Could a major Bitcoin sell-off occur in the near future?

[Marvelockg]

I remember how, on April 1st, Bitcoin forum transformed into a forum dedicated to the dollar.

However, I am convinced that there is a grain of truth in every joke. So, could a moment arrive when all major Bitcoin holders exchange their coins for dollars - and the price doesn't merely drop to, say, $40,000 (as many expect), but crashes all the way down to $10,000 or even lower?

I believe if big holders sell Bitcoin then Bitcoin price can go down but $10k? It seems unbelievable to me, we are past that time. Think about the future where many think Bitcoin price will be $1 million in the future. However, if the market goes down, you should not panic but try to take advantage of the opportunity to buy at a lower price. Honestly no one can predict Bitcoin accurately so avoid believing any predictions.

We can easily make an inference when we look at the response of investors at the time bitcoin went down and how they are reacting now that bitcoin has come down.  Even with minor sell off, investors continues to join the bitcoin ecosystem and with every pull back comes more enthusiastic bitcoin investors who are ready to pull in Thier weight heavily into stating invested and buying more of bitcoin.

We've gone passed that stage where a sell of will trigger serious fear among investors because sells and buys are part of the things that goes in in the bitcoin investment ecosystem and regardless which is stronger at certain point in time, bitcoin will always thrive through it all.

[henmark]

We can easily make an inference when we look at the response of investors at the time bitcoin went down and how they are reacting now that bitcoin has come down.  Even with minor sell off, investors continues to join the bitcoin ecosystem and with every pull back comes more enthusiastic bitcoin investors who are ready to pull in Thier weight heavily into stating invested and buying more of bitcoin.

We've gone passed that stage where a sell of will trigger serious fear among investors because sells and buys are part of the things that goes in in the bitcoin investment ecosystem and regardless which is stronger at certain point in time, bitcoin will always thrive through it all.

Mainly because when the price goes up, people buy it thinking it will go up more, and when it goes down, people buy it because they think it's cheap and discounted. So there is always a good reason to buy bitcoin, and nobody will ever stop buying bitcoin, people will always buy bitcoin, sometimes more, sometimes less, but they always do.

And right now we are at a good period where we could make some good returns for it, and it should not be all that complicated to do this neither, we should be capable of doing this as much as possible. I understand that it is not that simple to make this type of return ,we should be more careful about it, but at the current time we need to realize it is not something we could profit if we just ignore the movements of sellers.

[summonerrk]

The price won't drop that low. Bitcoin has a solid position now.
BTC is consolidating around $77,000, outflows from ETFs are continuing, uncertainty and fear are increasing. There is a deconstruction of the narrative that "BTC is dead."
The thesis has been ritually reproduced according to one script for 15 years now: bitcoin loses its round level, after which social networks calculate a "new bottom" and then weak hands sell at a loss, and after 5-10 weeks the structure is restored.
New players want to turn BTC into an institutional reserve asset with controlled volatility.  Older players still trade BTC as a low-liquid global collateral that can be moved through derivatives, leverage, and crowd psychology. The reserves on the exchanges are 2.21 million BTC, and this is a minimum for 7 years.

[tygeade]

These types of "could" questions always pisses me off, because we literally can't possibly know this ever. Sure it could happen, or maybe it won't, how could we know that? Like some dude with a lot of bitcoins could decide to sell it all, starting a sell off chain reaction, how could we know this? Maybe tomorrow Microstrategy wakes up and says they to cash out some portion, is there a 100% guarantee that they won't? There is none, there will never be one.

So we have to face, these "could it..." questions are always answered , "it could, or maybe it won't", because we do not know. If you are really worrying about what could happen to bitcoin tomorrow, then you are not fit to be a bitcoiner or invest only what you can bear on the event of losses and do not imagine something by yourself. No investment has zero risk, so if you understand this, you can be a profitable investor in long run.

[Odusko]

I remember how, on April 1st, Bitcoin forum transformed into a forum dedicated to the dollar.

However, I am convinced that there is a grain of truth in every joke. So, could a moment arrive when all major Bitcoin holders exchange their coins for dollars - and the price doesn't merely drop to, say, $40,000 (as many expect), but crashes all the way down to $10,000 or even lower?

Bitcoin at $10,000 is not a crash price yet, and we shouldn't write off the possibility of getting to such price, but even if it does, bitcoin can not be taken over by dollar's a d not matter how deep the bitcoin market crash, dollar's can never become and hedge over bitcoin for any reason, and what make bitcoin price to crash down so significantly will have crashed the traditional currency more.

[M47AK16]

I remember how, on April 1st, Bitcoin forum transformed into a forum dedicated to the dollar.

However, I am convinced that there is a grain of truth in every joke. So, could a moment arrive when all major Bitcoin holders exchange their coins for dollars - and the price doesn't merely drop to, say, $40,000 (as many expect), but crashes all the way down to $10,000 or even lower?

