We are heading to recession

[bubilas]

Since the Iran-US war started, it has really affected the oil market badly, and this war is affecting all countries. It seems the war won't be ending anytime soon. People should keep this in mind: this war can lead to a recession. We shouldn't be too relaxed and think it will be over, but what if it lasts for a long time and a recession takes place?

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

Yes, I've heard a hundred times that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens right now, there will still be a fuel crisis, because the usual chain of oil supplies has been disrupted, and as far as I know, Europe and China are the most affected. However, Russia is currently enjoying incredible oil revenues, as demand has increased significantly and prices have skyrocketed. As far as I know, the US economy has not been significantly affected, and Trump, who claimed victory, has already retreated thirty times without sending troops. I placed a bet on the Polymarket and managed to make a good profit on it.

[imthegreat]

Since the Iran-US war started, it has really affected the oil market badly, and this war is affecting all countries. It seems the war won't be ending anytime soon. People should keep this in mind: this war can lead to a recession. We shouldn't be too relaxed and think it will be over, but what if it lasts for a long time and a recession takes place?

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

Yes, I've heard a hundred times that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens right now, there will still be a fuel crisis, because the usual chain of oil supplies has been disrupted, and as far as I know, Europe and China are the most affected. However, Russia is currently enjoying incredible oil revenues, as demand has increased significantly and prices have skyrocketed. As far as I know, the US economy has not been significantly affected, and Trump, who claimed victory, has already retreated thirty times without sending troops. I placed a bet on the Polymarket and managed to make a good profit on it.

Every time oil prices rose 50% above the trend, it led to a recession. We have just reached this threshold again. In fact, I recently heard an important reminder about global maritime transportation: shipping in the Red Sea has not yet recovered from the actions of the Houthis during the Gaza War. Therefore, even if the Strait of Hormuz is "open," it does not mean that companies will be willing to use it.
But! The Strait of Hormuz has just made Bitcoin more understandable. A $1 per barrel levy on pre-war shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would generate about $20 million per day. At current prices, this equates to about 281 BTC. Bitcoin produces only 450 new BTC per day. If the US can freeze stablecoins, then neutral settlements become important.
Bitcoin is an obvious candidate. Thus, a single geopolitical bottleneck could theoretically absorb about 62% of the total new Bitcoin supply.
The shortage is becoming increasingly important as the world becomes more fragmented.

[Iranus]

Yes, I've heard a hundred times that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens right now, there will still be a fuel crisis, because the usual chain of oil supplies has been disrupted, and as far as I know, Europe and China are the most affected. However, Russia is currently enjoying incredible oil revenues, as demand has increased significantly and prices have skyrocketed. As far as I know, the US economy has not been significantly affected, and Trump, who claimed victory, has already retreated thirty times without sending troops. I placed a bet on the Polymarket and managed to make a good profit on it.

The US is the largest importer of goods and the largest consumer market. Is it correct to say that they were not significantly affected?

For example, they import most of their products from China, and when the supply chain is disrupted and exporters raise product prices due to high oil prices. The US will certainly be directly affected, and with prices rising and goods becoming scarce. This will put pressure on their economy.

The oil crisis is affecting the entire globe.

[RumorCipher]

simple. sising oil prices can hurt a lot of countries, especially those that rely on imports, that’s usually one of the early signs of economic pressure.

[batang_bitcoin]

simple. sising oil prices can hurt a lot of countries, especially those that rely on imports, that’s usually one of the early signs of economic pressure.

Majority of the countries on this globe relies on oil and that's why it will give a big hit to all of them. Those countries that only depends on imported oils will sure to take the inflation quite high. And when this pressure economically happens, it's going to give a pain to most citizens that don't have any plan on how they're going to battle this situation. Those who have one job needs to think of starting having more jobs like 2-3 more. But I am looking forward that every recession that comes, there will be an end for it.

[khiholangkang]

We are already in the pause stage of the war with a ceasefire if I'm not mistaken for two weeks this gives a little breath for diplomacy so that everything can be resolved if the two countries, especially the US and Iran can agree on the peace they must do so that the conflict does not last too long and causes energy paralysis in many countries that must be considered, otherwise all this will make us chaotic, if it continues then the energy crisis may occur in many countries and can trigger a recession.

[alastantiger]

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

It is very difficult to prepare for recession very well because you can never know how long the recession is going to last, war is never something we want to happen because war has many negative impact to both the market and to the country progress, the economy of a country is going to die when there is war and with the economy decreasing that will make the cost of living to increase and it does not matter how much you have tried to save sometimes it is never enough because the price of things can increase that you run out of money and won't be able to afford basic needs.

