How do you understand the odds in sports betting?

[Botnake]

There are really only 2 simple ways to look at it.

1. How likely they think something is to happen, not fixed of course
2. How much they will pay you if you win, and this is the part most people notice first

At first, I only understood the second one, which is the payout. That was the easiest part for me to get. I also find decimal odds much easier to understand compared to American odds like -110, which is what you usually see in big US sportsbooks, well obviously because they use the American format there.

But after some time I started noticing that odds are not only about the payout multiplier. They also show the implied probability, or at least the bookmaker’s view of the probability with their margin included.

So now I’m curious how other people look at it.

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

[stompix]

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

Never gets old:
Odds and chances differences, let's close this damn debate forever!!!!

Odds don't represent chances, if
- 2up offers 3x for Madrid to win
- Stake offers 2.8x for Madrid to win
What are the chances for the team to win? 

People always want to translate things in math they understand this is why they think of chances, in reality odds have nothing to do with that, it's just raw calculation on the money bet on each team, some billioanre dumping 100 million on Manchester United to win the PL and dumping so the odds from 1000:1 to 50:1 doesn't mean that suddenly they are more chances for them to win out of the blue.

[_act_]

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

Seeing the odds already tells me what the probability of the club that I will choose would win is having, as it is lower odd is proportional to the probability of winning, but I still make sure that I make use of the past matches the clubs have played and their head-to-head to determine if I should bet on the club.

[fullfitlarry]

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

Seeing the odds already tells me what the probability of the club that I will choose would win is having, as it is lower odd is proportional to the probability of winning, but I still make sure that I make use of the past matches the clubs have played and their head-to-head to determine if I should bet on the club.

Yeah, definitely, we see what are the chances of that club to win.

And then we do our own analysis if there is value on it or maybe the book markers is wrong. And if we see that if something is not adding up specially if it is undervalue then we might see some ways to make money of that 'mistakes'.

[Wapfika]

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

Never gets old:
Odds and chances differences, let's close this damn debate forever!!!!

Odds don't represent chances, if
- 2up offers 3x for Madrid to win
- Stake offers 2.8x for Madrid to win
What are the chances for the team to win? 

People always want to translate things in math they understand this is why they think of chances, in reality odds have nothing to do with that, it's just raw calculation on the money bet on each team, some billioanre dumping 100 million on Manchester United to win the PL and dumping so the odds from 1000:1 to 50:1 doesn't mean that suddenly they are more chances for them to win out of the blue.

Calculating the real probability is indeed complex since it’s hard to put numbers on all the skills of each player to determine to theoretical outcome. I’m not certain about how NBA 2K give points to all players to measure their stats but maybe that grading system combined with game simulation using AI might help to get the theoretical winning probability.

But all this real probability often doesn’t display since bookie only show the actual odds that already incorporated the wager done on both side.

[Bitcoin.com97]

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

Seeing the odds already tells me what the probability of the club that I will choose would win is having, as it is lower odd is proportional to the probability of winning, but I still make sure that I make use of the past matches the clubs have played and their head-to-head to determine if I should bet on the club.

Same here , whenever the odd is lower I usually pick that club without minding their past performance, which has failed me in several occasions, so picking  the lower  odd most time don’t determine the possibility of winning , that is why they said the uncertainty in gambling is much , and winning is based on luck , because it will shock you to see that the lower odd may not score any goal and you will end up cutting down your expectations, I pay attention to both the payout and the possibility behind the odd even if it doesn’t come because of the uncertainty.

[KTChampions]

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

Never gets old:
Odds and chances differences, let's close this damn debate forever!!!!

Odds don't represent chances, if
~

This is a bold statement  
It is clear that bookmakers (and no one else) cannot determine the exact chances of a team (since each event is unique and non-calculable), but at least the odds reflect the bookmakers' opinion about the chances. And since bookmakers are incredibly good at "guessing" what the true chances are, we can say that the odds are related to the chances.
I understand the impact of cash flow on odds, but right now I think this factor has a weak influence, just one of many factors.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

So now I’m curious how other people look at it.

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

When I see the odds in sports betting, what I usually see first in the odds is the casino's view on who or which team they think will win the match, I usually will see this even before I see how much money will be paid to me if I choose between one of the team and place my net on them..

From the odds of a game, we can all the time understand and know when we are betting in agreement with even sportsbook, or in disagreement with them.
If one bets in agreement with the sportsbooks and ends up winning, sometimes, reward will be high and sometimes low, it depends on the total of the team the bet was placed in..
But on the flip side, if one bets in disagreement with the sportsbook and ends up winning, reward is usually high, though its still depend on the odds of the team the bet was placed on, but the reward is usually higher than when we bet in agreement with the casino.

[joeperry]

I look at it as who would more likely to win, for someone who are not really into football, I sometimes rely on the odds and thinking like that actually has an edge since there are times that the odds were high and if you are going to check the H2H and previous matches you see that they always win and most of the time that actually works, I can say that 70% of the time that's a winning game so that's the first thing I look at football matches but of course I know that there are times where star players are not present or injured or there's new roster for both team, etc.

[danherbias07]

One of the reasons I don't go beyond x2.00 above is this. Unless I am super sure that a team can win, or I am super ready for that risk because I followed the team and they are just being underestimated.

Odds can sometimes be wrong, and in my opinion, the oddmakers sometimes overlook the momentum of a team or a player. Also, they always rely on stats and records, not on instincts or the love for the game. It's all about numbers for them.
After looking at my own betting history, which is mostly composed of x1.85 below. I was actually on a green. Still, this ain't assurance. There will always be a time when we could get it wrong, even on a high odds bet.

