Bitcoin feels bigger than ever, but is it safe?

[tatscfilho]

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight again, but not just because the price keeps moving all over the place. What really makes this interesting is that big Wall Street names keep getting deeper into crypto. Goldman Sachs just filed for its first Bitcoin ETF product, which makes a lot of people think, “okay, this is getting more mainstream now, right?” But at the same time, Bitcoin was still down nearly 15% for the year in that same stretch, so it is not like institutional interest suddenly erased the risk.

And that is where the real discussion starts, because if major banks are stepping in, does that mean Bitcoin is becoming more legitimate, or does it just make the market look safer than it really is? The messy part is still there, regulation in the United States is still unclear, and Citigroup even cut its 12-month Bitcoin target after crypto legislation stalled. That is not some tiny warning sign, it is a pretty direct reminder that hype and uncertainty are still moving together.

So yeah, Bitcoin may look stronger now because the suits are finally showing up, but does that automatically make it a safer bet? Not really, it might just mean more people are entering the same volatile market, just wearing nicer clothes. That is what makes this worth debating right now, is Bitcoin actually maturing, or is it just getting better at looking stable while the same old risks are still sitting underneath it?

[AVE5]

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight again, but not just because the price keeps moving all over the place. What really makes this interesting is that big Wall Street names keep getting deeper into crypto. Goldman Sachs just filed for its first Bitcoin ETF product, which makes a lot of people think, “okay, this is getting more mainstream now, right?” But at the same time, Bitcoin was still down nearly 15% for the year in that same stretch, so it is not like institutional interest suddenly erased the risk.

And it can neither not be we the plebs or those who buys bitcoin with their discretionary incomes just as we normally advices for investors to stay unpanic and profitable in the long term as bitcoin serves as a store of value.
There's nothing anyone would tell me that I'll be convinced that it's not the attributes of the Institutions adoptions and aggressive buying of whalers that has prompted the rebound of price that's seemly so bullish.
Macroeconomic and political news may just be of the price manipulations according to analysts and speculations.

[Stalker22]

Look, Wall Street isnt here to save Bitcoin; they are just here to milk the fucking fees.  It doesnt matter if they are wearing suits or hoodies—the market is still a volatile shitshow, and the banks will be the first ones to dump their bags the second things get ugly.

[JeffBrad12]

It is safer after the liquidity is getting deeper. Though the gain is also diminished, but so did the drawdown.
We are supposedly in bearish market yet the drawdown isn't that deep. It's the effect of bitcoin becoming mainstream that everything is getting diminished but is also a sign that bitcoin is matured.

No more rollercoaster volatility but just a normal drawdown. 15% is normal, such drawdown happened elsewhere such as to stock and other top tier assets. The risk is still there but it's getting lower and lower.

[Fiatless]

So yeah, Bitcoin may look stronger now because the suits are finally showing up, but does that automatically make it a safer bet? Not really, it might just mean more people are entering the same volatile market, just wearing nicer clothes. That is what makes this worth debating right now, is Bitcoin actually maturing, or is it just getting better at looking stable while the same old risks are still sitting underneath it?

Every organization that is showing interest in Bitcoin has reasons for that. And in most cases, profit is the main target. These top investors that offer Bitcoin ETF services are doing it for profit and not to make the industry less risky. The level of volatility has reduced as it is believed that Bitcoin as an asset is maturing. But this doesn't remove the fact that Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset. If you are not willing to hodl it for a long time, it might not be the best asset for you. 

[michellee]

Those popular people just want to make money from Bitcoin so they may have another agenda why they finally enter to Bitcoin. I see this could be a play for a big guy that have much money as they see that Bitcoin have the opportunities giving them big profits.

Bitcoin will not be a bet if you know how to using the money you can afford to lose if somehow Bitcoin disappear someday (which I guess that is not). But no one knows how long Bitcoin will exists so people should not be greedy chasing the profits. The problem comes when people becomes greed as they see Bitcoin can up and down any second and if they can use that, their profits will be bigger.

[Pandu Geddon]

is Bitcoin actually maturing, or is it just getting better at looking stable while the same old risks are still sitting underneath it?

Nothing matures, the risk is still the same. The market will remain volatile, they still see Bitcoin as an asset to make profits. Those who come to buy Bitcoin in large amounts, in fact, also want to leave with a larger amount in their pockets. There will always be hype and uncertainty in the market. It is wiser to be cautious when putting money into the market.

[SquallLeonhart]

The involvement or Wall Street and big firms and companies do nothing other than onboarding some more people and raising more awareness or probably increasing the adoption somehow, but that doesn't do anything with Bitcoin's safety or investment safety for the investors, Bitcoin is the same, it has been the same from the beginning, it's just that people are slowly realizing that they've been missing out, and they are now trying to waste no more time and get in as quickly as possible, and the same thing is happening among companies and firms, because they don't want to waste any more time.

