2 week ceasefire

[Mame89]

What's really the update on the war, I saw that after the cease fire was declared a lot of Iranians were celebrating their victory, it was quite perplexing to me because I was starting to think that they don't know the meaning of a cease fire. At this point everyone is exhausted because the war is causing a lot of unrest and it's affecting the world economy. iran and US haven't really come to an agreement yet which iw why I think the war hasn't really ended yet. it is high time for Trump to step out of this and stop meddling in their affairs.

This war will last a long time because Iran is not weak. That's the problem.

If you're confused about why the ceasefire has made the Iranian people celebrate victory it's because psychologically Iran has already won. They are a country that has long been subject to economic and military sanctions, yet they have managed to survive despite being attacked by the US a superpower.

The US goal in attacking Iran is certainly for nuclear reasons. They don't develop uranium and essentially, the US wants to dominate Iran as it did with Venezuela. But the reality is that the US has not been able to weaken Iran in a short time and the war has now lasted more than a month proving Iran's strength.

In fact what I see now is the US trying to achieve at the negotiating table what it cannot achieve through war. In the negotiations America is demanding that Iran hand over enriched uranium and open the Strait of Hormuz without recognizing Iranian sovereignty over it. It's funny that something America has been unable to achieve through war for over a month now wants to achieve through the negotiating table. Of course, Iran has decided to defend its national interests by military means. It's safe to say this war won't end quickly as both Iran and the US are unlikely to be lenient. Iran wants to defend its sovereignty, while the US doesn't want to be seen as a failure.

This war will clearly put significant pressure on the global economy. Furthermore, if the war drags on and spreads to other countries it will certainly risk driving up energy prices in all countries even those farthest from the war zone. Furthermore, the war will increase global inflation and exacerbate global economic and financial uncertainty.

[abhiseshakana]

Updated: Following a series of threats, Trump has unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely.

It seems the United States no longer wants to prolong this war. This is not too difficult to understand, as they are spending too much on war without any guarantee of achieving the desired outcome. However, they decided to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until peace is achieved with Iran.

The continued closure of the strait will continue to put pressure on oil prices and the global economy. But I do not think oil prices will reach $200, I think they've already peaked.

As long as the war doesn't escalate, other problems can be resolved.

I don't think Trump's claim fracture on Iran's government news, not entirely objective, As i know, Trump action has pattern which is escalate first with strong threats and military action to get expected shock effect. After that he claim leverage and after that find exit way without appearing defeated. Strategy brinkmanship and management of image very match with Trump's pattern of action. If fracture in Iran goverment is fact then probably he will not use window opportunity strategy with delayed attack until Iran is not solid and he buying time to gather intelligence, ensure the dominant faction and break Iran's consolidation.

As you explained, I agree that Iran war now become domestic political liability for Trump, which can bring high risk such as increase oil price, domestic inflation and declining public support, we truly know for Trump public opinion and economic are major decision factors, beside that Trump more focus on gaining short term benefit instead of long war. He has overestimated on US air power and until now Iran still has sovereignity, Trump fail gaining fast winning against Iran which in the end create dilema between continue or stop.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brinkmanship

[Oluwa-btc]

What's really the update on the war, I saw that after the cease fire was declared a lot of Iranians were celebrating their victory, it was quite perplexing to me because I was starting to think that they don't know the meaning of a cease fire. At this point everyone is exhausted because the war is causing a lot of unrest and it's affecting the world economy. iran and US haven't really come to an agreement yet which iw why I think the war hasn't really ended yet. it is high time for Trump to step out of this and stop meddling in their affairs.

The Update is that, Iranians are winning the war and Donald Trump with his big ego keeps on spreading propaganda to his maga followers who are too lazy to carry out their own research.
Also, Iranians are refusing to negotiate is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by iran is not removed. They have a reason to rejoice. I have said it a billion times, the US and Iranians can come to an agreement but Israel goes on breaching that countless times. What is needed should be restraining Israel,  they're responsible for every single ceasefire deal not lasting long.

