69% of Polymarket traders lose money

[bitcoinchaserteam]

Just saw data showing 69% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. Out of 2.4 million people.

Most losers dropped $1-$100. Most winners made... $0-$100.

Isn't that just casino numbers with a different name?

Like they call it "prediction markets" but if 7 out of 10 people lose money, that's literally gambling right? Same loss rates as slots or sports betting.

What am I missing here?

Is the only real difference that "prediction market trader" sounds smarter than "gambler"?

Because the math looks identical to me.

[PrettySk360]

You're not missing anything.

69% loss rate = gambling, just with better branding.

I lost $80 on Polymarket thinking I understood politics. Turns out reading Twitter doesn't make you a forecaster 💀

It's betting with extra steps.

[Slow death]

I thought the number of losers was greater than 90% of people. Seeing a number like 69% losers in the prediction market can be considered a very optimistic number, because it would show that at least 25% of people are winning, something I have a lot of difficulty believing. Could it be that this data saying that 69% of people are losing is a deliberately lower number so that when people read it, they think they might have a chance to win if they enter this prediction market? It seems to me that's the case.

[luciencyrpto]

Just saw data showing 69% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. Out of 2.4 million people.

Most losers dropped $1-$100. Most winners made... $0-$100.

Isn't that just casino numbers with a different name?

Like they call it "prediction markets" but if 7 out of 10 people lose money, that's literally gambling right? Same loss rates as slots or sports betting.

What am I missing here?

Is the only real difference that "prediction market trader" sounds smarter than "gambler"?

Because the math looks identical to me.

"Read 5 threads, think you're Nate Silver" 😭

That's the whole platform in one sentence

The data backs it up - 53% lost under $100, which means most people aren't even going deep, just testing the waters and getting burned immediately

[Wapfika]

Like they call it "prediction markets" but if 7 out of 10 people lose money, that's literally gambling right? Same loss rates as slots or sports betting.

What am I missing here?

Is the only real difference that "prediction market trader" sounds smarter than "gambler"?

Because the math looks identical to me.

It’s impossible to have more winner than loser since the majority always choose to bet on the lower odds or price per contract on this case.

I’m confused on how you can apply the math for getting the proper winning percentage on a prediction market that doesn’t have ideal winning percentage for player.

Players are predicting each other while there’s fee for the service provider which means that 69% is slightly above 50% that make sense due to the fees that will contribute more losers.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I thought the number of losers was greater than 90% of people. Seeing a number like 69% losers in the prediction market can be considered a very optimistic number, because it would show that at least 25% of people are winning, something I have a lot of difficulty believing. Could it be that this data saying that 69% of people are losing is a deliberately lower number so that when people read it, they think they might have a chance to win if they enter this prediction market? It seems to me that's the case.

Nah, I don't think that are optimism with that numbers, > 50% losing is already big for Polymarket or even for gamblers ourselves.

As for winnings, we have seen that the outcome can be manipulated or at least someone with inside information can list a prediction and then put a lot of money on it just like what we have seen prior to the conflict in the middle east as some make a lot of money out of that war.

[Charles-Tim]

Like they call it "prediction markets" but if 7 out of 10 people lose money, that's literally gambling right? Same loss rates as slots or sports betting.

What am I missing here?

Is the only real difference that "prediction market trader" sounds smarter than "gambler"?

Because the math looks identical to me.

In gambling, it was reported that only 3% people are making money.

In trading, some report that 3% are making profit in short term trades. But there are also reports that generally only 15% of traders are making money.

Prediction market is gambling and trading packed together into one. Gambling and trading that most people are losing money.

If most people are losing money in both gambling and trading, expect more people to lose money in prediction make. I am even surprised that 33% of people are making money in prediction market.

[GreatArkansas]

Like they call it "prediction markets" but if 7 out of 10 people lose money, that's literally gambling right? Same loss rates as slots or sports betting.

What am I missing here?

Is the only real difference that "prediction market trader" sounds smarter than "gambler"?

Because the math looks identical to me.

In gambling, it was reported that only 3% people are making money.

In trading, some report that 3% are making profit in short term trades. But there are also reports that generally only 15% of traders are making money.

Prediction market is gambling and trading packed together into one. Gambling and trading that most people are losing money.

If most people are losing money in both gambling and trading, expect more people to lose money in prediction make. I am even surprised that 33% of people are making money in prediction market.

Hahaha. I love this! This makes sense somehow, even though a lot of people say prediction markets are easy because sometimes you have to choose yes or no only or you have list of choices to bet on, but still, you are having difficulty becoming profitable in the long run.
Maybe this also depends on category you are betting or it depends on every person's interests/knowledges?

[rdluffy]

Although it shares some similarities with traditional betting and may seem like just another form of betting, the prediction market is different from traditional betting

You’re betting against other users rather than against the casino,  plus, you can trade in other ways by buying shares, selling whenever you want, etc
I believe it’s nearly impossible to try to create a model to predict the percentage of wins and losses, since everything will depend on how much users believe, or don’t believe, that an event will happen

But it’s quite interesting to see how the prediction market works

[Ishicryptic]

The prediction sites are owned by business people whose aim are to make profit same as casinos so there will always be an underlying house edge somewhere that puts them ahead of the gamblers and "traders" which are the same thing. The prediction market is gamblinng industry which was rebranded to accommodate people who likes to stake their money to win more money but don't like to be called gamblers. If for any reasons the total number of winners starts to become greater than the total number of losers the prediction market will crash including the gambling industry but as far as there are far more losers than winners business is good for them both.

