What is your worst case scenario for Bitcoin right now?

[the_rrockk]

Bitcoin has been doing well lately, but most people are only talking about the upside . I’m just thinking about the other side. What could go wrong from here?
For me, a worst case would be losing important support and seeing a bigger drop again, maybe if macro conditions get worse. I’m not saying it will happen, just trying to look at both sides.

What do you think is a realistic downside from here?

[BitMaxz]

Are you still not satisfied in your previous thread? It seems you are still asking if the price is going to drop or not.

Don't expect much on weekends because the volume is weak. We should wait until Monday, between the NY sessions where most of the traders are online.
For now, I am neutral here since the price was rejected 3 times in the past week, but the buy volume is still high while the sell volume is weak.
If Monday shows more buying volume, the market is likely going to break the $80k level, but if not and no one supports it, expect the price to drop.

[EarnOnVictor]

What could go wrong from here?
For me, a worst case would be losing important support and seeing a bigger drop again, maybe if macro conditions get worse. I’m not saying it will happen, just trying to look at both sides.

You've pointed it out rightly yourself, as it will be catastrophic if Bitcoin breaks some support levels. And as I've always said recently, the EMA50 is the major support level that I respect right now, as it was instrumental in the current rise. The level is around $65,650, and if it could be broken lower, it would be devastating for Bitcoin in the long-term scope.

What do you think is a realistic downside from here?

If $65,650 gives way and $59,835 (the year-low) is also broken, $50,000 is then possible.

[TheUltraElite]

There is nothing of a worst cases now, you have to learn how to handle the market:

See there are three possibilities.

1. Bitcoin price goes up - then you sell your held coins at prices above the buying price and book the profit.
2. Bitcoin price goes down - then you spend your fiat to buy at lower price and start holding them
3. Bitcoin price goes stagnant/sideways - just hold till either 1/2 happens.

Tackle trading in this manner and it will never become a headache, also dont think about trading all the time in the day. Have your own activities to keep your mind busy and come back to trading once a while, fresh.

[bangjoe]

Bitcoin has been doing well lately, but most people are only talking about the upside . I’m just thinking about the other side. What could go wrong from here?
For me, a worst case would be losing important support and seeing a bigger drop again, maybe if macro conditions get worse. I’m not saying it will happen, just trying to look at both sides.

What do you think is a realistic downside from here?

The worst scenario that I think of is that the war in the middle east explodes and involves many countries participating in the conflict so that economic and energy paralysis occurs in this world, all of this will affect the sentiment of bitcoin investors and they will certainly panic so that it can make bitcoin fall deeply.
 
But it needs to be understood that it is only limited to my hallucinations, hopefully nothing happens and the world returns to spin peacefully and safely so that our economy can grow in any part of the world and many people will return to investing in Bitcoin.
Technically there is a potential reversal when it will touch resistance above $80k a little then we will correct again to strengthen the support step.

[ReCap57]

Below $28,000 is unfortunately possible this year, and above $95,000 might happen first. We are currently way overdue for any type of exciting move, then almost anything is possible up or down. Why? We are in new territory with the global debt bubble due to collapse (should be good for BTC) and so many other things going on. Also, Trump has turned out to be a mixed bag of junk with the Feds backing away from most action, but the reputation of crypto in the mainstream has been heavily damaged. We need some trading action soon, please.

Bitcoin has been doing well lately, but most people are only talking about the upside . I’m just thinking about the other side. What could go wrong from here?
For me, a worst case would be losing important support and seeing a bigger drop again, maybe if macro conditions get worse. I’m not saying it will happen, just trying to look at both sides.

What do you think is a realistic downside from here?

[fredericktaylor]

Bitcoin has been doing well lately, but most people are only talking about the upside . I’m just thinking about the other side. What could go wrong from here?
For me, a worst case would be losing important support and seeing a bigger drop again, maybe if macro conditions get worse. I’m not saying it will happen, just trying to look at both sides.

What do you think is a realistic downside from here?

Depending on the needs of the general people, the price of Bitcoin increases and decreases, this process of increasing and decreasing the price of Bitcoin will be active, I think it is normal. I do not see anything to be disappointed here, before trading, we need to understand that we need to gain the right knowledge, understand the volatility of the market, use strategies and patiently enter the market at the right time and manage our greed and exit at the right time. When you use each step correctly in a orderly manner, it will result in good results. The reason for fear is when you start trading without knowing or understanding anything and thinking about quick profits, it is very risky.

