Are social predictions a real category or just a variation of prediction markets

[Cryptokobi]

I’ve been looking at the difference between traditional prediction markets and what I’d call social prediction platforms.

Prediction markets usually focus on the outcome itself. A social prediction platform seems more focused on participation, community reaction, live topics, and people coming back together to follow the result.

I’m building one project in this area called Vote To Earn, but I’m posting this more as a discussion than an advertisement.

The main question I’m interested in is whether predictions become more engaging when they are part of a social experience instead of only a market-style product.

A few things I’d like honest opinions on:
   1.   Do prediction products need a stronger community layer
   2.   Would live picks and non-financial predictions make the category bigger
   3.   Do people here see social prediction as a separate category from prediction markets

Project for reference: https://www.votetoearn.net/

Would be interested to hear serious views from people who already use prediction platforms.

[hugeblack]

Prediction markets usually focus on the outcome itself. A social prediction platform seems more focused on participation, community reaction, live topics, and people coming back together to follow the result.

Therefore, the accuracy of these predictions can be affected by community interaction, and consequently, the results of these predictions will be worse because they are linked to a factor unrelated to the price/market direction.

[SensitiveEyes]

I’ve been looking at the difference between traditional prediction markets and what I’d call social prediction platforms.

Prediction markets usually focus on the outcome itself. A social prediction platform seems more focused on participation, community reaction, live topics, and people coming back together to follow the result.

I’m building one project in this area called Vote To Earn, but I’m posting this more as a discussion than an advertisement.

The main question I’m interested in is whether predictions become more engaging when they are part of a social experience instead of only a market-style product.

A few things I’d like honest opinions on:
   1.   Do prediction products need a stronger community layer
   2.   Would live picks and non-financial predictions make the category bigger
   3.   Do people here see social prediction as a separate category from prediction markets

Project for reference: https://www.votetoearn.net/

Would be interested to hear serious views from people who already use prediction platforms.

Announcements on market predictions will generate community interactions. If the community is told about the predictions they will affect the outcomes by making decisions. The accuracy of the predictions is worthless after community interactions because they change the markets trends. Do you work for Vote To Earn?

[BattleDog]

I'd say it is mostly a variation, not a brand-new species. The second you put money, points, or any other stake on an outcome, you're still in prediction-market territory. Wrapping it in chat, reactions, live rooms, leaderboards and tribal chest-thumping makes it more entertaining, but entertainment and category are not the same thing. A casino can add a DJ and neon fog eye-candy, but it is still a casino.

That said, the social layer absolutely can make it bigger, just not necessarily better at prediction. Those are two different jobs and people love pretending they're the same. If the goal is accuracy, too much community influence can turn the whole thing into sentiment karaoke. If the goal is retention, recurring engagement, and getting people to come back even when they are not placing serious size, then the social angle helps a lot. Non-financial picks can also widen the funnel because most people would rather argue about sports, politics, streamers, game launches and random public drama than sit around pricing probabilities like a tiny hedge fund.

So yes, useful product angle, but I wouldn't try to sell it as some totally separate invention. Feels more honest to call it a social-first prediction platform than to pretend prediction markets woke up with a brand-new skeleton.

[Cryptokobi]

I’ve been looking at the difference between traditional prediction markets and what I’d call social prediction platforms.

Prediction markets usually focus on the outcome itself. A social prediction platform seems more focused on participation, community reaction, live topics, and people coming back together to follow the result.

I’m building one project in this area called Vote To Earn, but I’m posting this more as a discussion than an advertisement.

The main question I’m interested in is whether predictions become more engaging when they are part of a social experience instead of only a market-style product.

A few things I’d like honest opinions on:
   1.   Do prediction products need a stronger community layer
   2.   Would live picks and non-financial predictions make the category bigger
   3.   Do people here see social prediction as a separate category from prediction markets

Project for reference: https://www.votetoearn.net/

Would be interested to hear serious views from people who already use prediction platforms.

Announcements on market predictions will generate community interactions. If the community is told about the predictions they will affect the outcomes by making decisions. The accuracy of the predictions is worthless after community interactions because they change the markets trends. Do you work for Vote To Earn?

NO

[Cryptokobi]

I’ve been looking at the difference between traditional prediction markets and what I’d call social prediction platforms.

Prediction markets usually focus on the outcome itself. A social prediction platform seems more focused on participation, community reaction, live topics, and people coming back together to follow the result.

I’m building one project in this area called Vote To Earn, but I’m posting this more as a discussion than an advertisement.

The main question I’m interested in is whether predictions become more engaging when they are part of a social experience instead of only a market-style product.

A few things I’d like honest opinions on:
   1.   Do prediction products need a stronger community layer
   2.   Would live picks and non-financial predictions make the category bigger
   3.   Do people here see social prediction as a separate category from prediction markets

Project for reference: https://www.votetoearn.net/

Would be interested to hear serious views from people who already use prediction platforms.

