Bull or bear market after Jerome Powell completes his term?

[Smack That Ace]

Honestly don't know. Maybe bullish since Jerome Powell insistence on keeping the rate and has recently cancelled the rate cut but my guess is that it won't be that much different.
We know rate cut is from collective agreement from the FOMC through vote and rate cut has been one of many reason why bitcoin is going up and others. It will be more or less the same.

FOMC consists of 12 member and decision on interest rates are made by voting. No one has the right to make decisions unilaterally, not even the chairman of the Fed. Therefore, Kevin Warsh's assumption of the chairmanship only increases the likelihood of a rate cut, but does not guarantee that it will happen.

I even believe the market will not care much about this news or who the next Fed chairman will be. What everyone is interested in is the policy and decisions of the Fed.

[Darker45]

~snip~

The role of the Chairman of the Fed is to manage US monetary policy, control inflation and maintain the stability of the financial system. Therefore, the selection of the Fed chairman will be based on economic factors. Trump would not choose and the Senate would not agree to have Kevin Warsh take this position simply because he like or dislike bitcoin.

Bitcoin has never been a sufficiently important factor or criterion in appointments to such high level position.
By the way, do you still believe that Trump is a supporter of Bitcoin?

Do you seriously believe that the president of the US is picking somebody solely because of economic factors? Do you think the appointments he has made is genuinely for the good of the country, selfless, altruistic, whatever? What if the cost of such decisions would be his family's multi-billion business interests? Would Trump proceed? I'm not saying this is a case of either-or, but I'm more than sure he won't compromise his personal interests over economic matters.

I don't believe that Trump truly supports Bitcoin. But I do believe he doesn't want Bitcoin to get hurt because he's got so much stake in the market.

[JeffBrad12]

FOMC consists of 12 member and decision on interest rates are made by voting. No one has the right to make decisions unilaterally, not even the chairman of the Fed. Therefore, Kevin Warsh's assumption of the chairmanship only increases the likelihood of a rate cut, but does not guarantee that it will happen.

I even believe the market will not care much about this news or who the next Fed chairman will be. What everyone is interested in is the policy and decisions of the Fed.

Combine it Kevin Warsh's historical hawkishness. I'm optimistic but I won't expect much even after Jerome Powell completes his term. This isn't something that could turn around the tide of the market and becoming the major factor in whether we gonna turn bullish or bearish at all.

[Majestic-milf]

 These past Fed chairs have all inherited the "curse of the bear market" once they take over office and many eyes will be on Kevin Warsh to be different but it's just a matter of time. I read somewhere about Warsh calling Bitcoin the digital gold for people under 40 so all this is a positive for the market but who's to say that this isn't just mere talk to strengthen the confidence of people and to also gain some kind of support from the Bitcoin community.

[summonerrk]

Jerome Powell will complete his term as the United States Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 15, 2026. You all know that Donald Trump  nominated Kevin Warsh and it is very possible he is going to be the next fed chair.

According to where I found, it was said that after new fed chair resume office, that bitcoin price did decreased. It also said that stocks may also fall, but this discussion is about just bitcoin.

Another thing is that they said Kevin Warsh had mixed reactions for risk assets.

What do you think about this?

Warsh's inauguration is tomorrow, and we know full well that the reason for Powell's ouster, so to speak, was his intransigence in lowering interest rates. Trump wanted the Fed to lower rates. So, here we have a new Fed chairman. Trump hopes—there were probably some agreements—that the rate will be lowered. However, at the last meeting, we see the Fed becoming more hawkish, and the minutes show that more and more officials are warning of a rate hike scenario. Most Fed officials warned of a possible interest rate hike if inflation continues to persistently exceed the 2% target. Officials are leaning toward tightening policy rather than easing. As a reminder, the meeting decided to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.

[bubilas]

Jerome Powell will complete his term as the United States Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 15, 2026. You all know that Donald Trump  nominated Kevin Warsh and it is very possible he is going to be the next fed chair.

According to where I found, it was said that after new fed chair resume office, that bitcoin price did decreased. It also said that stocks may also fall, but this discussion is about just bitcoin.

Another thing is that they said Kevin Warsh had mixed reactions for risk assets.

What do you think about this?

