Can data models really beat sportsbook odds?

[Questat]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

[Cointxz]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Not the sportsbook rather the odds provider track all the quickly to find players that involves on “value betting” to restrict/ban him immediately especially if has records of doing it on other casino that use the same odds provider.

There’s no way a sportsbook will allowed a consistent winner using a method that gives an edge against them.

It’s risky to use this method assuming it’s true because you will have a record that will affect your different casino account.

[rdluffy]

Do you have any examples of betting models available?
I’d like to see how it works

A system like this for analyzing bets can really help bettors find good opportunities or confirm the bets they’re placing, but I think it’s difficult for bettors to beat the house in the long run.

[Russlenat]

There’s no way a sportsbook will allowed a consistent winner using a method that gives an edge against them.

You’ll never know. Even if someone really has a winning method or system, they still have to make sure they don’t get detected by the sportsbook. One way is by creating multiple accounts across different sportsbooks and placing bets there, so they won’t look suspicious. As a result, some bets win and some lose, and the sportsbook still makes money from the juice, so it’s not really a concern for them if some people are winning, as long as everything stays balanced.

[Bitcoin Smith]

Data models? Like an analyst who claims that they can find the value bets?

It is possible that they can find bets that are having misplaced odds but it is not very common and doesn't happen very often. Also if you managed to find them most likely the sportsbook can always void the bets if there is huge difference in the actual and reported odds.

There is no way to beat the system, it is solid though.

[Charles-Tim]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I do not think I know what you are taking about but I know that sportbooks are very fast to update their live matches and also matches they have not been started. That is the reason you will see the odds changing while also you will see the betting site immediately lock the bet when something like injury, or someone to receive a red card want to occur. Just do not think anything will help you against the bookies, they know what is happening in the matches few seconds than people that are betting. Anything that is letting you think they can guarantee you winning just want to take money from you.

[Cointxz]

There’s no way a sportsbook will allowed a consistent winner using a method that gives an edge against them.

You’ll never know. Even if someone really has a winning method or system, they still have to make sure they don’t get detected by the sportsbook. One way is by creating multiple accounts across different sportsbooks and placing bets there, so they won’t look suspicious. As a result, some bets win and some lose, and the sportsbook still makes money from the juice, so it’s not really a concern for them if some people are winning, as long as everything stays balanced.

I specifically mentioned on the omitted part about different sportsbook that use same odds provider. I think different odds provider is what you meant and I agree on this.

But since there’s only limited odds provider available on crypto casino which mostly use betsby I think their choices will be limited on spreading their account.

Most of the scam accusation related on sports betting usually from value betting or arbitrage betting which odds provider is very strict on finding.

[Hispo]

I don't think those models are actually profitable in the way they advertise themselves, to be honest.
Besides, casinos with a high liquidity and volume invest much money on being able to quickly react to any change in odds, so their markets cannot be easily abused in the way you describe.

In order for it to work,.it would require to exploit a casino or bookie with a serious lagging on their markets and use those tools you mention to find the better chances, but I would not count on those services alone to make money.

If they could make money on their own, they would not need to advertise themselves and find clients. Don't you think?

[Ziskinberg]

If they could make money on their own, they would not need to advertise themselves and find clients. Don't you think?

There was a topic posted here before by one of the members, and I actually believed what he said.

The point of that post was that there really are people who sell subscriptions and give winning tips, but it’s not cheap at all. So what we’re seeing now, especially those selling in Telegram or random groups, are probably just scams. Most of them just show fake records to attract desperate sports bettors.

That’s why in this kind of space, if it’s cheap, you really have to doubt it. Same goes when choosing a tipster.

[adultcrypto]

I have heard stories of people who make their predictions using the odds and according to them, they monitor underpriced and overpriced odds and used them to arrive at their decision. I don't know how effective this method is as I don't see the feasibility of achieving consistency through that method. But I do know that a process can be coded to monitor this and give firsthand signal to those who use them in gambling. I stick to my prediction pattern which is manual and based on facts and latest information I know about the teams. 

[freedomgo]

They can, but only a few probably have a model that actually works, and honestly I haven’t seen anyone publicly claim they have one and truly prove it.

Because if someone really had a system that was unbeatable, bookies would get wrecked fast. That’s just simple logic to me.

But I do believe there are people who are genuinely profitable, not because they never lose, but because their system still works over the long run. They still have bad days, maybe even bad months, but overall they stay ahead.

