Bull or bear market after Jerome Powell completes his term?

[Oshosondy]

Jerome Powell will complete his term as the United States Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 15, 2026. You all know that Donald Trump  nominated Kevin Warsh and it is very possible he is going to be the next fed chair.

According to where I found, it was said that after new fed chair resume office, that bitcoin price did decreased. It also said that stocks may also fall, but this discussion is about just bitcoin.

Another thing is that they said Kevin Warsh had mixed reactions for risk assets.

What do you think about this?

[AprilioMP]

I was reminded of Saylor’s remarks at the Bitcoin 2026 event presented by Nakamoto, which I watched in a video posted on the Cointelegraph account.
The interests of the Bitcoin and crypto communities are beginning to overlap, indicating that they will all drive demand for Bitcoin.

A change in the Fed chair or the appointment of a new chair won’t necessarily cause everything to change overnight, unless the communities drive significant demand for Bitcoin. With such high demand, it’s impossible for the market price not to rise.

[Dave1]

I thought that the next FED chair will be pro-crypto? So why would they predict that the price of Bitcoin is going to go down? Doesn't make sense to me, unless they are pointing that we are in the bear market so the price is going to decline.

So it's not about who is going to be the next FED chair, he might be pro-Bitcoin but if the sentiments overall is negative and again, the argument that this is the start of the bear market and we haven't seen the lowest low. It's not that they are going to magnified that because there is a new FED chair, it will be very bad for the market.

[michellee]

I will wait and see and act based on the situation, I don't know what will happen after that but if the situation becoming worst, we should be ready. We don't know what the new fed chair agenda but I think they will still pro the government. But if the new fed chair giving many positives things to crypto, maybe crypto have more chances to grow than before the change of the new fed.

[fuguebtc]

What do you think about this?

The market is influenced by many factor, not just Trump's political policies or the Fed monetary policies.

So the market will likely fluctuate when there is official information about Kevin Warsh replacing Powell. But I think it will all be short term, similar to when Trump was elected. This news would even fade into obscurity and nobody would care if news from the Middle East heated up again.  Therefore, we do not need to take that news too seriously.

[Charles-Tim]

The market is influenced by many factor, not just Trump's political policies or the Fed monetary policies.

Yes, this is very true. Bitcoin may go in the bear direction again, but at the end, all-time high is what that later happened. Looking at the speculative side of bitcoin at times might be deceiving. This can only help the swing traders and also some other traders, provided if they do not lose. But investors have the strategies and they hold for long and make money instead. Even if it dipped, it means more buy for them.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

According to where I found, it was said that after new fed chair resume office, that bitcoin price did decreased. It also said that stocks may also fall, but this discussion is about just bitcoin.

I don't think just a change in Fed Chair could cause the Bitcoin market to high volatility either to fall or rise, but I will also be more anticipating for what may happen if the new chair images of this by next month, even though people will always say that something related to its trigger the market to respond even as we have been having both rise and fall more consistently this month of April.

[Zaguru12]

I don't think just a change in Fed Chair could cause the Bitcoin market to high volatility either to fall or rise, but I will also be more anticipating for what may happen if the new chair images of this by next month, even though people will always say that something related to its trigger the market to respond even as we have been having both rise and fall more consistently this month of April.

Bitcoin is global currency and not a United State coin alone but we cannot deny that the market sentiment is actually affected by the economical decision or situation that is coming from that country than any other country in the world. Now with a change in the federal reserve Chair who we don’t know how his policy will be since the institutions said they are independent. I think with also what was happening with Powell will happen with Kelvin. His policies will definitely influence the market sentiment which in turn will affect the bitcoin market price, but as usual traditional market are more affected with this FED news than bitcoin and I don’t see that changing.

[BitMaxz]

I don't think they care who will be the Chair of the Federal Reserve, but the Fed's interest rates could have an impact on Bitcoin and all other assets. So I don't see how this news will affect Bitcoin, either bullish or bearish.

I only care about the interest rate announcement because it is one of the most important news items on the Forex calendar.

