Why are people so in denial?

[Peanutswar]

If you tried to check with the lower time frame of the bitcoin is you can see there is a movement for a bullish because of the demand but if you tried to make it zoom out at the 4H,1D and per Week of the Bitcoin is you can see that from the 120kish price we are down at the 60k so its almost 50% of the market and then you can check there is a two bearish flag pattern.

This is my technical analysis of the recent market


Note: I'm not a professional trader

If you tried to check here we are consolidating between the 94k and 84k but the buyers cant handle the previous support reason why we made another dip so now we are at the 70k again making a consolidation now if ever that we didnt break again at the top and the sellers overpowered by the sellers we have another market dip at the 50k and thats we dont want to happen.

[Mame89]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

Previous cycles does not guarantee future cycles. Times might have changed.
We did have 4 year cycles earlier but may be the cycles have changed now that institutions are in.
So we cannot predict if bear market or correction is about to end. I personally don't think we are in a bear market.
For me, it's just a correction like always and we will need to wait it out to make the maximum out of the next pump in bitcoin price.

The cycle still exists but the pattern is different. In previous bearish cycles, Bitcoin could see a 50% or even higher price drop, after which the price rebounded. However, in this cycle, the lowest correction price was at $60,000 and many predicted the price would never fall below that level. What I mean is Bitcoin decline is a common occurrence, especially after a cycle and it's unavoidable.

If they understood this, the decline wouldn't be a problem. instead, it would be a good opportunity to continue buying Bitcoin and wait for the next cycle, as each cycle creates a new ATH. Even during the war in the Middle East, Bitcoin remained above $68,000 and after a two-week ceasefire it rebounded to $72,000. So as you said, it's true that the previous cycle doesn't guarantee the same pattern will be created in the next cycle.

[pawanjain]

The cycle still exists but the pattern is different. In previous bearish cycles, Bitcoin could see a 50% or even higher price drop, after which the price rebounded. However, in this cycle, the lowest correction price was at $60,000 and many predicted the price would never fall below that level. What I mean is Bitcoin decline is a common occurrence, especially after a cycle and it's unavoidable.

If they understood this, the decline wouldn't be a problem. instead, it would be a good opportunity to continue buying Bitcoin and wait for the next cycle, as each cycle creates a new ATH. Even during the war in the Middle East, Bitcoin remained above $68,000 and after a two-week ceasefire it rebounded to $72,000. So as you said, it's true that the previous cycle doesn't guarantee the same pattern will be created in the next cycle.

The rebound was about to happen soon and it did but we will still have to break above $73k to see if this rebound will sustain or not.
I agree that the pattern is different this time and I think it's mainly because of the involvement of the institutions.
One thing to note is that, bitcoin reaches a new ATH in every bull cycle and this is a repeating pattern that one can leverage if he plays his cards well.

[TheUltraElite]

Bear cycles can get prolonged and you have to wait it out, patience is the key here.

Most traders will lack this patience and that is what stops them from being one of the top traders among the cesspool of traders out there. Those who are able to hold their nerve and continue to wait till the price rises again, they are going to emerge with profit in the long term.

So my take is, let them be in denial. Take whatever you can during the bear run and wait for the next bull run.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

Bear cycles can get prolonged and you have to wait it out, patience is the key here.

Bear market needs time to complete and recover from bottom and it seems to be longer for people who did not prepare their finance well and have need of money during bear market or people who leveraged too much and have pressure from loan interests. With investors who prepared their finance well, they will have less or almost no pressure of cashing out during a bear market and they would feel more comfortable than people belong to a first type.

Intelligent investors even see bear market is very interesting and good for their accumulation as they have good prices for entries, for DCA, and have a long tiem for doing that.

Most traders will lack this patience and that is what stops them from being one of the top traders among the cesspool of traders out there. Those who are able to hold their nerve and continue to wait till the price rises again, they are going to emerge with profit in the long term.

So my take is, let them be in denial. Take whatever you can during the bear run and wait for the next bull run.

With traders, they need quick money from trading profit, and they mostly can not hold or won't be ready for holding. While with traders who use leverages, bear market is like their nightmare as holding position longer means more loan interesting, funding interests, and there is always risk of liquidations. Such people surely dislike Bitcoin bear market especially if they long bitcoin with leverages.

