Is the Bitcoin situation a reflection of a four year cycle or a cause for war?

[vs2014]

I think if this war ends quickly the price of Bitcoin will reach a good position. Although, before the end of 2025 the price of Bitcoin was 126k dollars so will we see such a price change again? I look forward to your valuable opinions.

[Dunamisx]

Bitcoin market price does not have to depend on the ongoing war to reach a particular market price, the target is mainly on the season which occurs for the bull or the bear, currently as we have it, we are on the market fall and there could be more dip as time goes on, the war or any other incident only contributed to the rise of Fall of the market within a short period of time, which resulted as a sudden reaction will often see whenever there is an economic or political breaking news, but they are not a long-term effect on the market price.

[noorman0]

Bitcoin's situation is a reflection of supply and demand. Beyond that, global speculators are simply trying to create various timeless projections based on past patterns, geopolitical influences, and so on. In fact, there's no guarantee that the four-year cycle narrative will always be the baseline for market seasonal shifts, even though the halving fundamentally reduces new bitcoin supply.

[UchihaSarada]

I think if this war ends quickly the price of Bitcoin will reach a good position. Although, before the end of 2025 the price of Bitcoin was 126k dollars so will we see such a price change again? I look forward to your valuable opinions.

There will be the other wars if the war of USA and Iran ends, but I am doubtful that this war will end soon. Wars or without wars, I believe in Bitcoin market cycle and it's too early to expect a bear market completion in just a Q2 2026. I think the bear market will last at least one more year till Q2 2027 before something can change the market trend.

I really don't expect the bear market ends anytime in 2026 year but I don't try to beat the market or time the market. Base on history and Bitcoin market cycle, I can make my investment plan but I never try timing the market. I plan for my investment with DCA strategy so timing the market is not my task.

[liasbaa]

I think if this war ends quickly the price of Bitcoin will reach a good position. Although, before the end of 2025 the price of Bitcoin was 126k dollars so will we see such a price change again? I look forward to your valuable opinions.

If the war ends temporarily, the negative impact will last for several years. It may not be fair to assume that the price will change very quickly once the war ends. The price of Bitcoin fluctuates with the global economy, so the normal lives of people in the countries affected by the war are disrupted. Investors reduce their investments when they are financially stressed. Even if Bitcoin is currently showing a high trend, it may take a few more months to return to the bull run period.

An indefinite ceasefire is in place, and if a long peace agreement is reached soon, it will take some more time for a stable situation to emerge globally, and at that time we may see a bullish period and another ATH.

[passwordnow]

I think if this war ends quickly the price of Bitcoin will reach a good position. Although, before the end of 2025 the price of Bitcoin was 126k dollars so will we see such a price change again? I look forward to your valuable opinions.

We will see a price change if the good news comes and that's very possible. But to the point of changing the same of how high it did last year, we have no clue if that's going to be the same. And if that happens, then the idea of this bear market will create so much change from what is expected to happen is quite big. We shall see that but that war doesn't look will send us some good news lately.

[Frankolala]

There's time for everything since bitcoin price is moving in a circular way. We are in the bear market which is the reason we have alow price currently. With or without the war bitcoin will still be on this price because war has no much impact on bitcoin price. One thing is that we might not see a much dip in bitcoin price like we expected in this circle.

[BlackHatCoiner]

If it is not the four year cycle, we can confidently say it is a pretty good coincidence. Every four years Bitcoin goes to a bear market and crashes by 50%+. It's as if there's a pattern here.

Honestly, it could be both, but since we dropped to $100k and then gradually to $60k, it feels organic. Tourists just enter & leave Bitcoin at a particular schedule. Bitcoin went up in a global pandemic, but goes down on the Iranian war. It doesn't make much sense either. 

[Joy_learns_crypto]

I think if this war ends quickly the price of Bitcoin will reach a good position. Although, before the end of 2025 the price of Bitcoin was 126k dollars so will we see such a price change again? I look forward to your valuable opinions.

We will see bitcoin at $126k again yes that will happen but I don’t know when it will happen again, and if we see it again another war after the US and Iran can make the process reach a bad position. Although the US and Iran war is an economy based, the close of The strait of Hormuz is an economy wrecker I think any other war may not affect bitcoin like this one did.

[BitMaxz]

I rely more on technical analysis than fundamentals; I trust historical data, and the four-year cycle should be more important than just war news.

Based on the rainbow charts, $60k appears to be the bottom price, and I believe the market is attempting to retake the $80k level regardless of the news.
If the war is having an impact on Bitcoin, why is the price still rising? It should be dropping because war is bad news unless the BTC supply is also on hold, same as crude oil.

[Alpha Marine]

The price of Bitcoin started going down before anybody thought a war was going to break out between the US, Israel and Iran. After hitting a new ATH in October of last year, Bitcoin was in a downward trend for most of the most o fthe last quarter of last year. At that point, the war wasn't even brewing. At the beginning of the year, it looked like it was going to recover, but we thought wrong because around early Febuary, it nosedived to around $64k. All these were before the war began. So it is very wrong to say that Bitcoin price is where it is ow ecause of the war when it was obvious we were in a bear market even before the first bombed where launched or before the military of all countries involved where mobilised.

