Do you think if not the war we could have experience higher surge?

[aoluain]

The markets are being manipulated ATM, If the war had not been started I think the market would likely
be below $60k. It might well come to pass that the markets will slide.

hugeblack is right that we have not seen to full effects on the market from the war and what is going to result
from the fertilizer shortage, helium shortage, LNG shortage and obviously Oil shortage. Another factor is the
effect on the petro dollar. I'm not qualified to know what will happen there but my thinking is its not going to be
a positive one.

Maybe we will see a slide downwards and its possibly worse than if the war had not happened.

[Finestream]

Bitcoin has been increasingly sensitive to global events not only this year but even to previous years. World crisis has caused so much volatility on the price of bitcoin. In fact, with the first 48 hours of Middle East conflict, bitcoin price has dropped massively but slowly recovered the following days when the institutional demand for bitcoin has resumed.

So yes, if not the war, we could have experienced a higher surge for bitcoin. However, a bearish market does not automatically change or influenced despite having a global crisis that occurs during that time. A bear market always brings a bearish price, just like a bull market creates a bullish price significantly. So with or without the Middle East war, bitcoin price will stay bearish due to its timed market cycle.

[passwordnow]

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

It's likely that we're seeing a lot of drop if there's no war. Because of how Trump is playing out the markets with his posts, the market reacts so fast. But if we just go through the common time of this year which is the bear market, I guess that we already have a clue on the direction of the market. It's not a surge but more of a drop. The conflict I think made it even better whenever these things happen but can't be happy with that when there are lives that are suffering because of this war.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

The war started I think around ending of February this year, meanwhile Bitcoin got to $60k on 6th of the same February. Price stayed around $60k zone but on the first week of March, price got to $74k and since then the price has been increasing and did not go below the $60k. What I'm trying to establish here is that price already fell to $60k while the war has not even escalated so badly in the month of February, and while the war was escalating around 28th of February through March, the price of Bitcoin didn't fall any further but was going up. So, I don't agree that the war prevented Bitcoin from surging.

[Russlenat]

Negative events come with negative price for bitcoin, that's how crypto market and bitcoin can easily be influenced with the war in the Middle East. So it really affected how bitcoin price moves in the market, but the effect will only be temporarily.

But with the current bearish market, that has nothing to do with this war or any calamity or crisis that arise globally. Bitcoin price will always be low or stay in dips when the market is bearish, regardless if the war ends. The price will only surge high when the market recovers and slowly leaving the bear market or crypto winter.

[Perfectbaby]

As some other member have pointed out, the bear market had begun before the war. Furthermore, war is not the only factor affecting the market. If you check the chart, you will see that the conflict between Iran and the United States has had very little impact on the market. So, the war cannot be blamed for the current market situation

Although markets are significantly influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical, do not always try to link every market move to them. Instead, keep thing simple and treat it as normal market volatility. Because in any market, prices go up and down.

You actually share my thoughts and what I was also having in mind to say about the market, to plan, there are people who are that subjective to things and they easily quickly link things into some physical circumstances or occurrences. As we know the market has already started the bear cycle before the war started and I believe it just naturally than being merged to the war and even if the war could have significant impact that wouldn't be that much or too effective.

[Just Say]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

If the war had not started, we would have seen a much bigger change in the entire cryptocurrency market, let's check how accurate your statement is. In fact, you may have mentioned a direct war between Iran and the United States here, but if you look at the cryptocurrency market, it can be seen that the market has changed since before this war started, but it is downward, and this happened in October last year, and you should know that this military war directly started on February 28 of the new year. Due to the impact of this recent war, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, which has disrupted the oil supply in many countries of the world by a few percent, as a result of which we have observed that there is a possibility of a global economic recession due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or some countries have been created, but even then the behavior of Bitcoin and the crypto market is still significantly positive.

[Crypto Library]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.
Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

It is not possible for us to say what kind of experience we would have had without war, everything we will comment on is purely speculative and nothing more than what we can say here.

However, I personally expected that the price of bitcoin would have declined further during this period based on the past market, and when the war broke out, I thought it would accelerate even more, but I did not see the market in such a bad situation, rather it was unexpected for me to be above 70k. The bear season is not over yet. We have completed the first quarter of 2026. We still have the remaining three quarters to see. I think that even if the next two quarters have prices like this, we can enter a deep bearish market in the third quarter.

[Akbarkoe]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

If you notice that our market psychology has been formed in the 4-year bitcoin cycle, where the first year is always a bear market and during the bear market the FUD is louder and scattered as if it were a very big storm and there are always indications of bankruptcy or global conflict and it will be very loud supporting the decline in market liquidity because people are very panicked.

Not necessarily, if there is no bear market then we will not find natural selection from the many projects that are created, this in my opinion is very good for the future, every problem that comes with a storm to the market there is a positive impact that we can receive, unlike the absence of problems.

[coin-investor]

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

Most likely, but we'll never know, the market is highly volatile, so one piece of bad news can hurt the market. We just never know whether there will be bad news in the future in the absence of this war, but what I understand is that even the war couldn't cause a market crash; it bounced back during the pandemic, and it's doing the same here.
We just have to pray that in the coming weeks, no bloodbath is going to happen because both parties are gearing up for another round of war, this coming week is crucial.

[Cryptomultiplier]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.
Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

It is not possible for us to say what kind of experience we would have had without war, everything we will comment on is purely speculative and nothing more than what we can say here.