[Ahli38]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

The widespread adoption of Bitcoin we’ve seen so far should signal that further adoption will follow in the next phase. And all of this will drive Bitcoin’s price higher in the next cycle. The halving cycle which occurs roughly about every four years demonstrates the strong interest among investors in holding onto their Bitcoin for the long term. And they use bearish periods to continue increasing their Bitcoin allocations to maximize profits during the upcoming bullish phase or even when Bitcoin sets a new all-time high. Take a look at what smart money does when Bitcoin experiences a decline and you’ll see that they continue to hold or even keep buying Bitcoin to increase the amount they own. And you can see that MicroStrategy as one of the major investors has been actively buying Bitcoin up to now and even this month as well (Source). So I personally think that those who is in denial cannot see Bitcoin’s future potential. And they don’t see just how significant the potential profits are that they could generate by holding Bitcoin for the long term. And I think they don’t understand that the halving has the potential to drive up Bitcoin’s price. They need to learn a lot from the history of previous halving cycles.

[Faisal2202]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

No one is delusional, actually, when ETF got approved and btc pumped so hard that it crossed $100k. It was a big thing for everyone, but still people normalize it and as usual, they start speculating for higher pumps. Some were hoping for $130k, and some for $150k to $200k. My prediction price ranged from $130k to $160k. But I was happy with $126k even.

So when BTC hit that high target, most of us like me, thought nah there is no chance that btc will dump below $50k, and so far it has not, but there were some legends who thought it can't dump below $90k, or whatever their targets were. Anyway, for me, it was $90k, when I realized we are in a bear market.

Actually, I was holding some alts, and alts bear market came earlier than BTC's, haha I know it sounds crazy but alts dumped way before BTC dumped, alts dumped around the start of 2025, and since then they have only dumped.

[Stormisover]

But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle.

I don't think I have ever witnessed any bear market that lasted for as long as a year; it doesn't last that long, maybe a year at most, aside from the 2013 bear market, which lasted for a year and 11 months from 2013 down to 2015.

If it was when Bitcoin prices had not fallen below $70k, I could have seen a reason why some don't still believe we are deeply in a bear market, but now that the market is rooming around $60k and the possibility of it even going below is also there, they should kill that mindset and accept reality. If their reason for claiming we are not yet into a bear is to convince themselves why they are not yet accumulating, they should keep on hoping.

People who refuses to accept the reality of the bear market and for that reason stop or refuses to accumulate Bitcoin while waiting for a further dip will have themselves to be blamed when they will find out that the expected bear market was in front of them earlier when Bitcoin will finally be moving up and possibly make a new all time high, it is not reasonable to claim that we are not yet in to bear market and why not just to accumulate, they can accumulate now and if the market becomes more bearish they accumulate too to avoid missed opportunities since the market moves in an unpredictable manners.

[Pandorak]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

In my opinion, people who currently believe Bitcoin is still in a bullish phase are unable to accept the losses they’ve incurred and most likely, those who bought at high prices, such as above $100k, did so not for long term investment but for trading, only to get stuck, in other words, they were forced to become investors

I believe we have now entered a bearish market phase, judging by the price structure that has formed and the rapid decline. However, there is no need to fear, this is a normal occurrence in every cycle. If you are an investor, this actually presents a great opportunity to buy at a discount to acquire more Bitcoin, provided your discretionary funds are available. In the long term, Bitcoin remains a strong asset with the potential to reach prices many times higher than its previous ATH.

[tiCeR]

...

I think actually a lot are trying to do this in this "cycle" and that was probably what triggered the downturn after October 2025. And of course, if you did time the "cycle" 2017-21 correctly modelled after the 2013-17 cycle that strategy would have yielded good returns. So these people are speculating at the cycle becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Due to which it will become a self-fulfilling fallacy - that is why I brought up the front running. As soon as the market believes there is a cycle theory at play, everyone would try to figure out how to find the earliest entry point and possibly exit point. The theory just can't ever work in the long run as not the cycle itself, but the correct timing of the cycle becomes the target, and that target will become less and less predictable as it is moving.

But already the fact that this time the downtrend began 1-2 months earlier than in the usual November/December timeframe can be a sign for that frontrunning happening. I can imagine the following outcome: We drop a bit further if there's no substantial upwards movement to the zone above 80k at least, because people will try to frontrun the "final capitulation of the cycle". But then, the bottom may be in much earlier than expected, because the capitulation already happened, and many will remember that frontrunning was a good idea - so why not to frontrun the start of the bull market? (BTW: I think however also the scenario with a bottom close to 60k is quite likely.)

