Most bettors look at things very simply: Did I make money today? Yes. Then today was a successful day, and I did the right thing.
In my opinion, that’s not how you should look at things in betting. When you bet your money on something, you’re taking a risk. If you’re wondering whether you did the right thing, you should ask yourself whether that risk was one worth taking. Yes, maybe you made money today, but the bet that made you money wasn’t actually a bet worth taking, wasn’t a logical bet at all. Maybe you deviated from your strategies, or you bet more money than you normally would.
The same applies in the opposite situation. You may have ended the day in the red, but if you stuck to your strategies, and if the bet you placed is a logical one you’d make again if the same opportunity arose (and if you played with a reasonable amount of money for yourself) then being in the red doesn’t mean you did anything wrong. That’s the right approach, and just because you’re on the right track doesn’t mean everything will go perfectly.
In short, sometimes knowing that you’ve done the right thing is more important than making money.
I think we’re really talking about the philosophy of betting 😉
You have that “yes, but no” point of view. Let’s get to the heart of it—the “but”: the long term. That’s where you need a positive ROI, regardless of whether things go well or poorly in the short run.
Following your idea, OP, in traditional casino games, since variance depends on the type of game you’re playing, risk becomes the measure of that outcome. And if you approach it in a structured way, your losses might stay close to break-even—or you might even turn a profit.
That said, betting in traditional casinos is still pure gambling, inherently dependent on chance—not on whether your reasoning is right or wrong, based on the idea you’re presenting. For example, a bankroll strategy helps you manage your spending properly, but it doesn’t directly influence the outcome of each bet.
In other words, there’s no strategy that isn’t ultimately trying to make money, whether directly or indirectly—it’s all tied to that goal.