Inflation is starting to feel real AGAIN everyone

[tatscfilho]

Yea evryone lately inflation has been creeping back into the conversation, and a big part of that is energy. In the US, consumer inflation hit 3.3% in March, while the energy index jumped 10.9% in a single month, and gasoline surged 21.2%, which shows how fast pressure can build when fuel starts moving higher.

What stands out to me is that this kind of move never stays only in oil or gas, it usually spills into transport, flights, groceries, and daily costs, so even if the story starts with global tension, regular people end up feeling it in their wallets. Fed official John Williams said this week that higher energy prices are already pushing up costs in areas like airfare, groceries, and fertilizer, and he expects inflation to stay above 3% in the near term.

You can see the same pressure building in Europe too, where annual inflation in the euro area rose to 2.6% in March, up from 1.9% in February, with energy posting the highest annual rate among the main categories.

That is also why central banks are in such a tough spot right now, because if energy keeps pushing prices up, cutting rates becomes harder, and if rates stay high for longer, growth can slow down even more. That is what makes this moment feel so important, it is not just about inflation coming back, it is about how one pressure point can end up affecting the whole economy.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

You can see the same pressure building in Europe too, where annual inflation in the euro area rose to 2.6% in March, up from 1.9% in February, with energy posting the highest annual rate among the main categories.

Well, yes, and I also think that people are increasingly realising just how manipulated the inflation figures are. Especially food prices. Whether in the supermarket or out and about, prices have risen by 50% in just a few years. Add to that the cost of houses, cars and most other things. But as the CPI is a basket of goods chosen by bureaucrats, inflation comes out at 2 or 3 per cent when it’s actually 10 per cent or higher. What usually counteracts the rise in prices are technology prices, which tend to fall, but you don’t buy a computer or a mobile phone every week, whereas you do buy food.

[Fortify]

It's only really this week that the last oil tankers from before the crisis have arrived at their destination. It's going to start getting a whole lot worse from now as the war drags on. Even if the pointless war were to end tomorrow, Israel has attacked a lot of the Iranian supply chain which means the oil they were sending to places like Asia and China will not start up again quickly. Even other countries like Saudi had to block up their wells because they ran out of storage space, which makes them hard to get going again. All this is going to have the effect of pushing the coats or everything up substantially as the world competes for less resources, with the richest countries usually able to absorb the higher prices more easily as the poorer countries suffer.

[tatscfilho]

Yeah, I get what you mean, and I think that's why this topic has a lot of impact. A lot of people don't care what the headline number says if their weekly costs keep climbing. Food, rent, cars, housing, insurance, all of that feels way more real than a broad inflation average. At the same time, I wouldn't say the number is always fake, but I do think it can feel incomplete. CPI is meant to measure a general average, not the pressure people feel in the areas that hurt most, and when essentials rise faster than everything else, people naturally feel like real inflation is much higher than the official figure. That's also why food matters so much in this conversation, because people buy food constantly. A drop in tech prices might look nice in a report, but it does not ease the pressure of groceries, fuel, or housing showing up week after week, so maybe the bigger issue is this, official inflation may describe the economy on paper, but lived inflation describes what people actually go through, and right now, that gap feels too big for a lot of people to ignore.

It's only really this week that the last oil tankers from before the crisis have arrived at their destination. It's going to start getting a whole lot worse from now as the war drags on. Even if the pointless war were to end tomorrow, Israel has attacked a lot of the Iranian supply chain which means the oil they were sending to places like Asia and China will not start up again quickly. Even other countries like Saudi had to block up their wells because they ran out of storage space, which makes them hard to get going again. All this is going to have the effect of pushing the coats or everything up substantially as the world competes for less resources, with the richest countries usually able to absorb the higher prices more easily as the poorer countries suffer.

Yeah, A lot of people look at the first shock and think the worst is already priced in, but supply problems usually hit harder with time, once older shipments clear out, the market has to deal with the real disruption, and that is when prices can start rising more sharply. When less oil is available, or when restarting supply takes time, richer countries can usually keep buying, while poorer countries get squeezed much faster. Fuel goes up, transport gets more expensive, food costs rise, and basic living becomes harder, especially in places that already have less room to absorb shocks, even if the war ended quickly, the after effects would not disappear overnight.