Yes as I just said above. Fully agree here and as with every scheme the market tries to identify and follow, it can be thrown over not only by frontrunners trying to outcompete each other, but by events that blow up the scheme - here the cycle. Let that be war or anything else of relevance strong enough to move markets.

I guess this is what "almost" happened in 2019 - we had a very steep surge after the 2018 capitulation. Then of course a bit of profit taking in late 2019. But only COVID may have prevented a spectacular surge already in early 2020, with the peak happening near 2020's year-end.

Full transparency here, I have never fully understood the price movements right when COVID began, when it enfolded and when policies like helicopter money were implemented, aka money printing. Some people said the surge was because bitcoin is a safe haven, which I am not too convinced of, some people said it was because newly printed money was used to buy bitcoin. But who of those people who are in dire straits can use the money to invest instead of paying crucial expenses, salaries to their employees etc. It is not that I don't understand it at all, but some things remain in the dark, like always, don't they?

I have also collected some external events/news which could have triggered the "cycles" in my thread about an Alternative Cycle Theory. With the exception of Terra/Luna (which happened because the Terra/Luna system wasn't resilient enough for a bear market) the other events weren't related to any cyclist behavior, so it was merely coincidence they happened at the time they happened. For me, these events plus the "self fulfilling prophecy/frontrunning" aspect can explain the cycles alone.

I will have a closer look at it and respond there.

I remember back in the very early days the halving was a focal point because it was a technical event on the protocol level and in a way intriguing as it was interesting to see whether the protocol correctly executes without any adverse events. That is why you can see that the real price action began after the halving and not before, which in hindsight you would assume that market participants buy it up before the block reward decreases. As everything went smoothly, the price went up much more than before the halving.

The first halving indeed could have had incidence on the price, because it actually was the start of the end of the "almost free" mining era with CPUs and not-high-end GPUs when the reward dropped. In 2013/14 you already had to buy a small ASIC to really make profit. I think this indeed should have triggered the price increase because those wanting to get Bitcoin (and speculate on a price increase) would no longer be able to "just mine" and had to actually buy.

But 2016, already I think the halving influence on demand was at most a minor factor. The bull had already started half a year before after hitting the post-MtGox bottom. And after the halving the price actually went sideways for several months.

That is on point and I remember those times well when the simple man could not mine anymore. It still felt like an organic reaction of all the people in the network. Maybe even bigger miners additionally stacked up bitcoin if they could afford it, but it was still highly speculative because many buyers came into the market not knowing how quickly they would turn into sellers. They didn't know about how fast their investment could melt away over night and that contributed to volatility. Nevertheless, technically bitcoin had proven itself by the time. The idea that the blockchain just breaks apart was quite off the table. Or maybe not for everyone of course, but for many more than during the very early days.

In 2016 you could observe that there was a specific lobby still trying to spin a narrative around that block halving and its impact on the price. You could argue that the bull starting half a year before had to do with the idea of frontrunning. It wouldn't be smart to wait until a few days before the actual halving. In that sense it may still have had some impact. As I said above, by that time I think most of the price action came from the more obvious circumstances like bitcoin had proven not to break, hence more people came into the market, some of them wanted to make a quick buck, some of them got weak hands and caused selling pressure, then more and more whales entered and gave it a push and so on and so forth.

But till today the discussions around the halving and cycle theory never disappeared and it won't I think.

[Primark]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

I remember reading somewhere that Bitcoin will reach its peak in 2026. Those who don't want to accept a bear market want to hold on to the hope that the market will turn around at any time. That's why it can be said that it is a psychological reason why people don't want to accept a bear market. Again, seeing the way various media write articles, most people become overly optimistic, so no one wants to accept a bear market. And you said about following previous cycles. Why should we follow that? Does each cycle exactly repeat the previous cycle? Of course not.

[Gladitorcomeback]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

I have been seeing and observing the same thing, and I also don't understand the reason for denial so far when we can clearly see that the market is in the bearish side more than the bullish side, and this has been happening for quite sometime, probably since Bitcoin crashed below $65k, but people are still not ready to accept this and some are so optimistic that the price is going to recover and they are going to see $100k again. Some are even saying that the price won't go below $50k in the bear market this time around, but I don't believe so.

People will need to understand that we are already in the bear market, but it's only the beginning, and the market will surely go further down from here, so we need to acknowledge this and start preparing for it or for the next bull run, like start doing DCA if we had plans to do that in this bear market, or simply start saving up so that we can buy more assets when the market goes a bit lower than this.