[Mpamaegbu]

What do you think about this?

What I perceive is that price will push up as that date draws near and then investors will begin to take profit. It will cause price to dip around the first week of the swearing in of the new man. Kevin Warsh is Trump's man. I expect what happened before the swearing in of Trump to also play out here. There was much expectations leading to that. That expectation will repeat itself once again with the impending retirement of Powell.

[Alpen]

Jerome Powell will complete his term as the United States Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 15, 2026. You all know that Donald Trump  nominated Kevin Warsh and it is very possible he is going to be the next fed chair.

According to where I found, it was said that after new fed chair resume office, that bitcoin price did decreased. It also said that stocks may also fall, but this discussion is about just bitcoin.

Another thing is that they said Kevin Warsh had mixed reactions for risk assets.

What do you think about this?

At this point, it doesn't really matter who takes the helm at the Fed. Current interest rates are high enough to give the Fed plenty of room to support the economy if a crisis hits. There’s no doubt that the conflict in the Middle East has already led to economic stagnation; as soon as the military actions end, the rates will start to come down.

That’s where it gets interesting. The stock market has already priced this scenario in. With Wall Street indices at record highs, we’re likely looking at a "sell the news" event once the rate cuts actually happen.

This will free up capital for Bitcoin. Since BTC is currently 50% below its all-time high, it’s clearly undervalued and ready for a capital rotation

[colinistheman]

According to where I found, it was said that after new fed chair resume office, that bitcoin price did decreased. It also said that stocks may also fall, but this discussion is about just bitcoin.

This news is going viral on X, and most people are expecting Bitcoin to break this curse.

January 2014: Janet Yellen became Fed Chair. Bitcoin fell 84% from its peak.
February 2018: Jerome Powell started his first term. Bitcoin dropped 73%.
May 2022: Powell began his second term. Bitcoin declined 61%.

https://www.mexc.com/news/1056495


https://x.com/cryptorover/status/2049052780229476409

Another thing is that they said Kevin Warsh had mixed reactions for risk assets.

In the past, Kevin Warsh was known for his rather hawkish views. He often advocated for high interest rates and opposed excessive monetary easing. But recently, he has become more dovish, and has repeatedly publicly advocated for lower interest rates and prioritizing economic growth. That's why Trump chose him.

However, even though he is the chairman of the Fed, ultimately, lowering interest rate need to be based on economic data and decided by a vote. He has no right to make decisions unilaterally.

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-
What do you think about this?

We all know that Trump is chaotic, otherwise, a transition from an old Fed Chair to a new one shouldn't have caused any significant market shift or volatility. But as we all know, Trump has been a strong critic of Powell and an advocate of rate cut, and he will ensure he puts the man that will execute his bidding there, which likely is Kevin Warsh, at least the most popular nominee now. Also, this guy will be Trump's puppet in many other things, which will raise concern and uncertain about Fed's independence and reactions in the markets. This naturally pushes risk-on markets like Bitcoin and stocks lower, even without a rate cut.

However, this will happen in the beginning of the tenure of a new Fed Chair, and everything should return to normal shortly after. Above all, expect some aggressive rate cut.

[dezoel]

I do not think that it will have a big impact for now. I understand that many people are expecting this, but it will depend on the interest rate question, so we have some time before we can know what is going to happen.

First he needs to leave, then someone else needs to be appointed and then we are going to see rates change, and that is the moment we are going to see a change.

So there is still some time left, and we do not have to make a big change just yet, we need to sit tight and wait for it.

[dansus021]

there will be different between Kevin Warsh and Jerome powell first of all, Powell is often described as a centrist. He led the Fed through a highly hawkish while the Kevin during his 2026 confirmation hearings, he surprised some by suggesting AI-driven productivity could allow for lower interest rates without triggering inflation. Analysts now debate if he is a hawk-turned-dove.

