Do you think if not the war we could have experience higher surge?

[sunsilk]

Interesting point. I think bear markets happen mainly due to natural cycles, but events like war or hacks intensify the drop by creating fear. Even without the war, we likely would’ve seen a decline-just probably slower or less severe.

That's a good point. When there's no war, the drop will be so fast. But this time, we see money here and there.

And that's why the market moves quicker than the usual that we see. Although the year hasn't ended yet. I guess that we'll see more in the Q3-Q4.

It is when actually we'd feel the heat of the bear market even this war is settled or not, the market usually creates waves by those periods.

[Rain1620]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

When it comes to bear market, there is a level of curiosity and nervousness among investors and people planning to invest. Whenever a war or a huge drift tend to occur, it results in panic, rearing fear among them. If there was no war, I believe some individuals would have kept their coins and hold on to it for a long time.

Whenever the war begins, investors with high assets often convert their money from a risky assets to a more safer asset like moving it to gold or even converting to stable coins (which may pose higher risk in terms of freezing). If the war never came in, there would have been more money in the crypto market than selling them out for cash or other valuable assets.

Though the price might naturally drop due to some economic policies, that affect both stock and crypto market, war can also be used as a factor by some higher holders to create the nervousness and urge on some holder’s to sell out under this condition, removing the feelings that the prices are not fair or even been manipulated. the war that may happen maybe sooner or later is now seen as a reason for the drop.

[Fortify]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

You are presumably talking about bear market in crypto? You should be more specific because many people associate that tern with the stock market where it was traditionally used. Bitcoin had already started to drop before the war happened, so you've wrongly connected it with the Iran war. It should be going through a period of consolidation right now, which still brings up the average trending price over a long time range instead of just comparing peaks. The crypto market was also struggling beforehand because there was nothing stopping it or "blocking" it any longer. It finally got it's crypto friendly president and that allowed it to storm up to the heights of 120k, but what was the next big thing to generate hype? There isn't one currently.

[Minor Miner]

You are presumably talking about bear market in crypto? You should be more specific because many people associate that tern with the stock market where it was traditionally used.

We are on a Bitcoin forum, and most of us are crypto investors. There are not many stock market investors here, and many people have never even invested in stocks.

Bitcoin had already started to drop before the war happened, so you've wrongly connected it with the Iran war. It should be going through a period of consolidation right now, which still brings up the average trending price over a long time range instead of just comparing peaks. The crypto market was also struggling beforehand because there was nothing stopping it or "blocking" it any longer. It finally got it's crypto friendly president and that allowed it to storm up to the heights of 120k, but what was the next big thing to generate hype? There isn't one currently.

Yes, Bitcoin dropped to $60k in February, and the war in the Middle East had not even started at that point. However, I disagree with your assertion that Bitcoin reached $126k because we have a president who support Bitcoin. It is undeniable that Trump had some positive impact on the market, but that did not last. Bitcoin reaching $126k is a result of genuine demand.

We just need Bitcoin adoption to increase, demand to rise, the market will hype again.

[Negotiation]

War has no effect on bitcoin because it is often the case that when the possibility or excitement of war first spreads, it has a negative impact on the market before the war even fully begins. When a war begins or escalates the uncertainty disappears and a kind of stability comes which pushes the price back up. War or crisis can temporarily slow the price of bitcoin but it is not enough to stop a long term bull run or uptrend. On the contrary during a crisis the need for bitcoin is proven even more which ultimately helps to increase the price.

[jaberwock]

I believe the opposite, if not for the war we would have been a lot lower. I think it is not going to end up with something that would not be this high. Because of the war and because of Hormuz the oil prices went up, and that meant logistics costs a lot more, that means every product costs most and inflation is higher and because of high inflation the fiat is devalued and because of fiat devalued means bitcoin is higher.

So if not for the war then we would have something that would have been lower. Price would have been reaching to a point that is much lower and would not be all that confusing at all, should have been something that is very different on the long run and we would have something like 40k or so by now.

