Why bear markets are less scary in each cycle

[d5000]

Bitcoin's volatility is declining and Bitcoin is slowly becoming a more stable and reliable asset.

But some observers (including me) have spotted a possible problem: It seems that mainly the bull markets are becoming weaker, while bear markets seem almost as harsh as ever.

For example, if we think 126k was the top of the last bull market, then this would be a 80% increase from the 2021 high (70k). The 2021 high, in contrast, had more than tripled the 2017 high of 20k. While the last bear markets fell consistently by more than 75%, compared with the previous ATH. (Well, if 60k hold in this cycle, then this bear would have significantly weaker with -53%.)

In other words: Upside volatility seems to decline faster than downside volatility. I have wondered if this is a warning sign. Could we get into a situation where it becomes harder and harder to reach an ATH, but we still every couple of years we see a ~70-80% crash? And could that make Bitcoin unattractive as an asset?

But I've thought again about it, and I found some reasons why it might be less of a problem than I thought initially.

Reason 1: Lows preserved an increasingly higher percentage of the ATH price.

The fall from high to low looks scary in all bear markets: The 2011 bear fell by 93% (32 to 2$), the 2014 bear by 88% (1200 to 135), the 2018 bear by 85% (20000 to 3000) and the 2022 bear by 77% (70000 to 15500).

But if we look the other way around we see: The 2011 low was only 7% of the high, but it increased to 12% (2014/15), 15% (2018) and 23% (2022). If we compare the percentages, it means a constant increase by more than 20% in each cycle, the 2018-2022 increase was strongest with an increase over 50%.

The crashes look far more scary due to psychology. And the next reason confirms that positive trend ...

Reason 2: The lows are increasing faster than the highs.

Also if we look at the evolution of the "cycle lows" we see an encouraging trend: $2 (2011) - $135 (2015) - $3000 (2018) - $15500 (2022). The 2022 low was more than 5 times higher than the 2018 low! The ATH to ATH comparison instead yielded lower values both for 2017-21 (3 times) and 2021-25 (1.8 times).

The result is quite bullish and surprising: Lows are increasing faster than the highs. This means also that if you invested close to the low, you always got a good profit even if you were so terribly unlucky to sell exactly at the next low. Good news for contrarian investors and dip fishers.

Reason 3: The last big crash in 2022 had specific reasons: Terra/Luna and FTX.

It is very likely that these two events triggered a lot of panic sales. Before Terra/Luna the low was at around $30000. That would have been a 55% crash, a notable improvement over the 80% crashes previously recorded. And after Terra/Luna but before FTX, the low was $20000. Still a noticeable improvement (70% crash). Only the FTX crash brought the depth close to 80% again.

Of course we can't roll back history, but it's nice to imagine that if Terra/Luna and FTX had better business practices, Bitcoin would already be an asset almost as stable as gold.


With all that being said, I still think Bitcoin could do even better. If the usage was less speculative and more about long term saving, the crashes would be even lighter. And we could approach gold volatility.

[sergiorus]

I don't know, this one has been really scary.
I mean the 10th of October 2025 was probably the scariest day i've ever witnessed in crypto, given that unlike with Covid global derisk or with FTX collapse, there wasn't literally ANY reason for that price action. Not as much for Bitcoin of course, but many even large altcoins went to 0 on Binance that day.

[NeuroticFish]

But some observers (including me) have spotted a possible problem: It seems that mainly the bull markets are becoming weaker, while bear markets seem almost as harsh as ever.

Are you sure?? Iirc the first crypto winter meant crash to some 1/8 from ATH, then some 1/5-1/6 and it kept getting significantly lighter. Now we're at 1/2 and I don't think it'll go lower than 1/3 from ATH.
Of course, if you think as drop from 120k to 60k or 40k is huge. But if you look at the percent it's... lighter.
Am I missing or miscalculated something?


On the other hand I agree that the trend is to get more stable, which is normal/expected on long term.

And could that make Bitcoin unattractive as an asset?

Since imho the crashes are also lighter, Bitcoin will become actually more attractive, since it's much easier to "store" and handle than e.g. gold and, unlike other assets, Bitcoin's scarcity is clearly provable.
If it becomes stable I expect people may also stop hoarding it and start using it also as currency (I mean at large scale, not just here and there).

