BTC Sentiment Poll for May

[liasbaa]

The price of Bitcoin has been solidified at its current position above $80K, because in this situation of war and economic recession, it is a good idea that the price of Bitcoin will naturally improve, but the third week of May will come and the first weeks of the quarter have been quite good.
The price of Bitcoin in May is very different from the price of Bitcoin in the previous month, it touched $82K in mid-May, but I think the price of Bitcoin will definitely touch the $90K level in the last quarter of May.

There is a fear of starting a war again. The current state of a possible ceasefire between Iran and America is very weak. Israel has increased its stockpile of weapons to attack Iran again. Iran is preparing for a more terrible situation. If the war situation does not improve, the price of oil will increase and the price of every product will increase due to this. Global financial instability negatively affects trade as well as the possibility of a country's economy falling into a risky situation.

Although the current price of Bitcoin is at $80k, the rise in price depends on the global stable situation. There is an ongoing conflict in the world over the control of oil trade and maintaining the political and economic control of countries geographically. If those conditions do not improve, the price of Bitcoin may go into another correction again. I think that a peaceful resolution to the war situation will happen very soon and the price of Bitcoin will rise to a bullish level.

[FanEagle]

We have seen it have green days and have red days, we need to wait some more. We are not even half way done with the money and for some reason people think that it will be done fine, it is not going to be, it is not going to be the same. We should be considering how this is not going to be easy for people and we should expect this to be different situation at hand.

I understand it may not be that easy to make this difference, but the reality is that we should be seeing how this could be different for many people. I understand it is not easy to make this change yet, but the reality is that we have some time before the month ends and we can't make a decision just yet. Most said yes, but I am still refraining from that.

[summonerrk]

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator. The on-chain "traffic light" is currently showing green. The indicator looks at real transactions on the blockchain - BTC holders are currently in profit or at a loss. It combines several metrics (MVRV, NUPL, SOPR) into one P&L Index and compares it with the annual average.
Color: Green (early bullish) → orange → red (overheating) → blue (bearish). This is not a price forecast, but a market phase.
Now, for the first time since March 2023, the indicator has re-entered the Early Bull green zone.
The price is holding higher lows, ETF inflows are positive, sentiment is recovering - a classic way out of bearish consolidation.
Bitcoin still depends on the Macro: Fed policy, DXY, liquidity flows.

[tokeweed]

^  From the how the chart is looking like right now, it honestly feels like it's gonna happen like 2022 when there was a rejection.  I mean just look at it and as you said there's the macro stuff to think about.

But dunno tho.  All I wanna say is stay safe out there everybody.  I'd be wary of going all in with my whole stack at this point in the game.

[yudi09]

^  From the how the chart is looking like right now, it honestly feels like it's gonna happen like 2022 when there was a rejection.  I mean just look at it and as you said there's the macro stuff to think about.

But dunno tho.  All I wanna say is stay safe out there everybody.  I'd be wary of going all in with my whole stack at this point in the game.

OP, the May 2026 closing this time might not end in the green, judging by how the market is reacting.
I agree that 2026 feels like it’s going to be a lot like 2022, even with some positive news—like the UAE allowing government fees to be paid in Bitcoin.
If it doesn’t turn green either, we can conclude that price movements aren’t driven by news but rather by the strength of supply and demand.

Yes. Stay cautious. Holding remains the best option since this chart is still within the buy zone if the highest target is above $85,000.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

^  From the how the chart is looking like right now, it honestly feels like it's gonna happen like 2022 when there was a rejection.  I mean just look at it and as you said there's the macro stuff to think about.

But dunno tho.  All I wanna say is stay safe out there everybody.  I'd be wary of going all in with my whole stack at this point in the game.

And then suddenly, the market turns red, and as you have said, it's a clear rejection so there's no $85k at the horizon at least for this month as again, there could be speculations who might have sold when it reaches $80k-$82k.

