still believe we are deeply in a bear market, but now that the market is rooming around $60k and the possibility of it even going below is also there, they should kill that mindset and accept reality. If their reason for claiming we are not yet into a bear is to convince themselves why they are not yet accumulating, they should keep on hoping.

[uneng]

You are right. We are facing a bear cycle, and it's not likely it's going to end anytime soon. We are still 2 years away from the next halving, so by there, the tendency is that we continue seeing prices going down or to remain stably low on the best scenario.

It's a situation veteran investors are already used to. Therefore, there is no reason for denial, neither for despair. It's a season of the market just like the bullish one, which have its pros and cons.

Smart investors are going to take advantage of the pros.

[salad daging]

I often hear about; Supercycle, correction, in 2026 bitcoin will reach its highest peak, the bear market is coming to an end this year, at least that's what we often hear right?

We can only speculate now, and other wild speculations may exist and sound like nonsense, to me this is normal people are free to have any opinion about the market, but during a bear market it is common for many people to panic and create news that is sometimes exaggerated.

As I observed from the history of the previous cycle that bitcoin to bullish it must wait for the bear market to subside first, and that usually takes years.

[MArsland]

Bearish and bullish markets are relative, depending on your position. If you bought when BTC was at $100K and dropped to $70K you'd certainly be in a bearish position now, given the significant decline in BTC value. However this is not the case for those who bought when BTC hit $60K, and are truly still in a bullish phase.
So, this conclusion demonstrates that perceptions of bearish and bullish market conditions are determined by the perspective of individual market participants.

[Odusko]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

The thing is that, as soon as Bitcoin start falling below the $100k region, speculators will start speculating and calling that the bear market dominance has started, but for experience investors who is in for the long term, such market reactions could mean a correction after a previous cycle all time highs., between that also we should talk about spot and leverage trader's, those are the one that begins to be in tough situations with that kind of market movement.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

The thing is that, as soon as Bitcoin start falling below the $100k region, speculators will start speculating and calling that the bear market dominance has started, but for experience investors who is in for the long term, such market reactions could mean a correction after a previous cycle all time highs., between that also we should talk about spot and leverage trader's, those are the one that begins to be in tough situations with that kind of market movement.

They are either market makers or just people who hate Bitcoin or have their business with products opposite to Bitcoin. They see such bearish market time as great opportunities to make any random price calls just to fud and make people in the market. They can have benefit from it or just want to have fun from it, it's how Bitcoin competitors or outsiders.

They can make any price calls and lower their calls with time, but soon Bitcoin will recover and make their very last calls inaccurate like a joke.

One example is Jamie Dimon
JPMorgan's Dimon says bitcoin 'is a fraud'
JPMorgan to give all wealth clients access to crypto funds.

Another one is Peter Schiff.

[pawanjain]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

Previous cycles does not guarantee future cycles. Times might have changed.
We did have 4 year cycles earlier but may be the cycles have changed now that institutions are in.
So we cannot predict if bear market or correction is about to end. I personally don't think we are in a bear market.
For me, it's just a correction like always and we will need to wait it out to make the maximum out of the next pump in bitcoin price.

[Olatundespo]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

As far as I know, the price correction period does not take much time. The current state of Bitcoin's price is a slow correction. The last ATH was touched in October last year and the price has been decreasing at a very slow rate since then. The global economy started to be affected during the cold war between the US and Israel with Iran but in the context of the military operation, the economies of various countries of the world are facing a major shock and it will probably get worse because the war is still ongoing.

No matter how you consider the current Bitcoin price movement, we are going through the decline of the last few months and this is a great time for investors to increase their Bitcoin holdings before the bullish period comes.

[Dunamisx]

I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now

You should expect that people should give contrary opinion regarding their market speculation on bitcoin performance, that we experience a little pump of the market price does not mean we are already at the exit of the bear market, instead it is a preparation for us to know what might be coming ahead in due time, because the market can be confusing and deceiving at the same time except we are more careful with our speculations in order to get the right moves or pattern for the market.

[Frankolala]

Nobody loves the bear market because it puts new investors and traders into panic since the price can dip drastically. This is why some people still find it hard to believe that we are in the bear market. It's such investors that get trapped on the way because they don't want to accept facts will help them in making right decisions.