[free-bit.co.in]

Everyone knows that this fight would not give benefit to anyone but hiddenly it is not just a war it is a fighting to conquer the resources of Iran.

If war does not benefit anyone, it will never happen. But as you can see, war has been closely intertwined with humanity for thousands of years. This shows that war brings benefits, but those benefits accrue only to a select few.

This is not just a war for resources, but also a war between a unipolar world and a multipolar world. The US does not want a multipolar world to form because that would cause them to lose their superpower status.

[Abiky]

Updated: Following a series of threats, Trump has unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely.

It seems the United States no longer wants to prolong this war. This is not too difficult to understand, as they are spending too much on war without any guarantee of achieving the desired outcome. However, they decided to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until peace is achieved with Iran.

The continued closure of the strait will continue to put pressure on oil prices and the global economy. But I do not think oil prices will reach $200, I think they've already peaked.

As long as the war doesn't escalate, other problems can be resolved.

An indefinite ceasefire? I fail to see how that's going to work. Iran is already anxious in getting back in the war. Especially when one its tankers were confiscated by the US. They claim this a violation of the ceasefire terms. Besides, Trump want Iran to hand over its enriched Uranium supply. Iran isn't going to bend to the US' will, which means a ground invasion from the US will likely take place soon. The conflict will only get worse.

We are approaching the US' 2026 midterm elections. It's in Trump's best interests to keep the war going, to avoid elections from taking place. Meanwhile, the world will continue to suffer as oil prices continue to rise like there's no tomorrow. May God have mercy on our souls.

[BALIK]

An indefinite ceasefire? I fail to see how that's going to work. Iran is already anxious in getting back in the war. Especially when one its tankers were confiscated by the US. They claim this a violation of the ceasefire terms. Besides, Trump want Iran to hand over its enriched Uranium supply. Iran isn't going to bend to the US' will, which means a ground invasion from the US will likely take place soon. The conflict will only get worse.

We are approaching the US' 2026 midterm elections. It's in Trump's best interests to keep the war going, to avoid elections from taking place. Meanwhile, the world will continue to suffer as oil prices continue to rise like there's no tomorrow. May God have mercy on our souls.

Iran does not want to continue the war because it is taking place on its territory, but it will not surrender to the aggressor.

A ground invasion would mean a full-scale war. Only Congress has the authority to do that, the Trump administration does not have that authority.

In short, the war will not disrupt the US midterm elections, and that is a disadvantage for the Republican Party.

By the way, the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has also been extended for another three weeks. It seems nobody wants the war to drag on any longer.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

<snip>The conflict will only get worse.

We are approaching the US' 2026 midterm elections. It's in Trump's best interests to keep the war going, to avoid elections from taking place. Meanwhile, the world will continue to suffer as oil prices continue to rise like there's no tomorrow. May God have mercy on our souls.

I get the same sinking feeling in my gut, and it's not as though the US was all that popular in middle eastern countries before this.  While I'd certainly like to never see something like 9/11 again, Trump is poking countries like Iran hard.  He shouldn't have been elected a second time, but there's no changing that now.  He ought to be impeached, ASAP, and for more things than just this particular (but extremely important) issue.

Someone told me Trump's approval rating numbers are swirling down the shitter, even among his staunch followers.  Does that sound true or not?  Since I don't watch news, I can't tell if all of the bullshit he's pulling is popular with anybody anywhere.

[Oluwa-btc]

I get the same sinking feeling in my gut, and it's not as though the US was all that popular in middle eastern countries before this.  While I'd certainly like to never see something like 9/11 again, Trump is poking countries like Iran hard.  He shouldn't have been elected a second time, but there's no changing that now.  He ought to be impeached, ASAP, and for more things than just this particular (but extremely important) issue.

Someone told me Trump's approval rating numbers are swirling down the shitter, even among his staunch followers.  Does that sound true or not?  Since I don't watch news, I can't tell if all of the bullshit he's pulling is popular with anybody anywhere.

We still look up to what Congress can do over him but nothing has been done. Not even the release of the remaining 3 million Epstein files,  not even the victims have gotten justice. If this has not been achieved, I don't even expect him being impeached. Not now, not later, he'll most likely complete his tenure.