But still very early though, we have two weeks, who knows. Maybe the Clarity act will pass? Or maybe not? I think this news could bring positive and bullish sentiments otherwise a rejection will cause damage.

[tokeweed]

^  Yup and just like that it's below 80k again.  Lolol.  I kinda feel like I jinxed it with this poll.    But we'll see...  We still have a couple more weeks to go before the month ends.  So yeah, hopefully we'll see BTC trend back up above 80k and stay there once and for all. 

And another thing, I hope the guys who went long didn't get spooked by the current pa and are thinking about selling as soon as it goes back above 80k.    That would suck.

[cyberninja2]

And then suddenly, the market turns red, and as you have said, it's a clear rejection so there's no $85k at the horizon at least for this month as again, there could be speculations who might have sold when it reaches $80k-$82k.

I believe this month's market has only seen a slight increase of $82,000. This is because the price increase reached $82,000 last month and this month with no potential for further increases. This is a form of speculation suggesting a price increase could occur at the end of this month. This is why many are currently accumulating. With relatively affordable prices some are opting to accumulate. If the predicted price actually happens they will certainly make a small profit even if they don't sell at that time but rather choose to invest in the long term.

[Zanab247]

We have seen it have green days and have red days, we need to wait some more. We are not even half way done with the money and for some reason people think that it will be done fine, it is not going to be, it is not going to be the same. We should be considering how this is not going to be easy for people and we should expect this to be different situation at hand.

It will never be easy for hodlers or investors, because they have to plan well to be able to know how many months or years they are going to hodl their BTC before they can change their minds to sell. I know that some people are afraid of this current dump of the price of BTC few hours ago, because they are waiting for the green light to remain stable before the end of this week before they can sell than to seen a massive dump that happened to make the price to dump below $80k.

Despite what is happening now it will not make the red light to push people to experience bear market again, because there are some signs that the red light will turn to green light before the end of this week and it will make some not to focus on what is happening now. I guess $100k is possible in this month of May and it will make some to sell their BTC to earn what will make them to increase their capital to buy BTC in the future.

[laspol65]

And then suddenly, the market turns red, and as you have said, it's a clear rejection so there's no $85k at the horizon at least for this month as again, there could be speculations who might have sold when it reaches $80k-$82k.

I believe this month's market has only seen a slight increase of $82,000. This is because the price increase reached $82,000 last month and this month with no potential for further increases. This is a form of speculation suggesting a price increase could occur at the end of this month. This is why many are currently accumulating. With relatively affordable prices some are opting to accumulate. If the predicted price actually happens they will certainly make a small profit even if they don't sell at that time but rather choose to invest in the long term.

Look at the current Bitcoin price being dumped, this time has been compared to a bear market. However, we are seeing a lot of Bitcoin price growth at this time, because in the past months, many people were dumping Bitcoin prices, in the current situation, the Bitcoin price is very high and is 80k dollars plus.
So the more we move towards the future, the more Bitcoin prices are going up, so this is a good time to buy rather than sell. So that the longer you hold your Bitcoin investment, the more likely it is to be profitable and you will be able to earn more benefits.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

And then suddenly, the market turns red, and as you have said, it's a clear rejection so there's no $85k at the horizon at least for this month as again, there could be speculations who might have sold when it reaches $80k-$82k.

I believe this month's market has only seen a slight increase of $82,000. This is because the price increase reached $82,000 last month and this month with no potential for further increases. This is a form of speculation suggesting a price increase could occur at the end of this month. This is why many are currently accumulating. With relatively affordable prices some are opting to accumulate. If the predicted price actually happens they will certainly make a small profit even if they don't sell at that time but rather choose to invest in the long term.

Yes, I did see the market going to $82k because of the positive news on Clarity Act.

It has been on the Congress already and as far as I know, it will be elevated to the Senate to sign it to make it a law.