I am very prepared for the recession if it was to happen but I don't think I have to hold Bitcoin or other volatile investment for the recession because what is most important right now is to hold cash as cash is what is going to be very hard to get during a recession as investments can rise and fall at any time but if you have cash then you have purchasing power that can hold you during the recession.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

We are already in the pause stage of the war with a ceasefire if I'm not mistaken for two weeks this gives a little breath for diplomacy so that everything can be resolved if the two countries, especially the US and Iran can agree on the peace they must do so that the conflict does not last too long and causes energy paralysis in many countries that must be considered, otherwise all this will make us chaotic, if it continues then the energy crisis may occur in many countries and can trigger a recession.

Not sure about it, it looks like the bombing has resume between Israel and Lebanon, and that the straight of Hormuz is close again after being reported that there is a ceasefire. So it's really hard to see how the war turns out to be after oil.

Every country is suffering now, and so with that Trump looks or the US looks the loser as they don't have the aces here, it's all about the oil and control of straight of Hormuz. If Iran closes it again then no oil tanker can pass without them bombing it hard.

[Miles2006]

Issues like this are raised often like what exactly do you expect during this period? If not for poor economy then there’s absolutely no negative effect aside war related cost. Countries already facing poor economy for a long time probably this will make things even worst, I believe much attention is not given to this and if care is not taken things might get out of control probably things are already out of control because where exactly is the war heading, seems the war will not stop sooner for a fact the hike of oil is majorly the serious issue now.

[LOVER BOY 422]

Since the Iran-US war started, it has really affected the oil market badly, and this war is affecting all countries. It seems the war won't be ending anytime soon. People should keep this in mind: this war can lead to a recession. We shouldn't be too relaxed and think it will be over, but what if it lasts for a long time and a recession takes place?

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

While what will be must definitely be no matter what, but what we all pray so that the fight will not lead to recession because people will really suffer and some will die too , because they are never prepared before it came , even if you said you want to prepare your self,  war might not even happen as that time , many countries war came unexpectedly so it will kill many render some useless and homeless but this will not be our portion, they will all resolve in good faith , the price of fuel is going down because many people in Iran smogling fuel to Nigeria are the one helping us here , others refused to buy with the high rate , but with the help of how they smogle fuel to  Nigeria but this their smogling is inlegal the Iran government never like it , left with him  he want fuel to scares so that people will suffer and beg for it , but the essence of inlegal way that Nigerian are benefiting.

[yhiaali3]

The world is paying a heavy price for the folly of some world leaders such as Trump, Netanyahu, and the Iranian leadership. If Netanyahu's motive for the war is that he fears Iran and believes it poses a threat to Israel, then I don't know what Trump's motive is and why he followed Netanyahu into this war and embroiled his country and the world in a crisis that has nothing to do with them?

In any case, we must be prepared for the worst because the negative effects of the war have not ended yet, and the conflict and the negative effects may extend for a long period of time, whether it be economic recession, inflation, high prices, rising energy prices, etc. We must prepare ourselves and try to adapt to this situation by diversifying sources of income, reducing expenses, and saving.

[m2017]

Since the Iran-US war started, it has really affected the oil market badly, and this war is affecting all countries. It seems the war won't be ending anytime soon. People should keep this in mind: this war can lead to a recession. We shouldn't be too relaxed and think it will be over, but what if it lasts for a long time and a recession takes place?

There's been talk for a long time about a possible recession or even a global economic crisis. But as you can see, humanity is managing to delay this moment.

The Iran-US conflict isn't the trigger for a recession. The cause, after all, lies in the global economic model itself.

Indeed, the conflict could last indefinitely, and a recession could emerge at any moment.

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

For example, taking the US as a benchmark for a strong economy (especially given the current conflict with Iran), according to data for 2024-2025, 40-55% of Americans have savings ($1,000 or more). This means that almost half of Americans have no savings at all. In other countries, the situation is even worse, and it's becoming clear that most people are not prepared for a recession at all.

[r_victory]

However bad the situation is regarding oil, I don't believe that's what will cause a recession. The negative economic impact is significant, for sure; there's no denying that, but many more events are happening; the world economy was already being shaken long before the recent wars.

[Akbarkoe]

Since the Iran-US war started, it has really affected the oil market badly, and this war is affecting all countries. It seems the war won't be ending anytime soon. People should keep this in mind: this war can lead to a recession. We shouldn't be too relaxed and think it will be over, but what if it lasts for a long time and a recession takes place?

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

I was well prepared, owning BTC, owning gold and having enough land for me to farm and raise livestock in a recession that would make food expensive.
The recession period is usually very difficult to spend because there is inflation and so on which is the economic problem of most people, energy is getting more expensive and causes the economy to be out of control.
 
The solution is to survive with what you have, and that's enough.
 
But on the other hand, recessions create opportunities for other people too and you can get rich during a recession if you are smart enough to take advantage of people's worries and business opportunities at such times.

