Can data models really beat sportsbook odds?

[nimogsm]

This system will at best work like those AI used by some bettors for their prediction. Their job is always limited to making all data available for the bettor to enable them take the final decision either to proceed or not, I don't think there is a system that perfectly preduct the outcome of sporting events that depend on a lot of parameters, most of which are not even known prior to the event. Like others said, I would love to see example of such models to see how it works.

This isn't really about forecasting, but rather about analysts catching an event at a bookmaker that they haven't yet noticed but other bookmakers have. However, the real risk is that the bookmaker might become suspicious and check your account if they realize you placed a very suspicious bet just moments before the event. This system also has its downsides: you need to deposit on multiple sites, and the risk may not justify the investment.

[Alex077]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.
But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?...

Good question, but in this case it really comes down to the quality of the model and how fast it reacts.
These days bookmakers react really fast- odds shift almost instantly, so basic models just can’t keep up and don’t offer much of an edge anymore, it’s not gone, just harder to catch. The key thing is the combination: model, manual analysis and discipline.
So yeah, the edge is still there, but it’s no longer obvious and takes a lot more effort to find.

[Wakate]

This system will at best work like those AI used by some bettors for their prediction. Their job is always limited to making all data available for the bettor to enable them take the final decision either to proceed or not, I don't think there is a system that perfectly preduct the outcome of sporting events that depend on a lot of parameters, most of which are not even known prior to the event. Like others said, I would love to see example of such models to see how it works.

This isn't really about forecasting, but rather about analysts catching an event at a bookmaker that they haven't yet noticed but other bookmakers have. However, the real risk is that the bookmaker might become suspicious and check your account if they realize you placed a very suspicious bet just moments before the event. This system also has its downsides: you need to deposit on multiple sites, and the risk may not justify the investment.

This kind of model of gambling will be quite suspicious to the casino if their are too many players that are using it to make money from a casino. Whether it is a strategy or model, it will surely cast and casino you are using it on to make money will surely catch you and either void your bet or ban you especially when you have made so much money from them.

[sompitonov]

This kind of model of gambling will be quite suspicious to the casino if their are too many players that are using it to make money from a casino. Whether it is a strategy or model, it will surely cast and casino you are using it on to make money will surely catch you and either void your bet or ban you especially when you have made so much money from them.

The faster an account makes a lot of money, the sooner it will be noticed on this gambling platform, as it raises suspicion from the security department. Gambling businesses don't like it when there are too many winning players, as this directly impacts the business's profits, and the business can't survive large losses. In any case, I don't plan to use any models for the game; I'll place my regular sports bets manually, as I have before, and maybe I'll get lucky.

[leea-1334]

I got news for you,,, sportsbooks are already buying up and using these data Or rather, data companies are now selling their models and software and sportsbooks do not even have their own proprietary software anymore.

And the other news is, if you find a way, the sportsbooks closes you down for 'value betting'. Read the forum now it is all over the place

[danherbias07]

I do know that online sports bookies are very fast to update the odds now. There was a time I made a bet for props for an NBA player (Jokic), and suddenly I saw a green on my bet slip, which means I will be able to cash it out with some profits even if the game has not started yet. I was just too early to place that bet, but they suddenly changed it in just minutes before the game started.
In live betting, they are faster. It's difficult to win against the system while it is on play, plus there's a 1-second delay on every live game, or maybe more than just a second. Your bet will just keep on failing during live games until a long delay happens and the ball ain't moving.

Maybe in the old days it could beat them, but I doubt it can now.

[HONDACD125]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I'd say it's not worth it, and I'll explain why. If we think that a sportsbook might not be as fast as a data model to detect if there has been something that can make a team or a side lose a certain percentage of their probability to win, it could be an injury of an important player or anything, we need to know that the data model also finds that information from somewhere, they definitely don't have people or spies on the inside that gives them these hints, and they get to know either from news or social media. So, can't a person actually do that themselves if they are actually so into sports betting?

What I'm trying to say is that someone who is into sports betting and they are really serious about it, they should know sources where news and stuff can get either leaked or posted very early, so that they can evaluate those news and then make their bets accordingly if the news can actually affect the result of the game they are about to make a bet on. If a data model can do that, anyone should be able to do that as well unless the data models have insider information as I mentioned earlier, and I don't think that's the case.

[Dunamisx]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long-term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

If they are capable of making profit over a long time, then we should probably consider them being the first beneficiary to this opportunity than how they could see other gamblers benefit from them, there is no consistency in what they can deliver, I'm not saying they can't try their best to be closer to winning or getting it right, but their chances of being frequent in what they do and getting the right thing done is not guaranteed, that is why many will tell you that it is more easier to lose in gambling than to win, this remains the constant we cannot change as long as gambling is concerned.

[Fortify]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Well, data models and analysis are all that bookmakers are using to come up with odds, so theoretically if you can train yours better than theirs to extract decent value, then yes - you could beat them. However sportbooks are not stupid and the ones that survive have been using this technology (or rather, their odds providers have) for a long time now. They have some very clever people trying to optimize their models all the time and they have all the premium resources that you might expect a lot of money to buy. That does not make them impervious to cheaper, dynamic and adhoc constructions that players may be able to put together or very targeted odds analysis that might prove profitable. In fact it's probably one place where players and bookmakers have a battle where players might be able to win for a while at least.