[xenomorfo]

Nah, I don't think that are optimism with that numbers, > 50% losing is already big for Polymarket or even for gamblers ourselves.

As for winnings, we have seen that the outcome can be manipulated or at least someone with inside information can list a prediction and then put a lot of money on it just like what we have seen prior to the conflict in the middle east as some make a lot of money out of that war.

Crazy, but if 69% of people lose, it means that the remaining 31% of people win.
It doesn't make sense, on a site like this i would have thought it was 50% losing and 50% winning.
I don't know, something doesn't add up to me, it seems like a sort of rigged table to me.

[Dunamisx]

Just saw data showing 69% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. Out of 2.4 million people.

If we can have the capture at this range, they know that there is high probability of the percentage more higher than this we are seeing, this is just to show you that gamblers are no much interested in playing prediction markets because of the risk the no that is attached which is more higher than the one day take from playing on casinos.

[bitcoinchaserteam]

Just saw data showing 69% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. Out of 2.4 million people.

Most losers dropped $1-$100. Most winners made... $0-$100.

Isn't that just casino numbers with a different name?

Like they call it "prediction markets" but if 7 out of 10 people lose money, that's literally gambling right? Same loss rates as slots or sports betting.

What am I missing here?

Is the only real difference that "prediction market trader" sounds smarter than "gambler"?

Because the math looks identical to me.

https://bitcoinchaser.com/69-percent-traders-on-polymarket-unprofitable/?utm_campaign=ppt

[TastyChillySauce00]

This is how smart polymarketet is by brainwashing people. They created an illusion to make people are thinking they are something professional like trading, while the fact they're betting on it. Their illussion is successfully traping people to think they're doing prediction trading while the fact it’s just gambling with better vocabulary.

No doubt they made tons of money from their gamblers. So many insiders traded there. People should never touch polymarket to ensure they are safe. Myself call poly users are even low than degens.

[Alex077]

Just saw data showing 69% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. Out of 2.4 million people.

Most losers dropped $1-$100. Most winners made... $0-$100.
Isn't that just casino numbers with a different name?

Yeah, prediction markets are a good question, but there’s an important nuance here.  69% in the red, that means around 31% are in profit, which is already noticeably higher than in a typical casino. Slots: 5–10% winners. Sports betting: 3–5%. Everyone else loses in the long run.
At first it looks different, but in reality only ~0.4% on Polymarket stay profitable long-term, so it’s all in how you interpret the stats.
Casino has the house edge, while here you’re just trading against other players.
But in practice, user behavior looks very similar - same impulsive decisions and small wins/losses.

[maydna]

They are gambling and that is the risks they will gets. If they realize the risks and not playing with a large money, they will not losing big as they controlling the funds. But most people tempting to win big so they chasing the win by placing a big bet. That is the numbers but we know that numbers can increases if people still not cares with their funds. You need to understand that gambling is not places to makes money but only for fun. And if you bet on the prediction market, you should know that the chance of losing money will be there.

[OgNasty]

This is how it goes… Especially when you consider all the bots extracting small amounts from the market constantly. There has to be losers for there to be winners and data like this shows that the big winners are getting more than their fair share. Still, not a bad evolution of gambling.

[lombok]

They are gambling and that is the risks they will gets. If they realize the risks and not playing with a large money, they will not losing big as they controlling the funds. But most people tempting to win big so they chasing the win by placing a big bet. That is the numbers but we know that numbers can increases if people still not cares with their funds. You need to understand that gambling is not places to makes money but only for fun. And if you bet on the prediction market, you should know that the chance of losing money will be there.

It is the most prudent approach to have a passion over the prediction markets turned into a financial disaster that is initiated by discipline in managing reserve capital. Most individuals end up in a trap of pursuing victories due to inability to manage their goals when observing the ever-changing scores. Considering this activity only as entertainment will bring peace of mind and not being overwhelmed by the uncertainty of the result. The possibility of financial loss should always be considered well in order to make sure that every action does not go beyond healthy proportions.

[sompitonov]

This is how it goes… Especially when you consider all the bots extracting small amounts from the market constantly. There has to be losers for there to be winners and data like this shows that the big winners are getting more than their fair share. Still, not a bad evolution of gambling.

I don't think 69% of losers is the worst, because in slots and other gambling games, the rate is probably higher. Still, here you at least have to use your brain and think, and do at least some basic analysis. In slots, players just press one button and think nothing of it, hoping for luck. In any case, I'm glad these bets have appeared; they offer new opportunities for those who truly set a goal of developing a strategy and playing accurately. And those players who always rely on luck will come to the polymarket and start betting on various events without a single thought as to why they're doing it.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I doubt it's just 69% of players on polymarket that are losing money, I strongly believe that the percentage is more than 80% because polymarket is same as gambling and a lot of people are losing in a game of probability where wining is inconsistent. Even in real trading, the number of successful traders is highly low and that's how it is in gambling too, so I truly believe that losing players are more than 69% in polymarket.