While we know that Donald Trump is pro on bitcoin he businessman this one gonna mixed angle for bitcoin, as far that I know Kevin Warsh is widely regarded as the most crypto-literate nominee in the history of the Federal Reserve and he invest in some major crypto like solana. So it could be bull in a short term maybe

[AVE5]

According to where I found, it was said that after new fed chair resume office, that bitcoin price did decreased. It also said that stocks may also fall, but this discussion is about just bitcoin.

I don't think just a change in Fed Chair could cause the Bitcoin market to high volatility either to fall or rise, but I will also be more anticipating for what may happen if the new chair images of this by next month, even though people will always say that something related to its trigger the market to respond even as we have been having both rise and fall more consistently this month of April.

You never can tell the influence of the FED chair and if we can assume that adoption rate truly shapes bitcoin price and so on the global market and political news could also manipulate price to fall or rise, then this chair person who's projected to govern a whole US reserve assets should have the potential criterias to influence the price.
The person in that official position can psychologically cause market sentiments where it may pick investors interests and we know the essence of good and bad news in the bitcoin and crypto market has it attributes too. This doesn't actually mean the body is regulating the price but can be manipulated.

[LogitechMouse]

Jerome Powell will complete his term as the United States Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 15, 2026. You all know that Donald Trump  nominated Kevin Warsh and it is very possible he is going to be the next fed chair.

According to where I found, it was said that after new fed chair resume office, that bitcoin price did decreased. It also said that stocks may also fall, but this discussion is about just bitcoin.

Another thing is that they said Kevin Warsh had mixed reactions for risk assets.

What do you think about this?

I think it will depend. If this new Chair will be pro-crypto, we might see some bullish effect on it towards the crypto market in the long run, and vice-versa.

Also, let's not forget that the US are still in war with Iran, and right now they can't just make some big decisions like cutting interest rates, and many more. This is also one reason why Papa Powell doesn't cut interest rates as well. We will see the effect of this "new" chair after this war ends. I looked at some article and this one says that Warsh is pro-Bitcoin: LINK

Warsh has been described as "pro-bitcoin," and in a May interview with the Hoover Institution, he said that there are "real innovators" building "in and around" crypto.

"Bitcoin doesn't trouble me. I think of it as an important asset that can help inform policymakers when they're doing things right and wrong," he said. "It is not a substitute to the dollar."

These comments could be driving some of the interest in his crypto investments.

He sees Bitcoin as somewhat positive, but of course that's not the only the asset that considered "high-risk". I guess let's see if how he will affect the movement of the crypto market assuming that he becomes the new Chairman.

[Darker45]

I don't think the person who'll be appointed as the next chair of the US federal reserve matters so much so that he or his appointment could determine whether Bitcoin would turn bullish or bearish. I don't think he or his name is that important in the Bitcoin market.

In the first place, the power that appointed him is generally pro Bitcoin. I don't think he'd go against that. Secondly, the playing field is generally in the hands of the giants in the financial and banking sector, which at this point is generally embracing Bitcoin. Had he been anti-Bitcoin, he wouldn't have possibly been specifically picked for that position.

If anything, it would be his policy affecting the overall economy that could have impact on Bitcoin.

[free-bit.co.in]

In the first place, the power that appointed him is generally pro Bitcoin. I don't think he'd go against that. Secondly, the playing field is generally in the hands of the giants in the financial and banking sector, which at this point is generally embracing Bitcoin. Had he been anti-Bitcoin, he wouldn't have possibly been specifically picked for that position.

The role of the Chairman of the Fed is to manage US monetary policy, control inflation and maintain the stability of the financial system. Therefore, the selection of the Fed chairman will be based on economic factors. Trump would not choose and the Senate would not agree to have Kevin Warsh take this position simply because he like or dislike bitcoin.

Bitcoin has never been a sufficiently important factor or criterion in appointments to such high level position.
By the way, do you still believe that Trump is a supporter of Bitcoin?

[JeffBrad12]

Honestly don't know. Maybe bullish since Jerome Powell insistence on keeping the rate and has recently cancelled the rate cut but my guess is that it won't be that much different.
We know rate cut is from collective agreement from the FOMC through vote and rate cut has been one of many reason why bitcoin is going up and others. It will be more or less the same.