[d5000]

Are you sure?? Iirc the first crypto winter meant crash to some 1/8 from ATH, then some 1/5-1/6 and it kept getting significantly lighter. Now we're at 1/2 and I don't think it'll go lower than 1/3 from ATH.

The observation is based on a comparison of the percentages of increasing and falling movements.

The reduction in increases looks, at a first glance, much stronger:

- 2011 low - 2013 high: 60000% ($2 -> $1200)
- 2015 low - 2017 high: 15000% ($135 -> $20000)
- 2018 low - 2021 high: 2200% ($3000 -> $69000)
- 2022 low - 2025 high: 700% ($15500 -> $126000)

We went from absolutely astronomic increases almost no asset (besides from pennystocks and perhaps tulips ) has seen before, to relatively mild bull markets not unlikely those on the stock market. The bear markets' volatility reduction looks quite tame if we only look at the bare percentages (~90% at the start, a bit less than ~80% in 2022).

I'm still not taking into account the current bear because wedon't know if we've seen the bottom.

To some people that looked scary in other threads. To me, to be honest, too - a bit at least, I think the Bitcoin long term growth could become much more bumpy if the bull markets continue to weaken while the crashes still go significantly under 50% of the high.

It seemed that the "speculation driven growth model" could hit a ceiling. The consequence would be: growth would only be possible with more real non-speculative and long-term adoption. But maybe we have some time still, the thoughts in the OP at least reflect that we still could have 2-3 strong speculation driven cycles.

I mean the 10th of October 2025 was probably the scariest day i've ever witnessed in crypto, given that unlike with Covid global derisk or with FTX collapse, there wasn't literally ANY reason for that price action.

Yes, such unpredictable crashes indeed are scary, but they typically only lose 10%-15% or so per day on very strong panic legs. I think the February 2026 crash was scarier even as the October 2025 crash. And there were much stronger crashes in the past (in 2013 for example there were several 50% crashes in a single day, and in 2017 I think there was a 30%-40% crash in a single day). Altcoins are indeed another story.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Great analysis, but I wouldn't have titled the thread that way.

But some observers (including me) have spotted a possible problem: It seems that mainly the bull markets are becoming weaker, while bear markets seem almost as harsh as ever.

I think I would have titled it "Why bull markets are less appealing in each cycle".

I think it’s more significant for us that bull markets are less exciting, with lower potential returns, and that bear markets are milder if the decline in potential returns is greater than the drop during a bear market.

In any case, this aligns with the sentiment that I—and I believe many others—share. The upside potential seems fairly limited, but the downside volatility, although it has also decreased, is greater than the potential for profit.

But I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that the trend could break, leading to a sharp price rise, as we’ve seen happen with gold, which is traditionally a low-volatility asset but saw a huge, unexpected surge last year.

[Karl_3000]

Reason 3: The last big crash in 2022 had specific reasons: Terra/Luna and FTX.

I do not totally agree with you.

Luna was crashing when bitcoin was falling significantly and later it crashed within hours from $119 to $0.000005. It was the bear market that let people know how shady Luna developers were.

I can still agree with you for FTX but bitcoin was already almost at $20000 but it went down to $15500 when FTX collapsed.

[sergiorus]

I mean the 10th of October 2025 was probably the scariest day i've ever witnessed in crypto, given that unlike with Covid global derisk or with FTX collapse, there wasn't literally ANY reason for that price action.

Yes, such unpredictable crashes indeed are scary, but they typically only lose 10%-15% or so per day on very strong panic legs. I think the February 2026 crash was scarier even as the October 2025 crash. And there were much stronger crashes in the past (in 2013 for example there were several 50% crashes in a single day, and in 2017 I think there was a 30%-40% crash in a single day). Altcoins are indeed another story.

Technically speaking, BTC chart doesn't look that bad on 10/10/2025 retrospectively.
However it was extremely scary because even though Bitcoin showed relative strength, the unprecedented speedrun of altcoins to zero made people think that Bitcoin was just being held by a big buy wall and once it's pulled and absorbed we would see the same kind of price action on BTC as well.
Fortunately that never happened, but the fear that was there is not captured on the chart.

[Smartprofit]

Are you sure?? Iirc the first crypto winter meant crash to some 1/8 from ATH, then some 1/5-1/6 and it kept getting significantly lighter. Now we're at 1/2 and I don't think it'll go lower than 1/3 from ATH.