Don't over complicate things its the new social media with the same content and you get rewards

[Mhizlove]

Prediction markets usually focus on the outcome itself. A social prediction platform seems more focused on participation, community reaction, live topics, and people coming back together to follow the result.

Therefore, the accuracy of these predictions can be affected by community interaction, and consequently, the results of these predictions will be worse because they are linked to a factor unrelated to the price/market direction.

True because when alot of people are being influenced,the prediction will move from clear thinking to going after crowd. Instead we should reason based on market direction or fact, then we start to vote base on what others do say, from the trend and hype this can reduce the accuracy because of the growth pressure and emotions that has just involved. So you see if social interactions is not well balanced I can damage the quality of prediction instead of improving the quality

[akamit]

I'd say it is mostly a variation, not a brand-new species. The second you put money, points, or any other stake on an outcome, you're still in prediction-market territory. Wrapping it in chat, reactions, live rooms, leaderboards and tribal chest-thumping makes it more entertaining, but entertainment and category are not the same thing. A casino can add a DJ and neon fog eye-candy, but it is still a casino.

That said, the social layer absolutely can make it bigger, just not necessarily better at prediction. Those are two different jobs and people love pretending they're the same. If the goal is accuracy, too much community influence can turn the whole thing into sentiment karaoke. If the goal is retention, recurring engagement, and getting people to come back even when they are not placing serious size, then the social angle helps a lot. Non-financial picks can also widen the funnel because most people would rather argue about sports, politics, streamers, game launches and random public drama than sit around pricing probabilities like a tiny hedge fund.

So yes, useful product angle, but I wouldn't try to sell it as some totally separate invention. Feels more honest to call it a social-first prediction platform than to pretend prediction markets woke up with a brand-new skeleton.

BattleDog said it well, it's still a variation.

What I think nobody mentioned is that prediction markets already have a crowd problem. Most people don't research, they just follow whoever sounds sure of themselves. Social features make that worse not better, more people copying each other means worse predictions overall.

But honestly that might not even matter for what you're building. The "watching the result together" feeling is a completely different thing from accuracy. Sports apps understood this long time ago. People come back not just to win but to be there when it happens with others.

Non financial stuff is where I'd focus. Cricket fans, football fans, reality show viewers, these people argue about outcomes all day for free. Give them a reason to do it on your platform and you don't need to compete with polymarket at all.

[Cryptokobi]

I'd say it is mostly a variation, not a brand-new species. The second you put money, points, or any other stake on an outcome, you're still in prediction-market territory. Wrapping it in chat, reactions, live rooms, leaderboards and tribal chest-thumping makes it more entertaining, but entertainment and category are not the same thing. A casino can add a DJ and neon fog eye-candy, but it is still a casino.

That said, the social layer absolutely can make it bigger, just not necessarily better at prediction. Those are two different jobs and people love pretending they're the same. If the goal is accuracy, too much community influence can turn the whole thing into sentiment karaoke. If the goal is retention, recurring engagement, and getting people to come back even when they are not placing serious size, then the social angle helps a lot. Non-financial picks can also widen the funnel because most people would rather argue about sports, politics, streamers, game launches and random public drama than sit around pricing probabilities like a tiny hedge fund.

So yes, useful product angle, but I wouldn't try to sell it as some totally separate invention. Feels more honest to call it a social-first prediction platform than to pretend prediction markets woke up with a brand-new skeleton.

BattleDog said it well, it's still a variation.

What I think nobody mentioned is that prediction markets already have a crowd problem. Most people don't research, they just follow whoever sounds sure of themselves. Social features make that worse not better, more people copying each other means worse predictions overall.

But honestly that might not even matter for what you're building. The "watching the result together" feeling is a completely different thing from accuracy. Sports apps understood this long time ago. People come back not just to win but to be there when it happens with others.

Non financial stuff is where I'd focus. Cricket fans, football fans, reality show viewers, these people argue about outcomes all day for free. Give them a reason to do it on your platform and you don't need to compete with polymarket at all.

Its not only about predictions

[snowpega]

I have never acted upon the social media so-called influencer predictions because, for the majority of the time, they are just promoting the project with which they are affiliated. And other than this, in case they are not promoting the project, or they are not affiliated with the project directly or indirectly, then I always try my best to do my own research first because it's our money and loss and profit will also be our in any action of the market wheather in goes up or down.

This is my approach, and I will also recommend others for their safety, not to bear any loss in uncertainty or being trapped by FOMO. This is my point of view. DYOR! Other than this, I would love to know what guys do whenever you guys see bullish predictions on your social media feeds? Because what you guys will share with me may add to my knowledge.

