Bitcoin cycle

[hukk]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

If now Bitcoin goes up to new maximums, rather than having another leg down until 4Q 2026, then we would have had only 200 bear days approx, rather than 350-400 bear days as in previous cycles. Significant difference. As Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, the historical 4 year cycle structure would be broken.

They believe it is good. Or perhaps they need that to happen for their highly leveraged businesses to survive. But rather than being good for Bitcoin, it could be very bad.

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

[Oshosondy]

First of all, it is good to know that bitcoin cycle has not been broken yet, only what we have seen is reducing volatility and more adoption, but there was or still is bear phase.

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

Bitcoin has been a store of value like gold. Gold does not have a cycle, but it continued to increase. In conclusion, it can not affect bitcoin in a bad way, but it will be in a positive way.

[EarnOnVictor]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

The simple answer is No!

As a matter of fact, it will be positive for Bitcoin in the long run. See what's happening now, Bitcoin should be persisting in selling if it were before, but due to the cycle that looks broken, it is fighting back higher even in the bearish season. The popularity of this broken cycle will even cause it to happen, if it weren't to be so before.

However, this is not a true testament that Bitcoin's cycle has been broken. As I always say, Bitcoin is still young and experimenting, so it's fair to continue studying it's behaviour over time. This season seems changing truly, but time will surely tell. Above all, a dynamic Bitcoin makes it behave like a true/worthy asset. To achieve this, it shouldn't be truly predictable, which is part of what the broken cycle would achieve.

[NNRR]

If the cycle “breaks,” it’s not necessarily a bad thing.It could actually be a sign that Bitcoin is maturing.

✔️ Short term: more confusion and uncertainty
✔️ Long term: potentially more stable growth, but harder to predict

👉 Bottom line: not bad, but market behavior will change.

[sergiorus]

I think it's just getting less extreme: new highs are now more modest but the corrections (their depth and lenght) are probably gonna be modest too.
eventually the cycle narrative will go away imho, it will move more like s&p500 without extreme gains but steadily up and up with occassional corrections.

[masulum]

I also feel that there will be difference in Bitcoin cycle to reach ATH in this cycle period. Because in previous history, Bitcoin start reversal looks like faster. I not count how many candle, but if we look from 2017, reversal happen in 2019. In 2021, reversal in 2023, while ATH 2025 right now already have reversal sign. So maybe after halving that predicted in 2028, this will directly follow by ATH in the same year. But we all never know if this become positive or negative sentiment, let's see, if 2026 we are closing in around $90K-100K and there is a correction again in 2027, maybe we can see new ATH in 2028, and this will become the fastest cycle in history.

NFA/DYOR

[hd49728]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

The Bitcoin market cycle was not broken as you can see this year is a bearish one so far even Bitcoin price recovered well from bottom, there are still more than a half of year ahead with many uncertainty and possibly the bear market will not end in 2026. If market cycle repeats, even the year of 2027 can be a bearish year but there will be more and stronger recovery signal from bear market bottom in 2027.
Don't trust anyone, the market has its cycle and its own rhythm too so before it has a new cycle, don't change your plans with trust on any "market cycle was broken" conspiracy theory.

In addition, don't time the market as it is very hard task and most people can not do it accurately. Let's focus on your finance for having strong finance so that you can have good discretionary income for your long term accumulation and investment in Bitcoin.

No market cycle was broken with this simple chart.
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/yearly-candlestick-chart

[terrific]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

No, that cycle breaking means that we're not going through a very deep and narrow bear market.

If now Bitcoin goes up to new maximums, rather than having another leg down until 4Q 2026, then we would have had only 200 bear days approx, rather than 350-400 bear days as in previous cycles. Significant difference. As Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, the historical 4 year cycle structure would be broken.

Exactly, that is what they're saying that if the cycle is broken then we'll have to go through with lesser bear days and more with the capitulation and bullish.

They believe it is good. Or perhaps they need that to happen for their highly leveraged businesses to survive. But rather than being good for Bitcoin, it could be very bad.

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

Wrong, it's not a 3 years bull run. A bull run only happens in a year or less than.
But these market changes do happen and not only in crypto but we're waiting for it to happen and we shall adopt once it comes.

[hukk]

Not too impressed with the answers so far to be honest.

