Three Polymarket traders made timely bets on US-Iran ceasefire

[Oshosondy]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

[Beparanf]

Is this not another insider trading?

High possibility it’s an inside trading since it’s very rare for a huge money just casually drop on a bet like this while Iran is not showing a sign of willingness for negotiation on the last few days before the deadline.

Polymarket seems like becomes a popular tool as an easy profit for those people that has an access for this information.

[Lucius]

It's not that the option for a ceasefire didn't exist, Pakistan and China were trying to convince Iran to agree to some conditions and that was no secret. Anyone who assumed this would happen could have simply taken a risk with such a bet, but it is not ruled out that someone used inside information to profit.

You never know with these things, but the fact is that anyone could have made money if they had bet on the same thing.

[Zlantann]

Is this not another insider trading?

High possibility it’s an inside trading since it’s very rare for a huge money just casually drop on a bet like this while Iran is not showing a sign of willingness for negotiation on the last few days before the deadline.

Polymarket seems like becomes a popular tool as an easy profit for those people that has an access for this information.

Are these wins a coincidence? I don't think so since these accounts were newly created and funded. The amount that was risked is also suspicous.

I assume that some set of people is getting constant inside information from someone close to the corridors of power in the US. Polymarket have need to seek means to investigate this suspicoin because it is affecting the reputation of their platform. 

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Is this not another insider trading?

High possibility it’s an inside trading since it’s very rare for a huge money just casually drop on a bet like this while Iran is not showing a sign of willingness for negotiation on the last few days before the deadline.

Polymarket seems like becomes a popular tool as an easy profit for those people that has an access for this information.

Are these wins a coincidence? I don't think so since these accounts were newly created and funded. The amount that was risked is also suspicous.

I assume that some set of people is getting constant inside information from someone close to the corridors of power in the US. Polymarket have need to seek means to investigate this suspicoin because it is affecting the reputation of their platform. 

Yes, and that's what I have been saying prior, that there is a big chance that this accounts might have insider information specially on how they list and put a huge amount of stake about the ceasefire.

That's why the image of Polymarket has been tainted with this kind of betting and that's why it has been frown upon but there are still people who doesn't have any conscience whatsoever but by just wanting to make money.

[348Judah]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

As for me, I will not be deceived by all this and go for polymarket gambling, irrespective of the condition that is involved, I don't see it as a buy idea for me to play prediction market because this is not even interesting at all, I can't be gambling on human lives and still yet they risk in playing this is very high than not.

[Cryptmuster]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

It's suspicious that all these bets were made from newly created wallets, and that the bets were made right before the ceasefire. It seems that Iran's decision was more important here, but that's not really the point. The point remains that these bets were made by someone who knew this would happen. All three bets involved large sums of money, which also suggests that these wallets may be connected. I mean, between people who can communicate with each other.

I'd like to know how Polymarket responds to such bets. Will they simply pay them out, or might such bets require further check?

[hyudien]

Does anyone remember the Bitcoin crash last year in 24 hours? Shortly before, there were accounts betting on it. Therefore, considering that a win like this on Polymarket isn't a one-off, it seems like the victory over the ceasefire wasn't simply a fluke. Yes, I don't rule out the possibility of a win, based on previous analysis, given the massive coverage of the war, but it still seems a bit odd to me, as if it were planned, since the accounts were created recently, so, what do you think? I'm pretty sure you're all thinking the same thing: there might be insiders involved in the wins.

[leonair]

Is this not another insider trading?

High possibility it’s an inside trading since it’s very rare for a huge money just casually drop on a bet like this while Iran is not showing a sign of willingness for negotiation on the last few days before the deadline.

Polymarket seems like becomes a popular tool as an easy profit for those people that has an access for this information.

There are many who get various sensitive information through various secret sources and they only place big bets on Polymarket because they know in advance what is going to happen. Polymarket is a big place for them to easily generate billions of dollars. Especially big politicians and powerful people are involved in these, they make different things happen and take advantage of them from Polymarket. I consider it a black world so I never go here and I do not suggest anyone to go here because there is a lot of politics going on here

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

This war has caused so much disaster and while it was on, most people observed including those that loves trading on polymarket, with how things were going I assume that these people who took the risk of betting on the cease -fire option already thought to themselves that definitely both country will cease fire being that the war should at least take a cool off. So, I would assume it's just a lucky coincidence for those players, but where it gets twisted is that this people risked a huge amount on this bet as if they were very sure of what the outcome would be, they didn't just stake with a small amount as if they are only trying their luck, so I do also have a feeling it could have been an inside info.