[Cryptokobi]

I have never acted upon the social media so-called influencer predictions because, for the majority of the time, they are just promoting the project with which they are affiliated. And other than this, in case they are not promoting the project, or they are not affiliated with the project directly or indirectly, then I always try my best to do my own research first because it's our money and loss and profit will also be our in any action of the market wheather in goes up or down.

This is my approach, and I will also recommend others for their safety, not to bear any loss in uncertainty or being trapped by FOMO. This is my point of view. DYOR! Other than this, I would love to know what guys do whenever you guys see bullish predictions on your social media feeds? Because what you guys will share with me may add to my knowledge.

I think social predictions started as a variation of prediction markets, but the moment the product becomes community-first instead of trading-first, it begins to stand as its own category. Prediction markets are about pricing outcomes. Social predictions are about people engaging around outcomes.

[summonerrk]

I’ve been looking at the difference between traditional prediction markets and what I’d call social prediction platforms.

Prediction markets usually focus on the outcome itself. A social prediction platform seems more focused on participation, community reaction, live topics, and people coming back together to follow the result.

I’m building one project in this area called Vote To Earn, but I’m posting this more as a discussion than an advertisement.

The main question I’m interested in is whether predictions become more engaging when they are part of a social experience instead of only a market-style product.

A few things I’d like honest opinions on:
   1.   Do prediction products need a stronger community layer
   2.   Would live picks and non-financial predictions make the category bigger
   3.   Do people here see social prediction as a separate category from prediction markets

Project for reference: https://www.votetoearn.net/

Would be interested to hear serious views from people who already use prediction platforms.

It's amazing, but somehow Polymarket managed to convince everyone that betting is fun, and I can even guess what's behind the widespread betting phenomenon now. Word of mouth works – if someone in a group of friends places a bet, they'll tell their friends about it, and no one will say they're stupid or obsessed with betting, because modern prediction markets don't include sports, politics, or anything like that, so the barrier to entry is extremely wide and low. Everyone has their own opinion, and it's easy for them to bet a bunch of dollars just to have fun.

[SensitiveEyes]

Announcements on market predictions will generate community interactions. If the community is told about the predictions they will affect the outcomes by making decisions. The accuracy of the predictions is worthless after community interactions because they change the markets trends. Do you work for Vote To Earn?

NO

Do you agree the community will affect outcomes if they are told about the predictions. The community will affect outcomes with decisions they make. Any accuracy of predictions is questioned after community interactions because it changes the way markets work. Tests are accurate if they are not told.

[slapper]

It is not a new category though. What you're talking about is a prediction market with improved user experience and social functions. Perhaps a good thing, because most prediction markets are like spreadsheets. But  we do not invent something.

So, as you ask, does taking the money out of prediction markets make a difference? Money plays two roles in prediction markets. It motivates honesty. It also bars people who cannot afford to lose money on their views. You're already screening for wealth and risk aversion and that's a problem.

Non-financial predictions could solve that problem. More participants, more opinions, potentially more information on some questions. But then you lose the honesty mechanism. Everyone will click whatever they feel like or what everyone else is doing because there's no downside to being wrong. That's a poll. We have polls, we know they're not very good at predicting.

So the design problem isn't "social vs market". The design challenge is to find a cost for being wrong that isn't money. Reputation maybe? Status within the community? Something that's painful enough to be a deterrent but not so painful it's inaccessible.

That is what I would do if I was creating this. Not on whether it's a new category or not. That's marketing stuff. On the incentive structure because that is everything.

[Cryptokobi]

It is not a new category though. What you're talking about is a prediction market with improved user experience and social functions. Perhaps a good thing, because most prediction markets are like spreadsheets. But  we do not invent something.

So, as you ask, does taking the money out of prediction markets make a difference? Money plays two roles in prediction markets. It motivates honesty. It also bars people who cannot afford to lose money on their views. You're already screening for wealth and risk aversion and that's a problem.

Non-financial predictions could solve that problem. More participants, more opinions, potentially more information on some questions. But then you lose the honesty mechanism. Everyone will click whatever they feel like or what everyone else is doing because there's no downside to being wrong. That's a poll. We have polls, we know they're not very good at predicting.

So the design problem isn't "social vs market". The design challenge is to find a cost for being wrong that isn't money. Reputation maybe? Status within the community? Something that's painful enough to be a deterrent but not so painful it's inaccessible.

That is what I would do if I was creating this. Not on whether it's a new category or not. That's marketing stuff. On the incentive structure because that is everything.

This one is Social media combined with prediction markets and here there are many topics to predict

[sunsilk]

I like your honestly for telling not more of an advertisement although it looks like that and others who like to discuss topics related to their service make it complicated even it's obvious what they want and that's about reach and exposure.

As for the community layer. I believe all service relies on its communities, when they have their own then it means leads which converts to sales or profits.

And that's why these products need a community that they can connect with who has the same interest with them as what they have developed.