The observation is based on a comparison of the percentages of increasing and falling movements.

The reduction in increases looks, at a first glance, much stronger:

- 2011 low - 2013 high: 60000% ($2 -> $1200)
- 2015 low - 2017 high: 15000% ($135 -> $20000)
- 2018 low - 2021 high: 2200% ($3000 -> $69000)
- 2022 low - 2025 high: 700% ($15500 -> $126000)

We went from absolutely astronomic increases almost no asset (besides from pennystocks and perhaps tulips ) has seen before, to relatively mild bull markets not unlikely those on the stock market. The bear markets' volatility reduction looks quite tame if we only look at the bare percentages (~90% at the start, a bit less than ~80% in 2022).

I'm still not taking into account the current bear because wedon't know if we've seen the bottom.

To some people that looked scary in other threads. To me, to be honest, too - a bit at least, I think the Bitcoin long term growth could become much more bumpy if the bull markets continue to weaken while the crashes still go significantly under 50% of the high.

It seemed that the "speculation driven growth model" could hit a ceiling. The consequence would be: growth would only be possible with more real non-speculative and long-term adoption. But maybe we have some time still, the thoughts in the OP at least reflect that we still could have 2-3 strong speculation driven cycles.

I mean the 10th of October 2025 was probably the scariest day i've ever witnessed in crypto, given that unlike with Covid global derisk or with FTX collapse, there wasn't literally ANY reason for that price action.

Yes, such unpredictable crashes indeed are scary, but they typically only lose 10%-15% or so per day on very strong panic legs. I think the February 2026 crash was scarier even as the October 2025 crash. And there were much stronger crashes in the past (in 2013 for example there were several 50% crashes in a single day, and in 2017 I think there was a 30%-40% crash in a single day). Altcoins are indeed another story.

Moreover, we don't even know if this is truly a bear market or if we're already in a bull market. 🙋

We saw a price low of around $59,000. Then the price consolidated above $60,000. Then above $70,000. Then the price seemed to consolidate above $75,000. Although it hasn't yet managed to break through the $80,000 mark... However, in my opinion, this event will happen soon!

In fact, $126,000 as a bull market high, in my opinion, this is not a very high price. This is confirmed by the situation with Bitcoin miners, who are currently suffering losses. In my opinion (of course, this is not financial advice), we will see a new all-time high for Bitcoin very soon... This will happen before the 2028 halving. Most likely, even in 2026. After all, a bull cycle can have multiple peaks, right?

At the same time, Bitcoin's price volatility has definitely decreased over time. In my opinion, this is because investing in Bitcoin is no longer as risky as it once was. And in business, the rule is: "The higher the risk, the higher the return. And vice versa."

[tabas]

Reason 2: The lows are increasing faster than the highs.

Also if we look at the evolution of the "cycle lows" we see an encouraging trend: $2 (2011) - $135 (2015) - $3000 (2018) - $15500 (2022). The 2022 low was more than 5 times higher than the 2018 low! The ATH to ATH comparison instead yielded lower values both for 2017-21 (3 times) and 2021-25 (1.8 times).

The result is quite bullish and surprising: Lows are increasing faster than the highs. This means also that if you invested close to the low, you always got a good profit even if you were so terribly unlucky to sell exactly at the next low. Good news for contrarian investors and dip fishers.

This is what I have also observed and if there will be friends of mine try to ask me if it's still worth it to buy bitcoin after all of these all time highs, this is a good comparison to show to them. Because looking at the lows, we're having better lows each cycle that passes by. Others might see it as something negative but they have to understand that each lows that we're having per cycle is actually better than the ones in the past. Soon, the high that we've got last 2026 will be just another low for the next cycles in the future.

[WillyAp]

Don't get hung up on Bear or Bull markets.
Bear market is the peacefully stagnation people love.
Bull markets please an euphoric crowd, they drum louder the higher it goes.
Risk for crypto is the amounts of the required nodes to run a Blockchain.
.

[Zaguru12]

Reason 3: The last big crash in 2022 had specific reasons: Terra/Luna and FTX.

I do not totally agree with you.

Luna was crashing when bitcoin was falling significantly and later it crashed within hours from $119 to $0.000005. It was the bear market that let people know how shady Luna developers were.