[lionheart78]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle.

I think it is not actually 4 years, about a year or two and the remaining years is transitional years where BTC price fluctuates in a sideway pattern until months before the halving.

So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity?

They are not in denial, they just don't know.  While people who are publishing articles are just in for the money, they need more views and likes and followers, so despite the obvious, these people will write on what their viewers or readers like.

[aoluain]

Nobody loves the bear market because it puts new investors and traders into panic since the price can dip drastically. This is why some people still find it hard to believe that we are in the bear market. It's such investors that get trapped on the way because they don't want to accept facts will help them in making right decisions.

exactly, there are people out there who are indeed delusional and in their own heads have figured
that for many reasons either a.) this year is marks the end of the 4 year cycle and b.) Bear market
is not happening (and if it does its for a very short period) or c.) they just cannot bear to think of their
wallet values falling especially after crossing $100k and hitting over $120k.

Its also worth noting that the bear market doesnt last 4 years and neither does the bull market last
that long either! others have mentioned this above.

I like to think of the 4 year cycle like a "w" or even like "n u"

[silpersurfer]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

They are in denial because they don't want that and still believe that bitcoin will come back while in fact the cycle has started on a new stage starting with the usual bear market that we have felt during the 4-year recurring journey.
You don't need to make a big deal out of it because at the beginning of every cycle there are always those who are in denial about the bear market, you just leave them alone and watch how they do if you have the time, I'd rather ignore people who don't understand how the bitcoin cycle works properly here.
Shutting down what is happening is the fault of those people, you just need to remind them to keep holding the bitcoin they have if they want to survive.

[AakZaki]

I think someone who denies that it's currently in a bearish cycle is those who adopt the DCA system, as much as is talked about on the Speculation Board.
I often say that DCA Trading Bitcoin during a bearish market is too risky, and can even be psychologically disturbing due to the decline in the assets they have.

What I observed When the bearish market moves the Bitcoin price goes up a bit and falls more, that's why I say the Bitcoin DCA in a Bearish cycle is not right.
It is better to wait or look at the history of previous bearish cycles for entries, if possible make a swing trade. If not, at least wait for the end of this year until the bearish cycle is over.

[d5000]

But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle.

Why should "we" follow the "previous cycles"?

All theories that justify the "4 year cycle" are pseudoscience like the "Stock to Flow" concept which would get slammed if they got any scientific peer review. Miners simply don't have enough market participation (~0.1% of daily volume) to influence the price curve more than sentiment/profit taking/FOMO and real demand changes (e.g. because Bitcoin becomes a convenient payment mechanism for some groups) do.

There were also some cyclic movements even in the recent past which didn't "obey" the "rules" of the 4 year cycle (there was only one "real" 4 year cycle with all rules intact: 2013-2017).

- 2011/13 bulls: That were clearly 2 year cycles, with the bear market in 2011 only lasting a few months. (Okay, market was immature back then, but still.)
- 2013 bulls: There were two very pronounced bull and bear markets in 2013. The first one drove the price to about $260, only to dip down to 50$. And then it got as high as $1100.
- 2019 bull: Only half a year after the 2018 low, almost a x5 (3000$ up to 14000$). Without the COVID dip in early 2020 the 2017 high would probably have been surpassed much earlier.
- 2021 dip: 50% crash in the middle of a bull market. Looked a lot like 2013 actually.
- 2024 pre-halving ATH: For the first time the price reached an ATH before the halving in early 2024, debunking the "halving drives the ATH" theory.

Nevertheless I'm currently a bit bearish, but mainly because of the unstable geopolitical situation, which may bring us sub-60k prices.

[red4slash]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

I think it's just a matter of conviction but in this case it's urgent now because most of us are just going to keep enjoying what's happening regardless of whether it's a correction or bearish it's all the same thing where we're in a down phase and it's time for us to buy.

It doesn't matter what it's called all that matters is that we just need to put aside the money that we have and go back to loading up for the long term because debating bearish or correction actually boils down to the same condition because the correction that occurs is a decline in the increase that we have felt before.
All are free to argue about corrections and bearish because they think that bitcoin will still decline again when their current support is still not strong but in this case most of the long-term investors will not care too much because what they think is how we increase the load with the current conditions.