Oil up by 3% after Iran claims it fires US warship; US denies report

[el kaka22]

It has gone down a bit thankfully, but the sad thing is that when it goes up, people price their products higher, but when it goes down, they do not suddenly drop the price. They know that they can say "well the oil price went up, so inflation made everything higher, we had to increase the price" which they are not wrong to do, they are right, yes when oil price goes up for long term, you have to increase your prices as well, due to inflation.

But the cheeky thing is, they do not drop it when the oil price drops, which should make things cheaper. So that is why the system we have just makes things go up and up, and sellers are taking advantage of the situation and causes the situation to change for the worse.

[aoluain]

Yes its just hovering around or just over $101 per barrel for Brent Crude ATM, I came down
after the "news" today that the US and Iran were "very close" to a peace deal which of course
is pure bullshit but none the less it managed to move the market.

There is manipulation of the markets going on on a weekly basis because Trump is very sensitive
to what the markets do.

I cant understand how at this point that the oil prices are not a whole lot higher?

I just heard today that european airlines have cut 13,000 flights, so why is the crisis not reflected
more in the market I wonder?

[Bushdark]

There will no peace for now because the US still have plans to attack Iran and this want might prolong and Israel might lose more than they have ever thought will be damaged by Iran because there are news that Iran attacked the Israeli natural gas depot which will be a problem for them to export their gases to other countries to make money. The Israel and Iran economy might suffer severe loses due to attacks on personal assets. Very soon Russia is going to be making huge profits from selling their oil and gas to European countries to generate huge profits.

[coupable]

I just heard today that european airlines have cut 13,000 flights, so why is the crisis not reflected
more in the market I wonder?

OPEC which is formed by the biggest oil producers didn't start to use their reserves. There is a shortage of supplies due to disruptions in distribution channels, but it is not a stage of deficit. In addition to 2 other main factors:
1] The russian oil has found his way to the global market again despite the sanctions which help balance the market resistance.
2] The UAE left the OPEC organization which means more production will be sooner which recover hope in the market again.

I live in a small economically poor country and the oil price wasn't reflected since the crisis has started more than 2 months ago. I can't expect the situation to remain like this if the war continues at anytime sooner.

[free-bit.co.in]

I just heard today that european airlines have cut 13,000 flights, so why is the crisis not reflected
more in the market I wonder?

OPEC which is formed by the biggest oil producers didn't start to use their reserves. There is a shortage of supplies due to disruptions in distribution channels, but it is not a stage of deficit. In addition to 2 other main factors:
1] The russian oil has found his way to the global market again despite the sanctions which help balance the market resistance.
2] The UAE left the OPEC organization which means more production will be sooner which recover hope in the market again.

I live in a small economically poor country and the oil price wasn't reflected since the crisis has started more than 2 months ago. I can't expect the situation to remain like this if the war continues at anytime sooner.

3] The US, the world's largest oil producer is also increasing its export output. Before the war, the US exported an average of about 4 million barrel of oil per day. But that number has risen to over 6 million barrel/day.

Combining these 3 factor, it is clear that the oil supply has been partially offset and the shortage is not as severe as many of us feared. However, OPEC's decision not to increase oil production to maintain high prices is a worrying sign for the global economy.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/us-crude-exports-surge-to-record-above-6-million-barrels-a-day

[TastyChillySauce00]

But the cheeky thing is, they do not drop it when the oil price drops, which should make things cheaper. So that is why the system we have just makes things go up and up, and sellers are taking advantage of the situation and causes the situation to change for the worse.

Yes, that's the thing. Gas station set the price whatever they want and when the oil price is going down significantly, they will say they won't reduce the price simply because they need to sell the oil which were purchased at higher price earlier.
I will expect the impact of this war to be long lasting. The price has been on the higher side for a long time already and honestly even if the crude oil price going down, it will take a while for everything to go back to where it was price wise.

[X-ray]

I'm only wondering why a single nation or two will be a determinant to what others fate might be,

Economics of countries around the world is depending to each other, some depending on other country to keep running their nation and in this case we are talking about oil, everything that every nation needs and not a lot of nation could produce million barrels within their domestic production.

