Why are people so in denial?

[BlackHatCoiner]

Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

No, you're just witnessing the decline of the bitcoin tourists of the 2024 cycle. Both the people who cry about this thinking it should have not happened, and those who think we're still in a bull market, are delusional. It'll take at least a year until the bull spirit returns.

We haven't even touched $50k yet. Fasten your seat belt.

[NeuroticFish]

We haven't even touched $50k yet. Fasten your seat belt.

For now Saylor (and probably a few others more) still have money and buy in pretty much everything going near the 60k. For now.

And even if we are touching 50k or going under that... it's still not as bad in other cycles. And the fact that each new cycle is "softer", plus the "hope" for a safety belt from the big investors keep people somewhat in denial, although the overall international situation goes from bad to worse, which does affect us.

And I will add something more: there are a lot of people on this forum who have witnessed more cycles. At some point you no longer care that much, since you know that if you wait some more months everything will be okay.

[I_Anime]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

The truth is that both cycle are favorable to us accumulating and holding . So we shouldn’t work ourselves out that much we should focus more on building while those that already gotten enough , focus more on holding . One the reason why I mentioned, both cycle are favorable because during the bear market we are privileged to purchase at cheaper rate , While bull market is when we will see what you have work for , because your rate of accumulation is  proportional to your ROR .

[Gozie51]

So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

You are missing anything bu I don't see those who are feeling as though the market is not bearish because they are just speculators who are expecting price to move like it has been since late last year. They are probably expecting the kind of bear that bitcoin will run into 4 digits and they will understand.

However, no one really know the actual situation of bitcoin price movement, we are just speculating using the circle of bitcoin halving which has season for bull immediately after halving and bear season returns. This season has been different from my observation because bitcoin was around this current price before halving and is returning to this level while another season of halving is cooking. This signifies that institutional hodlers are still active in accumulating more while weaker hands are still expecting ridiculous price fall for now

[Cryptomultiplier]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

The truth is that both cycle are favorable to us accumulating and holding . So we shouldn’t work ourselves out that much we should focus more on building while those that already gotten enough , focus more on holding . One the reason why I mentioned, both cycle are favorable because during the bear market we are privileged to purchase at cheaper rate , While bull market is when we will see what you have work for , because your rate of accumulation is  proportional to your ROR .

A true investor would see opportunities in any of the cycles, whether it is in a bear or bull cycle or whether it is currently in a bull trap or undergoing consolidation and finding stability.
Speculation and volatilities are the main drivers and when investors follow up on news around the world and read articles on the current world economic state, the decision to hold will always come up as the better option.

[BlackHatCoiner]

For now Saylor (and probably a few others more) still have money and buy in pretty much everything going near the 60k. For now.

I think that if Strategy survives this cycle, it'll probably be worth trillions in decades to come. They're accumulating bitcoin fast. I remember when they were at 100k BTC, and thought that they will never reach 1 million. And now here we are, and I think there's a good chance they end up in the range of 3-4 million.

And I will add something more: there are a lot of people on this forum who have witnessed more cycles. At some point you no longer care that much, since you know that if you wait some more months everything will be okay.

I think the reason they care less, is because they are no longer poor! Applies beyond bitcoin.

[Mia Chloe]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end.

4 years is actually just an estimate. Plus the fact that a cut in supply rate exponentially will definitely affect price positively these gross cumulative additions over the years topped up with the halving effect is why we naturally prefer to call it a four year cycle so yeah I actually agree with the facts d5000 put out.

Again don't ignore the fact that one of the features of successful hodling is optimism it's partly what protects a holders psychology form things like FOMO. Well this bear was kick started by trump and that is factual.

[Ziskinberg]

People only get in denial when they are close already to make profits, but the market suddenly turns bearish and eventually they lost the opportunity to hit their target. I am talking about newbies in the market, as they have less experience about how the market can easily shift market condition.