[Gentle_Soul]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

I really can't figure out any signs that's you are missing out but I think the challenge rather is people always want what they expect to be what is seen as reality if you look deeply you will discover that some of this people you think are delusional actually have some targeted values for the price of Bitcoin and at every point in time they feel like that should be the case with the price of Bitcoin but offcourse reality will always open your eyes to to truth. It's honestly true that the price of Bitcoin has not exceeded or gotten to $100k in the past one year so that stability alone should have been able to convince them that the market is in a bear circle.

[EFS]

Just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it will definitely happen again in the future. Past movements can only serve to guide us. They don't guarantee anything. People tend to believe whatever they want to believe.

I also don't think 100k will be seen again anytime soon. But if it does happen, I wouldn't be surprised. This is Bitcoin after all. It can make moves that majority of people wouldn't expect. When you look at the bigger picture, it's almost certain that it'll go over 100k again in the long run. That's why it's best not to get too caught up in short-term movements.

[Hatchy]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

We have been in the bear cycle since December last year. Remember the crash in early December that caused a lot of panic for investors and many people actually lost their life? That was when the bear season started. For now we don't know if it's over as the market is currently giving some bullish signals and if that's true it means that the 4 years cycle has been conquered and may turn to a thing of the past or speculation rather. Sometimes its best to let the market do it's thing rather than stressing yourself over what people say online..

[PhilosopherKing]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

yes mate, you ain't missing anything, it takes a cycle that is FOUR years. Are you minding the delusional fellows, they know the bitcoin cycles but they have gotten choked up with their obsession with profit them think that bear is almost over.

Dosen't matter what you tell them they do not listen to because their mind is in another thing(profit).

People can think all the want it ain't gonna change the cycle of bitcoin, denial will make em slow to adjust.  When it is timefor bitcoin to go up it will when bull market come.

[arzuo]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

Since Bitcoin is in the trading world, you should also have an idea about about fun/fomo trade technical and fundamental analysis.
Again, it is true that Bitcoin prices increase significantly every four years, and this is mainly due to Bitcoin halving design and decreasing supply/production of Bitcoin!

[Adams0001]

Nobody loves the bear market because it puts new investors and traders into panic since the price can dip drastically. This is why some people still find it hard to believe that we are in the bear market. It's such investors that get trapped on the way because they don't want to accept facts will help them in making right decisions.

Nobody want to lose and that is why sometimes new investors are scared to invest in bitcoin some others are talking about decrease in bitcoin. If we have believe in bitcoin we shouldn't have be thinking about losing because we invest to get profit and if we didn't reach our target we won't attempt to sell your coin. I can says that we're on bear market that is why bitcoin price don't like to move well and and the price is dropping gradually and that is and advantage for some new investors to start to invest for long term so that any time the halving start they can get a better profit. If you continue thinking to invest or not you will jut be wasting your opportunity you get to invest because bitcoin is volatile and we don't know when the price will start pumping.

[DiMarxist]

The Bear market is still on as far as am concerned, the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating Since late last year. For now we are still far from the Bull cycle it will take time before we can be talking about the Bull. When it's comes to predicting the price of Bitcoin that is one thing that people can't accurately tell, so for now everyone should just tell them the truth that we are still in the Bear market and the Bull run is still far because the price of Bitcoin is not stable.

[Cookdata]

Bitcoin has recorded below $100k since last year. Until now, bitcoin did not seem too close to reaching $100k or beyond that but you will still see people asking "Is this really the bear cycle already?" or "Is this just a correction?". I have also seen a literal article talking about how the bear cycle is about to end. But if we should follow the previous cycles, we would see that it takes at least 4 years for the market to get out of the bear cycle. So why are people still in denial that we are in bear cycle right now and we all just have to go through it before we see yet another massive profit taking opportunity? Am I missing some signs that make people so delusional?

There is new money in every Bitcoin bull run, we have people that bought Bitcoin during this bull run, some bought at all time but Bitcoin dump which is there first experience. They are stuck in between and are not experienced, that's why I'm not surprised when I see questions repeatedly asked. Go to reddit and join Bitcoin beginners subredit, some questions are funny but to the OP they are not funny, they are new to the system.

Although, some people are trolls, they ask questions for engagements. Some of these infkeucners ask nonsense questions to farm engagement and then get pay at the end of 2 weeks. If I see dumb question from influencers repeating the same thing and useless chart, I don't bother to reply them, we have many of them on X. Like last week, it was about quantum computers, I was tired of things some people were asking, they can't even differentiate between exposed public keys and addresses that has never spent before.