Of course a single nation or two will affect the world so much when that is the case. Not to mention USA's economy is half of the world already.

That is why nation should strive to find for sources of energy not depending on one distribution line only and if could, drill their own oil. Only lately we finally realized how fragile some countries are.

[Fortify]

   
     Fars reported on Monday, 4th May 2026 citing local sources that ​it had struck a U.S. warship intending to pass through the Strait and forced it to turn ​back. U.S. Central Command denied that any U.S. Navy ships had been struck on Monday.
  
      "The path for prices remains skewed to the upside as long as flows through the Strait remain restricted," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

        President Donald Trump said the U.S. would begin efforts to assist ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, but prices stayed above $100 a barrel, ‌with no ⁠peace deal in sight and shipping through the strategic waterway still constrained.
 Ki
Source : https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-after-trump-says-us-would-help-free-ships-stranded-strait-hormuz-2026-05-03/

Honestly at this point it looks like a relentless pump and dump scheme, which happens when you have the world's biggest conman in charge of the richest country in the planet. He can easily pass information to his family on when markets will plummet and when they will rise, because he is in charge of it. It's clear he has no balls to further escalate this war and is trying to extract himself from it, because it never had a clearly definable end goal, plus Israel is going to try to keep the US trapped while they're in the region.

[Haunebu]

Honestly, I stopped giving a shit about whatever both sides state regarding the war since my primary concern right now is trying to get used to the current broken economy where flight prices etc soared duplicating COVID era problems sadly.

The morons who voted for that orange clown are also struggling to adjust to this new landscape which serves them right. I don't see this unnecessary war ending anytime soon.

[coupable]

I just heard today that european airlines have cut 13,000 flights, so why is the crisis not reflected
more in the market I wonder?

OPEC which is formed by the biggest oil producers didn't start to use their reserves. There is a shortage of supplies due to disruptions in distribution channels, but it is not a stage of deficit. In addition to 2 other main factors:
1] The russian oil has found his way to the global market again despite the sanctions which help balance the market resistance.
2] The UAE left the OPEC organization which means more production will be sooner which recover hope in the market again.

I live in a small economically poor country and the oil price wasn't reflected since the crisis has started more than 2 months ago. I can't expect the situation to remain like this if the war continues at anytime sooner.

3] The US, the world's largest oil producer is also increasing its export output. Before the war, the US exported an average of about 4 million barrel of oil per day. But that number has risen to over 6 million barrel/day.

Combining these 3 factor, it is clear that the oil supply has been partially offset and the shortage is not as severe as many of us feared. However, OPEC's decision not to increase oil production to maintain high prices is a worrying sign for the global economy.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/us-crude-exports-surge-to-record-above-6-million-barrels-a-day

1> The USA has colonolized Venuizella and put its economic influence over the oil sector. This also can be added as a push factor. The USA increased oil production before starting the war to support the state general budget that will be affected by the war. Nobody expected Iran to resist that much or to respond in such a powerful manner causing a global paralysis.

2> The OPEC organization also didn't expect the Irani response by closing completely the Strait of Hermuz. Then suddenly all the Gulf States become paralysed as Iran target their oil production locution and cut the transportation channel through Hermuz. OPEC found itself unable to maintain production levels, let alone increase production more.

[bitgolden]

Both sides are clearly liars, so we can never know what is the truth in this. USA acts as if they are gods children and nothing can touch them, so even if you literally sink their ship, they will act as if that ship never existed. Iran on the other hand act as if they are the mighest heros, and they sunk a million ships, which we know is a lie.

So in this case we literally have no idea which one is telling the truth. In either case, that does not matter, market decided, ship is hit, and strait is closed, because oil is higher.

[Swordsoffreedom]

The morons who voted for that orange clown are also struggling to adjust to this new landscape which serves them right. I don't see this unnecessary war ending anytime soon.