But, is there really a need to be in denial? We don't lose if we stick to buying and hodling, but if the greed to make instant profits is high, then obviously you shouldn't be here investing in bitcoin in the first place.

There are no quick profits with bitcoin, it take time, even years to process that and finally see significant profits.

[Josefjix]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

If it was correction then the price of Bitcoin will have been fluctuating between $100-115k but it's showing a different case. Remember when the price of Bitcoin was before hitting $126k? It was at the $60k level for long. That was the highest price when it moved from $20k to $60k.

The price of Bitcoin is not in correction mode, it's at the bear season period, it's going to take a cycle of years to move up above $60-70k to another high of maybe $150k. There is nothing delusional about this, that's the reality it is.

[uchegod-21]

People only get in denial when they are close already to make profits, but the market suddenly turns bearish and eventually they lost the opportunity to hit their target. I am talking about newbies in the market, as they have less experience about how the market can easily shift market condition.

..not just newbies, but everyone who had expectations from their investments and unfortunately missed the opportunity to sell their coins when they were supposed to. I am one of those investors; I and many others thought the dip was just a temporary correction, but it ended up being something more serious. It is a waste of time for any investor to keep living in denial up till now, this is yet another opportunity to accumulate more bitcoins;  hodl again longer till this season is over or till your target price is reached.

[tiCeR]

But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle.

Why should "we" follow the "previous cycles"?

All theories that justify the "4 year cycle" are pseudoscience like the "Stock to Flow" concept which would get slammed if they got any scientific peer review. Miners simply don't have enough market participation (~0.1% of daily volume) to influence the price curve more than sentiment/profit taking/FOMO and real demand changes (e.g. because Bitcoin becomes a convenient payment mechanism for some groups) do.

...

Agreed here and even if the miners had sufficient market participation in order to influence the price curve, the cycle theory would still fail as no golden rule would manifest itself such that every market participant can follow it cycle after cycle and get rich repeatedly and consistently. If I knew that there was an almost schedule-like market movement in either one or the other direction, I would front run it accordingly, so would anyone else, and so the whole cycle thing would inevitably shift towards a prediction contest as to when most of the market participants (or those with most impact) within a so called cycle make their first moves. This would then still become an unpredictable market because those who successfully front ran could decide to sell into the "late front runners" and take profits.

I think it is much more about long run tendencies. Modelling possible price fluctuations within a cycle-scheme (i. e. every 4 years) will definitely be falsified with an increasing number of those cycles. Perhaps a pseudoscientist gets one or two cycles right because he got lucky, but in general I couldn't agree more with this

All theories that justify the "4 year cycle" are pseudoscience like the "Stock to Flow" concept which would get slammed if they got any scientific peer review.

If it was to be tested and reviewed over a sufficiently or significantly long period of time, the pseudoscientific house of cards would collapse.

I remember back in the very early days the halving was a focal point because it was a technical event on the protocol level and in a way intriguing as it was interesting to see whether the protocol correctly executes without any adverse events. That is why you can see that the real price action began after the halving and not before, which in hindsight you would assume that market participants buy it up before the block reward decreases. As everything went smoothly, the price went up much more than before the halving. I have to add though that around that time there was also uncertainty because of the Mt. Gox hack and nobody could guess whether the hacker crashes the market.

And despite all the theories, we saw huge price surges and crashes way before the halving. Thinking back I know the cycle theory was discussed as it was inferred that with every halving, this or that must happen this or then. But if you look closely at how the price behaved, it didn't have much to do with cycles ever since 2011.

[d5000]

Agreed here and even if the miners had sufficient market participation in order to influence the price curve, the cycle theory would still fail as no golden rule would manifest itself such that every market participant can follow it cycle after cycle and get rich repeatedly and consistently.

