Polymarket haters unite

[alani123]

The issue of how Pokymarket, Kalshi and prediction markets in general (but especially crypto based ones) are treating real life issues is beyond disgusting. There's a ton of insider trading and even incentives for parties involved to make outlandish claims to sway the market or just in some instances seeing instituojs outright go out of their way to change results.

When money is on the line and markets like this put so much on insider knowledge then there's very high monetary incentive for those with insider knowledge to utilise it.

One would say that if polymarket and Kalshi were not to do it, somebody else would. But what if... What was the world like before these markets? There was very little opportunity to bet on miniscule presidential actions. Polymarket has gotten so much traction that they even started created markets for who would say what and even how often. It's crazy. Of course these markets can be manipulated very easily by the subjects.

Sports are supposed to be impartial but we know from leagues of small countries that as soon as gambling enters the market corruption skyrockets and results are no longer fair as expected.

We've now seen events where the growth of prediction markets has affected the outcome of impactful events in some cases, in in some other cases officials going out of their way to utilize their insider knowledge.

So I'm starting this thread as a way for anyone to discuss and post all the negative things they see and feel about prediction markets. Feel free to post news or anything related to the topic about shit prediction markets do.

[Darker45]

I'm not necessarily a hater but there are indeed events whose decisions are already known by a few individuals before they're publicly announced. So, there's real opportunity for these insiders to take advantage of confidential information and make easy money.

I'm not familiar with all the events made available in prediction markets, but could you name a specific event you consider "miniscule presidential actions" that "can be manipulated very easily by the subjects" themselves?

Trump, for example, could place a bet on an event about his own decision and subsequently make a decision according to his bet. That's essentially free money on his part, but the decisions don't seem miniscule to me. They seem to come with heavy consequences.

[viljy]

One would say that if polymarket and Kalshi were not to do it, somebody else would. But what if...

Let's say you grab the hand that reached into your pocket, turn your head, and see Shane Polymarket smiling, who tells you, "Okay, don't scream, if it wasn't for me, someone else would have done it." And indeed, his accomplice Kalshi runs up and whispers: "Exactly. I would have done it."
So this is a weak argument so that the forecasting markets can justify their innate manipulativeness.

The problem is that you can limit manipulation and insider trading only if you ban betting on events that depend on a narrow circle of people, or even on one person, and even more so on people authorized to make decisions at different government levels. But then it will no longer be a prediction market containing bets on anything.

[alani123]

One would say that if polymarket and Kalshi were not to do it, somebody else would. But what if...

Let's say you grab the hand that reached into your pocket, turn your head, and see Shane Polymarket smiling, who tells you, "Okay, don't scream, if it wasn't for me, someone else would have done it." And indeed, his accomplice Kalshi runs up and whispers: "Exactly. I would have done it."
So this is a weak argument so that the forecasting markets can justify their innate manipulativeness.

The problem is that you can limit manipulation and insider trading only if you ban betting on events that depend on a narrow circle of people, or even on one person, and even more so on people authorized to make decisions at different government levels. But then it will no longer be a prediction market containing bets on anything.

There are very few events that physically would be very impractical or nearly impossible to manipulate, don't depend on a narrow circle of individuals and are also able to show objective results based on chance. Even the weather can be manipulated. Maybe astronomical events can't be manipulated but then again on many occasions we have a singular observer. So who's to say that if there was a market of millions on the size of a comment that the single space agency pointing satellite telesropes to it wouldn't lie to get some juicy bets for insiders?

So independent verifiability is also another issue. The observers of events have incentives to lie, or have even been threatened for reporting on the truth. A recent example was polymarket users threatening a reporter for simply not staying there was rockets hitting Israel in a day that there indeed probably weren't any.

The harms of prediction markets are many. The ethics are very murky and the larger these markets become the more harm that will be observed. There's probably no ethical way to run a prediction market because there's simply nothing that fits the criteria of independently observable events that can't in any way be related to corruption.