Lots of noes, lots of wrongs, but not very thoughtful answers behind the angered responses. Mind the fact that data are contradicting some of those responses indeed.

Sorry if I said something uncomfortable

Think twice about it. It could be much more bullish for Bitcoin to keep its super successful patern, rather than to break it and "be like the SP500" for some time, then we will see. I understand that's what some companies buying bitcoins need, I understand the media noise they create. But in my opinion losing the successful pattern could be a big risk for Bitcoin. Not sure if you guys are not aware of how dangerous it could be, or if you just want to create great hype for Bitcoin short term, no matter what can happen in the long term

Good luck

[Awaklara]

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

I think the market might become unpredictable and deviate from the cycle we usually follow. What is happening right now is certainly influenced by market interest. We cannot continue to manage movements according to the usual cycle. The market is different from a few years ago, and some things may have changed. 
It is possible that the impact will be on price increases that are not as strong as in previous cycles, but possibly more stable in market price growth. No one can control all of this. Everything will move based on market interest.

[Razmirraz]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

It's not necessarily a bad thing if Bitcoin cycle breaks, in fact, it's a sign that Bitcoin is maturing. IMO
Michael Saylor isn't just saying it, but is very hopeful and happy that Bitcoin's cycle will break due to its high leverage. A two-year bear market could cause MicroStrategy a margin call, while a six-month bear market would allow him to sleep soundly. I also see something positive in Saylor narrative, if the 4 year cycle is broken, the correction will be shorter, resulting in faster consolidation, and thus the next Bull Run will start earlier.
So whether or not a cycle break is bad depends on each individual. If you're a cycle trader, you might consider it bad, but if you're a long-term investor, the transition Bitcoin is experiencing will actually be good news.

[programmer3666]

I just feel like most of what’s happening to Bitcoin right now is tied to the mess in the global economy. Things were looking stable before, but all these political moves and unstable policies, especially from powerful leaders like Donald Trump have shaken the markets. It is like one minute there is confidence, next minute everything drops again. So whether the Bitcoin cycle is broken or not, I think the bigger issue is the uncertainty in the world right now. When the economy is unstable, Bitcoin and other markets will always react.

[DPHOR]

Market is always dynamic because you can't be that sure of the market what would happened last and from my observation bitcoin history for last year against this year is quite different from all of the bitcoin halving.
As I know, month of May has never been bullish but just take a look at this year cycle things are happening in different ways which may found it very difficult to comprehend to . Bitcoin nowadays is try to change its performance and make people to be in a more confused state and only those who are that willing to hold for several years before they could pull.off their investments.
I do not think the circle could change or stop entirely, this is what boost the price of Bitcoin to be that volatile that we always preached about.

[sergiorus]

Not too impressed with the answers so far to be honest.

Lots of noes, lots of wrongs, but not very thoughtful answers behind the angered responses. Mind the fact that data are contradicting some of those responses indeed.

Sorry if I said something uncomfortable

Think twice about it. It could be much more bullish for Bitcoin to keep its super successful patern, rather than to break it and "be like the SP500" for some time, then we will see. I understand that's what some companies buying bitcoins need, I understand the media noise they create. But in my opinion losing the successful pattern could be a big risk for Bitcoin. Not sure if you guys are not aware of how dangerous it could be, or if you just want to create great hype for Bitcoin short term, no matter what can happen in the long term

Good luck

there aren't correct or incorrect answers as nobody can know it for sure. what you can hear is opinions and it's kinda weird to criticise opinions especially when you asked for them.

and as for "good scenarios", whether we believe in them or not won't affect whether they will happen or not. we are powerless chatters.

[Cryptomultiplier]

One thing I know is that people think Bitcoin might be dying slowly and predictably but in reality, it is gaining strength that is much needed to achieve its cyclic calculations and that of being a pillar of wealth and hope for the unbanked, globally.
If the cycle stops, that means Bitcoin would have somehow failed to meet its expectations and that of investors.

[ZAINmalik75]

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

It is not bad because the reason you gave of 3 years is not so strong you are worried because there won't be a bull period but there will be and you will be surprised to see that there will even a longer bull period than 3 years. Because super cycles mean a commodity is not going to increase its price over a long period of time. It is only bad for those who wanted to buy lower and every 2 years and sell higher in a bull run, they can't do it anymore if the super cycle starts.