[viljy]

No wonder - prices are rising along the production chain, at the beginning of which is the price of energy. Energy is oil and gas. This is the explanation in its most simplified form. And then there are industries for which oil and gas are raw materials, not energy carriers. These are petrochemicals and, for example, fertilizer production. It is clear that prices for these products are also rising. In the case of fertilizers, this also causes an increase in prices for agricultural products. The rise in food prices is the most dangerous consequence of the US war against Iran. Of course, the rise in logistics prices also affects all prices, but people can live without some goods, but it is impossible to live without food.

[X-ray]

Inflation has always been on the higher side and only now that after the war people realized its been creeping up because oil price has been on the rise as clear as day.

Even before the Iran war the price has been going up uncontrollably especially around the time of the Covid-19 pandemic and has been getting worse ever since.

If you can't find any means of investing that could give you 5% APR at the very minimum you're cooked.

[davis196]

Yea evryone lately inflation has been creeping back into the conversation, and a big part of that is energy. In the US, consumer inflation hit 3.3% in March, while the energy index jumped 10.9% in a single month, and gasoline surged 21.2%, which shows how fast pressure can build when fuel starts moving higher.

I don't trust in statistics which are targeting the USA. The actual inflation in the USA is probably way higher than 3.3%.
If you feel, that the inflation is damaging your finances, just start spending and consuming less. I don't believe that the current inflation would be more damaging than the post-pandemic inflation, which occured back in 2021-2022. For me 2021-2022 was a crazy time and everything became so expensive. Prices of some goods went up 40-50% and I really hope that we don't see such inflation levels again.
The central banks have to tools at their disposal to try to push down the inflation level. There's no way for the central banks to control oil and gas prices. The only thing we can hope for is the USA and Iran to make a deal.

[Die_empty]

I don't trust in statistics which are targeting the USA. The actual inflation in the USA is probably way higher than 3.3%.
If you feel, that the inflation is damaging your finances, just start spending and consuming less. I don't believe that the current inflation would be more damaging than the post-pandemic inflation, which occured back in 2021-2022. For me 2021-2022 was a crazy time and everything became so expensive. Prices of some goods went up 40-50% and I really hope that we don't see such inflation levels again.
The central banks have to tools at their disposal to try to push down the inflation level. There's no way for the central banks to control oil and gas prices. The only thing we can hope for is the USA and Iran to make a deal.

The good part about the war in Iran is that it is affecting the economy of the US and Israel. Trump is pushing for interest rate cuts even when major policymakers are scared of the risks of higher inflation. This is why he wants Fed Chair Jerome Powell to leave office soon, so that he could have total control over a section of the government designed to be fully independent.

At this time of global economic shock, which is triggering inflation, most central banks would have to increase interest rates or leave it steady. The ceasefire is still in place and we are hoping for the end of the war. 

[snowpega]

<...>

There is no doubt that the rate of inflation is increasing and damaging the economies, and also hurting the people due to the rise in the cost of living around all edges of the globe. And what is the reason for this? We all know clearly and very well. The conflict between Iran and America disturbs the whole ecosystem. The US is putting pressure on Iran, and in response, Iran, for its safety and to answer to the US, is blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which, as a result, causes the rate of inflation to increase badly. This inflation rate is not only damaging the US alone, but a lot of countries are also being affected due to this. And, I wish such a war to be stopped soon.

Well, according to my best knowledge, this time chances are higher in this another negotiation, the outcome will be positive as Trump said that he will visit Islamabad, Pakistan, to have a talk with Iran. So, let's see where things move this time. I am hoping for the best because the pumping of all markets together is something good that is giving a little sign that there is something good that is going to happen, which has not been announced publicly yet. What do you think? DYOR!

[tabas]

A domino effect indeed, all industries uses energy regardless of whether they've got renewable or relies on oil, diesel or gasoline.

So, let's see where things move this time. I am hoping for the best because the pumping of all markets together is something good that is giving a little sign that there is something good that is going to happen, which has not been announced publicly yet. What do you think? DYOR!

That's what will happen if this talk will be a success. But I would think of it later and let's see how it will end up first and wishing the success for all of the people of the world because even with this peace talk, when both agrees. That looks like everyone is celebrating and already a success for everyone who's been badly affected by this war and crisis.