However, I personally expected that the price of bitcoin would have declined further during this period based on the past market, and when the war broke out, I thought it would accelerate even more, but I did not see the market in such a bad situation, rather it was unexpected for me to be above 70k. The bear season is not over yet. We have completed the first quarter of 2026. We still have the remaining three quarters to see. I think that even if the next two quarters have prices like this, we can enter a deep bearish market in the third quarter.

What am seeing now is just speculation about how the market should be or should have been, but this is just a testament of how Bitcoin performance has escaped the hurdles and done better than altcoins.
All these volatilities has helped Bitcoin handle itself better by building and initiating institutional on ramps like the spot ETF which has made it stay stronger.

We survived bad tech in 2018 and now we are surviving the bad world caused by wars and geopolitical tensions.

I believe we would have experienced higher surge in terms of raw price action with Bitcoin, if not for all these hurdles it has had to face just to survive and remain resilient.

[Codeunkie1992]

I do think without the war, we might have seen a stronger surge, especially considering how market sentiment and investor confidence tend to react to geopolitical stability.

That said, it’s also possible that other factors like inflation, policy changes, or global demand would still have played a role in limiting growth. So while the upside could have been higher, I’m not sure it would have been dramatically different in the long run.

[Rabata]

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

When a war starts, it has a negative impact on the market. It creates panic among ordinary investors. And it is true that once panic spreads in the market, investors lose confidence. And at that time, panic selling can start. When a war starts, it does not have a direct impact but it continues to have an impact through investors. After a long bullish market, can we expect anything good? Because it is natural that a fall will occur at that time. If any negative event occurs at that time, especially an exchange hack or a war, then a big fall is seen in the market, which we think is due to that specific event, but in reality it happened at the normal pace of the market.

[aylabadia05]

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

War can have an impact on the markets, but during this Middle East conflict, I haven’t seen any impact on the crypto market. I mean, since the war began in February, the market has been in a downtrend after remaining above $80,000 for quite some time. As for the crypto market, I don’t think the impact is particularly noticeable; in fact, while the crypto market hasn’t changed much amid the conflict, we can see how prices in other markets have fallen as the war has progressed.

[7juju]

Even if the war wasn’t happening, and bitcoin bear season come, the price of bitcoin would have still gone down as expected. It’s just like bitcoin has been programmed to follow certain patterns depending on the prevailing season. Even without the war, we wouldn’t have seen a surge if it has been confirmed that we are in core bear season. Though we can say that the war was just the trigger to the bear season we are in. Even when the bull season will return, something will equally tigger it.

[Mate2237]

With the the market situation that, Bitcoin were experiencing before the war, I don't think that we will be seeing a surge in the price of price of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin is undergoing a market correction and will be down for a while probably we should be expecting a surge in price towards the ending of the year. We are far from a market pump so people should remove their mind from a surge in the market for now.


People should think about accumulation now that, the price is actually down and favorable for investment.Thia is actually the time to make money from investment because when you buy now and hold for the long term you stand a high chance of making gain, when the price begins to move higher eventually in the future.

[Cookdata]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

I hope you know that if I don't tune my TV to BBC and Algezeera, I don't know that there is war in the middle east? If Oil hasn't existed, many will still be in the dark about the whole situation with the war US has wage on some countries, this is why Bitcoin is unbothered. We have tried to break $80k many twice since this war started in March, that's shows we good. I feel the market isn't ready to make big moves, when it's ready it will regardless on what's going with regional war.

Poltically we might have to also consider post administration of Donald Trump. When I say things about what he has promised Bitcoin over the years people do think it's coming from political agenda but fact doesn't lie, he never liked Bitcoin for once, he lost second regime, he went home and plan with his sons to build relationship with Bitcoin and now he is back smiling and all that but to fulfill a promised made is now a big task. He is a fraud and I hope of Democrat comes back to office they don't do the opposite, it's not going to be funny.

[Zlantann]

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

The conflict in Iran which has also spread to other countries in the region affected the performance of Bitcoin adversely. Bitcoin is part  of the global financial system, so the current oil crisis is affecting the number of people or organisations who would have invested in Bitcoin. Without these instabilities, the bull run would have continued for a longer period. It is noteworthy to state that the Bitcoin market was just recovering from the effects of the tarrif, then we are now facing instabilities in the supply of crude oil. Bitcoin would have hit a higher ATH if not for all these distractions.

[rodskee]

since you are aware that the bear market is definitely on swing, we should expect that even without the war the market will not be seeing higher prices. it’s just been made more complicated with how investors and traders change their perspective on high risks investments

[GeorgeJohn]

The war had little effect on the market price. That is, without the war, the market would still be in a bear market. We have to accept what's happening and keep our minds far from the bullish trend. Because it is going to be a long ride before we see Bitcoin become bullish. My speculation has exceeded this year. I dont see Bitcoin reaching $120k by the end of this year. Maybe next year will be better.

You know that bitcoin price is unpredictable, it may surprise everyone and price of Bitcoin reached 100k or climb above 120k, most people were thinking that the price of Bitcoin will fall below 60k, and many people were speculating that the price will go below, but unfortunately the price began to increase...

Even at of yesterday the price of Bitcoin hits 78k going to 80k, but out of sudden it falls back to 77k, so it's possible that the price can increase above 120k before ending of the year, nobody knows the future price steps of bitcoin, it can increase unaware to everybody.
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