[sergiorus]

i don't really see any really bad scenarios for Bitcoin here. both fundamentals and technicals are too strong and the price has already corrected substantially.
the worst case scenario is probably long sideways but for some people that's actually the best case scenario. awful for anyone trying to leverage trade it though.

[jossiel]

What do you think is a realistic downside from here?

Realistic is that every thing that becomes a news from the other markets can get bitcoin affected.

For example, the news that we have for the global oil trade and market through the Strait of Hormuz, it affected Bitcoin lately right?

But whatever is happening right now as it goes back to $80k mark then what do we look at it right now, is that still a downside? maybe not.

[ivrynx113]

the worst case, is that it will stop, it will come to a halt. Just like what other currencies preceded it. When the value becomes too much, it will be better to keep it aside, knowing that you have something of value. If you look at previous currencies before they minted their coins, made of gold, silver copper and other precious minerals, and what stopped it was paper money. Once the fiat currency came with no back up of any gold reserves, people used it, rely on it, it became part of their lives, and as for the old coins, they were set aside but we all know it has value. Let us hope the bitcoin will not turn out that way, knowing that at this, things happen very fast.

[BitMaxz]

Are you still not satisfied in your previous thread? It seems you are still asking if the price is going to drop or not.

Don't expect much on weekends because the volume is weak. We should wait until Monday, between the NY sessions where most of the traders are online.
For now, I am neutral here since the price was rejected 3 times in the past week, but the buy volume is still high while the sell volume is weak.
If Monday shows more buying volume, the market is likely going to break the $80k level, but if not and no one supports it, expect the price to drop.

Good point. Do you think the current buy volume is strong enough to break it, or still not convincing yet?

The market is attempting to break through the current resistance, but as you can see, they are slowly eating liquidity while squeezing the price.
We are still in the critical zone, retracement level, or golden zone of the bearish Fibonacci series.
Since March, the $80k level has been my target retracement level; if the price continues to squeeze, it will most likely manipulate its way closer to the golden zone until $83k, but this price is my 61.8% golden zone resistance level if the price rises above $80k.

So, as traders, we're in a tight spot, and going long is risky. I might wait for the golden zone area to be broken and then use it as a strong support .
And in terms of volume, it is not convincing yet, and there has recently been a lot of selling volume, which is a bad sign for the start of this week.

[Cryptohygenic]

Bitcoin has been doing well lately, but most people are only talking about the upside . I’m just thinking about the other side. What could go wrong from here?
For me, a worst case would be losing important support and seeing a bigger drop again, maybe if macro conditions get worse. I’m not saying it will happen, just trying to look at both sides.

What do you think is a realistic downside from here?

I don't find any reason to be panicked for from this angle of instigation because the macro economy is irregularly foreseen to be a driving influence in the micro economy and there on, having the loopholes of influencing the bitcoin market.
Moreover the global economy such that results to inflations had also reshaped the psychological acts of bitcoin users especially the traders and those expecting to sell in the short time.
Long term investors and those targeting to buy at lower when price falls are the ones that stays focus on their mission and as the macro condition eases, so the supporting level  breaks the resilience for up trends.

[crwth]

You know what the worst thing that could happen to BTC is? It's the regulatory and legal impact!
^{(Imagine the KYC/AML enforcment or anything regulatory that happens, I think it's one of the worst things)}

Possibly more liquidity wipeout with so many people leveraging and then large liquidations due to the high open interest. It will then be forced to sell, and then the price will go down.

This is just from the top of my head. It's scary 

[LogitechMouse]

Are you still not satisfied in your previous thread? It seems you are still asking if the price is going to drop or not.

Don't expect much on weekends because the volume is weak. We should wait until Monday, between the NY sessions where most of the traders are online.
For now, I am neutral here since the price was rejected 3 times in the past week, but the buy volume is still high while the sell volume is weak.
If Monday shows more buying volume, the market is likely going to break the $80k level, but if not and no one supports it, expect the price to drop.

Did he created previous threads? Hmmm maybe he doesn't believe what anybody's saying here then, or maybe he got overwhelmed by the numerous replies that he needed to create another thread.