[Die_empty]

The suspicion of manipulation and insider betting is becoming pronounced. There is a report that a new account just won $400,000 in Polymarket by predicting the exact day that a ceasefire would be declared. There have been recurrent wins by suspicious accounts winning large sums from mostly US political issues. This has led some legislatures to sponsor a motion that will bar some government officials from placing bets in prediction platforms.

These prediction platforms need to do more to improve their credibility. As it stands now, they are making the rich richer. Many of us would not have access to this insider information, so these top government officials are just making money.

These platforms also need to strengthen their internal safeguards to avoid offering bets on delicate or controversial matters.

[davis196]

One would say that if polymarket and Kalshi were not to do it, somebody else would. But what if... What was the world like before these markets? There was very little opportunity to bet on miniscule presidential actions. Polymarket has gotten so much traction that they even started created markets for who would say what and even how often. It's crazy. Of course these markets can be manipulated very easily by the subjects.

This is what happens, when the betting industry isn't regulated well enough. People betting on whether Trump would write the word "bastards" on one of his TruthSocial posts. We live in a clown world... Only proper government regulation would solve the problem. I'm sure that the governments would soon step in and restrict Polymarket and Kalshi. The Trump administration won't do anything, but the Democrats will sooner or later win a majority in the Congress as well as the next presidential administration and they will regulate and put restrictions on the prediction markets.

[rbynxx]

The issue of how Pokymarket, Kalshi and prediction markets in general (but especially crypto based ones) are treating real life issues is beyond disgusting. There's a ton of insider trading and even incentives for parties involved to make outlandish claims to sway the market or just in some instances seeing instituojs outright go out of their way to change results.

I was skeptical to be honest with Kalshi after that Giannis partnership they probably sold that one considering how many people do anticipated he will be traded then comes the announcement that he partners with them. Like wft? There are definitely some insiders on that sites and it will probably linger longer than we can imagine, probably stakeholders are the one benefiting on it plus it's too centralized.

[iv4n]

You are not wrong about the risks, but the prediction markets didn't invent manipulation or corruption... maybe we can say they just made it more visible and easier to exploit.

I am not a fan of prediction markets, and I don't use them... but it would be foolish to think that removing them would fix anything... the doors are open & now we can just watch how it plays out.

[cryptoaddictchie]

There will always a counter for any narrative that arises when it comes to risk and scams. Yes prediction markets hasnt been totally transparent and that will be their weakness especially the manipulation part on inside trading. Everyday theres a bad news about them and its inevitable if the mass finds those flaws.

Im active on X and seen a lot of degens still accumulating points for their potential airdrops. They ignore the fud since what they after u the potential rewards. Which should be a concern indeed.

[Accardo]

I wouldnt hesitate to say that it's a two way kind of manipulation from players and the market. Members of the congress also get surprised at how people get to predict correctly some hidden government intelligence, it's as though insiders go about using the market to make more money from the secret meetings they've been a part of, the world will definitely be an open place with markets like this and then the manipulation will triple and hard to control.

[Outhue]

One would say that if polymarket and Kalshi were not to do it, somebody else would. But what if... What was the world like before these markets? There was very little opportunity to bet on miniscule presidential actions. Polymarket has gotten so much traction that they even started created markets for who would say what and even how often. It's crazy. Of course these markets can be manipulated very easily by the subjects.

This is what happens, when the betting industry isn't regulated well enough. People betting on whether Trump would write the word "bastards" on one of his TruthSocial posts. We live in a clown world... Only proper government regulation would solve the problem. I'm sure that the governments would soon step in and restrict Polymarket and Kalshi. The Trump administration won't do anything, but the Democrats will sooner or later win a majority in the Congress as well as the next presidential administration and they will regulate and put restrictions on the prediction markets.

I'm imagining a world without regulation? It will be total chaos, this is one of the reasons why centralisation makes sense on its own, this is also why I don't completely hate centralisation, not all those who wants fully decentralisation wants fully privacy for their own good, the majority of them are people who want to escape with their crimes, it's why they are supportive of the decentralisation, and fortunately decentralisation has to co-exists with centralisation today, bitcoin can't kill the banks, the government and also Fiat currencies, they all have problems they have to fix.