Warsh's inauguration is tomorrow, and we know full well that the reason for Powell's ouster, so to speak, was his intransigence in lowering interest rates. Trump wanted the Fed to lower rates. So, here we have a new Fed chairman. Trump hopes—there were probably some agreements—that the rate will be lowered. However, at the last meeting, we see the Fed becoming more hawkish, and the minutes show that more and more officials are warning of a rate hike scenario. Most Fed officials warned of a possible interest rate hike if inflation continues to persistently exceed the 2% target. Officials are leaning toward tightening policy rather than easing. As a reminder, the meeting decided to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.

The Federal Reserve is concerned about rising inflationary pressures due to the war with Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and higher-than-expected inflation and employment figures. The risk of a return to 2% inflation in the near future is certainly becoming unrealistic, as the latest data has shown. What will Warsh come up with? What tools will he employ? It's hard to say. Well, the only possible solution is perhaps reducing the Fed's balance sheet. He hinted at this, but under these circumstances, many Fed members would consider a rate cut crazy. However, for markets, if there's a storm, it would be a bad sign. So far, as we know, US statistics aren't leading the way. Markets react primarily to events in the Strait of Hormuz, but the apparent calm of the US stock markets is causing some mild confusion every day.
The next Fed meeting will be on June 16th or 17th. Before then, we'll get some interesting statistics.

[Johnlomape]

These past Fed chairs have all inherited the "curse of the bear market" once they take over office and many eyes will be on Kevin Warsh to be different but it's just a matter of time. I read somewhere about Warsh calling Bitcoin the digital gold for people under 40 so all this is a positive for the market but who's to say that this isn't just mere talk to strengthen the confidence of people and to also gain some kind of support from the Bitcoin community.

Even if that has been the pattern, that should not affect the long term movement of Bitcoin. Investors are mostly after the long term movement of Bitcoin that will effectively help the adoption of Bitcoin. If the price of Bitcoin falls after or during the inauguration of the fed chairman, that most be a political move since past reactions doesn't repeat itself always.
There are investors that like creating fud and taking advantage of the market to buy Bitcoin at a very low price.

[STT]

The long term effect of any Fed Chief is not a position that can turn the tide and that is dollar depreciation, so the case for BTC is bullish over the long term.   If we are considering just the rest of this year, I believe market progress for BTC will be mixed and challenging but not bearish.
   We could even ignore the Dollar, ignore the FED and ignore the politics with its constant noise interference in news and plain markets.  We need to have a constant steady progress across such simple measures like 50 day average and 200 day average, when this is true we are going to have a bull market.   Right now we are quite mixed and facing future challenges with uncertainty to overcome so you don't have the simplicity of either bull or bear right now and I'd guess not for some time forward.

[BitMaxz]

The long term effect of any Fed Chief is not a position that can turn the tide and that is dollar depreciation, so the case for BTC is bullish over the long term.   If we are considering just the rest of this year, I believe market progress for BTC will be mixed and challenging but not bearish.
   We could even ignore the Dollar, ignore the FED and ignore the politics with its constant noise interference in news and plain markets.  We need to have a constant steady progress across such simple measures like 50 day average and 200 day average, when this is true we are going to have a bull market.   Right now we are quite mixed and facing future challenges with uncertainty to overcome so you don't have the simplicity of either bull or bear right now and I'd guess not for some time forward.

Which indicator do you use to calculate the 50- and 200-day averages? My guess is that you're using the EMA, which is a fairly common indicator for determining trends.
If you are using 50 and 200 EMAs in a daily time frame, then BTC has already rejected the 200 EMA, which is a sign for bearishness this month, but if the market shifts later and breaks the 200 EMA, I believe the market will shift to bullish, but I see it happening in the third quarter of this year.

That's a simple technical analysis compared to hearing the noise fundamentally. Since the news will only lead you to a choppy chart compared to using the simple trading indicator that simplifies everything.

[summonerrk]

One of the main narratives persistently promoted in the crypto space is the correlation of BTC with liquidity.
And here there is a serious regime shift . In January, the market expected 3-4 rate cuts from the Fed in 2026. By March, 2 declines.  At the beginning of May, 1 decrease is questionable.  Last week (for the first time since the fall of 2024), the market started trading the probability of a rate hike. Kevin Warsh became the new head of the Federal Reserve on May 22.
Trump publicly wants him to make quick cuts.
And Warsh has been more of a hawk in the past than Powell. This contradiction adds uncertainty and draws attention to any statement made by the new FED chairman.