You may say the war made it worse, but there is really no way of knowing, because I might argue that the war made it better. We saw how the Bitcoin price picked up in the early days of the war.
War or not, we were headed for a bear season this year, one way or another. People just didn't want to believe there was a bear season because Bitcoin looked like it was just going to keep going up with little dips in price here and there.
As long as there is a halving, I believe there will always be a bull season and a bear season because the anticipation of the halving will make people startbuying close to and after the halving and when the price has peaked with anew ATH, more people would like to take profit and this will cause a ripple effect.
I don't think there is any big conspiracy going on. It's just human nature and behaviour taking place over and again. The complicated part is that humans can be unpredictable at times. They don't always react to situations the same way they reacted previously, so it's difficult to tell at what point they would buy or sell. This is why it usually takes something to trigger the selling.

[jossiel]

so will we see such a price change again?

If there is one thing that we all will agree with, Bitcoin's price has always been unpredictable.

While there's this on going war, the impact that it did for this current bear isn't a lot.

But we'll not know what might happen on the upcoming months so that will be the deciding months if this year's bear is gonna be painful or not.

The four year cycle is still intact, we got the high last year so it's only a matter of time if the lowest will come or it already did.

[hyudien]

I think if this war ends quickly the price of Bitcoin will reach a good position. Although, before the end of 2025 the price of Bitcoin was 126k dollars so will we see such a price change again? I look forward to your valuable opinions.

Bitcoin has its halving moments, and historically there's always a major drop in each of these cycles. So, it's reasonable to assume that this is indeed the time for a bear market, and the reaction is accelerated by the current war. So, the current drop is partly due to these two factors. But Bitcoin can always achieve something after that drop, but we never know exactly when.

[joniboini]

Honestly, I'm on the camp that the four-year cycle shouldn't be treated like a hard rule. Just like the rainbow pattern or something similar in the past. I remember someone who track the pattern explicitly changes the calculation every now and then to make sure the pattern doesn't break, which means the market isn't constrained by some invisible rules. Treat is a general indicator of how the market sees trend and react accordingly if something extraordinary happens imo.

[Livingleged]

We all saw the bear trend movement even before the war started. Therefore it is just a reflection that the bearish  movement between 120k to 90k down to 60k in bitcoin price is definitely not as a result of the recent war between the USA and Iran. I mostly agree that it is just the normal behaviour of bitcoin bearish market that happens after every 4 years. When the bear is over it will take a bull and most likely hit another ATH maybe around 180k! Or 200k who knows. War, disputes and bad news from investors are great factors that can actually influence the price of bitcoin because of panic and holders fear and sell, but it just for a very short time and not like we are seeing it right now. At some point during the war the price dropped to about 64k, but today it’s priced at 77k should it not still be dropping if the war was having that significant impact on the price? It’s definitely a reflection of the four years cycle and has really nothing to do with the ongoing war.

[Nathrixxx]

Let's try to forget about the ongoing war between countries and focus more about the Bitcoin network and what it has to offer us concerning the seasons, we know that there are many faces in crypto cycle, there is bear and Bull season, all this work together with the market demand and supply in correspondence to how it react at a particular time, incidence like war are only a short-term reaction on the market price.

[Pandorak]

I think if this war ends quickly the price of Bitcoin will reach a good position. Although, before the end of 2025 the price of Bitcoin was 126k dollars so will we see such a price change again? I look forward to your valuable opinions.

War is just one of the factors causing the market to crash, particularly in the case of Bitcoin. Another factor is that we have entered a bear market, this inevitably happens in every cycle. Although Bitcoin price was at an all time high and we thought it wouldn’t drop below $100k, the fact is the price plummeted to an extreme low of $60k and that happened just a few months ago. It was something no one had anticipated, soaring to the heavens only to be slammed hard back down to earth. So the war is only making the situation worse and even if the war stops, it’s not certain that Bitcoin price will rise significantly enough to set a new all time high.

[joniboini]

Although Bitcoin price was at an all time high and we thought it wouldn’t drop below $100k, the fact is the price plummeted to an extreme low of $60k and that happened just a few months ago. It was something no one had anticipated, soaring to the heavens only to be slammed hard back down to earth.

I'd argue that experienced traders know we can go as low as -70% from ATH, or even lower. War or not, we've seen Bitcoin price falls so low after reaching a new ATH. I remember seeing we reach $20k then back to $3k, from $70k back to $20k or somewhere along that price. It shouldn't be surprising. Even with more liquidity, geopolitic changes, self-fulfilling prophecy and people taking profits gave enough force to bring the price that low.

[illusioNiZt]

I think it’s more about the 4-year cycle than the war itself.

Global conflicts can definitely create short-term panic or volatility, but Bitcoin has been following similar patterns for years now. Even if the war ends and market sentiment improves, I don’t think one event alone will decide where BTC goes long term.

[bitcoindusts]

I think if this war ends quickly the price of Bitcoin will reach a good position. Although, before the end of 2025 the price of Bitcoin was 126k dollars so will we see such a price change again? I look forward to your valuable opinions.

I still think Bitcoin price will normally moves on its own depending on the supply and demand in the market.  I do not think that this war have huge impact on Bitcoin market because the market pattern does not deviate too far from the 4-year cycle.

I still believe that the current Bitcoin market pattern is still following the 4-year cycle so we will be seeing lots of sideways and some downward pattern with recovery until the hype of Bitcoin halving emerge before we see a huge surge of Bitcoin price.