For now though, that’s still just something I hear about. It would be nice to experience it firsthand. If someone gave a free one-month trial and it actually worked and I ended up winning, then I’d probably be willing to pay for the subscription.

[BABY SHOES]

What data model are you referring to? I haven't found the data model you're referring to except what I use is a kind of statistical site and ask the AI for faster information about players, that's the only data we often use.S

Sportsbook providers I think are faster than other data, they can adjust the odds offered, such as today's odds 1.7 with tomorrow's match when there is a change where an important player is absent then the bookies will change the odds up or down depending on which situation is favorable.

I don't know if there is a data model that can be profitable in the long run... because I have never found this kind of data, except for free data found on the internet.

[Beparanf]

I’m interested to know what model is this since I know for sure there’s truly a working tools to find value betting opportunities considering a lot of topic related to this matter on reddit sportsbook community.

I only heard this but I don’t knew someone using it personally and manage to consistently win on the casino using the method.

How can they possible calculate the true winning percentage of the match in contrary to the odds which sportsbook offer.

[bitbollo]

its a real interesting question and the correct answer would be yes if you just focus in a specific niche/market.
but any problems would arise.  betting patterns would lead to be excluded by most if not all bookmakers.
Exchanges that allow players will take a massive percentage... hence any model requires data & efforts to be kept alive.
Here there is the "limit" that allow sportsbook to be consistent in the long term.

[justinlamode]

This system will at best work like those AI used by some bettors for their prediction. Their job is always limited to making all data available for the bettor to enable them take the final decision either to proceed or not, I don't think there is a system that perfectly preduct the outcome of sporting events that depend on a lot of parameters, most of which are not even known prior to the event. Like others said, I would love to see example of such models to see how it works.

[teddybear]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

How are you getting the info about the injury though? Also, each injury is nuanced, depending on the sport. For example, A left hand injury to a right handed table tennis player, isn't much of an issue. Sportsbooks have a fairly strong research and data analysis behind them. It's not impossible to beat but players are at a disadvantage from the beginning. Only time place where I've seen sportsbooks be underpriced or overpriced regularly, is when there are roaster/line up changes being made in team sports at the last minute.

I am not aware of any AI sports predictor that has high prediction rate. Feel free to let me know if you've found any that has given high yields.

[joeperry]

If there's a model like that exist it is also possible that a big company like odds provider would get on hold to that first considering how much resources they have and I think they wouldn't hesitate to invest to something like that, there' might be some models that can do that but I'm pretty sure sportsbooks and their providers are catching up too since it could destroy their business and I don't think they would want that. Though honestly, I didn't think something like that exist, if you don't mind sharing, can you give us the name of those platforms that offers that kind of service?

[swogerino]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Sport bookies are also reacting that fast and because of LLM and ML. I doubt that these data sets for different models based on news and history can overcome easily these machine learning that most likely now are put in place to good use by sport bookies. As an example Oracle just laid off 30000 employees, some of them highly capable because Oracle wants to invest in AI datacenters. I am sure sport bookies are trying the same though not by aggressive layoffs.

[Questat]

How are you getting the info about the injury though? Also, each injury is nuanced, depending on the sport. For example, A left hand injury to a right handed table tennis player, isn't much of an issue. Sportsbooks have a fairly strong research and data analysis behind them. It's not impossible to beat but players are at a disadvantage from the beginning. Only time place where I've seen sportsbooks be underpriced or overpriced regularly, is when there are roaster/line up changes being made in team sports at the last minute.

I am not aware of any AI sports predictor that has high prediction rate. Feel free to let me know if you've found any that has given high yields.

That’s why insider information can really matter. It’s probably part of a working system that helps make someone profitable.

In most sports, there are also rules about disclosing injuries, otherwise teams can get penalized. But what I’m saying is, if an injury happens during the game, bookies usually don’t react that fast. People with insider info can take advantage of that right away, so that could easily be part of a working system.

And honestly, there’s probably more to it than that. That’s likely one reason some of these systems work, but at the end of the day we can only speculate since we’ve never really experienced it ourselves.

[cryptoaddictchie]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Im not sure models can really beat the odds and stats from live gaming or potential bets. Im not sure if this even live or active or anyone able to make a model for sports betting but like others mentioned would definitely wanted to look for sample of this.

I had a project supported on altcoin that uses sdk maybe I could input potential data from sports bets and see if they can pull off a model for this method and see if it works.