Demand Destruction

[Furball808]

There is now an agreed ceasefire between Iran and US but is the war actually close to ending or are we being lulled into false safety in the meantime? In this ceasefire, contrary to what may be the expectations, people are busy. Nations are trying to secure oil supply. Traders are speculating whether this ceasefire will hold. Private companies may take this time to secure profits. Other countries may also try to negotiate with Trump and prolong this ceasefire. It's a very complex situation we are in and the recession is still looming over us.

What does actually the future look like if this crisis continues? Right now the oil supply is limited which is not proportionate to its demand, bumping up oil prices. But this goes on for too long and the demand will eventually drop. Not by choice, but by necessity. People will travel less. People will use energy less. All of that just to avoid having to pay so much for oil. What happens after that? The economy slows down. People start looking for alternative energy sources. Is demand destruction a good thing? Yes and no. Yes, because the prices will eventually go down if the demand slows as well. No, because slow economy means people will be losing their jobs as businesses cut down.

I am not trying to inflict fear but I am just thinking of how significant US's decisions are to the rest of the world. It's crazy that US has this much effect on the world. What we are experiencing now is something history books will be studying. The global economy will never be the same after this.

[_act_]

There is now an agreed ceasefire between Iran and US but is the war actually close to ending or are we being lulled into false safety in the meantime?

Nobody can know this question but it was China that made Iran to cease fire just few minutes of the threat that Trump made to about to happen. It is very possible that United States are only trying to play smart but let China know that they can have a better deal with Iran. Which could likely might have been the reason Iran accepted to start a peace deal meeting with United States in Pakistan.

People start looking for alternative energy source

Crude oil is still very important. The Europeans and the West in general has looked for alternative energy sources but this war let other people know that crude oil is still very important. It is what people are using. Expect this not to change over decades.

[Zlantann]

I am not trying to inflict fear but I am just thinking of how significant US's decisions are to the rest of the world. It's crazy that US has this much effect on the world. What we are experiencing now is something history books will be studying. The global economy will never be the same after this.

Donald Trump is unpredictable, so we don't know his next line of action. For now, nations would begin to scramble for suppliers because this ceasefire is very fragile. There is still a large number of US soldiers and weapons stationed in the Middle East. So the war can restart at any time. For now, countries will take advantage of these few days. They will start diversifying their supplier to other oil producing counties outside the Middle East.

The global oil and energy market will begin to readjust. But there will still be uncertainty until there is a permanent ceasefire.

[Mhizlove]

This kind of situation shows how the world economy connects, with little tension in one region can shakes prices everywhere around the world especially oil, with all this happening the markets and countries will always adjust over time and it can happen through alternative energy, policy changes and through new suppliers. We all know that it can only cause short term pressure, but again it's shows that the economy adapts so it's not time for us to fear but it's how businesses and countries will learn how to reduce dependence and just focus on finding balance

[Nightwatchmare]

Demand destruction has to do with a permanent decline in consumer demand for a product which is driven by sustained high price. Some of this aspects of demand destruction are triggered by prolonged period of excessive price. Another thing is behavioural shift, when consumers change their preferences by switching to substitute products. For example, buying electrical car because of high gas price.
Lastly, long term impact, the reduction in demand is permanent.

[Fortify]

There is now an agreed ceasefire between Iran and US but is the war actually close to ending or are we being lulled into false safety in the meantime? In this ceasefire, contrary to what may be the expectations, people are busy. Nations are trying to secure oil supply. Traders are speculating whether this ceasefire will hold. Private companies may take this time to secure profits. Other countries may also try to negotiate with Trump and prolong this ceasefire. It's a very complex situation we are in and the recession is still looming over us.

What does actually the future look like if this crisis continues? Right now the oil supply is limited which is not proportionate to its demand, bumping up oil prices. But this goes on for too long and the demand will eventually drop. Not by choice, but by necessity. People will travel less. People will use energy less. All of that just to avoid having to pay so much for oil. What happens after that? The economy slows down. People start looking for alternative energy sources. Is demand destruction a good thing? Yes and no. Yes, because the prices will eventually go down if the demand slows as well. No, because slow economy means people will be losing their jobs as businesses cut down.

I am not trying to inflict fear but I am just thinking of how significant US's decisions are to the rest of the world. It's crazy that US has this much effect on the world. What we are experiencing now is something history books will be studying. The global economy will never be the same after this.

We're in a very volatile moment right now, but the thing is.. Israel has been trying for years to lure the American military into the region against Iran and now they've achieved it. Trump is a puppet being manipulated by Netanyahu to give him cover for yet more illegal land grabs in Lebanon. Israel is trying to expand their land all the time and often instigating fights against their neighbors to do so. Iran doesn't help the situation either quite frankly, by stirring up problems and having such a repressive religious government, frankly if both of these countries wiped each other out the world might be a safer place. I feel for all the innocent people, who don't want war and don't support these extreme leaders in power, but they are trapped by the geography of where they were born.

[abhiseshakana]

We're in a very volatile moment right now, but the thing is.. Israel has been trying for years to lure the American military into the region against Iran and now they've achieved it. Trump is a puppet being manipulated by Netanyahu to give him cover for yet more illegal land grabs in Lebanon. Israel is trying to expand their land all the time and often instigating fights against their neighbors to do so. Iran doesn't help the situation either quite frankly, by stirring up problems and having such a repressive religious government, frankly if both of these countries wiped each other out the world might be a safer place. I feel for all the innocent people, who don't want war and don't support these extreme leaders in power, but they are trapped by the geography of where they were born.