[batang_bitcoin]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

If that's how it is, then that's a very possible insider trading. People from the Trump's administration are getting the first gist of the information and that's why they're taking advantage of it. I think polymarket needs to monitor these kinds of bets if they want to protect their platform from insider trading. Because if this will continue, they're going to be a platform for these insiders and none of the usual bettors will be happy about it but only them who takes advantage of the situation and earns money after securing profits heavily.

[Akbarkoe]

This is not a coincidence this is well planned, they get more accurate information so predict correctly, in view of the prolonged situation, many economies are starting to choke by the war in the middle east, even Trump has to stick his own spit to be able to make this decision.
 
It always sucks when the bet is unfair, what can we believe that it's a coincidence, I think they are more like thieves, which we don't realize.

[Mindyspace]

It does seem suspicious. Three new wallets were created, placed large bets shortly before the ceasefire announcement, and profited soon after. This raises the possibility that someone used insider information.

On platforms like Polymarket, this falls into a gray area, because those with more information or who follow the news more closely can bet before others.

But when new accounts appear, large bets are placed, and quick profits are made, it's normal to suspect that insider information may have been involved. That's how I understand it.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

It is very possible that we only hear about the occasion of gamblers that made it to fortune on Polymarket, but a number of them that lose the huge fortune might not be aired for us to know about their ugly incidents, this is why we should not be moved by anything we see that is being propagated online because we don't know the actual condition that might have happened in the past on that same experience we are seeing.

[Findingnemo]

Could be a coincidence, but I am leaning more towards it's an insider job. New accounts betting thousands of dollars just on the right time before the ceasefire happened looks fishy for sure.

But as always, this will be investigated for a while, or just go on unnoticed with something else. However, ethically it is wrong if someone actually used an info to make thousands of dollars with an information that is not yet announced for public and could even be illegal depends on the laws there.

[Fiatless]

Could be a coincidence, but I am leaning more towards it's an insider job. New accounts betting thousands of dollars just on the right time before the ceasefire happened looks fishy for sure.

But as always, this will be investigated for a while, or just go on unnoticed with something else. However, ethically it is wrong if someone actually used an info to make thousands of dollars with an information that is not yet announced for public and could even be illegal depends on the laws there.

If it is an insider job that is organised by someone close to the government, it might not be investigated now. Such a probe might be done after the present government has left office. This is because those involved now would do everything possible including lobbying lawmakers to frustrate every move to investigate these strange accounts.

Although Pakistan was pushing hard for a ceasefire, I never expected it. I thought Trump would extend the deadline while fighting continued.

[Chinesebaby]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

But if I may ask, were these three gamblers the only people that gambled that there will be a cease fire between the US vs Iran war on the Polymarket prediction betting? Because if they weren't the only people who place a bet on it, and there were a whole lot of other gamblers who have same similar bets and won. Then I simply see nothing wrong with this bet been alleged as an insider bet. But this is simply one of the scenarios when a person just get lucky at the right time.

[Davidvictorson]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

It don't think that this was totally insider trading. My reason is that, if anyone had analyzed the situation nearly it was obviously that at some point there was going to be a call tor a ceasefire that how all these conflicts plays out when it doesn't go as predicted.it is not always insider trading.

[bhadz]

Is this not another insider trading?

It is, with how much they bet, the timing of the bet and when they've made their accounts/wallets. That's the perfect timing that they'll ever have by having an idea that ceasefire is about to come. We are not mad at them, but I am sure that others are going to like them if somewhere out of nowhere they'll drop this insiders to some forums and it spreads all over. But that would cut the profiteering they're about to make because it will be exposed easily and it will be noticed by the community and Polymarket will have to remove it immediately. And as soon as they've made money, they're for sure going to withdraw it quickly.

[Cryptomultiplier]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

Not everything as a win and as concerns the predictions market is an insider trading. Afterall predictions about ceasefire is a surety that must come to be, because the war is causing a lot of global economic downturns and it may escalate further if care isn't taken.

The evolution of cryptocurrency is definitely taking advantage of this situation too, as the predictions market is growing, there has to offer course be winners at some point like this to encourage others to join, but I fear that the Polymarket may soon undergo strict regulatory policies to keep functioning and link all accounts to real owners.