Bitcoin expectations by 2030.

[BitJannik]

I think lower returns are normal now because bitcoin is already much bigger than before. In the early years it was easier for price to multiply fast, bit now it takes a lot more money to push it higher. So even if 126k felt lower than some people expected, it s still a strong cycle top compared to past prices. Each cycle may give smaller percentage gains, but the price level keeps moving higher. For 2029, 200k looks possible if the cycle continues normally. 300k can happen too, but that would need much stronger buying pressure and a vert strong market overall.

[FortuneFollower]

I think lower returns are normal now because bitcoin is already much bigger than before. In the early years it was easier for price to multiply fast, bit now it takes a lot more money to push it higher. So even if 126k felt lower than some people expected, it s still a strong cycle top compared to past prices. Each cycle may give smaller percentage gains, but the price level keeps moving higher. For 2029, 200k looks possible if the cycle continues normally. 300k can happen too, but that would need much stronger buying pressure and a vert strong market overall.

The main thing is the adoption vector every party endorsed to some degree during this cycle.

It's the driver for the future ATHes in any of the cases, or geopolitical events

[Rustam Meraj]

Many factors could be at play and overall it might not go as predicted and given the current conditions, anything could happen in Bitcoin's future journey. What kind of stuck are you referring to? Is it related to price or its trajectory? Market capitalization and adoption could be factors, although overall other conditions could also influence it, as there are many factors at play.

Looking at previous cycles, perhaps the next ATH that's somewhat relevant is at $300,000. Whether $500,000 is a possibility, no one knows for sure. But looking at Bitcoin's history, I think $300,000 is the price it needs to reach first, so that further increases can occur in an undetermined time because we are talking about speculation on assets that are quite volatile.

I agree with fact that stuck feeling is result of change between small traders to large countries and funds buying in that make price more steady yet slow to rise as compared to before. And future is never sure, but nowadays we can predict shortages in supply much more effectively than by just guessing, using new tools such as on chain numbers.

I think trip to $300,000 should be obligatory stop to help trust needed, after which no one will be able to even think of going further to $500,000. You are correct in focusing on this goal as Bitcoin must fight to find strong floor at these high levels to change risky dreams into reality in market.

[Somegory]

I don't know much about politics but is it possible that Trump will still be the president in 2030? If he wouldn't then let's hope that a crypto friendly president will take over because it matters..

Also the future price action depends on institutions buying heavily, sorry to say this but I believe that things have changed unlike the past, institutions have played a bigger role in Bitcoin adoptions this days.

I hated this fact because I wanted Bitcoin to do it's thing without them, unfortunately that's not the case any longer, no one knows what will happen tomorrow, we all just gotta keep hoping for the best is all.

[Furball808]

It's natural for bitcoin to look like its gains recently are less impressive than the ones before but please put it into perspective. Obviously bitcoin was still rising back then. Imagine it started from $0.01. Bitcoin reaching $1 from that starting point is already approximately 10,000% increase. It is also easier for bitcoin to have these big percentage increases because again it was still starting out and less people are involved compared to now where it's a lot of people already who are at the very least know of bitcoin. I personally don't see this diminishing percentages of bitcoin as a bad thing. It is just what it is.

[qurbanshah02]

It's natural for bitcoin to look like its gains recently are less impressive than the ones before but please put it into perspective. Obviously bitcoin was still rising back then. Imagine it started from $0.01. Bitcoin reaching $1 from that starting point is already approximately 10,000% increase. It is also easier for bitcoin to have these big percentage increases because again it was still starting out and less people are involved compared to now where it's a lot of people already who are at the very least know of bitcoin. I personally don't see this diminishing percentages of bitcoin as a bad thing. It is just what it is.

Bitcoin has seen a good price recently and it is quite good that the price of Bitcoin has increased once again.  Investors should be thankful that Bitcoin was not affected by this war.  No matter how much someone says that Bitcoin has been affected, I do not believe it because the price of Bitcoin was the same before and it is the same after the war, but now after stopping the war for a while, the price of Bitcoin has taken it above 71k$.  Although this is the journey of Bitcoin, it has built itself to such a high price in 17 years and in the same way, 17 more years are to pass, so we can see many more prices than this, so keep Bitcoin safe with you so that we can get the most benefit from Bitcoin. The number of people who know Bitcoin is very high.If Bitcoin had not decreased in these few months, more people could have connected with Bitcoin, but some people are afraid because of the low price of Bitcoin.   I don't understand it either, but I'm surprised by how people talk about Bitcoin being dead.