[Darker45]

I see both. Whenever I see odds, the payout and the probability come to mind immediately. They're correlated. They reflect each other. The higher the odds, at least in terms of decimal, the lower the probability of it happening. Hence, the higher payout. It can't happen that the odds are high, again in decimal at least, yet the payout is low, or the payout is low yet the team or player is the heavy underdog, or the odds are low yet the probability of it happening is low.

Odds don't represent chances, if
- 2up offers 3x for Madrid to win
- Stake offers 2.8x for Madrid to win
What are the chances for the team to win? 

If you convert those odds into percentage form, it would be 33.3% and 35.7%, respectively. In a way, we could say those are their chances of winning, at least as far as the bets or the analyses of the bookmakers that released them are concerned.

[freedomgo]

If you convert those odds into percentage form, it would be 33.3% and 35.7%, respectively. In a way, we could say those are their chances of winning, at least as far as the bets or the analyses of the bookmakers that released them are concerned.

we can easily use a calculator for that.. ( https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

However, sometimes the odds do not really reflect the true probability. I think this was already discussed before, the difference between implied probability and true probability.

So regardless of the odds, if we are able to find the value, that’s where we should take the risk.
Maybe with that, we can actually be profitable in the long run.

[rbynxx]

There are really only 2 simple ways to look at it.

1. How likely they think something is to happen, not fixed of course
2. How much they will pay you if you win, and this is the part most people notice first

At first, I only understood the second one, which is the payout. That was the easiest part for me to get. I also find decimal odds much easier to understand compared to American odds like -110, which is what you usually see in big US sportsbooks, well obviously because they use the American format there.

But after some time I started noticing that odds are not only about the payout multiplier. They also show the implied probability, or at least the bookmaker’s view of the probability with their margin included.

So now I’m curious how other people look at it.

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

1. No one, it's all just some prediction. You either be right or wrong, that's the only logical answer but if the house wins they got all the piece but if you win the favorable odds will only get most of the piece, not whole.
2. Well, depends on the odds you bet on.

Nah, low might be favorable but it doesn't mean it's gonna hit, some of the time a player or a team doesn't think about your bet, they play on whatever they do or what is being instructed depending on the game plan.

[Findingnemo]

Most casinos uses the decimal odds not the American format when it comes to crypto casinos but those are same the potential payout if you win and you can understand it pretty quickly.

About the other part, 'odds are not just payout multiplier but implied probability of winning' which I don't think the case at the end of the results. It keeps changing every moment depends on many factors and only they know what are the criteria they use for calculation so don't get fooled by the odds alone it can go wrong too.

[348Judah]

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

Setting up the games will be the first thing to do once you have your preference to which game to include in your betting slip, especially for those that like playing parley, after we must have done this, then comes the next step by viewing the odds we have accurued, and try to stake a particular amount in order to know what the potential winning rate is going to be before we complete the rest and submit our game.

[obuoma]

There are really only 2 simple ways to look at it.

1. How likely they think something is to happen, not fixed of course
2. How much they will pay you if you win, and this is the part most people notice first

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

I understand why you made this post because a lot of people read the odds in different ways, some even make their predictions using discrepancy in odds. Just like you mentioned, there is odd someone might expect in a match but if it is higher or lower than that, then it could be a signal that such match is underpriced or over priced which is a wonderful signal for people who know how to apply them.

I don't pay much attention to the odds, as a matter of fact, the odd is the last thing I look at before placing my bet. I worry about things like ensuring I go with the most probable option based on the current data for the team I want to bet.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

How I understand the odd is based on the purpose it serves to inform a bettor how much he or she is going to win if the bet goes in their favour, this is not based on the fact that the sportsbooks knows the outcome of a game but they attached those odds based on what their prediction says. The odds doesn't determine the chance of winning but bookie can give a game a high or low odd depending on what they feel would be the game outcome. That's why games with high odd can still be successful while a low odd can lose.

[o48o]

There are really only 2 simple ways to look at it.

1. How likely they think something is to happen, not fixed of course
2. How much they will pay you if you win, and this is the part most people notice first

At first, I only understood the second one, which is the payout. That was the easiest part for me to get. I also find decimal odds much easier to understand compared to American odds like -110, which is what you usually see in big US sportsbooks, well obviously because they use the American format there.

But after some time I started noticing that odds are not only about the payout multiplier. They also show the implied probability, or at least the bookmaker’s view of the probability with their margin included.

So now I’m curious how other people look at it.

When you see betting odds, do you mostly see the payout only, or do you also pay attention to the probability behind the odds?

I thought this was obvious common knowledge that bookmakers count those based on probability, so it didn't occur me to inform anyone about this.

Even if i struggle to believe that there are people who don't know about this, i am glad that you showed me that there might be, as knowledge is power and knowledge (at least basic knowledge) belongs to everyone. People need that powers to make informed decisions. Question is, what did you base your betting decisions before this and are you planning to change the way you do decisions now?

[Alphakilo]

The way I see it and have come to understand odds to my usage is that, they tell a story of what the house thinks could be the result of the match or game, while payouts is just the potential win if you can get your guess right.
That's why it is good to study stats and history of previous performance in order to decode what the house is saying and either bet in favor or against it.

The wise gambler would seek to check that the probability of odds being presented is quite fair in the first place before using the potential payout amount as a measure to know how much is worth the risk of your selection.

[Popkon6]

When I enter the gambling platform and am ready to bet, I look at the difference between the two teams. And it is easy to guess which team is more likely to win, and I do not bet on that team if there is an immediate bad score and the probability of winning. I look at the difference between the two teams and note that the game is being played at their home stadium, whether the full squad of players is correct. And I can also be sure about the performance of the team in the past matches (H2H) to bet on which team is most likely to win.