[freedomgo]

Though I’m not really using that platform since I mostly stick to sportsbooks, the way I see it, they are still attracting people to bet on events that could lead to serious consequences, and the amounts involved are huge. Because of that, I think it makes sense why some would push for it to be banned.

Their type of market could even encourage certain groups or individuals to create chaos just to win those prediction bets. So it’s not just about insider information anymore, there’s also the risk that someone might try to influence or make the outcome happen because they already have money on it.

[Kelward]

I wouldn't put myself in a place to hate prediction sites because they are no worse than many governments and companies that are corrupt and manipulating the people, if I have to hate prediction sites I'll go further than just them. Clearly we cannot overlook the possibilities and in some cases clear cases of manipulations but what can we do, we're not the ones making the payments to the manipulative wins. Prediction market is no difference from gambling, if you put your money on the line for an event to happen you should hope that even if it is rigged that it should be to your advantage because I don't think that you can sue the site for anything. With the skepticism that is building around Polymarket and Kalshi we should watch and see how far the prediction industry will go.

[crwth]

This is how powerful people who can control the narrative and markets take advantage. You would really see how much of a skew a thing could be when there are predictions that people could control the outcome. I really don't like the way they do it because of the market fairness that they do.

This is the unregulated market where it's like insiders trading and the people would be the ones to suffer and the powerful people benefits.

[leea-1334]

I always did feel a little bit weird when these markets came out but Polymarket and friends are just the latest crypto versions, right?

I mean,,, I saw these kinds of bets even 10 or 15 years ago. Starts with something small like Brexit decision, something dumb like what color gatorade will be poured over on Superbowl,,, but I also saw even in those days some life-death shit like if world war 3 would start.

Blame the platform or blame people?

[Charles-Tim]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5579684.msg66593417#msg66593417

Only just one thing that is bad about prediction market is what you have posted already which is manipulation, especially the insider trading. But pI think the prediction markets are starting to make rules against manipulation but these rules are new. Let us see how it later is to know if it will be effective or not.

Another disadvantage of prediction markets is that people can lose money. It is just gambling.

[danherbias07]

I am not a hater, but it is true that somehow it is manipulating the market and also setting up the minds of people. Then, there's the gambling of events that should not be there, like war and papacy. I mean, it's ridiculous because who would know if there's a war that will happen, and since many will bet on "Yes" with millions of dollars on the line, they will probably do it.

They can definitely add sports events just like the sports bookies, but the absurd markets should not be there to avoid provocation and also forcing it to happen even if it should not. They just gave them the idea and made a popular bet for it, which will make some people talk and maybe become a trend.

[yhiaali3]

My friend, this is the nature of these markets, and governments know this and do not put in place the appropriate controls to regulate the work of prediction markets. I cannot rule out the involvement of government figures and high-ranking officials with these markets.

Although the damages of prediction markets are very numerous and ethical controls are absent, they still have great popularity because there are winners who benefit. It is difficult to prove that they manipulate results and events in their favor, and even if you are absolutely certain, they are legally protected and know what they are doing so that all their affairs appear perfectly legal.

[Questat]

So I'm starting this thread as a way for anyone to discuss and post all the negative things they see and feel about prediction markets. Feel free to post news or anything related to the topic about shit prediction markets do.

This isn’t just about Polymarket, other prediction platforms are offering the same kind of markets. I think it is what it is for now, but if they ever get properly regulated, their profits will likely drop.

It’s the kind of market that many people don’t even want to exist because of how harmful it can be, yet they continue to offer it. Maybe it’s because they have a license in the US, so even if they don’t have one in other countries, they still feel confident because of that backing.

As for me, I don’t like it, but there’s really nothing I can do since I’m not a regulator.

[dimonstration]

I don’t like Polymarket because it can be manipulated due to the bet they are offering that can easily abused by an inside trader and who knows if there’s a collusion happening between polymarket and other services to the person with inside trader.

Even the interest on betting on non-sports game that is not already ethical was practiced by this services so I don’t touch this service at all and stick to sports betting only.

A thorough investigation and regulation needed for this questionable service.