[d5000]

I am thinking more 1 or 2. There are only four years left, and given how things have gone over the last eight, scenario 3 is far too optimistic.

Agree here. I have ranked the scenarios more or less in a descending order regarding probability. The first scenario, unfortunately, for me is the most likely one (50%+). However, the recent developments regarding Ark and some merchant adoptions give me a bit of hope that the probability of the "adoption scenario" could be higher than in previous times, maybe above 20% or so.

Regarding the "gold flippening" scenario, the scenario I have in mind would still not result in a full flipping (i.e. all Bitcoins being worth more than all gold in the world at the peak, that would be still too much for the early 2030s), but more in a narrative change where Bitcoin really is seen as a gold competitor -- and above all, decoupled from the political scene (we could say that Bitcoin had already a kind of "MAGA gold" moment with the Lummins initiative, but that was quite short-lived). It is the only chance I see for a really strong bull market like the previous ones, with prices more than tripling the previous 4-year ATH. It would probably be an one-time event, and later growth would slow down again.

It is, for me, a scenario that can happen at any time, as a possibility. It's like a "gray swan" I don't want to discard. I'd place the probability about 10% for until ~2030-32, but I agree that I would expect this more in a stage beyond 2030 (I've mostly mentioned years like 2035 or 2040 in previous occasions).

We must bear in mind that a 2x return, although it may seem modest given Bitcoin’s history, represents a 19% CAGR. This is an average return that none of the major assets—neither the Nasdaq nor gold, for example—can match.

Exactly. That's why I also think that a slowdown in price growth is nothing to worry about, but just a consequence of increased liquidity -- as long as it's accompanied by a reduction of downwards volatility.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

I agree with fact that stuck feeling is result of change between small traders to large countries and funds buying in that make price more steady yet slow to rise as compared to before. And future is never sure, but nowadays we can predict shortages in supply much more effectively than by just guessing, using new tools such as on chain numbers.

I think trip to $300,000 should be obligatory stop to help trust needed, after which no one will be able to even think of going further to $500,000. You are correct in focusing on this goal as Bitcoin must fight to find strong floor at these high levels to change risky dreams into reality in market.

Price levels will certainly be uncertain given the current global conditions, but if asked whether the price could reach $300,000 in the future, then based on previous ATHs, that should be more likely than $500,000. I'm optimistic about this price because we've seen this price jump based on the previous ATH and it happens every time Bitcoin reaches its highest price in the previous cycle. The current price stagnation is influenced by many factors, including as you mentioned excessive retailer buyers panicking, and the current global economic conditions which have slowed the price rise.

The future is indeed uncertain because no one knows how Bitcoin will perform. However, if we view Bitcoin as a store of value, its future growth should be much better. People tend to view Bitcoin as a store of value like gold, even though the two are quite different. People will seek assets that can protect value and this is why I'm optimistic that Bitcoin will perform much better in the future.

[CageMabok]

It's natural for bitcoin to look like its gains recently are less impressive than the ones before but please put it into perspective. Obviously bitcoin was still rising back then. Imagine it started from $0.01. Bitcoin reaching $1 from that starting point is already approximately 10,000% increase. It is also easier for bitcoin to have these big percentage increases because again it was still starting out and less people are involved compared to now where it's a lot of people already who are at the very least know of bitcoin. I personally don't see this diminishing percentages of bitcoin as a bad thing. It is just what it is.

If we compare the past to the present, there are certainly many factors that make the difference, especially when viewed through the percentage rate of Bitcoin's price itself. Because Bitcoin's current price decline is sometimes influenced by unfavorable global market conditions, which can cause price declines in addition to Bitcoin's own cyclical nature. I'm not particularly concerned about Bitcoin's current price decline, as further price increases are always possible for Bitcoin as long as interest in Bitcoin continues to grow each year.

[Danica22]

If Q4 in 2029 is to be the next expected high, what should we be expecting? $200k? $300k?

I currently have no predictions about the peak of Bitcoin in the upcoming bull market because we are still quite a distance away from that point

However, I think the price of Bitcoin at that time would depend on its level of adoption. In addition, we should keep in mind that as an asset matures and grow larger, its growth rate will gradually slow down. We cannot expect an asset with a market capitalization of $2-3 trillion to grow in the same way as an asset with a market capitalization of only $2–3 billion

Between $200k and $300k, I find $200k much more realistic.