I think actually a lot are trying to do this in this "cycle" and that was probably what triggered the downturn after October 2025. And of course, if you did time the "cycle" 2017-21 correctly modelled after the 2013-17 cycle that strategy would have yielded good returns. So these people are speculating at the cycle becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But already the fact that this time the downtrend began 1-2 months earlier than in the usual November/December timeframe can be a sign for that frontrunning happening. I can imagine the following outcome: We drop a bit further if there's no substantial upwards movement to the zone above 80k at least, because people will try to frontrun the "final capitulation of the cycle". But then, the bottom may be in much earlier than expected, because the capitulation already happened, and many will remember that frontrunning was a good idea - so why not to frontrun the start of the bull market? (BTW: I think however also the scenario with a bottom close to 60k is quite likely.)

I guess this is what "almost" happened in 2019 - we had a very steep surge after the 2018 capitulation. Then of course a bit of profit taking in late 2019. But only COVID may have prevented a spectacular surge already in early 2020, with the peak happening near 2020's year-end.

I have also collected some external events/news which could have triggered the "cycles" in my thread about an Alternative Cycle Theory. With the exception of Terra/Luna (which happened because the Terra/Luna system wasn't resilient enough for a bear market) the other events weren't related to any cyclist behavior, so it was merely coincidence they happened at the time they happened. For me, these events plus the "self fulfilling prophecy/frontrunning" aspect can explain the cycles alone.

I remember back in the very early days the halving was a focal point because it was a technical event on the protocol level and in a way intriguing as it was interesting to see whether the protocol correctly executes without any adverse events. That is why you can see that the real price action began after the halving and not before, which in hindsight you would assume that market participants buy it up before the block reward decreases. As everything went smoothly, the price went up much more than before the halving.

The first halving indeed could have had incidence on the price, because it actually was the start of the end of the "almost free" mining era with CPUs and not-high-end GPUs when the reward dropped. In 2013/14 you already had to buy a small ASIC to really make profit. I think this indeed should have triggered the price increase because those wanting to get Bitcoin (and speculate on a price increase) would no longer be able to "just mine" and had to actually buy.

But 2016, already I think the halving influence on demand was at most a minor factor. The bull had already started half a year before after hitting the post-MtGox bottom. And after the halving the price actually went sideways for several months.

[As-Soon-As]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

According to the cycle, the Bitcoin halving was in 2024 and 2025 was the bull season in the Bitcoin market. And in the future, the halving cycle will be in 2028, and the Bitcoin bull market will be created in 2029. From the past cycles, you will definitely see that the Bitcoin price increases in the Bitcoin market the year after the halving starts.
So now we are definitely in the moment of correction, so there is no reason to be confused. Now we buy Bitcoin and hold it for the next bull market. The more Bitcoins those who buy at this time, the more opportunities they will have to profit in the next bull market.

[m2017]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

It's foolish to deny the existence of BTC-cycles and a bearish trend if it's become a pattern and occurs periodically, but you're right in saying that people still naively believe that "tomorrow for sure" the market will soar and recover. A long, drawn-out decline lies ahead, but with occasional small rebounds. I believe that's exactly what will happen. Are there any preconditions for a different scenario? No.

Bear market or some corrections, is it too important if people just stay outside the market and asking such questions?

How can you know whether the people asking this question are outside this market or inside? If they're hoping for a market recovery, then it's reasonable to assume they're benefiting from it, meaning they're inside this market (owning crypto assets).

Of course, some people remain outside observers. But that shouldn't be the case for everyone asking about a correction and a bearish cycle.

[LogitechMouse]

---
So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

People are in denial because they can't accept the reality that we are in a bear market already.

They can't accept negative thoughts, but they're only thinking on the positive side of things. They aren't ready for the bear market, and they might be the ones that bought Bitcoin at the peak or at least above $100,000 hence, the mindset. Well, they can think like that, and yes this is a correction - a long-term correction that will take years before it ends.

Let those people think what they want to think. Don't stress yourself out. You're not missing something. It's just that they can't accept the reality and probably they lost a lot because of this downfall. Delusional? Might be, but I think it's more of a denial just like what you said. On one hand, maybe they're newbies who don't know how the market moves, and have no idea on the market cycles as well. They'll learn from what's happening that's for sure.