Bitcoin is bigger, and it will keep getting bigger, because as I said, more companies will onboard, more people will start buying Bitcoin because they have now realized that they have missed a life-time opportunity by not buying Bitcoin earlier even when they knew about it, and this thing will keep happening now, the adoption will increase over time and so will the price of Bitcoin, this is exactly why we always predict that the price of Bitcoin will keep going higher in each cycle or bull run because we know that the adoption will keep rising over time.

[aoluain]

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight again, but not just because the price keeps moving all over the place. What really makes this interesting is that big Wall Street names keep getting deeper into crypto. Goldman Sachs just filed for its first Bitcoin ETF product, which makes a lot of people think, “okay, this is getting more mainstream now, right?” But at the same time, Bitcoin was still down nearly 15% for the year in that same stretch, so it is not like institutional interest suddenly erased the risk.

And that is where the real discussion starts, because if major banks are stepping in, does that mean Bitcoin is becoming more legitimate, or does it just make the market look safer than it really is? The messy part is still there, regulation in the United States is still unclear, and Citigroup even cut its 12-month Bitcoin target after crypto legislation stalled. That is not some tiny warning sign, it is a pretty direct reminder that hype and uncertainty are still moving together.

So yeah, Bitcoin may look stronger now because the suits are finally showing up, but does that automatically make it a safer bet? Not really, it might just mean more people are entering the same volatile market, just wearing nicer clothes. That is what makes this worth debating right now, is Bitcoin actually maturing, or is it just getting better at looking stable while the same old risks are still sitting underneath it?

As per the thread title - "is it safe?" if you anyone is asking this question 17 years into Bitcoins life
maybe they need to focus on something else because it sounds like they are susceptible to panic
and FUD.

Suits getting into Bitcoin kicked off when the Bitcoin spot ETF's were launched by the big finance
firms a couple of years ago so its nothing new.

Suits are not interested in Bitcoins development or the project itself per say, they are just interested
in profit and as long as they can work it that way they will stick around.

[jossiel]

Did the risk changed when someone new invests in Bitcoin? I don't think that it has changed, it's always been there, the same.

But the better part of it is that it has grown so much from several years ago to the current date. People asks if the risk is worth it or not.

We can imagine if the same question have been asked before and the years have passed and we see the byproduct of that.

[fuguebtc]

So yeah, Bitcoin may look stronger now because the suits are finally showing up, but does that automatically make it a safer bet? Not really, it might just mean more people are entering the same volatile market, just wearing nicer clothes. That is what makes this worth debating right now, is Bitcoin actually maturing, or is it just getting better at looking stable while the same old risks are still sitting underneath it?

Every organization that is showing interest in Bitcoin has reasons for that. And in most cases, profit is the main target. These top investors that offer Bitcoin ETF services are doing it for profit and not to make the industry less risky. The level of volatility has reduced as it is believed that Bitcoin as an asset is maturing. But this doesn't remove the fact that Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset. If you are not willing to hodl it for a long time, it might not be the best asset for you. 

Of course, WS and the ETFs participating in the market are solely aiming to make a profit. However, why did not they participate years ago and instead waited until now? It can be seen that they are not in a hurry and only participate when they have identified its potential. Therefore, the involvement of institutions partly shows that bitcoin has become significantly more secure than it once was

Regarding the volatility of Bitcoin. Any asset matures, its volatility tends to decrease, and Bitcoin is no exception.
Furthermore, I think Bitcoin volatility is not as high and frightening as it used to be, it is just that we are still haunted by the past. The volatility of Bitcoin today is similar to that of stock, gold, or oil.

[shinratensei_]

Did the risk changed when someone new invests in Bitcoin? I don't think that it has changed, it's always been there, the same.

But the better part of it is that it has grown so much from several years ago to the current date. People asks if the risk is worth it or not.

We can imagine if the same question have been asked before and the years have passed and we see the byproduct of that.

People don't even know what risk that makes bitcoin less safe if you asked. Some of the risks that we need to outline isn't solely the price but also the mining hashrate to keep the blockchain running. These two are all in good condition. If what OP means by safe is less risk of blockchain stopping because hashrate is high and the price has been stable so far because daily trading volume is high. I think bitcoin is already pretty safe.

No need to worry OP, bitcoin by all metrics have been going better and stronger compared to bitcoin a decade ago. The involvement of people with suits bring an impact, but even without them bitcoin has been growing steadily. Bitcoin keeps growing because it's deflationary and it's a tech that's needed by people in this digital age where everybody uses internet.

[Dave1]

So yeah, Bitcoin may look stronger now because the suits are finally showing up, but does that automatically make it a safer bet? Not really, it might just mean more people are entering the same volatile market, just wearing nicer clothes. That is what makes this worth debating right now, is Bitcoin actually maturing, or is it just getting better at looking stable while the same old risks are still sitting underneath it?