Kidding aside, looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin, there's buying volume yesterday and it pushed the price towards the $80,000, and it already surpassed my daily resistance of around $78,000. Now the one question has been answered which is "It ended the day not above, but very close to $80,000.", the next question is "Will it stay above it for a week?" because bulls must sustain it as well, and not just push the price up.

Like you, I don't also expect too much movement during the weekends but we are at the start of the week now, and it started pretty much fine with the trend continuing to go towards the upside. It's too early to say though that the bulls are in control, and TBH, I'm already asking myself this question. "Are we in a bear market really?"

[GreatArkansas]

Look at it now, we broke $80,000. Plus, it's the opening of the current month. For me, this month will be bullish. We could either go to $100,000 immediately, but I'm not rushing it. Healthy price movement is good. Why I say we can easily get to $100,000? Because in the past there was no significant support and resistance on this level, that's why. Next stop is $100,000, or we go back to the $60,000 level.

[jcojci]

The thing that go wrong will be happen if your scenario is not happen as you want. We should happy seeing Bitcoin price can increase and finally reach $80,000. We hopes this can continue and back to $100,000 although no exact time. But this could gives confident to the investors especially new investors as they can see the profit will start big.

This month could be bullish but we need to be careful as no guarantee the price will increase higher. But we should optimist and waiting for the next high price.

[slaman29]

Look at it now, we broke $80,000. Plus, it's the opening of the current month. For me, this month will be bullish. We could either go to $100,000 immediately, but I'm not rushing it. Healthy price movement is good. Why I say we can easily get to $100,000? Because in the past there was no significant support and resistance on this level, that's why. Next stop is $100,000, or we go back to the $60,000 level.

Yep, makes sense. I still think we go back to $60,000 first before $100,000 tho. No technical ideas from me just pure psychology here, but at times in between ATHs, that is a stronger force for me (emotions). In this way, it kinda feels like it does not make sense to go to $100k if there isn't gonna be a serious attempt to break ATH.

But it makes sense for many traders long term to go and break a new low first, to get the support it takes for new ATH push next couple of years.

Either way doesn't matter for most of us I guess

[Finestream]

When the market is bearish, bitcoin price will drop naturally, and it's not something new. It's not bad for bitcoin either, in fact it opens opportunity for new investors to enter the market and buy bitcoin at an affordable price. That way, they can maximize their bitcoin accumulation and only sell when the market turns into bullish.

However, what I think as the worst case scenario for bitcoin is that if there will be technological failure in the future, severe global regulatory suppression or probably a complete loss for user trust. Bitcoin will certainly experience a maximum potential downside if ever.

[AmoreJaz]

You know what the worst thing that could happen to BTC is? It's the regulatory and legal impact!
^{(Imagine the KYC/AML enforcment or anything regulatory that happens, I think it's one of the worst things)}

Possibly more liquidity wipeout with so many people leveraging and then large liquidations due to the high open interest. It will then be forced to sell, and then the price will go down.

This is just from the top of my head. It's scary  

But since no one can control the btc market, it would take a very large amount of money to somehow make a dent in the trading market. That is why, I don't think any holder even the big one will try to inject huge amount just to make a movement in the market. Also, if they will try to do it, would be temporary movement in the market, so it is just futile to do this.

This is why btc has advantage over the other alts. Other alts can be controlled or manipulated by few investors. Whereas, with btc, it would take huge amount of money just to make a small movement in the market. So why bother to do that? For what benefits?

[DanWalker]

Bitcoin has been doing well lately, but most people are only talking about the upside . I’m just thinking about the other side. What could go wrong from here?
For me, a worst case would be losing important support and seeing a bigger drop again, maybe if macro conditions get worse. I’m not saying it will happen, just trying to look at both sides.

What do you think is a realistic downside from here?

I dont know if that scenario is likely to happen, but if it does, it wouldnt be so bad. If that happen, it would even be a good thing because we would have more opportunities to buy bitcoin at a lower price.
As investor, we should always prepare for all possible scenarios instead of just expecting things to go exactly as planned.
The market doesnt move according to our expectations, it moves in its own way.

If that scenario plays out, I expect it to drop to $50k, and that would be another good price to accumulate more at.