And Trump has the majority on the Senate so for sure this is going to be an smooth and seamless. If everything is official, then I think that price could go as high as $85k as another good news is that SEC chair has been approved as well with a pro-crypto approach.

Trump going to China with most of the biggest company's CEO is also very positive news not just in crypto, but all other financial markets.

[cyberninja2]

Look at the current Bitcoin price being dumped, this time has been compared to a bear market. However, we are seeing a lot of Bitcoin price growth at this time, because in the past months, many people were dumping Bitcoin prices, in the current situation, the Bitcoin price is very high and is 80k dollars plus.
So the more we move towards the future, the more Bitcoin prices are going up, so this is a good time to buy rather than sell. So that the longer you hold your Bitcoin investment, the more likely it is to be profitable and you will be able to earn more benefits.

That's why we shouldn't assume that when the market is in decline we must be patient in refraining from selling our Bitcoin because prices will always change and no one's predictions are ever correct.

Sometimes many of us find it difficult to resist selling when the market price is declining and many people panic when market conditions like those we discussed occur. However if they had a better understanding of market conditions they might not feel as panicked. Therefore when investing we must truly understand what will happen otherwise we will always panic and become frustrated.
What we should do now is buy by increasing the amount of BTC we own. The current price will no longer be a benchmark in the next few months as prices will continue to fluctuate. Accumulating at the current price may be profitable in the future. Many say that market prices will increase at the end of the month and the beginning of next month. Signs like this present an opportunity for everyone to accumulate Bitcoin.

[pawel7777]

In another topic, I have a little poll that, so far, shows Bitcointalk's sentiment to be mostly bearish, but I see that's not necessarily the case here, as the vast majority of voters expect Bitcoin to trade above $80k by the end of May.

Currently, we dipped below the $80k barrier and are trading just above $78k. Inability to hold above $80k would indicate that we are indeed in a long-term bear trend, which is expected if we believe the 4-year cycle pattern still holds.
This little dip is in line with traditional markets, which also dropped a little in the last day. Both Nasdaq and S&P noted a 1-1.5% daily drop, but, unlike Bitcoin, they are still in green when it comes to weekly return. This further proves that Bitcoin is highly correlated with the stock market, but with higher volatility, especially when it comes to downward movements: when stocks get hit, Bitcoin gets hit harder.
There were moments in the past when it looked like Bitcoin could decouple from stocks and go its own way, but I think this is now harder to achieve due to the price being dictated mostly by the spot ETFs.

[Danica22]

This further proves that Bitcoin is highly correlated with the stock market, but with higher volatility, especially when it comes to downward movements: when stocks get hit, Bitcoin gets hit harder.
There were moments in the past when it looked like Bitcoin could decouple from stocks and go its own way, but I think this is now harder to achieve due to the price being dictated mostly by the spot ETFs.

Although this correlation is not always consistent, it is true that most of the time Bitcoin tends to move in the same direction as the stock.

In my observation, this correlation has become more noticeable since Bitcoin ETF were approved. That mean that as long as the market remains largely driven by capital inflows and outflows from ETFs, this correlation will not disappear anytime soon.

[STT]

BTC trading back to monthly average now having fallen below the weekly moving average and failling on its recent highs at the 200 day average.   Its clearly going to be taking some time, probably this whole year to turn this situation around.  I know this is a poll for May but seems we are slower in movement then just one month, its going to be some time.

I wont be confident until the 200 day average is trending back upwards again, right now every day brings it lower.  Its not all bad but its a clear reflection more work has to be done over consecutive months probably six positive or near level not negative months and we'll be back to a positive proper bull trend in BTC.  As such I wont guess we move much more in May especially though its not been bad.


I'm voting no and its a very late vote & I feel like its almost too negative of me to vote this way; I remain positive overall and I wouldn't switch from that unless we fell below the March high as a tide mark.       
  A pullback is normal action, so I think we challenge the 200 day further out early June perhaps.