That is spot on, they're going down below. His staunch followers Scott Ritter, Cadence Owen, Tucker Carlson and many more of his smart maga followers throwing him under the bus.. Funny as it seems  there are Nigerian Trumpers who fvcks with his bullshit and bullying heavily over here. I don't blame them though, they don't know better. The damages done by Donald Trump will take a long time to be undone especially between American allies like Canada, Italy and France.

[Zlantann]

I get the same sinking feeling in my gut, and it's not as though the US was all that popular in middle eastern countries before this.  While I'd certainly like to never see something like 9/11 again, Trump is poking countries like Iran hard.  He shouldn't have been elected a second time, but there's no changing that now.  He ought to be impeached, ASAP, and for more things than just this particular (but extremely important) issue.

Someone told me Trump's approval rating numbers are swirling down the shitter, even among his staunch followers.  Does that sound true or not?  Since I don't watch news, I can't tell if all of the bullshit he's pulling is popular with anybody anywhere.

His campaign promise of not leading the US to any war attracted voters to him. I guess US citizens wanted a president that will focus on internal issues instead of spending fortunes fighting wars. Most of the voters who bought his America First idea will be disappointed by the war in Iran and other parts of the Middle East. This might be one of the reasons why Trump's approval ratings are dropping.

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[Nathrixxx]

I don't even know which side should I see as being at fault or not, because both sides are claiming their winning on each of their attack and they are not relenting to withdraw or put an end to the war, we expect that the cease fire should be the solution to every challenges already on ground but instead we are only seeing that things I get him more opportunity to linger, while the economy is at the verge of collapse for many country because of their instability in controlling its.

[Chilwell]

Everyone knows that this fight would not give benefit to anyone but hiddenly it is not just a war it is a fighting to conquer the resources of Iran.

If war does not benefit anyone, it will never happen. But as you can see, war has been closely intertwined with humanity for thousands of years. This shows that war brings benefits, but those benefits accrue only to a select few.

This is not just a war for resources, but also a war between a unipolar world and a multipolar world. The US does not want a multipolar world to form because that would cause them to lose their superpower status.

Just because of personal interest the entire world are facing difficulties honestly, i don't know how they come together to form an international law, but a lot of Nations are violating the rules of international law and everyone is just looking at them, are those people bigger than the law itself because I don't see anything happening to them and so many people were just talking without any action.

I think it is high time the world leaders comes together to end this war because there are people that are still benefiting and the worst part is that they are the rich people and the poor people are still suffering because the fuel is getting higher, which is affecting all the commodities and everything around us.

[abhiseshakana]

<snip>The conflict will only get worse.

We are approaching the US' 2026 midterm elections. It's in Trump's best interests to keep the war going, to avoid elections from taking place. Meanwhile, the world will continue to suffer as oil prices continue to rise like there's no tomorrow. May God have mercy on our souls.

I get the same sinking feeling in my gut, and it's not as though the US was all that popular in middle eastern countries before this.  While I'd certainly like to never see something like 9/11 again, Trump is poking countries like Iran hard.  He shouldn't have been elected a second time, but there's no changing that now.  He ought to be impeached, ASAP, and for more things than just this particular (but extremely important) issue.

Someone told me Trump's approval rating numbers are swirling down the shitter, even among his staunch followers.  Does that sound true or not?  Since I don't watch news, I can't tell if all of the bullshit he's pulling is popular with anybody anywhere.