I can still agree with you for FTX but bitcoin was already almost at $20000 but it went down to $15500 when FTX collapsed.

Read the detail explanation again I don’t see what you’re disagreeing about, before the Luna crash in May 2022 bitcoin price was well above $30k which means that was a 50% crash from the then ATH but then it crashed to around $20k (70% crash from the ATH), which this period was regarded the most volatile period then. Then came the FTX crash in November then taking price to the lowest low of the year $15,500 (~80% drop).
What d5000 meant was without this two events there could be a high possibility that the drop wouldn’t be as low as 80% but might be around 60% drop, but both event disrupted the market sentiment then and I think that wasn’t undeniable.

This is what I have also observed and if there will be friends of mine try to ask me if it's still worth it to buy bitcoin after all of these all time highs, this is a good comparison to show to them. Because looking at the lows, we're having better lows each cycle that passes by. Others might see it as something negative but they have to understand that each lows that we're having per cycle is actually better than the ones in the past. Soon, the high that we've got last 2026 will be just another low for the next cycles in the future.

Exactly, the low is getting better. Take for instance, the ATH high after the 2017 bullish year was $19k and the Lowest low in 2022 was $15k meaning even if you have actually invested at higher price (2017 ATH) and held properly you would still be at a reasonable lower price. Same with $69k low too. Now we are at $75k plus which is higher than that. So technically holding for full cycle (4 years) means that there is higher probability that no matter the condition of the market the price might be higher than the lowest low in that period.

So while the best time to invest into bitcoin is yesterday, the next best time is today

[Karl_3000]

Reason 3: The last big crash in 2022 had specific reasons: Terra/Luna and FTX.

I do not totally agree with you.

Luna was crashing when bitcoin was falling significantly and later it crashed within hours from $119 to $0.000005. It was the bear market that let people know how shady Luna developers were.

I can still agree with you for FTX but bitcoin was already almost at $20000 but it went down to $15500 when FTX collapsed.

Read the detail explanation again I don’t see what you’re disagreeing about, before the Luna crash in May 2022 bitcoin price was well above $30k which means that was a 50% crash from the then ATH but then it crashed to around $20k (70% crash from the ATH), which this period was regarded the most volatile period then. Then came the FTX crash in November then taking price to the lowest low of the year $15,500 (~80% drop).
What d5000 meant was without this two events there could be a high possibility that the drop wouldn’t be as low as 80% but might be around 60% drop, but both event disrupted the market sentiment then and I think that wasn’t undeniable.

So while the best time to invest into bitcoin is yesterday, the next best time is today

You did not understand me.

Bitcoin did not fall because of Luna (now called Lunc) collapse, it was Lunc that collapsed because of bitcoin was falling. I was checking the market that time from time to time with minutes. That is the part I do not agree with.

If you think you are right we can start a topic about it. Lunc collapse make bitcoin fall is not a correct information.

But I know bitcoin fall but just a little during FTX collapse.

[logfiles]

The reason bear markets seem harsh are due to those Long position liquidations and triggering of stop losses on spot markets and long positions vs just short position stop losses and liquidations. That's why when the market is moving upwards, it takes a while to build up whereas when there is a crash, it seems to happen so quick and harsh.

Yes volatility has drop over time but have we taken time to think about the effect of stablecoins and also altcoin on how bitcoin now moves. Some of the traders now seem to be so invested in volatile altcoins rather than Bitcoin and stablecoins are also taking a big chuck of money inflow.
Remember back in the day, Bitcoin was the base currency for most trading pairs, which are not even commonly traded today. How many of you can get into an order book on Binance and start trading ETH/BTC or LTC/BTC 

[Zaguru12]

You did not understand me.

Bitcoin did not fall because of Luna (now called Lunc) collapse, it was Lunc that collapsed because of bitcoin was falling. I was checking the market that time from time to time with minutes. That is the part I do not agree with.

Not denying the fact that bitcoin bearish sentiment had influenced the lunar crash because it was this general bearish sentiment that caused the depegging of lunar stable coin UST (Terra US) which had caused more minting of lunar then to help the stable coin and eventually lead to the collapse.