I believed that every stated decision based on geopolitical interest and national security but i remembered moslem believe, middle east will be the center of conflict in the end of times. There are narrative that is widely discussed in my country is that Israel will be more brutal because many signal show that Israel's collapse is imminent. I am not discussing the truth of the narrative but the effect of the end times narrative on the conflict in the Middle East.Fear of destruction or loss of existence create a survive at all costs policy for many nations, even perceived threats can drive defensive action which apprear aggresive. These narrative intensify the tension become mor emotional, difficult to compromise and every party see it as somehing inevitable. When someone see conflict as fate, how we can stop it.

[sfjordhalvson]

A ceasefire might look like relief, but underneath it, everyones still scrambling countries securing oil, traders speculating, companies trying to lock in profits. Its like a calm before the storm. If this keeps going demand and destruction is real, people travel less, use less energy, just to cope with high prices. Sure, price might drop eventually, but the slowdown hits jobs and businesses hard.

The US really does have crazy influence over the global economy, and every move echoes everywhere. Honestly were probably seeing a moment that history. books will talk about, but for now, its all about watching how demand and supply shift and how people adapt.

[YOSHIE]

I am not trying to inflict fear but I am just thinking of how significant US's decisions are to the rest of the world. It's crazy that US has this much effect on the world. What we are experiencing now is something history books will be studying. The global economy will never be the same after this.

From history we can see, in terms of the world economy I am more afraid of Iran than the US, where the US has no role or access to blockade the world economy, the US from century to century has only relied on military power and dollars.

But today's Persia, Iran, has been feared from century to century, Rome, Greece, etc., economic collapse and war in the hands of Persia/Iran, they have an access blockade that shuts down the global economy, the world's main economic and trade power is Iran.

Significantly in my view the impact of the US and Iran war is not dangerous for the US, in fact Iran is more dangerous for the world economy, they have mines in the Strait of Hormuz which paralyze all sectors of the world economy, global oil and inflation or other sectors such as disasters and disruptions to global energy supplies, if that happens the global economy is paralyzed, Asia, Europe, Rome, Greece die.

[Coyster]

Significantly in my view the impact of the US and Iran war is not dangerous for the US, in fact Iran is more dangerous for the world economy, they have mines in the Strait of Hormuz which paralyze all sectors of the world economy, global oil and inflation or other sectors such as disasters and disruptions to global energy supplies, if that happens the global economy is paralyzed, Asia, Europe, Rome, Greece die.

That's the basics of geopolitics. The Strait of Hormuz gives the Iranians huge leverage in times of conflict and international negotiations. The geographical location of the Strait is to their advantage and they don't fail to play that card whenever they need to, because blocking the Strait disrupts the global oil supply and the effect is massive for the entire world.

That said, it definitely makes them dangerous, but maybe you exaggerate it a little bit. Despite that geographical advantage, more powerful nations like the United States could hit them so hard in other areas where it'd hurt and effectively force them to open the Strait. So because of their huge military advantage, i think that makes them more dangerous.

[aylabadia05]

<snip>

I am not trying to inflict fear but I am just thinking of how significant US's decisions are to the rest of the world. It's crazy that US has this much effect on the world. What we are experiencing now is something history books will be studying. The global economy will never be the same after this.

Many people are working together to avoid fear in the current situation, but the reality is that crude oil remains crucial.
The US is attempting to gain influence in the Middle East, but Iran is different from other Arab countries. Iran refuses to submit and surrender to America.

On the ground, what can be seen, through reliable media, is that Iran is not backing down because it recognizes its sovereignty as a sovereign nation. This has led to Trump receiving tremendous criticism, including from its own people.
NATO members are also reluctant to comply with Trump's demands regarding the escalation of the war in Iran. NATO countries are aware that Trump's actions are not in the interests of the American people or the world, but rather his personal and group interests.

[Cookdata]

What does actually the future look like if this crisis continues? Right now the oil supply is limited which is not proportionate to its demand, bumping up oil prices. But this goes on for too long and the demand will eventually drop. Not by choice, but by necessity. People will travel less. People will use energy less. All of that just to avoid having to pay so much for oil. What happens after that? The economy slows down. People start looking for alternative energy sources. Is demand destruction a good thing? Yes and no. Yes, because the prices will eventually go down if the demand slows as well. No, because slow economy means people will be losing their jobs as businesses cut down.

I am not trying to inflict fear but I am just thinking of how significant US's decisions are to the rest of the world. It's crazy that US has this much effect on the world. What we are experiencing now is something history books will be studying. The global economy will never be the same after this.

I hate the united state government but I don't hate united state when it come to economic interest. Why do you think countries refused to leave US despite the tarrif fight, it's because they need the US more than they need the Donald Trump. He is just a guy that will not be there forever, anytime he make economic sanctions like increase in tariff and others, they stay, endure until he leaves the office, he will not be there forever, the US is very important.

The US are good in playing world economy, they may not need you but they make sure you want them by all cost. Even the countries that claim not to want them, it's because they don't have choice and when you check their economy, it's always obvious one or two things that are lacking. I just hope this regime stop find a common ground and end this chaos. There is noting gain in war, I was watching what happened in Lebanon on Al Jazeera and I was speechless.