[Odohu]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I have not heard about these models before and I would have loved more information from you regarding these models, how they work and possibly their level of accuracy rather than this vague post. When the hype of AI in gambling came in, their proponents were able to give much details that helped people understand that AI was not perfect but helps with detailed information about the event to help the gambler make the final decision. There was also a time someone referenced some mathematical processes that integrate neural networks in making prediction, that died a natural death when he was unable to prove anything.  I hope this data model will not end up like those.

[Gozie51]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

There is possibility for that. In online business, everyone is smart and trying to outsmart others to the extent that if you make a business mistake by giving out low price, you will immediately be punished for that with huge patronage  . So sportsbooks are going to be very careful not to give themselves out easily because they know one error will run into huge loss. So they will protect themselves and ensure that no advantage is given to bettors and that their possibility with house edge is higher than the proportion of customer's winning rate.

[Findingnemo]

Sportsbookies have evolved a lot with the technology and the lines move almost instanly which could be anything that affect odds so finding the value betting with such an advanced system is hard though.

SO the data experts or models that you put them that way are not much of any use now, unless they got some internal connections and get their hands on some news like injury updates or something that isn't public yet which allows them to utlize to their benefits but as I said it is rare, especially in big leagues.

[Cryptomultiplier]

Sportsbookies have evolved a lot with the technology and the lines move almost instanly which could be anything that affect odds so finding the value betting with such an advanced system is hard though.

SO the data experts or models that you put them that way are not much of any use now, unless they got some internal connections and get their hands on some news like injury updates or something that isn't public yet which allows them to utlize to their benefits but as I said it is rare, especially in big leagues.

I agree about the evolution of sportsbook so far, because the integration of AI bots and good developers, help these sportsbook gambling platforms to always have the edge over the bettor despite the the kind of support apps and data models they employ to be more efficient.

It's more or less about these models beating the price than beating the clock to be sincere, and these models is supposed to act as a tool to help a gambler make a better informed decision than just wild guesses or based on old data, and not an assurance for a successful endeavor with ones gambling activities.

[Agbamoni]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

There is no way a casino will allow a player to use a particular pattern to win frequently on their platform. Soon, they will figure out and impose restrictions on the gambler.

Unfortunately, I have not used any model, nor do I know about a model that is reliable. One I have heard of is about a model who detect a goal faster, which lets you bet on casinos before the goal is detected by the casino.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

The answer is no, it can not beat sportsbook, if it could beat sportsbook, it would have done that over and over again but that's not even all. What made me say it can not beat sportsbook is because the sportsbook owners are not dumb, though they could also make mistakes and not update the odd accordingly but they don't make this mistakes every day else they will also run into so much lose, that's why they are usually very careful and do make sure they don't make such mistakes.

[EluguHcman]

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I consider all these necessary for my gambling because my friends who relied on the third parties supplying of games and at the end of the game they still fails like others who casually betted with their personal prediction.

However, if the model can actually trap the bookie to take advantage that is also good but the truth is that... I will never uses the Bot for my gambling because the failed confidence when you trusted any of those claimed tools for prediction can be more disappointing than the experience of relying on oneself.

[SamReomo]

The faster an account makes a lot of money, the sooner it will be noticed on this gambling platform, as it raises suspicion from the security department. Gambling businesses don't like it when there are too many winning players, as this directly impacts the business's profits, and the business can't survive large losses. In any case, I don't plan to use any models for the game; I'll place my regular sports bets manually, as I have before, and maybe I'll get lucky.

I don't know if such data models are available to public if yes then I'm pretty sure that most casinos or sportsbook providers should have an eye on such platforms and there's chance they might catch the players that use such models to have edge over the casinos. I believe no casino will allow such a thing, they'll most probably ban such players who rely on those models, but surely if someone who uses such models isn't going to use those without precautions and thus it won't be easy for casinos to find such players easily.

[Davidvictorson]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I like to think that casinos are two times ahead of folks who think they can program a model to beat them. There are systems that are already in place to monitor any abnormalities and would flag and block it as soon as it detects it. And if it already happening then that player is really a professional at it. But I doubt it is ever happening.

[AmoreJaz]

The faster an account makes a lot of money, the sooner it will be noticed on this gambling platform, as it raises suspicion from the security department. Gambling businesses don't like it when there are too many winning players, as this directly impacts the business's profits, and the business can't survive large losses. In any case, I don't plan to use any models for the game; I'll place my regular sports bets manually, as I have before, and maybe I'll get lucky.

I don't know if such data models are available to public if yes then I'm pretty sure that most casinos or sportsbook providers should have an eye on such platforms and there's chance they might catch the players that use such models to have edge over the casinos. I believe no casino will allow such a thing, they'll most probably ban such players who rely on those models, but surely if someone who uses such models isn't going to use those without precautions and thus it won't be easy for casinos to find such players easily.

Definitely, because it is their business that will be in jeopardy in case this can really give good results to bettors. I don't think they will just sit down and let the potential threat wiped out their vault. But for now, we don't know the capability of these models. For sure, hackers are trying hard to penetrate sites with possible money in the vaults. And one is of course, the casinos and bookies because they are collecting bets.

[Darker45]

The more comprehensive your data models are, the bigger must your chance be of being profitable, although it isn't a guarantee of course. But you aren't only racing against the sportsbook, you're also racing against other bettors. Surely, you aren't the only bettor who'd notice and would want to take advantage of a certain value bet. The odds might change shortly because of the surge of bets.

Ultimately, however, having that edge by chasing value bets might not fare well in the long run. You can't easily beat the sportsbook because they can even invalidate your wins because they're on erroneous odds. They could even kick you out for being good at finding value bets.