Of course, facing mid term election, every potus will consider and calculate about approval rating decline and any action that give political opponents ammunition, which mean Trump managed domestic political risk with ceasefire extension because any additional escalation in Middle east will cause real electoral cost. One important consideration for Trump to make u turn is the increasingly strong Eurasian land connectivity especially rail logistic relation between China and Iran, which make traditional maritime pressure which previously are US main advantages no longer effective. For decades, US military power rested on naval dominance, US control of trade chokepoint and US power to blockade energy and logistics flow. When Iran has alternative land trade route, US pressure which relied heavily on maritime route become less effective, escalation cost more expensive and political outcome not automatically fast. Its like Mac Kinder Heartland Theory, whoever connects the core of the Eurasian landmass gains greater strategic resilience. When Eurasian more connected and if a quick victory is uncertain, then the political incentive to contain escalation is even greater. Ceaseire extension as tacit acknowledgement that geopolitical realities are shifting, unipolar era not as strong as previously, China, Iran, Russia, India through silk road extension are connected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Nations_Railway_Corridor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_North%E2%80%93South_Transport_Corridor

[Abiky]

I get the same sinking feeling in my gut, and it's not as though the US was all that popular in middle eastern countries before this.  While I'd certainly like to never see something like 9/11 again, Trump is poking countries like Iran hard.  He shouldn't have been elected a second time, but there's no changing that now.  He ought to be impeached, ASAP, and for more things than just this particular (but extremely important) issue.

Someone told me Trump's approval rating numbers are swirling down the shitter, even among his staunch followers.  Does that sound true or not?  Since I don't watch news, I can't tell if all of the bullshit he's pulling is popular with anybody anywhere.

Yes. Unfortunately, Americans made a terrible mistake by electing Trump again. They thought he was going to "fix" the economy, but he only made it worse. Now many people are wishing to go back to the "Biden" era. At least, the US stood up to its allies and had "sound" (sort of) economic policies. Ukraine was safe, while the FED wasn't at risk of getting politicized. These days, Ukraine is at risk of getting "crushed" by Russia (due to the cessation of aid under the current administration and the Iran war filling Russia's pockets) while the FED is about to get a new chairman that would meet with Trump's demands.

The Iran war could've simply been avoided. Trump and team should've chosen the diplomatic route first, instead going all in against Iran. Now everyone is paying the consequences. The longer the war takes, the greater the economic pain for Americans and the world. We'll see what happens in the long run.

[Sobz]

Iran does not want to continue the war because it is taking place on its territory, but it will not surrender to the aggressor.

A ground invasion would mean a full-scale war. Only Congress has the authority to do that, the Trump administration does not have that authority.

In short, the war will not disrupt the US midterm elections, and that is a disadvantage for the Republican Party.

By the way, the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has also been extended for another three weeks. It seems nobody wants the war to drag on any longer.

The conflict between us and Iran is a result of failed negotiations that have been piling up, and at this time it is very difficult for these two countries to come together to make a good agreement. I think the way the US is going about it right now is driven by emotion, and it is making things even more difficult. Everything is not about war, and I believe the US should lead by example by prioritizing peace. If there are things Iran is not doing better, there are other ways, like sanctions, to address the issues with Iran. I think the US is too big to go to war with Iran; negotiations should have been the option for peace.

[Gost ms]

<snip>The conflict will only get worse.

We are approaching the US' 2026 midterm elections. It's in Trump's best interests to keep the war going, to avoid elections from taking place. Meanwhile, the world will continue to suffer as oil prices continue to rise like there's no tomorrow. May God have mercy on our souls.

I get the same sinking feeling in my gut, and it's not as though the US was all that popular in middle eastern countries before this.  While I'd certainly like to never see something like 9/11 again, Trump is poking countries like Iran hard.  He shouldn't have been elected a second time, but there's no changing that now.  He ought to be impeached, ASAP, and for more things than just this particular (but extremely important) issue.

Someone told me Trump's approval rating numbers are swirling down the shitter, even among his staunch followers.  Does that sound true or not?  Since I don't watch news, I can't tell if all of the bullshit he's pulling is popular with anybody anywhere.

I saw in some media that maybe the people of their country are very angry against Trump. Trump is still a very respectable person, but looking at the situation he is going to create, it doesn't seem like he will be able to maintain this respect for a long time. Everyone wants to live peacefully. But looking at what Trump has started, it seems like World War III is very close. At this moment, Trump must keep himself in control and move forward.

Good relations are the key to peace. If we want peace, then we must change the forms of violence. Israel's aggression is increasing day by day and the main culprit of this war is Israel, at this moment, Trump must keep Israel in control.