[Easteregg69]

It's part of trend. You rather want me entertaining?

I never give up on Greenland. Especially not after I got beaten up by a bunch of them. They have their own niche for supermen.

I hate that shit to honest. Morning beers ready.

Oh my.. I spend 15 dollars on the btc today and nothing to the hoodlums. Thinking about making a rug out of MAGA. Make a bet on it on polymarkets first..

Who wants to get hit in the head with a bottle? You come telling if they cause you problems.

People trust btc when that is the only thing to trust. The only hostage you can hold sausaged.

First jail then asylum. Poor Larry.

[OsaiEmma]

But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle.

Why should "we" follow the "previous cycles"?

All theories that justify the "4 year cycle" are pseudoscience like the "Stock to Flow" concept which would get slammed if they got any scientific peer review. Miners simply don't have enough market participation (~0.1% of daily volume) to influence the price curve more than sentiment/profit taking/FOMO and real demand changes (e.g. because Bitcoin becomes a convenient payment mechanism for some groups) do.

There were also some cyclic movements even in the recent past which didn't "obey" the "rules" of the 4 year cycle (there was only one "real" 4 year cycle with all rules intact: 2013-2017).

- 2011/13 bulls: That were clearly 2 year cycles, with the bear market in 2011 only lasting a few months. (Okay, market was immature back then, but still.)
- 2013 bulls: There were two very pronounced bull and bear markets in 2013. The first one drove the price to about $260, only to dip down to 50$. And then it got as high as $1100.
- 2019 bull: Only half a year after the 2018 low, almost a x5 (3000$ up to 14000$). Without the COVID dip in early 2020 the 2017 high would probably have been surpassed much earlier.
- 2021 dip: 50% crash in the middle of a bull market. Looked a lot like 2013 actually.
- 2024 pre-halving ATH: For the first time the price reached an ATH before the halving in early 2024, debunking the "halving drives the ATH" theory.

Nevertheless I'm currently a bit bearish, but mainly because of the unstable geopolitical situation, which may bring us sub-60k prices.

This is the perfect reply to this post, I wanted to pull similar historical cycles to show it is not always a 4 years cycle between the bear and bull season, so saying what he said on following the previous cycles that is just pure speculation.

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end.

I wonder why they're saying this though, is it just mostly speculations or do they have a good, logical reason for this? If you look at the chart, what tells a bear cycle from bull is when the market is in a free fall when looking at higher time frames from monthly to yearly, not just a single red candle in monthly, but consecutive ones(forming lower low and lower highs) that goes to test a monthly support line, or demand zone, without recovering, so saying it is not a bear market now or it's about to end is just pure speculation and sentimental view.

[henry_of_skalitz]

---
So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

People are in denial because they can't accept the reality that we are in a bear market already.

They can't accept negative thoughts, but they're only thinking on the positive side of things. They aren't ready for the bear market, and they might be the ones that bought Bitcoin at the peak or at least above $100,000 hence, the mindset. Well, they can think like that, and yes this is a correction - a long-term correction that will take years before it ends.

Let those people think what they want to think. Don't stress yourself out. You're not missing something. It's just that they can't accept the reality and probably they lost a lot because of this downfall. Delusional? Might be, but I think it's more of a denial just like what you said. On one hand, maybe they're newbies who don't know how the market moves, and have no idea on the market cycles as well. They'll learn from what's happening that's for sure.

Green cannot come without the red, I agree with your whole standpoint

[Easteregg69]

Green cannot come without the red, I agree with your whole standpoint

Traffic lights. Obey or get a ticket.

Reminds me. Northkoreans work Solana. I wonder if pot is legal over there.

[john_egbert]

Traffic lights. Obey or get a ticket.

Reminds me. Northkoreans work Solana. I wonder if pot is legal over there.

You need to go and clear your AI drummies, Easter