[Pi-network314159]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.

I think that this things happens on subsequent Times but if it happens during bear market, people will connect it to such circumstances forgetting that those things can Also happen during bull run, but since it doesn't affect bull run no one will talk about it. And another thing is that exchange hack can happen in any season, either bull or bear season but it may coincidentally meet at thesame time, making it look like that is how it usually happens. I will go into reserve and check how many event that happens in Bear season and bill run to see if this are coincidence or not.

[Somegory]

This is exactly what many people are thinking, that the war is why Bitcoin price feels stucked since the beginning of this year, but they lack alot of data I guess, because the four years cycle is still a thing.

It says we are in a bear market, not in a bull market, I don't know why many are finding this hard to accept, we are in a bear market already, Bitcoin still have the potential to go down, forget the few surge in price that we have been seeing since few days now.

Without or with the war I don't believe that Bitcoin will make a new all time high soon, it's going to work as it's past history, this year is a bearish year, and Bitcoin will go lower.

[The Cryptovator]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

The crypto market has been trying to come out from the bear, but due to the war, it's failed a couple of times. When Bitcoin is trying to break out, the war stops it from the breakout. It should be noted that we have been in a bear market since before the war, and the bear hasn't happened due to the war. But the situation is becoming worse due to the war, and unless the war ends soon, we may not see Bitcoin break out.

Negative news affects the crypto market, but from the war, what would be the biggest negativity? I know people may panic due to the war, but this is the right time to enter the market. For a couple of months Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been giving accumulation opportunities. To be honest, I have accumulated a couple of coins this time and I am waiting for the next bull run.

[purple_sparkles]

I have been thinking if it is only war that is trying to control the market, already as we know the market is already bear run but it mostly happened or do I say it is a coincidence that whenever we have Bear market there is always an incident like a negative news that keeps reflecting to the market whereby the dip would be severe and as i know from research there is always an occurrence, it could be exchange hack, war or anything that goes in line with the bear market that keep making people to believe that it was that occurrence that has insignificant loses in the market.

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

The crypto market has been trying to come out from the bear, but due to the war, it's failed a couple of times. When Bitcoin is trying to break out, the war stops it from the breakout. It should be noted that we have been in a bear market since before the war, and the bear hasn't happened due to the war. But the situation is becoming worse due to the war, and unless the war ends soon, we may not see Bitcoin break out.

Negative news affects the crypto market, but from the war, what would be the biggest negativity? I know people may panic due to the war, but this is the right time to enter the market. For a couple of months Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been giving accumulation opportunities. To be honest, I have accumulated a couple of coins this time and I am waiting for the next bull run.

Everything in the world follows certain cycles, and people still haven’t learned how to manage them in a way that avoids repeating the mistakes and tragedies of previous generations. Many of these cycles are described in books, they apply to human life, the economy and its crises, and unfortunately, even wars. Sometimes these crises overlap and reinforce each other, which is something we can observe now. I think that even if the conflict with Iran had not started, the price of bitcoin would still be in a downturn, at least until the winter holidays.

[AprilioMP]

Do, you think without the war we could have experience a higher changes on the entire cryptocurrency market? Let just share our thoughts and feelings and also reflect back to the past previous bear market.

Global economic policies, halving cycles, and confidence levels can all influence market prices. War can be a significant factor affecting the market, as it tends to catch people off guard.
Generally speaking, war is not the sole determinant of change, and even without war, market price fluctuations do not occur as easily or as quickly as flipping a hand. Everything depends on the market cycle and the laws of supply and demand.

[adultcrypto]

The war have impacted several businesses and assets with the energy sector impacted the most, but I do not think there is any noticeable impact of the war on bitcoin price. Before the war broke out, bitcoin already started the decline that lingered till date. As expected, the market will react a little to news such as the war but not to the extent that we can call it major impact. Also, for the past weeks, the market have rallied close to $80k from below 70k where it tarried for long and this happens even when the war is not over, although the bombings stopped. Therefore, the war have not heard any serious impact on bitcoin price, just minor reactions which is normal for high impact news.