Bitcoin at $10,000 is not a crash price yet, and we shouldn't write off the possibility of getting to such price, but even if it does, bitcoin can not be taken over by dollar's a d not matter how deep the bitcoin market crash, dollar's can never become and hedge over bitcoin for any reason, and what make bitcoin price to crash down so significantly will have crashed the traditional currency more.

While I know that it is technically possible, I can write off the possibility of reaching 10k per bitcoin price because we have way too many big whales in the market who got to be whales because they were capable of buying these investments and holding for decades.

How do you think Warren Buffet got rich for example, not by investing crazy amounts and quickly making a profit, dude makes on average 20% return a year, nothing super crazy, and the only reason he is this rich, is because he averaged that for multiple decades, hell dude is almost 100 years old by now, he is reaching over 80 years of doing this if he lives a bit longer.

[fuguebtc]

I remember how, on April 1st, Bitcoin forum transformed into a forum dedicated to the dollar.

However, I am convinced that there is a grain of truth in every joke. So, could a moment arrive when all major Bitcoin holders exchange their coins for dollars - and the price doesn't merely drop to, say, $40,000 (as many expect), but crashes all the way down to $10,000 or even lower?

Bitcoin at $10,000 is not a crash price yet, and we shouldn't write off the possibility of getting to such price, but even if it does, bitcoin can not be taken over by dollar's a d not matter how deep the bitcoin market crash, dollar's can never become and hedge over bitcoin for any reason, and what make bitcoin price to crash down so significantly will have crashed the traditional currency more.

While I know that it is technically possible, I can write off the possibility of reaching 10k per bitcoin price because we have way too many big whales in the market who got to be whales because they were capable of buying these investments and holding for decades.

Yes, the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $10k at this point is very low, almost 0. But do not assume that just because many whales and big institutions are holding it, it can never happen. What guarantees that if something bad happens to Bitcoin, they will step in to support the price instead of massively selling off?

Remember that their goal in entering the market is also profit, not to protect bitcoin at all costs. So, once their interests are threatened, they will flee and leave the market immediately.

[justdimin]

the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $10k at this point is very low, almost 0. But do not assume that just because many whales and big institutions are holding it, it can never happen. What guarantees that if something bad happens to Bitcoin, they will step in to support the price instead of massively selling off?

Remember that their goal in entering the market is also profit, not to protect bitcoin at all costs. So, once their interests are threatened, they will flee and leave the market immediately.

While you are right that it's not impossible, it is also obvious to all of us that it would be "near" impossible. For bitcoin to drop to 10*k or lower, there needs to be something technical that is going wrong.

Like if somehow it's easier to hack wallets or something, or like maybe quantum pc's are creaking phrases or whatever. That is the only way that it will go there, I do not think that any other normal regular way would make it that low. Even if big places like USA ends up banning it, I doubt it will get there quickly, maybe it might, but we are not seeing that to happen anytime soon either.

[Pandorak]

(...)

While you are right that it's not impossible, it is also obvious to all of us that it would be "near" impossible. For bitcoin to drop to 10*k or lower, there needs to be something technical that is going wrong.

Like if somehow it's easier to hack wallets or something, or like maybe quantum pc's are creaking phrases or whatever. That is the only way that it will go there, I do not think that any other normal regular way would make it that low. Even if big places like USA ends up banning it, I doubt it will get there quickly, maybe it might, but we are not seeing that to happen anytime soon either.

I would venture to say that the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $10k during the current bear market is very low, given the large number of major institutions holding significant amounts of Bitcoin. I believe that as long as they continue to hold onto it, a price of $10k remains highly unlikely. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin price hit a low of $16k, likely around late 2022 to early 2023, that drop occurred after Bitcoin set a new ATH at $68k. Currently, Bitcoin highest price is around $126k, my personal analysis suggests the deepest potential decline might be around $30k–$40k, but i hope that never happens.

[bitgolden]

I would venture to say that the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $10k during the current bear market is very low, given the large number of major institutions holding significant amounts of Bitcoin. I believe that as long as they continue to hold onto it, a price of $10k remains highly unlikely. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin price hit a low of $16k, likely around late 2022 to early 2023, that drop occurred after Bitcoin set a new ATH at $68k. Currently, Bitcoin highest price is around $126k, my personal analysis suggests the deepest potential decline might be around $30k–$40k, but i hope that never happens.

Yeah, we do not have enough sellers because major whales are holding out and they are not going to sell, and as long as they do not sell, we do not have enough sellers to make that go low.

On top of that, they are wealthy people, that is why they are whales, which means if it ever reached too low, they would just buy more, and grow their accumulation phase and it would not be all that complicated, just use their wealth to buy as much as possible when it's low, so it doesn't go lower.