Personally, I believe that regardless of who become president of the United States, invasion of Venezuela and Iran are inevitable. Trump is simply representing and doing what the US government want, what is happening is not solely his personal intention

China is becoming more powerful than ever, and the dominance of the USD and the petrodollar empire is under greater threat than ever before. If the United States does not act to protect its position, it will lose its superpower status.

They never wanted a multipolar world to form.

[BALIK]

Given the current situation, predictions that oil prices will reach $180 could become a reality. That would be a disaster for the global economy.

With this information on the increasing price of oil, I think it is possible for someone to start planning to be somehow less dependent on oil even while living in the City, if you are financially comfortable enough to change your oil powered vehicles to fully electric, and then switch to using solar panels for power, it can be a long term solution to reduce how much you are affected by the rise in prices around you.   
Also to think of it, What ways also can a normal citizen benefit from crisis like this?

It is no coincidence that oil is considered the lifeblood of the modern economy.

Switching to electric vehicles, or solar power will not help much. Because when oil prices rise, the costs of transportation, production, and the entire supply chain will also increase. Inflation and rising prices will make our lives more difficult.
Especially for countries heavily reliant on oil import, if oil prices rise to $180-200, the economy could fall into a serious crisis. That is what is truly terrifying.

[Minor Miner]

No one really knows what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz because there are conflicting reports from both sides. Iran says one thing and the United States denies it, or vice versa, the United States says one thing and Iran denies it. No one knows the truth, and I think they are both lying.😠

In any case, unless the war there ends and the strait is fully opened, as well as the naval blockade on Iran is lifted, tensions in the region of utmost importance to the world’s energy will not subside, and energy prices will continue to rise, and with them all other commodities will rise as well.

Indeed, nobody knows what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, the information provided by either side is unreliable.  None of them were telling the truth, they were only making statement that benefited themselves.

However, looking at the reaction of the financial market in general and the fact that oil prices are still quite high. This indicates that the situation remains very bad and there are no signs of easing tension.

I do not know exactly whats going on, but not only economists but even many trader are analyzing and predicting that oil prices will continue to rise. This really raises concerns that the worst is yet to come.

Yes, unfortunately, that is true. It seems that the worst is yet to come. Now, despite all the calming of tensions and ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, energy prices are still rising due to the problems in the Strait and America’s naval blockade around Iran.

The worst-case scenario would be if negotiations fail and Trump carries out his threat to destroy all energy facilities in Iran, and Iran, in turn, carries out its threat to target all energy facilities in the Gulf states. Then the world might witness the worst energy crisis in history.

In fact, we have been and are experiencing the worst energy crisis in modern history. There had been three previous oil crises in 1973, 1979, and 1980, and this was the fourth. According to IEA, this is the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market and far exceeds the scale of previous crises.

The current situation is already very bad, and I really hope oil prices do not reach $180 or higher as many analysts are predicting. That would be a disaster for us.


https://fortune.com/2026/04/23/iea-fatih-birol-energy-crisis-iran-war-strait-hormuz-oil-barrels/

[Darker45]

Despite efforts to stabilize it, oil's price would certainly remain volatile because of the uncertain situation in the region. As a matter of fact, the ceasefire doesn't mean much because despite it being in effect, clashes, albeit sporadic, are still happening. The situation remains unstable and so tense that the war could resume any minute.

And it's not just the attacks on warships and other military assets that are pushing the price up. Civilian tankers themselves were attacked as well.

[shinratensei_]

In fact, we have been and are experiencing the worst energy crisis in modern history. There had been three previous oil crises in 1973, 1979, and 1980, and this was the fourth. According to IEA, this is the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market and far exceeds the scale of previous crises.

The current situation is already very bad, and I really hope oil prices do not reach $180 or higher as many analysts are predicting. That would be a disaster for us.

All these things wouldn't be this bad if we are pushing for EV sooner and harder. The world can't afford supply disruption happening in continous period for their oil needs.
Biofuel and EV based engine should be attracting capital right now beside AI but I see no hype whatsoever. Should've focused on converting sugarcane and corn to a usable fuel than being constantly anxious about disruption of oil since it comes to this.