[YellowSwap]

Something have always happen, it was in 2020 when people are saying that if COVID doesn't attack the world Bitcoin would have been in the 100k range at the time, something will always happen and it always goes well with crypto bear market.

Let's not forget that Bitcoin has a chart for a reason, it always respect the chart in the end, what will happen will happen with the war going. On, even if there was no war it doesn't mean that Bitcoin will keep going on.

When a new all time high is made, what goes up will always come down, Bitcoin will respect the chart and tumble, the smarty investors and institutions have all taken their profits, it's left for dreamers to keep dreaming this high.

[barbara44]

No, I don't think that the market would have gone higher if there was no war, and the reason for that is because the market was already down before the war started. By the time the war started, the market was already in a decline, and it was way below $80k or at least $90k if I remember correctly, and that was after the Bitcoin crash when it went from $115k to $102k in a few hours, and after that, the market could never recover properly, it once tried to go above $110k, but then crashed again from there below $100k, and then we didn't see it going above $100k again. The war surely affected the price a little bit in the initial phase, but it quickly recovered.

People also keep saying and believing that the market is set to surge once again now when there are peace talks happening and there is temporary cease fire between the countries that were in war, but I don't think the market will have much of an effect because of that. We will have to accept the fact that we are already done with the bull run in this cycle, so we shouldn't be expecting another wave of the bull run anymore, and we should start preparing ourselves for the bear market, because we have seen glimpse of it already when the price went to $60k.

[WillyAp]

Why is hardly anyone mentions the migration taking place in the Bitcoin Mining community?

The transformation has been swift. Nearly every company now wants to integrate generative AI into their business model, while governments are scrambling to develop sovereign AI infrastructure.

Wall Street has taken notice, rewarding the companies behind the technology shift handsomely. According to JPMorgan, between 65% and 75% of the S&P 500’s returns since 2022 have come from just 42 companies involved in generative AI.

The surge has sparked an arms race for GPU-powered data center capacity. The numbers are staggering. Goldman Sachs forecasts that data center energy usage will increase 175% by 2030, while Deloitte believes AI power demand in the U.S. could grow from 4 gigawatts in 2024 to 123 gigawatts by 2035. To put things in perspective, that’s equivalent to powering 90 million to 100 million homes.

source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2026/02/02/why-bitcoin-miners-are-winning-the-ai-data-center-arms-race/

The interesting question remains unanswered. How many will still let a few mining rigs work to they can support the network.

[justdimin]

Something have always happen, it was in 2020 when people are saying that if COVID doesn't attack the world Bitcoin would have been in the 100k range at the time, something will always happen and it always goes well with crypto bear market.

Let's not forget that Bitcoin has a chart for a reason, it always respect the chart in the end, what will happen will happen with the war going. On, even if there was no war it doesn't mean that Bitcoin will keep going on.

When a new all time high is made, what goes up will always come down, Bitcoin will respect the chart and tumble, the smarty investors and institutions have all taken their profits, it's left for dreamers to keep dreaming this high.

There always will be rumours and such news circulating the markets even if there is no straight relation. Not just in 2020 but we have kept seeing this since decades. Not just with cryptos or bitcoins, it goes the same for any asset or commodity having real-world importance or monetary value. People want markets to run according to their wish but things does not always go the way we want them to be.

We should keep realistic goals to study and analyse the markets accordingly. False assumptions coming out of the thin air will never make us gain profits for longer run. Everyone was expecting bitcoins to drop once a new ATH was hit. We have seen the same historically and from past, the thing I learnt is markets always respect and follow the past.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

The war is in no way a determinant to either the market fall or rise for now because we are already in the bear season and the market is more bearish than going bullish, I don't think we can go more higher because we are already seeing the market in this direction even before and after the war started, everything only depends on the market demand and supply before we could complete on the analysis to the direction where the market is heading and we should not think that we have just launched in the bullrun like that.