Every organization that is showing interest in Bitcoin has reasons for that. And in most cases, profit is the main target. These top investors that offer Bitcoin ETF services are doing it for profit and not to make the industry less risky. The level of volatility has reduced as it is believed that Bitcoin as an asset is maturing. But this doesn't remove the fact that Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset. If you are not willing to hodl it for a long time, it might not be the best asset for you. 

Of course, WS and the ETFs participating in the market are solely aiming to make a profit. However, why did not they participate years ago and instead waited until now? It can be seen that they are not in a hurry and only participate when they have identified its potential. Therefore, the involvement of institutions partly shows that bitcoin has become significantly more secure than it once was

It is obvious that in the beginning, there are a lot of doubts and questions on Bitcoin. Most of WS says it's fraud, but when the prices keeps going up every bull run, they can't ignore it already. And so big institutions started to invest and then comes ETF for everyone who don't want to complicate things and so hedge fund managers was the key for them.

Regarding the volatility of Bitcoin. Any asset matures, its volatility tends to decrease, and Bitcoin is no exception.
Furthermore, I think Bitcoin volatility is not as high and frightening as it used to be, it is just that we are still haunted by the past. The volatility of Bitcoin today is similar to that of stock, gold, or oil.

Still unstable for me, but yes, once it mature maybe we can see that it will decrease, but still though there are a lot of money to be made that's why everyone wanted to be inside the market and get that piece of sats in our wallet.

[knowngunman]

That is what makes this worth debating right now, is Bitcoin actually maturing, or is it just getting better at looking stable while the same old risks are still sitting underneath it?

Will there ever be a time when the risk associated with Bitcoin will vanish completely?

Of course, bitcoin is maturing in many visible ways but that old risk is still underneath but becoming low than before.

The reason is simple. Bitcoin at early stage was just a start up but now now it's like a public company that is more stable and audited but the fundamental risk is still there thou less visible than it was during the early days. When bitcoin goes up, the media hype begins and you see more buyers. Mind you, reverse is also possible when things goes sideways. Although it is unlikely to go -90% than let say 10 years ago but this doesn't mean it can not happen, it can.

[adultcrypto]

Will there ever be a time when the risk associated with Bitcoin will vanish completely?

Of course, bitcoin is maturing in many visible ways but that old risk is still underneath but becoming low than before.

The reason is simple. Bitcoin at early stage was just a start up but now now it's like a public company that is more stable and audited but the fundamental risk is still there thou less visible than it was during the early days. When bitcoin goes up, the media hype begins and you see more buyers. Mind you, reverse is also possible when things goes sideways. Although it is unlikely to go -90% than let say 10 years ago but this doesn't mean it can not happen, it can.

There is a popular saying that you will not lose money in bitcoin until you sell. This means that the risk to bitcoin is highly minimised when you hold because your 10 bitcoin will always be 10 bitcoin, no inflation or anything, what will change is only the dollar value. There are several advantages of chosing bitcoin which makes it preferable to fiat and the main one is the total control I have over my money. In my country, you are not allowed to withdraw certain amount of money per day and there is also a limit per week with countless monthly charges for just keeping money in the bank. This does not happen in bitcoin which makes bitcoin safer and more reliable for me.

[d5000]

But at the same time, Bitcoin was still down nearly 15% for the year in that same stretch, so it is not like institutional interest suddenly erased the risk.

What people sometimes forget is that the price of an asset like Bitcoin tends to exaggerate in both directions when FOMO and panic set in.

We could say for example that the fair price of Bitcoin is the average between a high and a low in a certain timeframe. So both the 125k high as perhaps also the 60k low were exaggerations. This "fair price" thus could sit currently between 80k and 100k, i.e. a little bit higher than the current 75-80k spot price.

(We should not use the common moving averages for that calculation though, because they tend to lag. It's not an easy formula. Rainbow chars are an attempt to do this but they tend to lag too. This is perhaps the best approach I've seen so far, even if it's already slightly outdated.)

If we take this fair price of ~90k as a starting point to evaluate crashes and FOMO spikes, the 60k does not look that scary anymore - it's a 35% crash. While the 125k in contrast is about 35% above that "fair price".

That means if people tried to buy below that fair price and sell above it, then it looks that they should be quite safe. At least this has been true until now.

And that is where the real discussion starts, because if major banks are stepping in, does that mean Bitcoin is becoming more legitimate, or does it just make the market look safer than it really is?

That depends on what you consider a "success scenario" for Bitcoin.

If your idea of success is that Bitcoin should become a major treasury asset for companies, then your cautiousness is understandable.