But the collapse or crash after this depegging was highly volatile that it created more panic in the market and created FUD then which made most people to panicked and sold off more. Most probably without this secondary panic from lunar or even FTX the dump wouldn’t have been heavy

[EFS]

ATH wasn't as high as expected this time. A lot of people expected 170k and some even expected much higher. Similarly, the drop after the bull run was limited. Some people expected 30k, but the decline stopped around 60k (assuming it won't continue to drop).

Bitcoin doesn't seem to make the same high peaks and deep lows as before. But I'm not sure if this is permanent, because since ETF's came out it has become much easier to manipulate the price.

[Darker45]

Generally, I think it comes with the price. The higher it goes, the harder it is to multiply. But it also means the higher would the lows be, or the smaller the change be from the ATH to its succeeding correction's bottom.

Interestingly, it isn't scary if we look at it from this perspective and, of course, from the fact that Bitcoin always recovers and registers a new ATH eventually.

However, if we do away with percentages which, as presented, are getting better over time, and take a look at the numbers in USD, it's getting scarier and could even cause a little panic to some. In the most recent correction, the market only lost around 50% from the ATH, and that's a better figure. In USD, though, that's more than a trillion.

If we choose to present it from this perspective and emphasize the fiat value, many hands could weaken. Imagine the market losing more than a trillion in just a few months, in a blink of an eye. To somebody who's relatively new to this kind of market, that could be traumatic. That's even bigger than the combined market caps of the next top 5 cryptocurrencies in the wider crypto market.

[d5000]

Luna was crashing when bitcoin was falling significantly and later it crashed within hours from $119 to $0.000005. It was the bear market that let people know how shady Luna developers were.

Indeed, Bitcoin had already fallen to about 30000$ before the Terra/Luna debacle. And it's very likely that this bear market was one of the reasons for the UST collapse. But 30.000 would have been still a mild crash, less than 60%, compared with 80% before.

The Terra crash then accelerated the Bitcoin crash, above all after the project announced to sell BTC reserves to keep their UST token pegged. As far as I remember this was the final trigger to send Bitcoin from the 28-30k level to the 20k level where it first floored in July. So Terra/Luna was responsible for about 15 percentage points of the crash, with FTX adding 7-8 points more in late 2022 (calculated from the ~69k top).

I think I would have titled it "Why bull markets are less appealing in each cycle".

I indeed started from this assumption, but the framing of my title is different: Even if it looks that Bitcoin has become "less exciting", the "floor line" where accumulation happens, seems to be very strong and grows stronger than the tops would indicate.

In other words: The long term trend is more positive than the simple ATH to ATH comparison.

That results in still very good returns if you invest in the lower half of the price spectrum, but lower returns if you invest near the ATH.

Basically, on that observation, one would have to recommend people to invest when Bitcoin is trading lower than significant long term averages (> 1 year). Even if this of course is done by cyclists already, it would become more important than in earlier times when even if you invested in a FOMO phase at the end of the bull market you still made good returns, and bear markets became then attractive investment opportunities.

If thinking a bit more about it, it could make Bitcoin become even more stable, because it would look scarier actually to invest if the bull market already is some time in.

However, if we do away with percentages which, as presented, are getting better over time, and take a look at the numbers in USD, it's getting scarier and could even cause a little panic to some. In the most recent correction, the market only lost around 50% from the ATH, and that's a better figure. In USD, though, that's more than a trillion.

I somewhat find this idea interesting. But this trillion didn't disappear out of thin air, as it had just entered the market a year before or less. I think if someone panics because of these arithmetic questions, they should really think about more meaningful statistics. A trillion for example is only about 1.5% of the US stock market (~70T USD), so if the S&P 500 crashes 2%, it's likely more money is "burnt" than when Bitcoin crashes 50%

[Darker45]

~snip~

I somewhat find this idea interesting. But this trillion didn't disappear out of thin air, as it had just entered the market a year before or less. I think if someone panics because of these arithmetic questions, they should really think about more meaningful statistics. A trillion for example is only about 1.5% of the US stock market (~70T USD), so if the S&P 500 crashes 2%, it's likely more money is "burnt" than when Bitcoin crashes 50%

Well, would a newbie Bitcoin investor be put at ease by assuring him/her that the $1.2 trillion that Bitcoin lost in a matter of a few months is but a tiny amount in the US stock market? Would it make him/her realize that there's nothing to worry about, because the US stock market is a $70 trillion market when in the fact what's remaining in the Bitcoin market is just another $1.2 trillion?