[Asuspawer09]

I was thinking the same thing, market doesn't feel much of the impact of the war so it is possible that eventually it is going to break it's foundation or supports falling down on a much lower market price that the market is on right now, It happened a lot of times in the past that is why I don't really invest a huge amount on the crypto I just go with the flow and Dollar Cost Averaging funds to build my portfolio and possition again in the market, it was the best approach in my opinion minimizing my risk of investment.

There was news here in my country where they are saying that it is possible that the war could last for years, and even if the war stops, the gas prices are not going to recover, and it is going to be stuck in the high price range. Meaning that this war could have long-term effects in the market, possibly in the crypto market as well, so I guess it is still a good thing to always diversify and do not put a huge lot in one investment. It is possible for the market to still drop in my opinion, even though we already see the drop from 126k$. It's better to avoid high volume buys for now and stick to consistent low volume buys, and accumulate to position in the market long term.

[LogitechMouse]

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How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

The longer the war, the higher the chances that a global recession might happen, and TBH it will be the first time that I will be experiencing it (I'll exclude the 2008 global recession because I'm not into investing at that time).

I did a quick search, and there are things that we can do to prepare if we will enter in a global recession.
1. Have an emergency Funds.
2. Adjust budget and reduce expenses/costs
3. Seek another source of income/gig if there's an opportunity.
4. Invest into safer assets.

I don't know what it feels to be in a global recession so I have no idea what to do whatsoever, but I already have emergency funds that will help us just in case worse comes to worse. With what's happening right now, there's a chance that it will happen UNLESS we will be seeing an end to this war at least this month and both parties will have an agreement.

[SamReomo]

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

That's a tough question to answer because majority of us don't even have a proper plan for any recessions but surely in such war situations where world is affected because of the strait of Hormuz restrictions then it's smart to consider cutting extra expenses to save some money for the tough times.

Since, most Bitcoin investors will be on safe end because they could sell some of their holding in dire need and thus such recession might not impact their lives to much extent but others who've not prepare for the hard times will face financial issues during such times.

[free-bit.co.in]

However bad the situation is regarding oil, I don't believe that's what will cause a recession. The negative economic impact is significant, for sure; there's no denying that, but many more events are happening; the world economy was already being shaken long before the recent wars.

Exactly. The economy will not easily fall into recession just because of a 20% shortfall in oil supply. The oil shortage is a significant problem, but not serious enough to trigger a global economic recession.

Economic recession is the result of many overlapping instabilities, and if a recession occurs. That would be the consequence of inflation and interest rates remaining too high for too long, coupled with a decline in consumer confidence...The oil shortage was merely a catalyst that made thing worse.

If I remember correctly, experts warned that the economy could fall into recession as early as 2022 as inflation peaked and Fed raised interest rates. Our economy has been unstable since the COVID outbreak, not just recently.

[Olatundespo]

Since the Iran-US war started, it has really affected the oil market badly, and this war is affecting all countries. It seems the war won't be ending anytime soon. People should keep this in mind: this war can lead to a recession. We shouldn't be too relaxed and think it will be over, but what if it lasts for a long time and a recession takes place?

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

There was a concerted effort to reach a ceasefire in the literal sense, but that too is unlikely to succeed. Iranian and US representatives tried to reach a ceasefire agreement with Pakistan as mediator, but the effort collapsed without any solution. Israel is not agreeing to a ceasefire and has vowed to continue the attacks. US Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan before the talks reached any reasonable stage.

It is being reported through various media outlets that the ceasefire talks may continue for a long time. Even if they fail to reach an agreement on some technical points, Iran is unlikely to back down from its nuclear ambitions.

If the global economic pressure that has been mounting since the start of the war continues, the world must be prepared for more difficult times ahead and continue diplomatic efforts to end the war.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

Since the Iran-US war started, it has really affected the oil market badly, and this war is affecting all countries. It seems the war won't be ending anytime soon. People should keep this in mind: this war can lead to a recession. We shouldn't be too relaxed and think it will be over, but what if it lasts for a long time and a recession takes place?

How prepared are you to go through this hard time? Recessions are always tough, but people who prepare for them don't really feel the impact as much.

Even if the war ends, the recovery won't happen quickly because it requires a strong impetus for stable economic growth. People's readiness for a recession depends on how well they prepare and if preparations aren't made well in advance, the impact will be far greater. When a recession hits prices of goods especially basic necessities, rise uncontrollably and this is where the problem lies potentially much bigger as it's about fulfilling one's livelihood.

The energy sector has been significantly impacted by the current war, although the effects could spread to other sectors. As is the case with some groups of people who may be better off than others, they still feel significant impacts under the current conditions, based on the war that occurred and other conditions that are much more complex.