If you have however more the idea that Bitcoin should be a global money for saving and payments, driven more by "retailers" or common people, then there are other parameters to look at. It's impossible to know exactly the adoption rate and the number of BTC owners (including all derivative owners) but the current estimations already shed some light to the picture. A single digit percentage of the world population, but already well over 1% (with peaks over 10% in some countries like Argentina, El Salvador, and perhaps also the US), is said to own Bitcoin or some Bitcoin-pegged IOU. This is already a success, but means also that there is much room to grow still.

I personally consider also the Lindy effect important. The longer Bitcoin exists without disruptions, the safer you can consider it. Almost no country, besides of some very authoritarian governments, bans Bitcoin actually. Crypto legislation has advanced, even if there are some lags here and there. People get used to it, even if there is still half of the population skeptic or uninterested, but a growing minority has become pro-crypto. And the long term growth trend has not been broken (e.g. the 200 week SMA).

And of course there's the killer criterion for me: Bitcoin is the best attempt as a real digital succesor to cash, without the privacy problems of centralized solutions like Apple Pay, credit cards and PayPal.

[DanWalker]

Will there ever be a time when the risk associated with Bitcoin will vanish completely?

Of course, bitcoin is maturing in many visible ways but that old risk is still underneath but becoming low than before.

The reason is simple. Bitcoin at early stage was just a start up but now now it's like a public company that is more stable and audited but the fundamental risk is still there thou less visible than it was during the early days. When bitcoin goes up, the media hype begins and you see more buyers. Mind you, reverse is also possible when things goes sideways. Although it is unlikely to go -90% than let say 10 years ago but this doesn't mean it can not happen, it can.

Bitcoin is not a company. It has no CEO, no board of director and does not require auditing like businesses. Bitcoin is a decentralized, open-source monetary system that anyone can verify.
In terms of risk, everything carries inherent risk and without exception, whether its Bitcoin or an asset with a lifespan of thousands of years like gold.

Will Bitcoin ever vanish completely? That possibility still exists, but those are rare risks, and we dont need to worry about them.

[fullfitlarry]

Will there ever be a time when the risk associated with Bitcoin will vanish completely?

Of course, bitcoin is maturing in many visible ways but that old risk is still underneath but becoming low than before.

The reason is simple. Bitcoin at early stage was just a start up but now now it's like a public company that is more stable and audited but the fundamental risk is still there thou less visible than it was during the early days. When bitcoin goes up, the media hype begins and you see more buyers. Mind you, reverse is also possible when things goes sideways. Although it is unlikely to go -90% than let say 10 years ago but this doesn't mean it can not happen, it can.

Bitcoin is not a company. It has no CEO, no board of director and does not require auditing like businesses. Bitcoin is a decentralized, open-source monetary system that anyone can verify.
In terms of risk, everything carries inherent risk and without exception, whether its Bitcoin or an asset with a lifespan of thousands of years like gold.

Will Bitcoin ever vanish completely? That possibility still exists, but those are rare risks, and we dont need to worry about them.

As the saying goes, it's too big to fall. And as long as there are investors, it will continue to grow in the next coming halving. And the thing is that everyone is into it. Before it was just us, average joe investors.

Then comes Wall Street and other rich individuals and then institutions and government. So when this kind of entities invested onto something, it might be going to be huge and that will happen to Bitcoin. Although even if we don't need them, it's decentralized and no one can stop anyone putting huge money in the market so that we can reach all time high every cycle itself.

[knowngunman]

Bitcoin is not a company. It has no CEO, no board of director and does not require auditing like businesses. Bitcoin is a decentralized, open-source monetary system that anyone can verify.
In terms of risk, everything carries inherent risk and without exception, whether its Bitcoin or an asset with a lifespan of thousands of years like gold.

Will Bitcoin ever vanish completely? That possibility still exists, but those are rare risks, and we dont need to worry about them.

Perhaps, you're getting me wrong on this. When I say Bitcoin is like a public company, I wasn't referring to companies like Apple or others run by CEOs. Since the disappearance of Satoshi, bitcoin has no management team. Everything is being handled by code and nodes with no central authority.

Of course, anyone can verify it's transactions since inception because they're available on the blockchain and can not manipulate.

However, we are talking about Bitcoin maturity and level of risk here. I deliberately compared Bitcoin to public company based on how far we've come and the level of stability compared to olden days when it was just evolving. No matter how matured we think it is now, it does not take away the risk.

[danherbias07]

All the answers for that can only be decided by the buyer themself.

My answer is yes, it is safe. That's my own opinion, and I do believe others have theirs too. When it comes to those Wall Street institutions, we cannot deny the fact that they are buying not for support but only because of profits. Well, it can help gain value for Bitcoin because someone is buying, but we also have to consider the selling part, where Bitcoin will be dumped, and the value goes down.
I think they should not be added to our calculation if we are talking about value. Retail buyers, even one with an average salary who bought a fraction of Bitcoin and keeps it, that's where value is.