But, yeah, I generally agree the correction was less scary this time around. Perhaps there was also a certain amount of luck involved considering that there was no shocking crypto event that would have specifically eroded confidence in the Bitcoin market. The correction was more or less anticipated and there was no dire aggravating factors like that of an FTX or Terra or ByBit scenario. There were only macroeconomic shocks primarily brought by Trump's tariff wars.

[Fortify]

Bitcoin's volatility is declining and Bitcoin is slowly becoming a more stable and reliable asset.

But some observers (including me) have spotted a possible problem: It seems that mainly the bull markets are becoming weaker, while bear markets seem almost as harsh as ever.

For example, if we think 126k was the top of the last bull market, then this would be a 80% increase from the 2021 high (70k). The 2021 high, in contrast, had more than tripled the 2017 high of 20k. While the last bear markets fell consistently by more than 75%, compared with the previous ATH. (Well, if 60k hold in this cycle, then this bear would have significantly weaker with -53%.)

In other words: Upside volatility seems to decline faster than downside volatility. I have wondered if this is a warning sign. Could we get into a situation where it becomes harder and harder to reach an ATH, but we still every couple of years we see a ~70-80% crash? And could that make Bitcoin unattractive as an asset?

But I've thought again about it, and I found some reasons why it might be less of a problem than I thought initially.

With all that being said, I still think Bitcoin could do even better. If the usage was less speculative and more about long term saving, the crashes would be even lighter. And we could approach gold volatility.

You seem to be missing the fact that it takes a lot more effort to keep on pushing upwards - it takes trillions more capital invested in order to see substantial upwards movements. Of course all time highs are going to be harder to keep raising the price. On the flip side to that - fear is a very powerful force, but it also gets combined with leverage in a dangerous mix which can unravel very quickly. Consider that cryptocurrency is going to stay as an exotic asset class for a while longer and they are always the first to go during periods of anxiety and panic. People want stability so they suck money out of their riskiest assets and move them into more solid ones like bonds. We should be happy that the volatility is decreasing because it's likely to bring more investment and retail traders in.

[avp2306]

Bitcoin's volatility is declining and Bitcoin is slowly becoming a more stable and reliable asset.

But some observers (including me) have spotted a possible problem: It seems that mainly the bull markets are becoming weaker, while bear markets seem almost as harsh as ever.

For example, if we think 126k was the top of the last bull market, then this would be a 80% increase from the 2021 high (70k). The 2021 high, in contrast, had more than tripled the 2017 high of 20k. While the last bear markets fell consistently by more than 75%, compared with the previous ATH. (Well, if 60k hold in this cycle, then this bear would have significantly weaker with -53%.)

In other words: Upside volatility seems to decline faster than downside volatility. I have wondered if this is a warning sign. Could we get into a situation where it becomes harder and harder to reach an ATH, but we still every couple of years we see a ~70-80% crash? And could that make Bitcoin unattractive as an asset?

But I've thought again about it, and I found some reasons why it might be less of a problem than I thought initially.

With all that being said, I still think Bitcoin could do even better. If the usage was less speculative and more about long term saving, the crashes would be even lighter. And we could approach gold volatility.

You seem to be missing the fact that it takes a lot more effort to keep on pushing upwards - it takes trillions more capital invested in order to see substantial upwards movements. Of course all time highs are going to be harder to keep raising the price. On the flip side to that - fear is a very powerful force, but it also gets combined with leverage in a dangerous mix which can unravel very quickly. Consider that cryptocurrency is going to stay as an exotic asset class for a while longer and they are always the first to go during periods of anxiety and panic. People want stability so they suck money out of their riskiest assets and move them into more solid ones like bonds. We should be happy that the volatility is decreasing because it's likely to bring more investment and retail traders in.

Yeah, this is what actually missed of since it needs lots of capital so that we can possibly see Bitcoin to go up for more and the fear experience by people when there's bearish season can make those hopes falls apart.

That's why there's some people says Bitcoin is speculative asset, since many people badly react and sell on panic when there's bad situations hit. But when the fear subsides and situation became calm this is good sign to accumulate.

This situation became likeable or attractive to those investors seeking for stability or want to start up fresh then tried to speculate that Bitcoin next move is going to up.