But so far there are no confirm signs of super cycle and you don't have to worry about all these people who are saying super cycle is here and 4 year cycle is going to break because when it will happen you will know. We might not be able to buy lower the next time though if it happens so don't sell and keep holding some of it at least, and if it dumps then buy more for the next bull run. The logic is same, keep accumulating and sell only after a specificed amount you have in mine reached.

[goldkingcoiner]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

If now Bitcoin goes up to new maximums, rather than having another leg down until 4Q 2026, then we would have had only 200 bear days approx, rather than 350-400 bear days as in previous cycles. Significant difference. As Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, the historical 4 year cycle structure would be broken.

They believe it is good. Or perhaps they need that to happen for their highly leveraged businesses to survive. But rather than being good for Bitcoin, it could be very bad.

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

I do not think the cycle is broken just because it does not correlate 1:1 as it did (mostly) in the past. We are seeing a divergence but the pattern is still there. And even if it was not and the cycle as Saylor claims, is indeed no longer, then that does not mean it is bad for Bitcoin. Only it means we are entering a new kind of cycle that we do not completely understand yet. Speculative value stands on one leg.

[Smartprofit]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

If now Bitcoin goes up to new maximums, rather than having another leg down until 4Q 2026, then we would have had only 200 bear days approx, rather than 350-400 bear days as in previous cycles. Significant difference. As Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, the historical 4 year cycle structure would be broken.

They believe it is good. Or perhaps they need that to happen for their highly leveraged businesses to survive. But rather than being good for Bitcoin, it could be very bad.

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

This raises some questions for me. 🙋 Why does Bitcoin need traders' trust for its future development? Or traders' confidence? Let's say traders came up with these "four-year cycles"... They find them convenient to trade. And now it turns out they don't work... Does this mean Bitcoin will die?

Of course not! In my opinion, what matters for Bitcoin's future development isn't traders' confidence, but miners' confidence. Because miners are the ones who secure the Bitcoin network. And miners need confidence that the price of Bitcoin will be higher than the cost of mining. Otherwise, they simply won't have the motivation to mine.

In my opinion, traders shouldn't worry about the future price of Bitcoin at all. Traders make money from volatility. Investors could theoretically be concerned. However, I see no reason to worry if the price of Bitcoin rises to $300,000 in 2026. That's cause for celebration, not concern.  You write as if Bitcoin's high price is a disaster and an obstacle to further price growth. But that's not true at all!

[Jatiluhung]

I don’t think we can judge whether it will be good or bad just because of a shift in the cycle. The 4-year cycle might very well be broken. But I don’t think it’s a problem if a new cycle emerges alongside the increasing adoption we’ve seen more of lately. What’s clear is that institutional and public confidence in Bitcoin is now largely driven by long-term holders, as everyone is beginning to realize that holding Bitcoin is indeed better for the long term. As a result, we see Bitcoin’s support remaining strong enough to withstand downward pressure. Panic selling has always been short-lived lately. And afterward, it seems more people are taking advantage of the situation by accumulating more. So a shift in the cycle might actually have a more positive impact. Because we can’t always rely solely on past cycles. Especially since we’re facing greater adoption, and change is natural.

[Emitdama]

First of all, it is good to know that bitcoin cycle has not been broken yet, only what we have seen is reducing volatility and more adoption, but there was or still is bear phase.

Yes. Bear phase won't be gone because it is a sign that many people have already sold most of their coins (if not all) for a bigger profits. It also during the bull run ( the opposite of the bear market)  is the time they does it the most. I mentioned bull run there, but even this one won't also be gone as long as Bitcoin is still there because many people will surely rebuy again and start another season of their holding journey.

If the cycle “breaks,” it’s not necessarily a bad thing.It could actually be a sign that Bitcoin is maturing.

✔️ Short term: more confusion and uncertainty
✔️ Long term: potentially more stable growth, but harder to predict

Yes. Just like on us human. As a kid, we are still being guided by our parents but the moment we have grown up, we are now starting to become an independent person. When it comes to effect, not just for the short term but as well as for the long term, people may still predict it or at least close to it if what can possibly happen once they get the hang out of things.